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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,502 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    plodder wrote: »
    Kieran Cuddihy was talking to a furloughed airline pilot on "The hard shoulder" on Newstalk yesterday evening about the difficulties in keeping ratings current and how pilots are working other jobs to make ends meet etc. If anyone is interested, it's on their website.
    Bit of a tangent but I have wondered what that does to the business case of the 737 Max, which basically hinged on not needing type rating training..


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,102 ✭✭✭plodder


    PommieBast wrote: »
    Bit of a tangent but I have wondered what that does to the business case of the 737 Max, which basically hinged on not needing type rating training..
    I presume you'd still need to keep the NG(?) rating current and with the same limited amount of flying time. So, not sure what difference it makes.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    IT article about Norwegian. They had 80 Airbus ordered. They have lost the deposits and have to pay 700K, presumably as a fine/cancellation fee.


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/norwegian-air-shuttle-nears-agreement-to-end-jet-deliveries-from-airbus-1.4494036?mode=amp

    "The troubled Scandinavian carrier and four Irish subsidiaries have High Court protection from creditors................
    .......... the airline had agreed terms of a consent order to cancel an order for 88 Airbus aircraft.
    Under those terms, the European aerospace giant will keep pre-payments while NAS will pay it a further €700,000.
    The order included 30 Airbus A321 long-range aircraft. NAS is axing its long-haul business to focus on Scandinavia and the rest of Europe as part of its restructuring"


    I'm sure those 30 slots will be eagerly snapped up. IAG would be a likely customer as they want/need them AND have liquidity to do so.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,082 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Better to have a cleaner, realistic order book




  • Tenger wrote: »
    I'm sure those 30 slots will be eagerly snapped up. IAG would be a likely customer as they want/need them AND have liquidity to do so.
    I don't agree with that at all. With IAG having an LOI on 737 Maxes and so many lease companies having too many airframes with no customers the last thing IAG should be doing is looking eager and approaching Airbus. They can even re-negotiate current leases downwards because the lease companies are in such a tight spot.
    Airbus will have to be put in a position where they are begging to even be allowed give a quote.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,478 ✭✭✭john boye


    I don't agree with that at all. With IAG having an LOI on 737 Maxes and so many lease companies having too many airframes with no customers the last thing IAG should be doing is looking eager and approaching Airbus. They can even re-negotiate current leases downwards because the lease companies are in such a tight spot.
    Airbus will have to be put in a position where they are begging to even be allowed give a quote.

    That LOI for the max is almost 2 years old. At what point do we just accept that it'll never happen?




  • john boye wrote: »
    That LOI for the max is almost 2 years old. At what point do we just accept that it'll never happen?

    when it stops being an effective negotiating tool.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,082 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    It's not an effective negotiating tool when the other side know it's a sham.




  • A 737Max may be less desirable than a Neo but the economics are similar and a mixed fleet operation like IAG could easily introduce them in to their operations so it isn't a sham but Airbus would be more realistically worried about the many hundreds of Airbus planes which are already in existence seeking new homes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,811 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Cork Airport have announced a twice-weekly flight to Frankfurt with Lufthansa beginning this summer. This is huge for Cork, as this now links Cork directly in with Lufthansas entire network.

    Yes, Covid and all that, I still don't think Tony et al will let us fly this summer but it proves the interest is there and if not this summer, then next summer. Zurich (with Swiss) is available for this summer too.

    It leads weight to my own theory that there will be a massive recovery in flight when all this is over, as everyone will hop on the nearest plane to somewhere, anywhere. Whether that is this year or next.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    when it stops being an effective negotiating tool.

    I don't think that LOI is really effective when it's specifically the A321LR in discussion here.
    IAG already have A321LRs on order.
    This may be an opportunity to expedite production/delivery.

    While the leasing companies certainly have too many availible aircraft at the moment those are probably not going to be A321LRs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭billy few mates


    Tenger wrote: »
    I don't think that LOI is really effective when it's specifically the A321LR in discussion here.
    IAG already have A321LRs on order.
    This may be an opportunity to expedite production/delivery.

    While the leasing companies certainly have too many availible aircraft at the moment those are probably not going to be A321LRs.

    Even if they were A321LRs they'd end up with a pick n 'mix layout of interior specs, seats, lavs and galleys etc if they started sweeping up spare aircraft from leasing companies. These would all have to be modified to their own spec or this time next year you'd have people on here moaning that they ended up on EI-xyz like they did with the odd ball A330s they had a couple of years ago.
    Better to use this crisis to get a better deal from Airbus to provide aircraft that already meets their requirements.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭donkey balls


    1000 job losses FFS as if things are not bad enough as it is, A lad that lives around the corner from me both him and the missis work at EI must be devastating for a lot of EI employees were both incomes rely on the airline.


