Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/ryanair-earnings-q2-2020.html
2min25 in to the video clip: Michael O'Leary talking about pent up demand with hard numbers/details of how bookings go up when locations are added to Green List. His example was the Canaries/UK

I think there is huge ‘pent up demand’. Almost everyone is missing travel (maybe not all business travel - a lot of that is gone forever), but many people are still not prepared to travel in this environment. Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow, there’s a large cohort of people who wouldn’t be comfortable travelling.
But there are still restrictions - more of them as the virus surges again, so the prospect of a ‘green list’ having any meaningful impact on numbers in the near future is remote I think.
Winter will be bleak. The best we can hope for is that airlines will break even next summer. And if they don’t, it’s hard to see them survive.
There’s some comfort in not seeing the rise in deaths quite mirroring the rise in case numbers - that’s probably a reflection on much more testing now than earlier in the pandemic, so more people with mild/no symptoms are adding to the numbers, but will never be in hospitalisation/death stats. Together with a vaccine, that might give people confidence to travel next year. I honestly don’t think I’ll see the lofty ambitions of 2019 before the end of my career - or to be more correct - if my airline are one of the lucky ones still standing when the dust settles.

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

I think there is huge ‘pent up demand’. Almost everyone is missing travel (maybe not all business travel - a lot of that is gone forever), but many people are still not prepared to travel in this environment. Even if all restrictions were lifted tomorrow, there’s a large cohort of people who wouldn’t be comfortable travelling.
But there are still restrictions - more of them as the virus surges again, so the prospect of a ‘green list’ having any meaningful impact on numbers in the near future is remote I think.
Winter will be bleak. The best we can hope for is that airlines will break even next summer. And if they don’t, it’s hard to see them survive.
There’s some comfort in not seeing the rise in deaths quite mirroring the rise in case numbers - that’s probably a reflection on much more testing now than earlier in the pandemic, so more people with mild/no symptoms are adding to the numbers, but will never be in hospitalisation/death stats. Together with a vaccine, that might give people confidence to travel next year. I honestly don’t think I’ll see the lofty ambitions of 2019 before the end of my career - or to be more correct - if my airline are one of the lucky ones still standing when the dust settles.

I don't have the numbers that O'Leary had access to but my gut feeling would suggest he is correct. As soon as it's safe, there will be a flood away on holidays. A leisure focussed airline with deep pockets, like Ryanair, will be best poised to capitalise on the opportunities 2021 present. If there is the vaccine that we all hope for.

I know others above have mentioned how their companies plan to take to the skies once again after the pandemic has ended and I believe business will of course fly again - just not at the same volume and this will be the challenge for the older brands like BA. The reason is that premium seats are responsible for over half of these airlines revenue - so changes in demand in this segment get amplified.

One poster above said that their company has started to tread water effectively due to the lack of travel but I would certainly think that is the minority. The same happened in our organisation i.e. it somewhat stalled in late March/April but the new reality and systems were established and working by May and business has largely gone back to normal sans travel. I cannot see the old way of working ever returning completely

trellheim wrote: »

Make no mistake there will be a massive surge on to get people back travelling. Many industries depend on it.

Without insurance though all bar the least risky trips will not go ahead though. Imagine taking a family to Orlando and the theme parks without insurance ; any coronavirus cancellations are not claimable under 261 and without insurance its all out of your own pocket with many hotels closed.

Lots of industry doors indeed depend on travel, but as I've said before it was once thought that a lot of other business needed travel to enable their business - say pharma manufacturing.

While it is true that business will obviously need to return to some travel, the prevailing idea that all travel that was previously undertaken was necessary has been blown out of the water. The manager from London doesn't need to make that trip to the plant in Cork to meet people or the team as much anymore. Business will see that as an expense to be trimmed and and the time lost as efficiency to be gained.

There is no going back, to think otherwise is wishful imo. The fastest to adapt to this will be the ones that thrive - and those that don't focus on premium and have cash would be best placed imo.

Tony holohan telling us all today, via the government, to forget about travel in the near future. It's incredible how many jobs nphet are willing to jeopardize/lose forever over this great fear of overrun hospitals. I think 2021 is going to be disastrous for our industry. I'm losing hope daily that our facility will survive despite all the cost cutting that had taken place since this started.

Dublinflyer wrote: »

And this is exactly why the government need to get their aviation, and travel generally, house in order. People are going to come home for Christmas by any way they can. Tony can sit there and say what he wants but there is nothing stopping people from coming into the country once they say that they are going to isolate for 2 weeks and we all know that's not going to happen. I think they are being a bit naive if they think anyone is going to listen to travel advise for Christmas day. We have all had a $h1t year between isolation, losing jobs and everything else. Everyone will want to be around family and friends on Dec 25th so the sooner they realise that and plan for it the better.

What do you mean by get their house in order? Is it just cave to the demands of the travel sector?

