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July 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • 28-06-2018 9:51pm
    #1
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭


    With all the interest in the heat wave, I almost forgot to post a July contest thread.

    Here we go then ...

    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2018. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.5 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

    6. BONUS ... Predict the max temp in the 25 stations reporting for yesterday's weather section of the met.ie website on Friday 6th of July and location. Points will be seven for your temperature forecast, and three for location, where you get all three for right location, two for picking second or third warmest, and one for picking any station that beats or ties Markree (not added to higher scores even if valid, e.g., you pick the right location and it beats Markree, still only three points for thee). If no location chosen beats Markree then we all score zero unless somebody picks Markree then they would score one or more. Superbonus of 2 for (7+3) and 1 for (6+3 or 7+2).

    Deadline for entries 0300h Sunday 1st of July, then 1 point deducted for every four hours late to 0300h 3rd July, then 1 point per hour.

    Good luck !!! and stay cool (this is easy for me, 15 C max here today). :pac:


«13

Comments

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    #2
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Must not over-compensate for underestimating June!!


    sdanseo ____ 17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 __ 27.1 Oak Park


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    #3
    Bsal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal____ 16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 __ 26.0 Mount Dillon


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    #4
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 50 _ 120 __ 25.2 Oak Park

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #5
    adam240610
    Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭adam240610


    adam240610 15.9_29.1_6.8_060_120_26.2 Mt. Dillon

    Been too busy to enter any of the recent ones


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    #6
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,877 ✭✭✭pauldry


    pauldry ____ 16.9 _ 31 _ 3.8 _ 82 _ 113 __25 Oak Park


    ill forget this if I dont enter now as swimming in the sea non stop (id hate to live in the midlands). Ive missed most of World Cup too recently.


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    #7
    sunflower3
    Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭sunflower3


    sunflower3 ____ 17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 75 _ 125 __26 Oak Park


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    #8
    dasa29
    Registered Users Posts: 549 ✭✭✭dasa29


    dasa29 ____ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 55 _ 130 __26 Shannon


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    #9
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac____ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 __ 26.1 Mt Dillon


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    #10
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 79 _ 139 __ 28.9 Mt Dillon


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    #11
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 45 _ 165 __ 26.7 Oak Park


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    #12
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    MTC _____________ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 __ 28.9 Casement


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    #13
    200motels
    Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels
    16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 70 _ 145 __ 28.8 Mt Dillon


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    #14
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭waterways


    dried-out-waterways _____________ 17.2_ 27.4 _ 5.0_ 076 _ 111 __ 25.4 Shannon


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    #15
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 16.9 ___ 31.0 ___ 5.0 ___ 70 ___ 135 ___ 26.0 Shannon.

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



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    #16
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 72 _ 110 __26.2 Moore Park

    Going hot as I'd like it to cool down a tad... :D


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    #17
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____________ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 __ 27.9 Oak Park


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    #18
    rameire
    Registered Users Posts: 4,114 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire____ 16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 __ 25.5 Oak Park

    Just checking, you say the weather on yesterdays weather on met.ie on Friday 6th July,
    does this mean the reporting of Thursdays weather on the Friday reports, or am i thinking too much into this and its the Friday weather that will be reported in the yesterdays weather, or have i just ruined your plan?

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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    #19
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,105 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    JCX_BXC 17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 __ 26.3 Shannon.

    Almost forgot!


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    #20
    mrskinner
    Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner_____17.2_____30.6_____4.1______80______140_______27.8°Shannon


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    #21
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,340 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Rikand ____ 17.0 ____ 32.0 ____ 4.0 ____ 80 ____ 130 ____ 28.0 Mt Dillon


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    #22
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 75 _ 125 __ 23.5 Shannon


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    #23
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 17.7_ 33.0c _ 5.3c_ 047 _ 125 __ 28.8c Oak Park


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    #24
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    rameire wrote: »
    Rameire____ 16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 __ 25.5 Oak Park

    Just checking, you say the weather on yesterdays weather on met.ie on Friday 6th July,
    does this mean the reporting of Thursdays weather on the Friday reports, or am i thinking too much into this and its the Friday weather that will be reported in the yesterdays weather, or have i just ruined your plan?

    That would be genius devious :D


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    #25
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Oh crap, I worded that poorly. I meant to ask for the max on Friday 6th July as reported in the yesterday's weather section on 7th.

    If anyone sincerely thought I meant Thursday 5th and wants to change, post your revision. Thank this post if your entry refers to 6th as intended. I will contact anyone who has done neither of those by 3rd.


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    #26
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 708 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 40 _ 128 __ 24.8 Mullingar

    Looks like extra time and penalties!


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    #27
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first, IMT was 17.1 C, MAX 26.9 (OP) and MIN 8.5 (Dub, Cas).

    PRC 0.8 mm (at Belmullet) or about 3% for the grid, and SUN about 160% of normal.


