FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

typhoony · 11-02-2020 11:36pm

Gonzo wrote: »

the second half of February may prove milder than the first half, looks generally milder from next Friday but remaining very unsettled. The final 7 to 10 days of February are still too far out to decide what might happen.

GFS and ECM have been consistent over the last few runs in bringing us milder weather for the last 10 days of February, next Wednesday looks to be the transition day. The jet is still powerful over the weekend but then it appears to weaken considerably and when it does reappear the following weekend it takes a more northerly springtime track.

typhoony · 13-02-2020 2:16pm

UKMO only goes out to 120hrs however it seems to be onboard with the change to milder more settled conditions, hopefully we'll get some 12c/13c by the end of next week into the weekend

Gonzo · 13-02-2020 3:48pm

some very mild weather showing up around 9 days time as an area of high pressure pushes up from southern Europe with long fetch south-westerlies from the Azores and beyond. This only lasts a few days before the Atlantic potentially rolls back in with more unsettled and cooler conditions. Could get temperatures to 15 or 16C if this verified and conditions were right.

+10 to +12C uppers across the country for about 2 days.

Gonzo · 13-02-2020 3:59pm

typhoony wrote: »

UKMO only goes out to 120hrs however it seems to be onboard with the change to milder more settled conditions, hopefully we'll get some 12c/13c by the end of next week into the weekend

next weekend is looking rather cool with cool zonal conditions, after that we may get something a bit milder. Still no signs of that PV losing power so any chances of high pressure will be short lived. The ECM not really on board with the brief spell of high pressure around the 22nd/23rd of February, it keeps it just to our south.

I'm now at the transitional weather dream stage do I look at the charts for upcoming mild/warm and settled spells with hints of spring like conditions or do I make a last ditch effort to try and find some early spring cold before the game is over for another year!

nacho libre · 13-02-2020 8:56pm

On the last GFS run there was hints at a cold end to February due to heights building out west, which might allow for a northern toppler, i doubt it will happen, though, what's more likely is a continuation of what we already have.

Gonzo · 13-02-2020 9:43pm

nacho libre wrote: »

On the last GFS run there was hints at a cold end to February due to heights building out west, which might allow for a northern toppler, i doubt it will happen, though, what's more likely is a continuation of what we already have.

already gone on latest run, like all cold runs this winter, they don't last more than 1 or 2 runs before it's back to those relentless westerlies.

pauldry · 13-02-2020 10:35pm

The jet stream is just on a constant conveyor.

We have a little else except what we have since last August.

It does change in March and April though so I think things are going to dry out from next Wednesday a bit. After that the trend has been a bit drier if not completely.

Sunshine today was quite strong....for an hour

typhoony · 13-02-2020 11:40pm

Gonzo wrote: »

next weekend is looking rather cool with cool zonal conditions, after that we may get something a bit milder. Still no signs of that PV losing power so any chances of high pressure will be short lived. The ECM not really on board with the brief spell of high pressure around the 22nd/23rd of February, it keeps it just to our south.

I'm now at the transitional weather dream stage do I look at the charts for upcoming mild/warm and settled spells with hints of spring like conditions or do I make a last ditch effort to try and find some early spring cold before the game is over for another year!

takes it's time next week but gets there eventually, just in time for the weekend. anyway it's going in the right direction if it's warmer weather you're after

Gonzo · 15-02-2020 12:40am

GFS still playing around with the idea of a very brief cold snap end of February/start of March. This has showed itself a few times over the past few days.

Looks very short lived with Ireland on the very edge of it. If this happened it probably would be the coldest day of the year with the -10 uppers getting into Donegal for 1 day. If there was another run after we would probably see the cold shifted to our east with warmer uppers returning to Ireland from the west.

This has a fair bit of support in various lower resolution GFS runs.

Let's see what happens with this, last ditch effort hoping for some wintryness before it's too late. Most likely scenario is we are too far west and will miss out by several 100km.

