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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    snow ghost wrote: »
    Nacho, in regards to snow, earlier today was probably the best chance we had for a white out - with the major atlantic precip hitting the cold. The cold dry air in recent weeks wasn't that great except for some moderate snow showers.

    I believe we could still get such a scenario before the winter is out.. the cold might be so prolonged or intense this time but it could do the job with regards to turning the atlantic precip into a major snowfall.

    I hope! ;)

    we could, but as you said yourself the best snowfall is the one that is not expected - and its quite rare - as we've seen over the years. with this in mind no matter what wintryness maybe forecast for the rest of this winter, i am fairly positive it will not match what happened today in terms of length and sheer intensity- i've not seen snowfall that heavy before and accompanied by such strong winds either. as i type this it's still snowing(albeit lightly now)- that's close on 13 hours of non-stop snow. it's incredible and memorable.

    so assuming, as is likely the case, we are now locked into a regime of mild south-westerlies for a few weeks, i'm still confident that we'll still see the odd day or two of snow before the middle of march but it will be insignificant compared to yesterday.

    i'd love to be proven wrong - and please feel to bring up/remind me of this post if I am:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    These past two winters may not be remembered as "epic" but at least they showed up to play.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 13 January, 2010
    _______________________________

    TODAY, leftover moisture from Tuesday's stormy weather will continue to dawdle northeast through central and eastern Ireland as well as Ulster and drop variable amounts of sleet, wet snow and cold rain, amounts will generally be 2-5 cms of snow or 2-5 mms of rain but there has been a heavier cluster embedded that could reactivate around Louth possibly. The rest of the country will likely stay overcast with brief breaks possible, and considerable fog or mist as snow continues to melt rather slowly. Western counties could see a few drizzly showers with snow possible over higher ground. Highs will be in the range of 1-3 C east and 3-5 C in the west although 5-7 C is possible in Kerry and nearby parts of Limerick and Cork, over to Waterford.

    TONIGHT will continue rather cool and foggy with some patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with snow grains. Lows will be generally -3 to -1 C but could fall a bit lower if it clears up substantially (then really dense fog could develop later).

    THURSDAY will be a milder day with a freshening southerly wind, a few spits of rain and variable amounts of cloud, highs near 8 C west to 4 C northeast.

    FRIDAY is likely to become very mild with strong southerly winds developing. Periods of rain will move in rather gradually and become heavy late in the day. Highs will be 11-13 C at lower elevations, to 4-7 C higher up, and whatever snow is left will melt quickly. Rainfalls could reach 25-50 mms and winds SSE 35-55 mph. Severe flooding will have to be a concern given all these variables.

    SATURDAY will stay very mild with the rain moving east and ending by mid-day west to east, temperatures staying in the 7-11 C range then falling off by evening. Winds will drop off to SW then NW 10-20 mph.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking colder but still near seasonal averages with highs of about 7-8 C and lows near freezing. There may be some sleety showers at times, as well as brief sunny intervals.

    By about TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY, Russia may be sending another gift to the people of western Europe, and unfortunately, it's not free natural gas. This outbreak looks a bit subdued on the charts but it won't be far from freezing by day and possibly -5 C at night if this materializes. With east winds, there may be a return of at least some light snow. It has the look of a 2-3 day event likely to be followed by another surge of mild Atlantic weather. This fits with the general concept of a strong wind and rain event around the 26-27 January "northern max" lunar event and the 30 January full moon. If we don't happen to see an end to the renewed cold before those, count on some really wintry weather, but my money's on mild, windy weather then (so far). I should probably check with Joe, Ken and Nostradamus (and Danno for sure). :cool:

    It continues to be unreasonably warm here, with a light rain at times, 12-13 C even at this time of the night (going on 9 p.m.) ... updates later.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Thank you for this.. I am trying to plan my "Great Escape.."

    Friday may still be a little soon given the state of the road.. Hoping still OK Monday.. Need the bank so Saturday is no use...

    Wednesday, 13 January, 2010
    _______________________________

    TODAY, leftover moisture from Tuesday's stormy weather will continue to dawdle northeast through central and eastern Ireland as well as Ulster and drop variable amounts of sleet, wet snow and cold rain, amounts will generally be 2-5 cms of snow or 2-5 mms of rain but there has been a heavier cluster embedded that could reactivate around Louth possibly. The rest of the country will likely stay overcast with brief breaks possible, and considerable fog or mist as snow continues to melt rather slowly. Western counties could see a few drizzly showers with snow possible over higher ground. Highs will be in the range of 1-3 C east and 3-5 C in the west although 5-7 C is possible in Kerry and nearby parts of Limerick and Cork, over to Waterford.

    TONIGHT will continue rather cool and foggy with some patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with snow grains. Lows will be generally -3 to -1 C but could fall a bit lower if it clears up substantially (then really dense fog could develop later).

    THURSDAY will be a milder day with a freshening southerly wind, a few spits of rain and variable amounts of cloud, highs near 8 C west to 4 C northeast.

    FRIDAY is likely to become very mild with strong southerly winds developing. Periods of rain will move in rather gradually and become heavy late in the day. Highs will be 11-13 C at lower elevations, to 4-7 C higher up, and whatever snow is left will melt quickly. Rainfalls could reach 25-50 mms and winds SSE 35-55 mph. Severe flooding will have to be a concern given all these variables.

    SATURDAY will stay very mild with the rain moving east and ending by mid-day west to east, temperatures staying in the 7-11 C range then falling off by evening. Winds will drop off to SW then NW 10-20 mph.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking colder but still near seasonal averages with highs of about 7-8 C and lows near freezing. There may be some sleety showers at times, as well as brief sunny intervals.

    By about TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY, Russia may be sending another gift to the people of western Europe, and unfortunately, it's not free natural gas. This outbreak looks a bit subdued on the charts but it won't be far from freezing by day and possibly -5 C at night if this materializes. With east winds, there may be a return of at least some light snow. It has the look of a 2-3 day event likely to be followed by another surge of mild Atlantic weather. This fits with the general concept of a strong wind and rain event around the 26-27 January "northern max" lunar event and the 30 January full moon. If we don't happen to see an end to the renewed cold before those, count on some really wintry weather, but my money's on mild, windy weather then (so far). I should probably check with Joe, Ken and Nostradamus (and Danno for sure). :cool:

    It continues to be unreasonably warm here, with a light rain at times, 12-13 C even at this time of the night (going on 9 p.m.) ... updates later.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    If we don't happen to see an end to the renewed cold before those, count on some really wintry weather, but my money's on mild, windy weather then (so far). I should probably check with Joe, Ken and Nostradamus (and Danno for sure). :cool: .

    I just asked the now resident West Clare groan/moan/rumble monster about it MT. He is not too sure but is very excited about the prospects of scaring the bejaysus out of me again if it does happen.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    we could, but as you said yourself the best snowfall is the one that is not expected - and its quite rare - as we've seen over the years. with this in mind no matter what wintryness maybe forecast for the rest of this winter, i am fairly positive it will not match what happened today in terms of length and sheer intensity- i've not seen snowfall that heavy before and accompanied by such strong winds either. as i type this it's still snowing(albeit lightly now)- that's close on 13 hours of non-stop snow. it's incredible and memorable.

    so assuming, as is likely the case, we are now locked into a regime of mild south-westerlies for a few weeks, i'm still confident that we'll still see the odd day or two of snow before the middle of march but it will be insignificant compared to yesterday.

    i'd love to be proven wrong - and please feel to bring up/remind me of this post if I am:D


    Nacho,

    In my experience, extreme weather like a stray dog has a habit of pretending it's leaving only to turn up on your doorstep again not too long afterwards.

    Don't be suprised if the recent rabid cold, that snapped at Ireland, comes back for a bigger bite when we're least expecting it. :pac:;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 873 ✭✭✭InKonspikuou2


    M.T. Cranium.

    Did you live in Ireland before or are you just interested in the weather here? Curious because you really go into a lot of detail and obviously spend a lot of time on your forecasts. Which are rarely wrong and why i use them as my main source. Anyways thanks and keep up the good work.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    M.T

    I really appreciate your forecast over the cold snap your detail and your very high accuracy in predicting the weather. I for one and all who visit thank you for your time and effort you put in. I will be calling in on a daily basis to check your daily postings that i can rely on in confidence not like those Muppet's in M.E.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Being fair to ME, they have far more pressure and politics to contend with than MT. Not belittling MT of course.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    ch750536 wrote: »
    Being fair to ME, they have far more pressure and politics to contend with than MT. Not belittling MT of course.

