June 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2018 6:03pm

So after six days, the IMT remains 16.6, with a similar daily outcome again.

There's a new MAX (25.1 at Newport) and the daily minimum of 5.7 at Dublin missed by 0.1 so that remains 5.6.

Rain entirely missed the grid so PRC has fallen to 37% for the month.

SUN is now above normal, the 6th managed 59.2 hours which is about 180%, the monthly average now 107%.

sryanbruen · 08-06-2018 12:05pm

25.8c at Mt. Dillon, 25.7c at Newport and 26.1c at Shannon Airport on the 7th.

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2018 4:54pm

After seven days ...

IMT now on 16.7 (3.9 above normal) with the 7th daily value 17.5 ... Shannon has a particularly warm mean so far, 18.3 C on "monthly data" and 18.4 on daily ag report, not sure why any difference.

MAX as noted above has increased to 26.1 (Shannon, 7th).

MIN remains 5.6 with the lowest yesterday being 6.3 C (at Dublin).

PRC is now down to 29% after just Ballyhaise in the eleven-station grid picked up rain (5.4 mm); Mountdillon had 7.4 mm but that won't replace any of the current top three all set on the first. Looking at today's radar those are probably all going to be relegated though.

It should be noted that PRC is a blend of several stations with near normal amounts and a larger number at essentially zero rainfall.

Some of my earlier PRC estimates are a bit high as the Ag Report shows a somewhat higher daily average normally than what I was using, something like 2.5 mm instead of 2.0 mm. So if you read back, scale those back by 5-10 per cent.

Tomorrow's update should be interesting and another day of potentially heavy rainfalls at some locations on Saturday.

SUN is currently at 113% (680/600) with another sunny day on 7th managing a total of 55.4 hours (about 170%). My ongoing sunshine estimates are likely more accurate than the PRC but may be a touch high in percentage terms, now that I have the more reliable Ag Report average, my ongoing estimate would have been 116%. So take one or two off those percentages in earlier days.

pauldry · 08-06-2018 5:27pm

Mt Dillon under a cell 25.5mm

n more possible

Jpmarn · 08-06-2018 11:10pm

pauldry wrote: »

Mt Dillon under a cell 25.5mm

n more possible

They got a total of 30.8mm of rain from today's thunderstorm.

Rikand · 09-06-2018 4:54pm

Jpmarn wrote: »

They got a total of 30.8mm of rain from today's thunderstorm.

Yay Mt. Dillon!

M.T. Cranium · 09-06-2018 5:13pm

IMT on 16.8 C after eight days, the 8th average was 17.8.

MAX and MIN untouched, the range on 8th was 8.5 to 25.0

New maximum 24h rain for bonus question, 30.9 mm at Mountdillon. This pushes Moorepark (20.9 on 1st) into second place with Mullingar (15.1 also on first) third. The second highest value yesterday was 7.4 mm at Gurteen.

PRC in the contest grid was 4 mm, about 15% of normal and the monthly average has now fallen to 27% of normal.

SUN meanwhile has moved up to 123% for the month, with the 8th recording 63.1 hours at six locations for nearly twice normal (195%).

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2018 4:33pm

After nine days, the IMT is still 16.8 (16.84 now) with the 9th at 16.9 C.

No new max or min, the range was 7.9 to 24.3 C.

No contenders for 24h rainfall, the only significant amount was 2.4 mm at Moore Park.

With almost zero rain in the contest grid, the monthly average is now down to 24% of normal.

It was quite sunny again although Belmullet was socked in by low cloud, so the total of 58.3 hours brought the SUN average up to 128% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2018 4:57pm

IMT fell slightly to 16.7 after ten days, the tenth averaged 15.4.

No new Max or min, the range was 21.8 to 8.5.

No rain anywhere except for 0.1 mm at Knock, so PRC is now down to 22% for the month.

Not as sunny in general, 26.5 hours or about 80% of normal, leaving the month at 123% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 12-06-2018 5:14pm

IMT after eleven days at 16.6, the 11th averaged 15.7 C.

MAX (26.3) and MIN (5.6) unchanged, the range only 19.9 to 8.2.

Very little rainfall again, 1.1 mm in the contest grid, 4% of normal, bringing the month to 20%.

Also a rather cloudy day with a total of 12.1 hours, about 36% of normal, dragging the monthly average down to 115% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 13-06-2018 4:34pm

IMT continues to drift down, now at 16.3 C (after 12 days) ... the 12th average was 13.5 C.

No pressure on MAX or MIN from a range of 18.5 to 7.4 C.

Only very small amounts of rain again, PRC is now down to 18% (but climbing during today).

SUN managed 19.4 hours, about 58% of normal, and that has the monthly average down to 110% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 14-06-2018 12:59pm

After 13 days, the IMT is 16.1 and the 13th averaged 13.1.