Monkeynut · 15-02-2020 12:50am

Would that be the first cold spell for Europe this winter?

Gonzo · 15-02-2020 1:46am

Monkeynut wrote: »

Would that be the first cold spell for Europe this winter?

for some places most definitely. The only places that have really seen proper snow this winter have been in the south-east of Europe and Turkey. Norway has seen a good bit of snow but most of that is high ground.

Gonzo · 15-02-2020 1:51am

and here are all tonights gfs runs combined showing a definite cooling trend as we head towards March and the possibility of a cold spell. A bit more supportive this time around. But we've been here many times for this to change very quickly back to mild. Tomorrows runs will most likely drop this idea to continue to move it on like a carrot on a stick.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-02-14&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-02-14&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

RobertKK · 15-02-2020 3:48pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

Would that be the first cold spell for Europe this winter?

I was chatting with a Dutch friend and he said they had no snow so far where he is - which happens to be in the highest part of that country.
They had some snow across Eastern Europe already but they are having an exceptional winter too with a lack of proper cold that one would expect.

Gonzo · 15-02-2020 4:02pm

RobertKK wrote: »

I was chatting with a Dutch friend and he said they had no snow so far where he is - which happens to be in the highest part of that country.
They had some snow across Eastern Europe already but they are having an exceptional winter too with a lack of proper cold that one would expect.

friend of mine living in inland southern Sweden says no snow there all winter either, which is really exceptional for their location. They had some snow during the Autumn before the extremely mild winter got going early November. Temperature anomolies continue to show +2 to +5C above average for the next month in the region.

Last nights cold GFS run is of course completely different now and the cold toppler get's shifted much further eastwards and only really affects northern Scandinavia.

Gonzo · 17-02-2020 3:45pm

Looks like there will be no change over the next 2 to 3 weeks with the Atlantic dominating for the rest of the month and into the first week of March.

The AO is likely to break all records within a few days, a drop will happen after that but it most likely will stay very positive over for the rest of the month. This will keep the PV locked in over the pole and a relentless conveyor belt of low pressures hitting Ireland from the Atlantic, and staying generally mild.

ao.sprd2.gif

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-02-17&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

The mild wet theme just goes on and on

This is the end of the GFS run, hard to tell because most charts between today and the ends of FI look very similar.

February will likely finish wetter than average and slightly milder than average. First half of March is likely to continue in the same pattern. By then the PV should finally start to weaken.

Meteorite58 · 17-02-2020 5:09pm

Looking very unsettled all right Gonzo. After this weeks heavy rain plenty more to come out to +240 from a series of LP passing close to us, a few windy spells also from the weekend into the earlier days of next week. Looks kinda like this week with cold weather sourced from the W /NW and milder interludes as frontal weather goes through. Jet plenty fired up.

Rebelbrowser · 20-02-2020 12:22pm

In a winter of no snow for many of us, the day 9 (I know) ECM looks a bit interesting I'd have thought?

GFS supports this too

216-574UK.GIF?20-6

Rebelbrowser · 20-02-2020 6:46pm

12z GFS if anything upgrades suggestion of conditions next week conducive to snow. 28/29 Feb has -7/-8 uppers, a feed coming from far further North than previously and very low thicknesses. Definitely one to watch. Much less scope for modification than in recent events (save for the 8 days in which the charts can modify!)

Andrew00 · 20-02-2020 6:55pm

Wouldn't mind it. Sure weren't all these graphs saying snow for today? Rubbish

Slashermcguirk · 20-02-2020 7:48pm

Gonzo wrote: »

for some places most definitely. The only places that have really seen proper snow this winter have been in the south-east of Europe and Turkey. Norway has seen a good bit of snow but most of that is high ground.