    True! very true. All i am going to say is M.E are are not very good with there predictions in cold weather it has happened before and this year and it will happen again.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Since ye asked ...

    I have spent the grand total of two weeks in Ireland, twas in the winter of 1978 which for some unknown reason came in the latter half of June.

    Highlight ... I watched the finals of the 1978 World Cup in a hotel lounge in Westport. I regret not going further up the west coast on that trip, everything was quite enchanting all around the trip despite some foul weather.

    I have Irish roots having been born with the surname O'Donnell but due to adoption at birth my meat-world last name is Smith and I guess it's too late to do anything about this now, but I was born in the UK. Parents decided to emigrate to Canada early on (1957) and I lived in Ontario most of these past many years, moving out to the west coast here in 1995.

    I have a long-standing interest in climate research and long-range forecasting as well as severe weather forecasting and could be described as a renegade or maverick forecaster, my training is that of a "climatologist" instead of meteorologist (up go the eyebrows in certain places) but I lucked into a four-year practicum at private forecasting companies in my youth, back in the good old days when you had to draw your own maps and gaze at maps pinned on an office wall. If they knew then what we would have now ... it's amazing to me the information revolution, and quite frankly, forecasting has only edged forward a little bit, mainly because the computer maps are better in days 2 to 5 than in the 1970s. The first day forecasts probably haven't improved much at all.

    Anyway, how I got to be here on boards.ie is like this ... about 2005, I realized that my North American research needed some real-time expansion to Atlantic and European research, so I started poking around on the intertoobs, found the government websites of course, and net-weather as well as the old BBC forum which has gone defunct I believe. From net-weather I launched out into a smaller forum called weatherchat which is really a sort of refuge from bigger internet forums for weather weenies such as ourselves, happened to meet Darkman who has since dropped out of sight on boards (but was active in 2009) who told me how great boards.ie was, and he was right ... this is a terrific forum, I mean both the weather part of it and the larger forum, I'm not sure if any other country has anything quite like it.

    So I approach all this as a learning experience that benefits my research, which sadly is looking like a pass-off to somebody younger around 2020 when I start losing what's left of my faculties, because with the global warming frenzy in the mainstream community, alternative research (I'm a sort of kinder, gentler Ken Ring) has about as much chance of being funded as Slovenia has of winning the World Cup. (Go Slovenia)

    Now, when I started on this weather forum, I just mostly lurked and picked up all sorts of interesting details, then the forecasting contest here seemed in danger of lapsing so I volunteered to take it on, realized that there was a sort of vacuum in terms of day to day forecasts here, but never thinking that it would reach out beyond the forum regulars (who have extensive forecasting ability that I try to draw on in challenging situations, anything good you might have to say about boards forecasting must be extended to the group because I pick their brains for ideas whether they know it or not just by reading their comments and threads ... any shortcomings on the other hand fall on me entirely, so it's not share the blame).

    Anyway, lucky there's no real weather today ... through this whole process I have had to upgrade my knowledge of Ireland's geography considerably, it was never that bad I suppose being a geographer by inclination, but you know how it is when you've spent two weeks in a country and grasped the essentials from maps, there are many, many details that you don't perceive and I am still picking them up one by one. It certainly makes my concept of the ideal three-week Irish holiday (a hazy objective for the time frame 2012 to 2015) much different from the average tourist's plans (and even the first time I was not really your average tourist).

    I've said this before maybe on another thread, but what I really enjoy on this forum is the banter and the good humour in general, just the user names alone are worth the price of admission. I'm active on net-weather in a lesser sort of way, and while it's generally friendly there, this forum is considerably better on that score ... now I feel this winter especially, it is beginning to catch up on the technical side with all the excellent threads that the weather folks put up for general viewing (and I don't have anything to do with that, it would have happened anyway).

    As to "being Irish" that's a sort of interesting point for me, I grew up thinking I was 100% English and as such an English immigrant to Canada, but I seemed to gravitate towards Irish friends. Then I discovered due to the inheritance of legal documents that I had the O'Donnell background so this rather suddenly (at age 22) established that I was perhaps half or even fully Irish in terms of genetic background (you never know for sure with Irish surnames in England of course). I'm not one of those people who "has to know" all about such things, so I prefer the mystery of ambiguity (and I'm sure the O'Donnells do as well).