Yes we've all had a **** year, but one sure way of making 2021 starts **** as well is to ignore the public health advice at Christmas.

Dublinflyer wrote: »

And this is exactly why the government need to get their aviation, and travel generally, house in order. People are going to come home for Christmas by any way they can. Tony can sit there and say what he wants but there is nothing stopping people from coming into the country once they say that they are going to isolate for 2 weeks and we all know that's not going to happen. I think they are being a bit naive if they think anyone is going to listen to travel advise for Christmas day. We have all had a $h1t year between isolation, losing jobs and everything else. Everyone will want to be around family and friends on Dec 25th so the sooner they realise that and plan for it the better.

Flights should ramp up from 14th December to get people home for Christmas and allow people to come back to see family they haven't seen all year.

Holohan definitely won't be easing restrictions for Travel anytime soon, will be lucky if the current Level 5 will be eased by then..
While NPHETs policy won't change people will still come home to Ireland for the holidays and others will leave, probably not to return...

opinionated3 wrote: »

But what's the solution? They've already more or less admitted we'll probably be back in full lockdown again by February...... Which means more catastrophic job losses in aviation as well as other industries. It's easy for holohan to pontificate.... His job is well paid and safe. What happened to the living with covid plan? Cos what's going on at the moment is just existing with restrictions.....I certainly wouldn't call it living.

Those that are calling for an alternative way need to propose the solution. And before it's mentioned, rapid antigen tests are not a solution at the moment because they fall to detect asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases.
Instead of pulling against the measures, everyone impacted should be pulling with, pulling to get us back to orange and green so travel can resume.

opinionated3 wrote: »

But what are nphets parameters for allowing travel? What are the exact numbers/stats required so that, for example, my wife and I could go to, say, Portugal on a two week holiday, and return home and go to work as normal? They aren't able to define that and therein lies the essential problem for aviation. I won't book any flights anywhere whilst believing I may have to complete a 14 day quarantine when I come home. That's just not realistic or doable for most working people.

NPHET don't set policy, they only advise Government. The numbers that permit travel are the incidence/1000 in the country you are coming from and the country you are travelling to. With green and orange levels, as per the traffic light system, travel can reopen.

Government cannot give the certainty you require because it is not possible. They do not know what the situation is going to be like with any certainty in this country at any point in the future, let alone the kind of horizons needed to plan and book a holiday. The same goes for any country you might travel to.

Some on the forum think seen to think these issues are unique to Ireland, that it's our governments incompetence that's the cause of this. This is rather strange in an aviation forum, which should have a more global perspective than most. These are the challenges that every country faces. Every country is trying to square public health needs with what are largely public travel desires.

Just because this is unpalatable doesn't make it any less true.

I wish Tony 'd just ...uck off... He' should be held to accounts for his dramatic failure with cervical cancer and attempts to cover it up...

Deleted User wrote: »

antigen tests are a very legitimate solution when there is slack w.r.t. ICU spaces in Hospitals.
You seem to be intent on deflecting from the Health Service's adject inability to deliver sufficient ICU spaces.

I'm not deflecting from the lack of capacity in the health service, it happens every year and this time the health service has been found out with it's pants down. But being unhappy with that changes nothing, we have the capacity we have and that's what we have to work with.

It takes years to build up ICU capacity, not six months. The most that could've been fine was to add a handful of extra beds - which was done. You simply cannot magic the equipment and more importantly the trained staff to man them out of thin air - anyone involved in a highly specialized sector such as aviation should be able to grasp that.

There is no slack with the hospitals ICU. The only spare capacity is surge capacity and then you are into postponing and cancelling non-covid treatments.

California Dreamer wrote: »

.......wanders in looking for aviation stuff.......nothing here........ :P

So, Emirates flying 4 x A380's and a triple 7 into London on Wednesday... maybe a lot of people coming and going before the lockdown?

Deleted User wrote: »

You are excusing the Health Services if you not able to reconcile roughly 30 beds as opposed to 5 beds per 100,000 population. Ireland is spending similar amounts or more on Health in purchasing power parity terms as Germany and France for many, many years. This did not happen overnight.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PP.CD

You are happy to see them close down the country indefinitely because the Health Services are not fit for purpose and to hell with the cost to others.

I'm especially cranky today as my flights for a few weeks from now have been cancelled and Holohan is telling the press that visiting family is not a legitimate reason to visit Ireland at Christmas.

Again, I’m not excusing anything, I’m just dealing with reality, and there is zero point in getting exercised about stuff, like the number of ICU beds, that is not controllable, at least within the required timeframe.

Don’t mistake my pragmatism with happiness btw. And I win on the crankiness scale too - my job depends on things going back to normal. I’ve had f all normal work since this whole thing kicked off, and I miss it. I want to get flying again more than you do, believe me.