We have a new MIN of 5.4 (Markree) and the max for the day was 18.7 C (month remains 26.3).

The highest daily rainfall of 14.8 mm at Valentia was not quite enough to overtake current third place 15.1 (Mullingar) for the bonus question.

However, the grid received 51.9 mm of rain which is almost twice a normal daily amount so that monthly PRC has jumped up to 31%.

SUN was only 0.8 hours, a mere 3% of normal and that drops the monthly average to 102%.

M.T. Cranium · 15-06-2018 3:45pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.9, the second week average was 15.1, 1.7 above normal. The 14th alone averaged 13.8.

MAX remains 26.1 (for a few days I have been saying 26.3 but that seems to be wrong looking back). MIN stays 5.4. The range yesterday was 20.3 to 8.1.

PRC is on 32% with this past week at 34%. On the 14th, 11.5 mm in the grid or about 40% of normal.

No new contenders for 24h max rain, the heaviest fall being 5.6 mm at Finner on the 14th.

SUN is now at 106% with the second week average 99% (594/600). The total on the 14th was 50.4 hours which is about 150% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 16-06-2018 3:47pm

After fifteen days, IMT on 15.7, the mean on 15th being 12.7.

MAX and MIN unthreatened by the range of 17.6 to 7.9 C.

24h rainfall top three unchanged with the highest reading on 15th being 7.4 mm at Newport. Rain after midnight in central counties might show up in the next update for today.

PRC now 36% after the grid received an almost normal 24.5 mm (90%).

SUN now close to 100% of normal after a rather dull day with 7.6 hours (only 23%).

M.T. Cranium · 17-06-2018 5:06pm

The slow decline of the IMT continues, now on 15.6, the 16th averaged 13.4 C.

MAX and MIN remain 26.1 and 5.4, with the range on 16th being 18.4 to 8.1 C.

No new contenders for 24h max rainfall, the heaviest on 16th was 8.8 mm at Malin Head.

PRC now at 45% with 48.5 mm falling in the contest grid, about 180% of normal for any given day.

SUN still rounding off at 100% as the 16th managed 30.2h, about 90% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 18-06-2018 4:46pm

After 17 days, the IMT is on 15.5 with the 17th managing 14.3 C.

MAX and MIN remain unchanged with the range yesterday 9.1 to 20.3 C.

The heaviest 24h rainfall of 6.2 mm at Valentia changes nothing for the bonus.

Total rainfall in the grid of 16.7 mm is about 60% of a normal daily ration and brings the month up slightly to 46%.

There was only 11 hours of sunshine, mostly in the southwest, and this brings our monthly average down to 96% of normal.

Just looking at forecasts, we are still all outside the range of MAX and MIN, although MrSkinner at 26.2 just slightly so, the warmest MIN forecasts were 4.5. The lowest PRC forecast was 80% and from the look of recent model runs we would be hard pressed to get there from the current value. Our general thinking on sunshine may work out fairly well. For the bonus, the majority had been expecting a heavier fall than the current contender (30.9 mm) and here again, opportunities look few but we shall see.

pauldry · 18-06-2018 10:26pm

tomorrow might bring a top 3 contender to rainfall.

Malin Head 25mm or Finner 22mm? perhaps

JCX BXC · 18-06-2018 11:23pm

We didn't preform particularly great with June as a group did we

sryanbruen · 18-06-2018 11:26pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

We didn't preform particularly great with June as a group did we

I originally went for 70% precipitation but then when I saw you all going for above average, I felt alone and wanted to join in.

M.T. Cranium · 19-06-2018 3:32pm

After 18 days, the IMT now on 15.4, with the 18th setting a mean of 13.7 C.

MAX and MIN remain 26.1 and 5.4, the range yesterday was 21.4 and 7.9 C.

24h max rainfall contest unaltered, the wettest on 18th was only 2.0 mm at Valentia.

PRC was only 3.6 mm in the grid, about 14% of normal. That drops the month back to 44% of normal.

SUN was only 11.3 hours, about 32% of normal. That pushes the monthly average down to 92%.

pauldry · 19-06-2018 9:08pm

Today every hour since midday that Ive seen Newports rainfall it is around 3mm

So in simplistic terms thats 27mm at 9pm and probably 36mm or so by midnight

New contest leader?

Jpmarn · 20-06-2018 2:58pm

33.3mm of rain has fallen on Newport Co. Mayo station yesterday according to Met.ie

Rikand · 20-06-2018 3:17pm

Jpmarn wrote: »

33.3mm of rain has fallen on Newport Co. Mayo station yesterday according to Met.ie

That's mental. Didn't seem like there was bugger all rain about yesterday

Very localised to the north west

M.T. Cranium · 20-06-2018 3:45pm

IMT stays on 15.4 after 19 days, with the 19th at 15.0 C. Guidance suggests heat setting in by the weekend, the IMT could then return to the low 16 range (will likely continue a slow fall to 22nd, so from 15.2 then, average of 18 for last eight days would produce 16.3 C as final value.