    I'm not really up on Irish culture as much as some, but I developed an interest in Irish literature in my youth, so that's another tie I have with your country. I also play golf, and that's yet another reason to want to visit Ireland again some time before, well, you know, before I lose my short game.

    This past month I have put a lot of time into the forecasts mostly because I'm determined to understand what seems quite complicated, and you never get to a point where you're fully satisfied of course. But given that I was already working on UK forecasts for the other site and following the developments for my research interests, this has not involved a lot of extra work beyond the actual production of said forecasts.

    Hope that's not too much information, now back to our regularly scheduled programming, a film entitled "They Came for Wolfe at Midnight."


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,462 ✭✭✭Queen-Mise


    Wednesday, 13 January, 2010
    _______________________________

    TODAY, leftover moisture from Tuesday's stormy weather will continue to dawdle northeast through central and eastern...

    Just had to highlight that word, it not one you hear on weather forecasts too often :p:p:p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Hope that's not too much information, now back to our regularly scheduled programming, a film entitled "They Came for Wolfe at Midnight."

    hehe ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭paulhac


    Thanks for your post M.T. I enjoyed reading it as I do all your posts. It must be something about the M.T. wit thats evident in all your posts that helps keep people interested in what you write not to mention your skill at forecasting and even if you are not fully born and bred Irish your still most welcome here on Boards
    Thanks
    Paul


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    paulhac wrote: »
    even if you are not fully born and bred Irish your still most welcome here on Boards
    Thanks
    Paul

    :confused: Glad to see we have allowed foreigners on boards!:confused:

    Boards is for everyone, no matter if they are from west clare, west yorkshire or west mars.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Ah, I don't think Paul meant anything there Wolfe. Taken in isolation that comment might be interpreted as "Ah sure we let the foreigners post here on boards" A bit patronising alright :D but in context with parts of MTCraniums post where he talks about his 50%English/50%Irish/50%Canadian background :D and not really knowing exactly what that makes him, then that changes the possible interpretations of Pauls comment. "Doesn't matter what you are MT, all are welcome on boards." ie. basically what you said in the last sentance of your post.

    I agree with everything Paul said about MT. Quite often genius like MT's is accompanied by a dry cold personality and an almost asbergers narrow focus. "Just the facts Maam"

    However MT seems like one of the lucky guys who is both a genius/weather wiz but with a normal everyman personality which shows in his postings. They are always a pleasure to read with all the facts you could wish for but with humour and wit thrown into the mix too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 631 ✭✭✭inabina


    M.T. you are a legend. I am addicted to your posts!


  • Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭kindredspirit


    paulhac wrote: »
    and even if you are not fully born and bred Irish your still most welcome here on Boards
    Thanks
    Paul

    I presume what you've written has come across as more strident than what you meant. I hope we're not insular here. That's the problem with all forums, you don't get the intonation or the bodily gestures that amend the sense of direct words.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Calibos wrote: »
    Ah, I don't think Paul meant anything there Wolfe. Taken in isolation that comment might be interpreted as "Ah sure we let the foreigners post here on boards".
    Point taken calibos and kindred. Paul's comment I am sure was in good taste. And yes MT is the bees knees, whether that be an Africanised Honey Bee or a European Honey Bee:p


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    M.T.

    What hotel lounge in Westport were you in? I'll have a pint in there and be sure to mention to everyone about the esteemed guest from Canada that graced the premises... moreover I'm pleased to know that Westport inspired you to reach the world cup finals of weather forecasting... and at the moment you're winning 5-1. ;)

    Btw, if you want to come to Ireland sooner, be assured there will be a mulitude of friends over here who will be more than glad to show you some Irish hospitality in gratitude for your excellent contributions here.

    Keep up the good work, and fair play to you... you're the Pele of metereology :)


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Boards is for everyone, no matter if they are from west clare

    I suppose you will want a weather forum "Willie Week" next. Good luck with that one :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭paulhac


    Lads, I meant nothing bad in my post to M.T. and didn't mean to upset anybody by the unintensionally implied reference to Irishness being required to post on Boards.ie. I didn't intend it to sound patronising or insular either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Somewhat OTT, some of this commentary, my self-esteem may actually reach near normal values if this keeps up.

    Knowing how the weather gods feel about reputations, maybe I should quit while I'm supposedly ahead. Must confess that I am not by nature very competitive (with met.ie or anyone else), really, I've been around this forecasting long enough to know that we're all to some extent held hostage to the technology, if the models are wrong, it would take a clairvoyant act to anticipate it. But most forecast errors are human failings to interpret model guidance, at least in the first day or two of a forecast.