    "Aer Lingus job cut total to exceed previously stated 500 target" https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40234475.html?type=amp


  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭AnRothar


    1000 job losses FFS as if things are not bad enough as it is, A lad that lives around the corner from me both him and the missis work at EI must be devastating for a lot of EI employees were both incomes rely on the airline.


    "Aer Lingus job cut total to exceed previously stated 500 target" https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40234475.html?type=amp
    A point of clarification is needed.

    From the article I took the following.
    More than the initial 500 jobs will be lost.
    The 1000 figure includes "planned" future recruitment such is not needed as a consequence of the pandemic .

    A bit of deliberate inclusion of non relevant information to support a narative.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,139 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    1000 job losses FFS as if things are not bad enough as it is, A lad that lives around the corner from me both him and the missis work at EI must be devastating for a lot of EI employees were both incomes rely on the airline.


    "Aer Lingus job cut total to exceed previously stated 500 target" https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40234475.html?type=amp

    I have to say the Examiners reporting of C19 has raised my eyebrow on more than one occasion. This headline for example: is anyone really surprised that AL will not be taking on 500 new staff whilst letting 500 go at the same time? Did the Examiner report that no net job losses before this revelation?


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    €563 million loss is a staggering figure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭Van.Bosch


    Cork Airport have announced a twice-weekly flight to Frankfurt with Lufthansa beginning this summer. This is huge for Cork, as this now links Cork directly in with Lufthansas entire network.

    Yes, Covid and all that, I still don't think Tony et al will let us fly this summer but it proves the interest is there and if not this summer, then next summer. Zurich (with Swiss) is available for this summer too.

    It leads weight to my own theory that there will be a massive recovery in flight when all this is over, as everyone will hop on the nearest plane to somewhere, anywhere. Whether that is this year or next.

    Great news for Cork, twice a week can be upped if demand is there. LH must have seen good numbers re the Swiss service.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,347 ✭✭✭basill


    Many of the cabin crew and ground staff (gate and checkin) are "retained" on what EI calls temporary seasonal contracts. Have even heard them mention temporary permanent which is a contradiction in itself but there you go. The upshot is EI will roll over the contracts as long as the law will allow them before they are forced to offer permanent work. It would not be difficult to imagine the type of environment this creates for these poor people who bend over backwards to appease their masters in the hope of being taken on. Of course whilst being temporary the banks don't want to know you. During the winter they are invariably let go but if someone got the numbers wrong can and are called back. Its an utterly horrible (but sadly legal) way to treat anyone and it will be these people that will bear the brunt of the job losses announced.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭donkey balls


    basill wrote: »
    Many of the cabin crew and ground staff (gate and checkin) are "retained" on what EI calls temporary seasonal contracts. Have even heard them mention temporary permanent which is a contradiction in itself but there you go. The upshot is EI will roll over the contracts as long as the law will allow them before they are forced to offer permanent work. It would not be difficult to imagine the type of environment this creates for these poor people who bend over backwards to appease their masters in the hope of being taken on. Of course whilst being temporary the banks don't want to know you. During the winter they are invariably let go but if someone got the numbers wrong can and are called back. Its an utterly horrible (but sadly legal) way to treat anyone and it will be these people that will bear the brunt of the job losses announced.

    It's a sh*t show at present if I was in that situation they are in now I be looking elsewhere for work or up skill.


  • Registered Users Posts: 656 ✭✭✭gral6


    So, Ryanair announces eight new routes for Belfast City Airport from this summer.
    The CEO of Belfast City Airport, Brian Ambrose, described the new routes as “excellent news” for Northern Ireland.

    “Travel has been significantly restricted over the last 12 months and as the vaccine rollout continues at pace and the restrictions ease, we expect there will be considerable demand for these routes, and we look forward to welcoming Ryanair customers through the terminal,” Ambrose said.

