November 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

After the first week of November ...

IMT on 8.1 C which is 0.3 below average.

MAX 16.3 and MIN --5.0

PRC 159% of normal, ranged from slightly below in west, to almost three times normal in southeast.

SUN 110% of normal (659/600).

It has been a rather mild start to November, the second half looks equally cold and the net result will probably be close to normal for the month, like NormaL needs any more points.

As a rough guide to how mild, with respect to the CET for the net-weather contest (only temperature and precip there), I calculated some running means for November to the 16th and beyond, only eight years managed to stay 10.0 or higher (as I think this November will do) to the middle of the month, out of 246 in the daily data base. So if this were to be the ninth such year, that's about 3% of the years with this mild a first half (over there anyway, I find pretty close correlation most months). Other years that were running above 10.0 in the second half were 1817, 1818, 1852, 1938, 1978, 1994 and 2011.

I just checked the daily wind gust situation and past few days not quite able to match the top two we've had so far, perhaps today or tomorrow might do so. Unless we get a howling easterly near the end of the month we'll be holding on to see if any storms can break down the block that is apparently developing. Otherwise all three of the contenders might have come and gone by this weekend.

Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 14th)
____________________________________________________________

closest in terms of speed so far (59) __ 59 MrSkinner, 60 (Jpmarn, Artane2002, dasa29), 58 JCXBXC


DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) (3rd)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) (1st)

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) (2nd)
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)

After two weeks ...

IMT now on 8.5, the second week was 8.8 which is 1.1 above normal for the period 8th to 14th. With the second half of the month looking quite cold, if the IMT stays near 8.5 after today, the end of month would be 6.3 if the second half averages 4.0.

MAX still 16.3 (yesterday managed 15.7) and MIN --5.0.

PRC now at 169% of normal after another wet week, 179% of normal. With relatively dry weather in view, this amount so far guarantees an outcome of 80%, while half normal precip from now to end results in an outcome of 105% of normal.

SUN now at 94.5% with this second week a bit on the cloudy side even for November, at 79% (475/600). I won't speculate on how this ends up since, well, it's November and any sort of dry air mass can cloud up in a hurry. But it will probably finish close to normal.

IMT through 24 days has fallen to 7.9, now thinking it will finish a lot higher than 7.0 as earlier estimated because 28th-29th looking milder than current average, may not fall much at all now.

Meanwhile, this is the state of play for the bonus question heading into the final few days and predicted strong winds (mostly 28th-29th). I think to be somewhat more generous on points, if anything from 28th on goes to first place, then we will include all sub-events in that final phase, spread the points out a bit wider, and keep 2nd and 3rd in the places where 1st and 2nd now are. Otherwise we could end up bouncing two of those out and technically most of the field would be then looking at zero timing points. The models are suggesting either 28th or 29th could produce somewhat separated events that gust over 60 knots, we shall see about that. And yes, I do have a tardis, kindred spirit was in it too.


Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 14th)
____________________________________________________________

closest in terms of speed so far (59) __ 59 MrSkinner, 60 (Jpmarn, Artane2002, dasa29), 58 JCXBXC


DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) (3rd) (drops to 4th on 27th)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) (1st) -- stays first for time being 27th

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) (2nd) -- drops to 3rd on 27th
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public (actual was 41) -- 4th highest event so far

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots (preliminary -- max gust 57 knots) -- 2nd for now

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)

Provisional scoring for November 2018

With the MS scheduled for appearing on the 4th, it's a long wait to confirm certain portions of the scoring where we have fairly good estimates. This table can be edited for any changes found in IMT and PRC on 1st. Sunshine percentage will have to wait for the MS for validation, and there's still some uncertainty about the value for the maximum wind gust on the 28th (the timing points are settled). So there are two columns for scoring the wind gust speed, one based on 62 knots, the other on 66. The total scores show the addition using the 62 knot scores, with totals in brackets for 66. Superbonus points are awarded to whichever column has the 6 or 7 in it. This provisional table will be reworked from final values and reposted on the 4th.



FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Max gust, date


Estimated values _____ 7.8_16.3_--5.0_134_105___62 _66 _28th ____ TOTAL


Kindred_Spirit ________ 21 _ 19 _ 18 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 7 _ 5 _ 3 _ +2 ___ 91 (87)

Tae laidir ____________ 24 _ 20 _ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 5 _ 7 _ 1 _______ 85 (87)



Con Sensus __________ 20 _ 19 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08 ____ 7 _ 5 _ 1 _ +1 ____84 (81)


mickger844posts ______ 24 _ 18 _ 14 _ 11 _ 08 ____ 6 _ 5 _ 2 _______ 83 (82)

DOCARCH ___________ 22 _ 14 _ 13 _ 14 _ 10 ____ 7 _ 6 _ 1 _______ 81 (80)

JCXBXC ____ (-2) _____20 _ 17 _ 19 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 4 _ 2 _ 1 __80-2 = 78 (76)

sryanbruen __________24 _ 17 _ 11 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 78 (77)

Artane2002 __________19 _ 16 _ 15 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 2 _______ 76 (74)

sunflower3 __________ 20 _ 18 _ 19 _ 07 _ 08 ____ 2 _ 1 _ 1 _______ 75 (74)

adam240610 ________ 17 _ 18 _ 18 _ 08 _ 10 ____ 3 _ 1 _ 1 _______ 75 (73)

M.T. Cranium ________16 _ 18 _ 15 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 73 (75)

Jpmarn ____________ 13 _ 18 _ 15 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 1 _______ 73 (71)

sdanseo ____________15 _ 13 _ 20 _ 09 _ 07 ____ 7 _ 5 _ 1 _______ 72 (70)

Bsal _______________17 _ 12 _ 20 _ 07 _ 08 ____ 4 _ 6 _ 2 _______ 70 (72)

Rikand ____ (-2) ____ 22 _ 18 _ 15 _ 01 _ 07 ____ 5 _ 7 _ 3+2_71-2=69 (73)

Joe Public __________ 16 _ 14 _ 08 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 6 _ 6 _ 1 _______ 67 (67)

200motels __________25 _ 14 _ 05 _ 11 _ 07 ____ 4 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 67 (66)

john mac ____ (-6) __ 17 _ 16 _ 17 _ 06 _ 08 ____ 5 _ 7 _ 2_+1_71-6=65 (68)

waterways __________20 _ 11 _ 09 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 3 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 65 (66)

Rameire _____ (-2) __ 17 _ 18 _ 12 _ 06 _ 09 ____ 3 _ 2 _ 1 __66-2 = 64 (63)

Pauldry ____________ 22 _ 05 _ 13 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 1 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 64 (65)


Normal ____________ 19 _ 08 _ 20 _ 04 _ 09 ____ 3 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 64 (64)



MrSkinner ___________18 _ 12 _ 15 _ 01 _ 09 ____ 5 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 61 (59)

Dasa29 _____________17 _ 00 _ 15 _ 05 _ 10 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 1 _______ 54 (52)

Dacogawa __ (-4) ____ 21 _ 04 _ 06 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 3 _ 4 _ 1 __ 53-4=49 (50)

BLIZZARD7 _________ 10 _ 04 _ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 38 (40)

_____________________________________________________


The scoring was quite high for November, lots of good guesses for MAX and MIN helped boost the scores.

Kindred Spirit in particular has one of the higher scores we've seen over the past many months and years.

Once we solve the mystery of the maximum gust speed, one of the two columns will be eliminated and one of the two indicated totals will be removed. Also there could be slight changes to the scoring in general, but I think this is pretty close to how it will eventually finish up.

Won't post the annual summary or autumn (and final) four seasons report until final scores are confirmed. Check back around the 4th.

The December thread is open, suggest you get in there soon as the deadline just passed.