    I don't know what hotel in Westport, it's a minor miracle I can recall the names of towns this far along. It was on the south side of the road into town, how's that? Or the sea side if it curves around. I hope they've acquired a new chef since 1978.

    Glad to be compared to Pele and not Maradona for reasons that should be obvious, but in reality perhaps Nobby Stiles? I have played some football although calling it soccer, but nevertheless, was considered useful at times -- in fact, should have pursued it rather than science, looking at the salaries.

    The stuff about being some part Irish is of course, one of those odd points that can never totally be discerned, in today's world of blending or perhaps not so blending ethnicity. And I live in a country where blending ethnicity is almost like a state religion of some kind. But I didn't mention this, my "formative years" were spent quite frequently in company of an Irish family who maintained a traditional Irish sort of home (I verified this by visiting, but it was pretty obvious even to the sort of dull perception of the average 1960s teenager). So to that extent, I "grew up in Ireland" except on a very small scale, like part of my time in one home.

    I also played many rounds of golf in the late 1990s with an Irishman by the name of Alfie McGuirk who hailed from Cork, and sadly passed away rather suddenly about ten years ago; I believe he got back there in time to be buried there, and if I could figure out how, I would like to visit that spot. That might take a bit of doing though. Alfie had about as much personality as any other twenty people in a room, and it doesn't seem that exceptional a thing among the Irish, I don't hold to stereotypes that much, but it's a land that loves the sort of texture of the language, I must confess that perhaps my real reason for being here is that it gives me that chance to be in contact with this Irish world-view that doesn't fade out even with the second generation as I have observed with the kids of that family from Ireland.

    I think I've heard it said, as bad as Ireland is, everywhere else is worse. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    I don't know what hotel in Westport, it's a minor miracle I can recall the names of towns this far along. It was on the south side of the road into town, how's that? Or the sea side if it curves around. I hope they've acquired a new chef since 1978.

    Ah but who could forget Westport M.T.

    As for the hotel - there are a few roads into town so unfortunately to my utmost distress and horror it looks like I'll have to just have a pint in all of them :( so if I'm posting st*te - or rather even more than usual - in the early hours of Saturday morning, it wasn't my fault! ;)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    snow ghost wrote: »
    Ah but who could forget Westport M.T.

    You would not recognise it from 1978 , it has acquired about 20 large hotels for starters but it has incidentally produced 100% of all the Medical Botox in the whole world since M.T was there :D

    Westport is sort of everywhere now!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    You would not recognise it from 1978 , it has acquired about 20 large hotels for starters but it has incidentally produced 100% of all the Medical Botox in the whole world since M.T was there :D

    Westport is sort of everywhere now!!!

    I would recognise it Sponge Bob... most of it's been here since the 1700's when Lord Sligo planned it out... it's had a bit of botox since but it didn't really need it... the beauty remains the same. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 847 ✭✭✭mickger


    MT
    From the time you started doing forecasts on boards, I have been amazed at how accurate you are considering how many variables there are in Irish weather. I was always wondering what your background was and enjoyed so much reading your post letting us know a little bit of background to the great man. Thanks for all your hard work, it certainly is appreciated by so many on boards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Nice posts MTC, thoroughly enjoyed reading them. I guess there will be a big Boards Weather Beers Up sometime in Westport over the next 5 years! Do let us know, we can organise a right seisúin sp.

    As for the next two weeks weather, it is very hard to call at this stage. I have a feeling though that we will get another crack of cold before a mild last week of January, followed by a very cold February, though I suspect a more dry February overall with the chance of a white Valentines. Slight mild spell there after before another snowblast in the last few days which will lead to a cold snowy first half of March, not improving until after Patricks Day.

    No science behind this, just gut feeling and matching some past trends. Danno.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    If anyone doesn't already know this, Danno is the man for monthly outlooks, he topped the 2009 contest (and yours truly was about dead last, although showing some signs of life in December).

