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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • #482
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    starting to trend cooler from about the 18th of February. Hopefully we may start to see something interesting develop over the next week. There is still time for final week of February to deliver a decent spell.


  • #483
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Im confident there will be one more cold spell

    It usually comes last week Feb start of March

    Very mild GFS though today with temperatures in the teens before that


  • #484
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The 0z last night still showed the Scandi heights slowly evolving towards Greenland; 6z has the block centred over us in FI instead but crucially it does still have the block. 0z ECM still shows the Scandi high building from 168h, being pushed away by a strong jet stream low - but still trying to edge around and North of it towards Greenie in its last frame.

    Personally I'm still feeling it. A dodgy 6z isn't enough to bring me down unless the 12z verifies it in a couple of hours :D

    Will do some chart gifs once the 12z is published, unless it downgrades the lot of them.


  • #485
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    this mornings GFS has a very cold plunge around the 21st of February from Siberia pushing south-westwards into central Europe, then France and north-east Spain. It narrowly misses the UK with high pressure in control over Ireland and most of the UK.

    It wouldn't take much of a change to push this into the UK and a bit more than a push to get it into Ireland. Hopefully the models will stick with this and luck makes this a reality, but it is still 2 weeks away.


  • #486
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    several of the lower resolution GFS members are also having a go at bringing cold air near us after the 20th.

    Definitely signs that changes could be coming into the final 10 days of February.

    Fingers crossed charts will build on these over the next week with a better run for Ireland and cross model agreement developing. It's been a rough winter, we deserve at least a few days of fun before Spring.

    GFSP06EU06_336_1.png

    GFSP02EU06_354_1.png

    GFSP07EU06_330_1.png

    GFSP09EU06_378_1.png


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  • #487
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    This is FI, it's not meant to be reality. There's been more chat in here that charts.
    Some people just wanna see weather chart porn.

    gens-4-1-384.png

    gens-17-1-384.png

    gens-9-1-384.png


  • #488
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    AO and NAO today

    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1093582238653038593


  • #489
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    ECM 12z continues building the Scandi high, getting closer to the reliable timeframe:

    Question for those more knowledgable (Sryan, where art thou?) - in the final frames of this run, you can see the Scandi heights trying to slip Eastward towards Iceland and Greenland, but at the same time a large depression embedded in the jet stream is moving Westward. It looks to me like the higher pressures will try to "wrap around" the low, to its North - in this scenario, who "wins"? Does the jet stream ultimately overpower the heights to the North, or could we see the heights slipping above it, becoming more established once that low moves on?

    mT7PbnU.gif


  • #490
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    this mornings GFS has a very cold plunge around the 21st of February from Siberia pushing south-westwards into central Europe, then France and north-east Spain. It narrowly misses the UK with high pressure in control over Ireland and most of the UK.

    It wouldn't take much of a change to push this into the UK and a bit more than a push to get it into Ireland. Hopefully the models will stick with this and luck makes this a reality, but it is still 2 weeks away.

    According to the UKMO office long range it won't- it would be sod's law, after predicting cold weather for months on end, that as soon as they flip to a milder, unsettled outlook to end February, it pans out like that.


  • #491
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    nacho libre wrote: »
    According to the UKMO office long range it won't- it would be sod's law, after predicting cold weather for months on end, that as soon as they flip to a milder, unsettled outlook to end February, it pans out like that.

    Well they did state there's still a low chance of an easterly so not completely out of the question, though I do acknowledge they have downgraded significantly from this time last week.


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  • #492
    red_bairn
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    sicknotexi wrote: »
    Well they did state there's still a low chance of an easterly so not completely out of the question, though I do acknowledge they have downgraded significantly from this time last week.

    350.png


  • #493
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    They're forecasting this year has been very poor as has been every other weather guru!! It's been a while since almost every lrf has been way off the reality


  • #494
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    ECM 12z continues building the Scandi high, getting closer to the reliable timeframe:

    Question for those more knowledgable (Sryan, where art thou?) - in the final frames of this run, you can see the Scandi heights trying to slip Eastward towards Iceland and Greenland, but at the same time a large depression embedded in the jet stream is moving Westward. It looks to me like the higher pressures will try to "wrap around" the low, to its North - in this scenario, who "wins"? Does the jet stream ultimately overpower the heights to the North, or could we see the heights slipping above it, becoming more established once that low moves on?