---

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust (kts), date


sryanbruen __________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _--4.1 _ 135 _ 090 _____ 52 ______ 7th

200motels ___________7.8 _ 15.7 _--3.5 _ 121 _ 092 _____ 56 ______ 3rd

Tae laidir ____________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _--5.6 _ 128 _ 095 _____ 65 _____ 24th

mickger844posts ______7.7 _ 16.1 _--4.4 _ 121 _ 093 _____ 60 _____ 30th

Pauldry _____________ 7.5 _ 17.8 _--5.7 _ 125 _ 101 _____ 75 _____ 30th

DOCARCH ___________ 7.5 _ 16.9 _--4.3 _ 132 _ 103 _____ 63 _____ 22nd

Rikand ____ (-2) ______7.5 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 65 _____ 27th

Dacogawa __ (-4) ____ 7.4 _ 17.9 _--6.4 _ 150 _ 095 _____ 72 _____ 15th

Kindred_Spirit ________7.4 _ 16.2 _--5.2 _ 125 _ 098 _____ 61 _____ 29th

sunflower3 __________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _--5.1 _ 111 _ 095 _____ 52 ______ 3rd

JCXBXC ____ (-2) ____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _--5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 58 _____ 17th

waterways __________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _--6.1 _ 142 _ 092 _____ 72 _____ 27th


Con Sensus _________ 7.3 _ 16.2 _--5.3 _ 121 _ 097 _____ 61 _____ 3, 7, 30**

Normal _____________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _--5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 72 _____ any*


Artane2002 __________7.2 _ 15.9 _--4.5 _ 120 _ 095 _____ 60 ______ 7th

MrSkinner ___________ 7.1 _ 17.1 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 59 ______ 3rd

Rameire _____ (-2) ___ 7.0 _ 16.5 _--5.8 _ 108 _ 098 _____ 56 _____ 20th

adam240610 _________7.0 _ 16.1 _--5.2 _ 113 _ 105 _____ 54 ______ 3rd

john mac ____ (-6) ___ 7.0 _ 15.9 _--4.7 _ 107 _ 097 _____ 65 _____ 25th

Dasa29 _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _--5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 60 _____ 19th

Bsal ________________7.0 _ 15.5 _--5.0 _ 110 _ 097 _____ 68 ______ 7th

Joe Public ___________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _--6.2 _ 134 _ 089 _____ 64 _____ 21st

M.T. Cranium ________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 70 _____ 29th

sdanseo _____________6.8 _ 17.0 _--5.0 _ 115 _ 088 _____ 61 ______ 3rd

Jpmarn _____________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 140 _ 090 _____ 60 ______ 3rd

BLIZZARD7 __________ 6.3 _ 14.7 _--7.7 _ 127 _ 110 _____73 _____ 13th

Updated Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Nov)

The annual scores are now updated using the second of two optional totals from the November provisional scoring. The max wind gust was confirmed to be 66 knots (the second of two scoring columns in the November bonus section leading to the totals in brackets).

(9/11)
rank _FORECASTER ______ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT_NOV _ TOTAL <-rank _best 9/11

01 _ Pauldry_____________ 73 _ 58 _ 89 _ 48 _ 76 _ 59 _ 78 _ 62 _ 66 _ 62 _ 65 __ 736 __ 01 ____ 630

(02) Con Sensus _________ 73 _ 67 _ 69 _ 51 _ 71 _ 54 _ 84 _ 56 _ 59 _ 64 _ 81 __ 729 __(02)____ 624

T02_ sryanbruen __________56 _ 71 _ 65 _ 60 _ 74 _ 46 _ 85 _ 65 _ 36 _ 66 _ 77 __ 701 __ 03 ____ 619
T02_ waterways __________ 81 _ 34 _ 51 _ 73 _ 76 _ 46 _ 83 _ 64 _ 64 _ 61 _ 66 __ 699 __ 04 ____ 619
04 _ Rikand ______________66 _ 64 _ 62 _ 61 _ 74 _ 65 _ 65 _ 51 _ 59 _ 75 _ 73 __ 715 __ 02 ____ 605