    I've respectfully got to ask for a recount on some of this conversation, and perhaps re-state a bit more directly that these forecasts and thread suggestions all reflect a considerable amount of shared thinking that I've culled from the resident and longer-time weather gurus here. In fact, it may all come down to that on some occasions. My role in this enterprise may be more limited than you're saying. It has been a concept of mine to share this forecasting around the circle too, the time difference is really my biggest asset because for anyone else to make these forecasts so early in the day, they would have to disrupt their normal schedules and I can't reasonably expect anyone to do that, so you'd more likely be getting somebody's six-hour-old views from an earlier model run and in many cases while systems were well offshore and not showing their true colours.

    But there definitely has been a lot of input from other people on this forum, whether they know it or not (I read as much as I can in all threads of interest, perhaps not the ones about the water not running although I sympathize). I also like to make lightning raids on other forums here and see if I can disrupt international relations between Canada and Ireland on fronts other than the atmospheric.

    Have all those odd noises come to an end?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 14 January, 2010
    _________________________

    A rather weak low is moving across the southern Bay of Biscay into southwest France and throwing off some mid-level moisture that is being swept into weak waves near south coast Ireland and southeast England. These will continue northeast dropping very light rain or melting snow, but will not amount to much, while a more organized area of rain develops in central France from the lows, turning to mountain snow.

    Meanwhile, a stronger low is forming up north of the Azores, and will ride a rapidly strengthening jet stream northwards, bringing a surge of mild, moist air towards Ireland on Friday morning.

    Forecasts:

    TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals possible, and scattered light outbreaks of rain or melting snow, in light winds becoming SSW 10-20 mph later this afternoon. Highs will be about 5-7 C for most. Fog will continue to be found over melting snow packs in many parts of Ireland but especially the inland northwest, parts of the Midlands, and over higher parts of Wicklow and Dublin. Thawing will be quite gradual today but the early stages of flooding may be encountered in one or two places.

    TONIGHT will become foggy and rather windy with any early frost likely to dissipate around midnight. Temperatures will then rise towards 5 C in the south and 3 C in the north. Winds will become SSE 20-40 mph, and rain may be intermittent but could turn heavy in a few spots.

    FRIDAY will become milder still but with widespread heavy rain and melting snow, many areas will see dense fog, as well as strong south winds 30-50 mph, temperatures steady in the 8-10 C range over lower ground, 4-7 C higher up. Winds could be very gusty in Kerry and Cork (60 mph at times). Snow will melt steadily and there is likely to be some flooding, getting worse by Friday night as higher level snow melt reaches lower elevations.

    FRIDAY NIGHT will continue windy and very mild, near 8 C, with further rainfalls bringing totals to 30-50 mms. There may be some thunder. Flooding could become severe in some parts of Ireland near higher terrain, and there is a hazard of mudslides and possibly a few highland snow slides or minor avalanches.

    SATURDAY should see improving weather but the flooding will continue. Skies should clear gradually from west to east with diminishing SW winds turning more to the W by late in the day, as temperatures stabilize near 7 C, falling to 2 C by evening. A secondary line of showers with hail may develop in Connacht by afternoon, with strong wind gusts.

    Not all of the highland snow will melt; what's left by the weekend may seem inviting for a drive or hike if the weather improves, but I would caution anyone venturing up high that snow may be very unstable, and there could be snowslides and mudslides or flash floods in various locations.

    SUNDAY-MONDAY should bring a rather cool, sleety or drizzly period again as fronts die out while a slow seep of colder air from the North Sea pushes towards a moderate SE flow continuing to draw on 5-7 C air with its origin in France. Winds will be SE 20-35 mph for much of this period Sunday and Monday will at least be the best days in a while to get around with much of the lowland ice and snow gone, as long as mud, debris or floods don't block your path. There may be another interval of rain later Monday into Tuesday morning. Heavy showers may develop at times Tuesday with gusty S to SW winds in western districts colliding with the SE flow continuing further east.

    TUESDAY night or WEDNESDAY will see a colder spell returning, with possibility of east coast snow and temperatures near freezing. I am going to leave these details partly to other threads today, and partly to later forecasts, because I want to keep the focus on this high impact Friday-weekend event. There is some chance that this may sweep on by Ireland with only a brief impact. In the longer term, plan around a possible warmer spell of weather near the end of the month, that could turn very windy by late 30th or 31st. With any sort of luck, this may not be overly wet, just windy and showery.

    Today (Wed) has been yet another very mild, drizzly day here with another near-record high of 13 C.

    Watch for updates all over the forum, as I may be turning in soon ... sleep deficit after the big weather days.


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