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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    For a few runs the ECM has been showing LP's deepening close by around next Tues 15th, current run shows very windy over the country from the fast moving system. Not as close by from the other models yet they do show LP systems out in the Atlantic .

    Long way off ,will see if anything develops over the coming days.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    LP in the early days of next week not as close as previous runs according to the ECM 12Z.

    Windy and possibly quite wet at times but typical Autumn weather and not showing severe weather at this stage .

    F8vOjJn.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    A tentative hint of something more settled, or at least a hint of something a bit less unsettled towards the last week of October?

    2WotTF8.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    airpressure.png


    Would be interested to get some expert opinion about the chart above. What kind of conditions could be expected with this type set up at that time of year? I'm guessing quite settled and mild...possibly humid?

    It's Dublin Marathon day so I'm watching it with great interest. Any observations from other models would be greatly appreciated!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭odyboody


    2 weeks away, may as well draw your own chart with crayons. It would probably be as close at this distance


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    I'm well aware it's 2 weeks away, that's why I'm posting in the Fantasy Island thread.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    sideswipe wrote: »


    Would be interested to get some expert opinion about the chart above. What kind of conditions could be expected with this type set up at that time of year? I'm guessing quite settled and mild...possibly humid?

    It's Dublin Marathon day so I'm watching it with great interest. Any observations from other models would be greatly appreciated!!

    No expert but IMO at the far reaches of FI for awhile yet but worth keeping an eye to see if a trend sets in for around then. Can understand it is an important event for those organizing and taking part in , I remember from previous years it can be very important for the participants to get the gear right for the day.

    So currently looks like a cool NW/ly / N'ly airflow . Nothing severe currently showing up near Ireland around that time.

    Over the coming days will see if the charts bear resemblance to today's output.

    JFubO4x.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Thanks for taking the time to look Meteorite, much appreciated.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS 12Z has a cold wintry look to it out in FI. That would probably put a few white caps on the mountains if it verified. Just putting it here to compare with in a weeks time to see if it will bare any resemblance.

    At + 240 hrs ECM and GEM look much milder than the GFS.



    anim_ijh8.gif



    anim_jol5.gif


    ECM1-240_owx0.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 0z now much cooler in the last few days of the run towards the Bank Holiday weekend. GEM follows the same trend, GFS still has the cold plunge into Europe, looks cold around BH w/e if somewhat a bit tamer looking than previous runs for Ireland after that, being on the usual boundary between cold and milder air.

    Overall I would think a colder trend showing up into late Oct early Nov.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    just for fun: this morning's ensembles showing the slightest snow risk for Dublin towards the end of the month:

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=203&run=6&date=2019-10-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Very early for this to appear, chances are we won't see anything of the sort. Sure there wasn't even a snowflake in most places all through last winter! The last time we had snow at the end of October was October 2008, sadly I wasn't here for it, but it is extremely rare to see snow fall at the end of October.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,477 ✭✭✭Kamili


    And it begins....


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Did someone say snow?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Gonzo wrote: »
    just for fun: this morning's ensembles showing the slightest snow risk for Dublin towards the end of the month:

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=203&run=6&date=2019-10-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Very early for this to appear, chances are we won't see anything of the sort. Sure there wasn't even a snowflake in most places all through last winter! The last time we had snow at the end of October was October 2008, sadly I wasn't here for it, but it is extremely rare to see snow fall at the end of October.

    Ah Gonzo, you know what youv'e gone and done now, any mention of snow, no matter how little, will bring talk on here of blizzard conditions, lampost watching, and all the rest before the month is out ;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Ah Gonzo, you know what youv'e gone and done now, any mention of snow, no matter how little, will bring talk on here of blizzard conditions, lampost watching, and all the rest before the month is out ;)

    our chances of seeing snow is probably less than 1%, those snow risk charts could aslo mean sleet. Last winter those snow risked charts showed something nearly every week but not one flake fell here till March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭odyboody


    I think regulars in here know that if we lived in FI we would have 30c all summer, with rain at night, come winter that will flip to deep snow.
    I.E we all know it wont happen but it doesn't stop us from looking:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Gonzo wrote: »
    our chances of seeing snow is probably less than 1%, those snow risk charts could aslo mean sleet. Last winter those snow risked charts showed something nearly every week but not one flake fell here till March.