    I'll let my amateur graphic explain (cannot see the position of the low on scenario #2 due to the map used). Don't mind the stay tuned for updates on the Twitter page part :p: .

    w9e8xOB.png

    A significant shift in the AO forecast towards negative during the second half of February. NAO meanwhile is forecast to go to neutral - maybe a start of a trend towards negative? Equally, it could go back positive after the drop to neutral. You just do not know.

    As always, wait and see :rolleyes: .

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #495
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS has been slowly but surely trying to tease easterly's in FI over the past few days. This mornings GFS run has us in a cold easterly by 20th of February. I would really like to see this develop and upgrade over the next week to 10 days.

    GFSOPEU06_312_1.png


  • #496
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    There are tenative signs that the MJO may go to phase 8, if so that could mean the door opens up for blocking to our north west from any scandi high that develops. It's an outside chance for now.

    However if it does turn out to be a cold end to February, kudos to yansno for predicting it a few weeks back.


  • #497
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    here is this mornings GFS ensembles for Dublin. You can see the thick green line is the GFS operational run, it's kinda on it's own for now with the cold spell. However there is a definite cooling trend kicking from about the 16th of February. We may lose the easterly on the next GFS run and perhaps have it back again on a later run.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-02-08&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

    The next 3 days will be very important model watching to see if this cooling trend into a potential easterly has any realistic chance of happening. The ensembles have also turned a good deal dryer overall for Dublin compared to what was being modeled a few days ago.


  • #498
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    I'm getting (Invalid img) where your chart should be.


  • #499
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    highdef wrote: »
    I'm getting (Invalid img) where your chart should be.

    that's odd, I've looked at this post from several different devices and it's showing up grand on them all.


  • #500
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    that's odd, I've looked at this post from several different devices and it's showing up grand on them all.

    It's fine for me.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #501
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    It's fine for me.

    Works for me too.


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  • #502
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    Went back to legacy site on my android device and it's fine now. Weird.


  • #503
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Very cold but Dry in our neck of the woods in a week or two on the 12zgfs
    A shallow low near SE England will give snow there
    All FI
    Another variation on a theme
    What will that spell do to average February temps,bring them in well under average probably


  • #504
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I can't chase another 10 dayer. Somebody PM me at T48.


  • #505
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Very cold but Dry in our neck of the woods in a week or two on the 12zgfs
    A shallow low near SE England will give snow there
    All FI
    Another variation on a theme
    What will that spell do to average February temps,bring them in well under average probably

    The 12zGFS has us narrowly missing out on a Beast, perhaps still some light snow showers in Leinster. This is still two weeks ago and will chop and change, the main thing we can take from this is the trend is definitely colder and all signs towards the Atlantic being cut off for the last 10 days of February. Knowing our luck the high will be too close to us when the time comes, but certainly some exciting model watching coming over the next week hopefully.

    GFSOPEU12_288_1.png

    The GFS ensembles are still updating and several of them are going close to the freezer from about the 18th, will take a closer look when all the models have finished updating.


  • #506
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Meanwhile, in the more reliable end of FI, the GFS 12z showed the prospects of a very mild Valentine's Day 2019 with a southerly flow of air. Isobars to Ireland coming all the way from North Africa.

    I would think there'd be a possibility of maxima of 12-14c, maybe even 15c in the odd spot?

    8BgHyh7.png

    S1GKQmq.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #507
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    gfs-1-264.png?18

    Day 11 so this is in the bag.....


  • #508
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »

    Day 11 so this is in the bag.....

    not a great run tonight, we get a brief toppler on the 18th/19th of February, then high pressure moves from the Atlantic on the 20th and mild Atlantic after that with no sign of proper easterlies in tonight's run.


  • #509
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Terrible FV3 18z tonight but the ECM is still trying to establish blocks and disrupt the jet stream, so in my view we wait for the overnight and morning runs to compare. We're still very much potentially in the game here.


  • #510
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    The outlook seems to be developing continental HP, Atlantic interlude, developing continental HP. The weather is on a loop!


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  • #511
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Deep FI and just for the craic for now, but....

    YZ4j0hw.png


This discussion has been closed.
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