(05) NormaL _____________75 _ 52 _ 48 _ 71 _ 63 _ 31 _ 59 _ 85 _ 79 _ 56 _ 64 __ 683 __(10)____ 604

T05_ Rameire ____________ 52 _ 56 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 44 _ 88 _ 67 _ 67 _ 66 _ 63 __ 695 __ 05 ____ 602
T05_ DOCARCH ___________63 _ 62 _ 75 _ 61 _ 68 _ 42 _ 69 _ 47 _ 67 _ 57 _ 80 __ 691 __ 06 ____ 602
07_ JCXBXC ______________34 _ 72 _ 54 _ 43 _ 77 _ 56 _ 78 _ 75 _ 41 _ 68 _ 76 __ 674 __ 10 ____ 599
08 _ M.T. Cranium _________60 _ 45 _ 52 _ 56 _ 86 _ 49 _ 77 _ 50 _ 75 _ 63 _ 75 __ 688 __ 08 ____ 594
09 _ Dacogawa ___________ 71 _ 67 _ 70 _ 67 _ 63 _ 52 _ 71 _ 50 _ 65 _ 63 _ 50 __ 689 __ 07 ____ 592
10 _ Jpmarn _____________ 71 _ 61 _ 49 _ 57 _ 68 _ 60 _ 81 _ 51 _ 50 _ 67 _ 71 __ 686 __ 09 ____ 587

11 _ Joe Public ___________ 35 _ 62 _ 48 _ 81 _ 61 _ 66 _ 63 _ 56 _ 67 _ 62 _ 67 __ 668 __ 11 ____ 585
12 _ Kindred Spirit ________ 59 _ 56 _ 55 _ 28 _ 66 _ 57 _ 77 _ 48 _ 47 _ 79 _ 87 __ 659 __ 12 ____ 584
13 _ Tae laidir ____________78 _ 53 _ 63 _ 47 _ 61 _ 52 _ 67 _ 69 _ --- _ 53 _ 87 __ 630 __ 16 ____ 578
14 _ mickger844posts ______75 _ 77 _ 69 _ 42 _ 54 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 _ 50 _ 53 _ 82 __ 654 __ 13t____ 571
15 _ MrSkinner ___________ 73 _ 64 _ 72 _ 42 _ 69 _ 36 _ 68 _ 66 _ 41 _ 54 _ 59 __ 644 __ 15 ____ 567
16 _ BLIZZARD7 __________ 27 _ 73 _ 46 _ 70 _ 92 _ 52 _ 48 _ 46 _ 81 _ 55 _ 40 __ 628 __ 17 ____ 565
17 _ sunflower3 ___________68 _ 56 _ 63 _ 58 _ 57 _ 41 _ 65 _ 52 _ 64 _ 56 _ 74 __ 654 __ 13t____ 561
18 _ sdanseo _____________45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 52 _ 57 _ 64 _ 65 _ --- _ 57 _ 58 _ 70 __ 586 __ 21 ____ 541
19 _ john mac ____________48 _ 58 _ 58 _ 42 _ 63 _ 39 _ 67 _ 72 _ 51 _ 46 _ 68 __ 612 __ 18 ____ 531
20 _ 200motels ___________36 _ 65 _ 47 _ 49 _ 85 _ 32 _ 62 _ 37 _ 55 _ 64 _ 66 __ 598 __ 19 ____ 530
21 _ Bsal ________________63 _ 49 _ 71 _ 38 _ 56 _ 34 _ 71 _ 44 _ 50 _ 46 _ 72 __ 594 __ 20 ____ 522
22 _ dasa29 _____________ 69 _ 40 _ 83 _ 43 _ 54 _ 35 _ 57 _ 41 _ 67 _ 41 _ 52 __ 582 __ 22 ____ 507

23 _ Adam240610 ________ --- _ --- _ 56 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ 64 _ 72 _ 51 _ 69 _ 73 __ 385
24 _ Artane2002 __________--- _ --- _ ---_ 59 _ 57 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 50 _ 74 __ 337
25 _ Lumi _______________ 54 _ 54 _ 62 _ --- _ 77 _ 55 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 302
_________________________________________________________________________

Four Seasons 2017-18 contest update

Final Scoring Summary


Points for autumn total score (Sep, Oct, Nov)

-- ties are otherwise acceptable but for top score, a new rule, a tie there is broken by high score in a month, and second place gets 8.