    I know, its why i pass no real heed of charts and always stick to my trusted method of weather watching, the whatever is happening out the window method


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Both GFS and ECM showing not as cold by +240 hrs , ECM is colder for a few days before then. Latest charts showing SW'ly milder air being steered up from the tropics by a large system out in the Atlantic. This could make it quite mild if it develops like this.

    Both models are showing a large deep depression out in the Atlantic at +240. ECM had hinted at stormy conditions on previous runs as MT had mentioned in his forecast. Long way off but worth keeping an eye if the Jet might have an influence to help steer it towards us between the ridge over Spain and a weaker one near Iceland. Of course it could easily amount to nothing.

    ECM1-240_nax0.GIF



    anim_qzl3.gif


    gfs-0-240_xiz2.png


    anim_tuh0.gif


    Zu729EG.png

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    ki9rTQr.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing that area of LP out in the Atlantic drift well away from Ireland rather than move close to it. GFS showing similar. After cool weather pushes down over us from around next Thurs looks like temperatures will turn a bit above avg for most of the BH w/e.

    gg1UPuI.gif


    anim_bfc6.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Meteo Weather on the BBC very bullish about HP in about 8/9 days - the two main models seem to disagree with one another but neither is that strong on a stable spell developing for more than a couple of days. GEM in the other hand sees a very different set up. HP from 180 hours and out.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Meteo Weather on the BBC very bullish about HP in about 8/9 days - the two main models seem to disagree with one another but neither is that strong on a stable spell developing for more than a couple of days. GEM in the other hand sees a very different set up. HP from 180 hours and out.

    Saw that myself, unusual to hear them so certain over a week out


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Weighted ensemble temperature departure for Europe for day 10 to 15. This has been showing up for the last few runs now so perhaps a trend being locked onto?

    qjFokYc.png

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    for the past few days, the GFS has been trending colder and colder. Looks like we are now entering a fairly cool spell, which may bring below average temperatures right into the first week of November.
    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-10-23&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Start of November looks dryish but certainly chilly with daytime temperatures in the single digits. There is potential to see more frost over the next 2 weeks then most of us saw throughout last winter which wouldn't be hard!

    GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    A cold north-easterly plunge was on the cards (F1 style) but now looks like the HP will actually push it away before an Atlantic flow begins to reestablish itself at the two week mark. Until then good news for potato farmers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭highdef


    A cold north-easterly plunge was on the cards (F1 style) but now looks like the HP will actually push it away before an Atlantic flow begins to reestablish itself at the two week mark. Until then good news for potato farmers.

    It's FI style, not F1 style..... Fantasy Island style, not Formula 1 style. :P

    By the way, what model is your source regarding your forecast?


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Small bit of eye candy for the first week of November. The GFS teases us, as usual from here on in till April….

    LAvhEZL.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    highdef wrote: »
    It's FI style, not F1 style..... Fantasy Island style, not Formula 1 style. :P

    By the way, what model is your source regarding your forecast?

    the GSF last night, developing HP to the north west which hangs about pushes down over, us retreats a bit and then is pushed south and east as the Atlantic reasserts itself but quite weakly over Ireland from Nov 5th/6th. The possible cold snap doesn't look like happening really, just chilly early winter for 4/5 days end of next week, start of week after.


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    the GSF last night, developing HP to the north west which hangs about pushes down over, us retreats a bit and then is pushed south and east as the Atlantic reasserts itself but quite weakly over Ireland from Nov 5th/6th. The possible cold snap doesn't look like happening really, just chilly early winter for 4/5 days end of next week, start of week after.

    Early November Looking Cold?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,477 ✭✭✭Kamili


    With the cold bias on GFS teasing all the time, what are people's thoughts on whether it would be relied upon as much on longer range forcasts if the other models aren't showing similar set ups?

    Are people starting to doubt it?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    GFS looking good for snow (GFS) in November....about as likely as Southampton losing 9-0 at home to Leicester


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