    In the meantime, travel from Ireland has been heavily demonized by gov and useless Irish media.
    Guess what future awaits for Dublin airport?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Good move to generate some cash flow, but

    1. Will it happen, will there be somewhere to fly to?
    2. Are they actually based in Belfast as Ryanair doesn't want to register aircraft on the UK register so will have to fly under EASA regs, no mention of a 'base' could these be out and back from Spain/Italy to avoid issues
    3. Short runway =/= not much good can't get to Greece where they will almost certainly let you in if vaccinated


  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭PinOnTheRight


    Good move to generate some cash flow, but

    1. Will it happen, will there be somewhere to fly to?
    2. Are they actually based in Belfast as Ryanair doesn't want to register aircraft on the UK register so will have to fly under EASA regs, no mention of a 'base' could these be out and back from Spain/Italy to avoid issues
    3. Short runway =/= not much good can't get to Greece where they will almost certainly let you in if vaccinated

    All flights appear to be operated by aircraft based downroute in ALC/PMI/AGP etc. However, the UK register issue wouldn't prevent them basing an EI registered aircraft in BHD.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,257 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    This is what happens when you leave your Triple 7 parked around for too long!! :eek:


    https://twitter.com/greenpeacefr/status/1367770046701920257


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,347 ✭✭✭basill


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    This is what happens when you leave your Triple 7 parked around for too long!! :eek:


    https://twitter.com/greenpeacefr/status/1367770046701920257

    Well done Greenpeace. There goes 20 people sacked for breach of airport security during a global pandemic.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    Possible chink of clear sky during a Cat III approach?*

    https://onemileatatime.com/biden-lift-travel-restrictions/

    "US could lift border restrictions in mid-May
    It’s being reported that the Biden administration is looking at lifting many border restrictions currently in place around the middle of May 2021, so that’s potentially under two months from now....."



    *the non-pilot trying to be cool!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭IngazZagni


    The issue for us won't be on the American end, it'll be on the Irish end. NPHET have ruled out international travel until July at least.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    IngazZagni wrote: »
    The issue for us won't be on the American end, it'll be on the Irish end. NPHET have ruled out international travel until July at least.

    Thats is true. But I was thinking that such a move would see an increase in transfers through Dublin to/from the US.

    I read the new NPHET statement this morning. Very grim reading. But another example of "we're not all in this together"

    If the European situation improves before July I can see a lotof pressure on our lot to lift restrictions. FF/FG don't want to be seen out of step with the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭Jack1985


    Tenger wrote: »
    If the European situation improves before July I can see a lotof pressure on our lot to lift restrictions. FF/FG don't want to be seen out of step with the EU.

    This is the crux of it, life comes with risk - there has to be an acceptance to attempt to mitigate against. Once US/EU travel is open, Ireland won't remain an outlier by remaining closed, despite what NPHET may think. American's bring cash to our shores, Gov need it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,381 ✭✭✭✭cson


    Jack1985 wrote: »
    This is the crux of it, life comes with risk - there has to be an acceptance to attempt to mitigate against. Once US/EU travel is open, Ireland won't remain an outlier by remaining closed, despite what NPHET may think. American's bring cash to our shores, Gov need it.

    Anecdotally they wont be bringing it this year, the huge uncertainty with travel to Europe has pushed most folks I know to booking domestic vacations this year - it ties into what UA/DL/AA all said at the JPM Conference, domestic bookings are very strong in the US at the moment.

    Side bar; I despair when I look at how its being handled for you all, there's a strong chance that I'll be vaccinated over here in the US before my 65+ high risk category Dad back home gets his one. I feel so sorry for everyone in Ireland right now, looks like a throwback to the suffering for sufferings sake that was the order of the day back in the 50s/60s. I hope its remembered in the next General Election.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭Jack1985


    cson wrote: »
    Anecdotally they wont be bringing it this year, the huge uncertainty with travel to Europe has pushed most folks I know to booking domestic vacations this year - it ties into what UA/DL/AA all said at the JPM Conference, domestic bookings are very strong in the US at the moment.

    Side bar; I despair when I look at how its being handled for you all, there's a strong chance that I'll be vaccinated over here in the US before my 65+ high risk category Dad back home gets his one. I feel so sorry for everyone in Ireland right now, looks like a throwback to the suffering for sufferings sake that was the order of the day back in the 50s/60s. I hope its remembered in the next General Election.

    I should point out, I don't expect anywhere near what we may have been use to in terms of US-Ireland tourism levels, I do anticipate recovery beginning at some sort of level from Q3 onward. Something like 70% of Tourism suffered last year in Ireland, a well-known hotelier in Kerry pointed out on an earnings basis he is dependent on high spending Americans. However small the recovery maybe they are needed, with the pace of American vaccination there will be no reasonable opposition that could be justified to remaining closed. I did read JetBlue were dealing, domestically of course, with unprecedented levels of demand for forward bookings. America's airlines have been well supported, I do believe they can confidently say the worst is behind them.

    As with the latter, there's really nothing to add. The level of frustration in the public is something I've not seen before.


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