FORECASTER __ Total score __ Points

Kindred Spirit ____213 _______ 10 (tie broken by higher monthly score 87)
M.T. Cranium ____213 ________ 8 (highest score 75 -- 2nd)
rikand _________ 207 ________ 6
DOCARCH ______ 204 ________ 5

__ Con Sensus __ 204 ________ (5)

__ NormaL _____ 199 ________ (4)

Rameire ________196 ________ 4
Joe Public _______196 ________ 3
sunflower3 ______194 ________ 2
Pauldry ________ 193 ________ 1
Adam240610 ____193 ________ 1
waterways ______191 ________ 1
JPmarn ________ 188 ________ --
JCX BXC _______ 185 ________ --
mickger844posts _185 ________ --
sdanseo ________185 ________ --
200motels ______ 185 ________ --
sryanbruen _____ 179 ________ --
dacogawa ______ 178 ________ --
BLIZZARD7 _____ 176 ________ --
Artane2002 _____ 174 ________ --
Bsal ___________ 168 ________ --
john mac _______ 165 ________ --
dasa29 _________160 ________ --
MrSkinner ______ 154 ________ --
tae laidir _______ 140 (2 mo) __ --




(winter, spring and summer seasons points totals)

FORECASTER _________ Winter __ Spring ___ Summer ___ Autumn ____ TOTAL to date

Pauldry _______________ 6 ________10 _______ 7 _______ 1 ________ 24

___ Con Sensus_________4 ________ 1 _______ 4 ________ 5 ________14

JPmarn ______________ 10 ________ -- _______ 3 _______ -- ________ 13
rameire _______________-- ________ 1 ________7 ________ 4 _______ 12
Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ________ -- _______ 1 ________10 _______12
DOCARCH _____________ -- ________6 _______ -- ________ 5 _______ 11

___ NormaL____________7 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 4 _______ 11

rikand ________________1 ________ 2 ________ 1 ________ 6 _______ 10
JCX BXC ______________ -- ________ -- ______ 10 _______ -- _______ 10
Waterways ____________ -- ________ 5 _______ 4 ________1 ________10
Tae laidir ______________7 ________ -- _______ 2 ________-- ________9
M.T. Cranium __________ -- ________ 1 _______ -- ________8 ________9
Dacogawa _____________ 5 ________ 3 _______ -- ________ -- _______8
sryanbruen ____________-- ________ 4 ________ 4 ________-- _______8
BLIZZARD7 ____________-- ________ 7 _______ -- ________ -- _______7
Joe Public _____________ -- ________ 1 _______ 1 ________ 3 _______ 5
mickger844posts _______ 4 ________ -- _______ -- ________ -- _______4
sunflower3 ____________ 2 ________ -- _______ -- ________ 2 _______ 4
MrSkinner _____________3 ________ -- _______ -- ________ -- _______3
John mac _____________ 1 ________ -- _______ -- ________ -- _______1
Adam240610 __________ -- _______ -- ________-- ________ 1 _______ 1

_________________________________________________________________


So it's congratulations to Pauldry, our Four Seasons champ, he had the only four seasons score higher than Con Sensus (2nd), with Jpmarn retaining second place from summer despite a shutout in autumn. Third place goes to rameire and kindred spirit (tied).

The higher points for autumn all seemed to go to forecasters in the middle of the pack when summer finished, which is why the scoring race has become quite a logjam especially just behind the leaders.

The 2018-19 Four Seasons contest begins with December so bazlers, if you read this, you're in the hunt.