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    #28
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts -- July 2018


    FORECASTER _______IMT _ MAX _MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 6th _ loc'n


    BLIZZARD7 ________ 17.7 _ 33.0 _ 5.3 _ 047 _ 125 ___ 28.8 __ Oak Park

    mickger844posts ____ 17.5 _ 31.1 _ 5.5 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 27.9 __ Oak Park

    john mac __________ 17.5 _ 29.4 _ 5.8 _ 060 _ 135 ___ 26.1 __ Mount Dillon

    MrSkinner _________ 17.2 _ 30.6 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 140 ___ 27.8 __ Shannon

    sunflower3 _________17.2 _ 30.4 _ 7.0 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 26.0 __ Oak Park

    waterways _________17.2 _ 27.4 _ 5.0 _ 076 _ 111 ___ 25.4 __ Shannon

    M.T. Cranium ______ 17.1 _ 30.1 _ 4.5 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 28.9 __ Casement

    sdanseo ___________17.0 _ 33.4 _ 3.8 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 27.1 __ Oak Park

    Dacogawa _________ 17.0 _ 32.2 _ 4.3 _ 072 _ 110 ___ 26.2 __ Moore Park

    Rikand ____________17.0 _ 32.0 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 28.0 __ Mount Dillon

    dasa29 ___________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 8.0 _ 055 _ 130 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

    JCX_BXC __________17.0 _ 30.4 _ 3.9 _ 070 _ 130 ___ 26.3 __ Shannon


    Consensus ________ 17.0 _ 31.0 _ 4.5 _ 070 _ 125 ___ 26.2 __ OP 3, Mtd, Shan 2, others 1*


    Bsal ______________16.9 _ 31.8 _ 4.0 _ 060 _ 133 ___ 26.0 __ Mount Dillon

    Kindred Spirit ______ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 5.0 _ 070 _ 135 ___ 26.0 __ Shannon

    Joe Public _________ 16.9 _ 31.9 _ 3.9 _ 079 _ 139 ___ 28.9 __ Mount Dillon

    pauldry ___________ 16.9 _ 31.0 _ 3.8 _ 082 _ 113 ___ 25.0 __ Oak Park

    200motels _________16.8 _ 32.5 _ 5.2 _ 070 _ 145 ___ 28.8 __ Mount Dillon

    Jpmarn ___________ 16.8 _ 30.5 _ 4.6 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 23.5 __ Shannon

    sryanbruen ________ 16.8 _ 28.4 _ 3.6 _ 050 _ 120 ___ 25.2 __ Oak Park

    Rameire ___________16.7 _ 31.1 _ 4.5 _ 068 _ 123 ___ 25.5 __ Oak Park

    Tae laidir ___ (-6) ___16.7 _ 30.0 _ 3.8 _ 040 _ 128 ___ 24.8 __ Mullingar

    DOCARCH _________ 16.6 _ 29.8 _ 5.1 _ 045 _ 165 ___ 26.7 __ Oak Park

    adam240610 _______15.9 _ 29.1 _ 6.8 _ 060 _ 120 ___ 26.2 __ Mount Dillon


    NormaL ___________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 23.0 _ see text below
    ______________________________________________________________________________


    NormaL for the daily max is set at 23.0 since most stations have average near 20, and normally some location would hit 23.

    Scoring for NormaL location will be obvious locations 3, frequent locations 2, sometimes locations 1, and almost never in July locations 0.

    * Scoring for Consensus location will depend on most popular choices, 3 for Oak Park, 2 for Mount Dillon or Shannon, 1 for any other chosen, and 0 for any location not chosen (this was noted in the table later and that caused the second edit at 1355h 4th).

    __ (choices so far, 8 for Oak Park, 6 each for Shannon and Mountdillon, 1 each for Casement, Mullingar, and Moore Park)


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    #29
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Was Monday a bank holiday there? I was expecting to find the June MS but it hasn't appeared today.

    July updates ... IMT on 17.4 after two days, the average on 2nd was 17.6

    MAX now 27.1 (Moorepark and Oak Park) with the MIN at 6.3 (Markree), both extremes from 1st were improved on 2nd.

    No measurable rainfall anywhere, leaves the month at 2% for the contest grid.

    SUN continues its Iberian rampage, 83.0 hours or about 250%, month now at 205%.


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    #30
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Was Monday a bank holiday there? I was expecting to find the June MS but it hasn't appeared today.

    July updates ... IMT on 17.4 after two days, the average on 2nd was 17.6

    MAX now 27.1 (Moorepark) with the MIN at 6.3 (Markree), both extremes from 1st were improved on 2nd.

    No measurable rainfall anywhere, leaves the month at 2% for the contest grid.

    SUN continues its Iberian rampage, 83.0 hours or about 250%, month now at 205%.

    It's out now M.T.

    https://cli.fusio.net/cli/bulletin/data/2018/06/sum_062018.pdf

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #31
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay thanks, they were later than usual with it, probably adding up all those sunshine hours. :)

    The provisional scores are the final scores ... all temp data confirmed, PRC was actually 36% (same outcome for scoring) and sunshine averaged 8.02 hours a day at the six stations, the mean is 5.5, so the percentage is closer to 145% than my estimate of 140%. I will leave the sunshine scoring alone since the only other alternative is to drop everyone by one point, and the June scoring is already rather low.

    So that being said, the table back a few posts from the end of the June thread is our final scoring, and it's on to the annual update ...

    will edit that in as you sleep (or toss in the searing heat) ...

    and will copy this report to the June thread where it actually belongs.


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