MAX of 26.1 and MIN of 5.4 were not quite pushed out by a wide-ranging effort on 19th (24.6 OP and 6.6 Markree). These next two nights look like the last chance for MIN but MAX will have plenty of opportunities.

24h max rainfall contest now has a new leader with Newport at 33.2 mm. That pushes Mountdillon 30.9 into second. There is also a new third place value (previous second was Moorepark at 20.9) with Finner Camp (21.9) and Knock (21.7) both exceeding that. We can't quite declare this to be a final result as model guidance shows potential for heavy thunderstorm rainfalls on 30th, otherwise no rain expected.

PRC: The contest grid received 66.0 mm of rain, about 240% of a normal daily rate. This pushes the monthly average to 55% of normal. However, if no more rain falls, that will translate to 35% at end of month. Even a 200% day on 30th would leave the end of month at 50%.

SUN: There was only 12.7 hours total yesterday, about 38% of normal, and that leaves the month at 89% of normal. Guidance suggests a lot of sunshine to the end of the month. If we were to average 155% of normal the end of month average would then reach 115%.

Jpmarn · 20-06-2018 4:13pm

There is potential for a new MIN tonight as forecasters are hinting at ground frost in places. Probably a new max sometime next week with highs around 27 or 28c.

pauldry · 20-06-2018 6:15pm

Rikand wrote: »

That's mental. Didn't seem like there was bugger all rain about yesterday

Very localised to the north west

Yes we have our own little climate up here that even Met Eireann know nothing about sometimes

Also re min...Met Eireann are going for 4c and possibly lower on their forecast so 2 or 3c is possible

M.T. Cranium · 21-06-2018 4:01pm

IMT at low point for month so far, 15.24 after 20 days ... the 20th average was only 12.7 C.

MAX and MIN remain unchanged, the range was 18.0 to 7.4 C.

24h rainfall bonus question unchanged by daily max of 7.0 mm at Malin Head.

The grid received a total rainfall of 19.4 mm, about 70% of a normal day's total, so that leaves PRC at 56% of normal.

Sunshine yesterday was 28.7 hours, about 86% of normal, and that leaves SUN at 89%.

Scoring interests will be keen for the next two nights with these chances for MIN to drop (at least into our forecast range to remove the need for minimum progression). Then it will be a similar interest in MAX with one or two rooting for 30 degrees.

M.T. Cranium · 22-06-2018 5:30am

2 deg C at 0500h at Mountdillon.

The usual daily update will follow and I would imagine the MIN was reset by some midnight lows but that will only last until the next daily update.

M.T. Cranium · 22-06-2018 3:05pm

After three weeks ...

IMT on 15.1, the third week 13.3 (0.7 below average), the 21st itself averaged 11.8 C.

MAX remains 26.1, MIN changed briefly to 5.1 (Claremorris) but we know it then fell to around 2 C by this morning. (Max on 21st was 18.3).

No rainfalls except for 0.1 mm at Malin Head, this brings the monthly PRC down to 53%. The third week averaged 94% and was above normal in parts of the north (Malin Head 242%) but quite dry in the southeast (Oak Park 24%).

SUN during the third week was 80% of normal (477/600) and on the 21st totalled 78.5 hours which is about 240% for the day, so blending the weekly and daily tracking the current SUN value is 97% of normal.

M.T. Cranium · 23-06-2018 5:33pm

After 22 days, IMT on 14.9(4) with the 22nd showing 12.3 C. This will stay around 14.9 after today then start climbing steadily by 0.1 or even 0.2 a day, could end up near 15.8 at end of month.

MAX for the day was 20.5 at OP so no change there (26.1), new MIN of 2.1 at Mountdillon. If that holds, five guesses within 0.1 (dacogawa and sdanseo had 2.2, rikand, kindredspirit and MTC had 2.0) and several more at 1.9 or 2.3. ... not much clarity on how high MAX could get, anywhere in our range of forecasts is possible (we run 26.2 to 30.0). I think 28.7 might be the over-under now (our consensus is 28.0).

No rain anywhere so PRC falls to 51% for the month. This could go as low as 37% with no further rain.

SUN was about as high as possible (in more ways than one) with 91.1 hours total, about 275% of normal! That gives an instant 8% boost to the running average now up to 105%. Unbroken sunshine to end of month would see that rising to a little over 150%, probably not going to be quite that generous so maybe looking at about 130%? To get there about twice normal sunshine of 11 hours a day is required (on average at the six locations).

June 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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