It’s been a scary mild winter in continental Europe. Places like Poland showing up to +14 degrees!! Moscow been above 0 degrees so much this winter. Places like Stockholm getting no snow this winter. Scay stuff

Hooter23 · 20-02-2020 8:11pm

Our summer will be even scarier we might get a weeks worth of sun if we're lucky

Gonzo · 20-02-2020 8:56pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It’s been a scary mild winter in continental Europe. Places like Poland showing up to +14 degrees!! Moscow been above 0 degrees so much this winter. Places like Stockholm getting no snow this winter. Scay stuff

I reckon I've seen more snow over the past week than parts of Sweden and Denmark have all winter and most of it has just been random flakes in the air, not sticking to anything!

Next week does look chilly, but once again it is Atlantic based stuff so anything that falls will either melt on impact or will be a very transitional dusting. Uppers of -6 to -8 from the Atlantic is marginal, snow may fall but sticking is unlikely away from high ground. Temperatures look similar to the zonal cold spells of recent times so I'd expect next week to be similar. Leinster may not do as well with the showers as the winds will be lighter than what we've had over the past week so showers may have a tougher time getting to the east, especially after dark.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2020 12:08am

Cold looking charts all right next week, wintry opportunities and on the latest run some nice set ups at the end of the run with the Jet to the S of Ireland and nicely positioned Lp systems giving snow potential but would need to see this kind of chart for a number of runs to have any confidence .

A bit closer is next Tues into Weds at just outside +120 hrs showing the parameters for wintry if not snow potential.

Gonzo · 21-02-2020 12:23am

tonights GFS upgrades next weeks cold chances with possible wintry outbreaks. A chance of a covering in many places mid week next week. However the GFS usually over does the snow potential and sometimes the uppers. This could easily downgrade closer to the timeframe, it is Atlantic cold afterall.

132-780UK.GIF?20-18

Another snow event for Saturday 29th.

204-780UK.GIF?20-18

All in all, next week is looking like potentially the coldest week of the year with low dingle digits for much of the week and a raw windchill.

126-290UK.GIF?20-18

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2020 12:32am

Gonzo wrote: »

tonights GFS upgrades next weeks cold chances with possible wintry outbreaks. A chance of a covering in many places mid week next week. However the GFS usually over does the snow potential and sometimes the uppers. This could easily downgrade closer to the timeframe, it is Atlantic cold afterall.

All in all, next week is looking like potentially the coldest week of the year with low dingle digits for much of the week and a raw windchill.

ECM looking very cold also for mid week with Snow Potential, think the airmass looks to be more Northerly sourced so possibly less modification over the sea. Likewise think it looks like the coldest week of the year so far and spells of windy weather making it feel bitter, think I will be stocking up on a bit more fuel!

pauldry · 21-02-2020 12:39am

Also noticed with many Northerlies of the past that they are often followed by a drier spell of weather so is the jet about ease?

Snowfall this morning in Ballymote with big flakes but very little lies. Next week it will.

Cork Boy 53 · 21-02-2020 12:39am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM looking very cold also for mid week with Snow Potential, think the airmass looks to be more Northerly sourced so possibly less modification over the sea. Likewise think it looks like the coldest week of the year so far and spells of windy weather making it feel bitter, think I will be stocking up on a bit more fuel!

If this verifies it will be a far cry from the corresponding week in Feb 2019.

seamus · 21-02-2020 12:56pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

If this verifies it will be a far cry from the corresponding week in Feb 2019.

Exactly the same time that Emma arrived in 2018 though!

Gonzo · 21-02-2020 12:59pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

If this verifies it will be a far cry from the corresponding week in Feb 2019.

this mornings run is already ever so slightly downgraded, it doesn't take much of a downgrade to mean the difference between lying snow and no lying snow with Atlantic zonal.

Rebelbrowser · 21-02-2020 1:57pm

Gonzo wrote: »

this mornings run is already ever so slightly downgraded, it doesn't take much of a downgrade to mean the difference between lying snow and no lying snow with Atlantic zonal.

Very unscientifically, I reckon on average we get decent snow every four years. What better day therefore than 29 Feb for a snowstorm to arrive!

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST