Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

torrentum · 17-07-2013 11:12pm

robclay26 wrote: »

Anybody seen footage of the 85 storm?

No. Pity. Imagine if camera phones existed then!! We'd have plenty of video records.

Larbre34 · 17-07-2013 11:36pm

Dont need footage of the '85 storm, my view of it from the duvet on the floor of my parents room was quite the memory enough. I was 10 but was enough to scare me witless, constant fork lightning punctuated by permanent rolling thunder and regular massive deafening claps. It started rolling around in the late afternoon, the air was clammy and fizzy, after dark it felt like it went on for 6 or 7 hours. was awesome stuff.

Hope for a rerun for Ian and co.!

fryup · 17-07-2013 11:56pm

RobertKK wrote: »

I remember 1985 so well, as a child, lightening non stop, downpours, electricity gone, scared, mother had us all saying the rosary.

It was epic and as a child it was scary.

what? saying the rosary

maquiladora · 18-07-2013 1:04am

Small risk of a few sparks in the northern half of the country tomorrow, nothing major at this stage.

Iancar29 · 18-07-2013 3:02pm

Cant really see the cap being broken today , but 2moro looks more likely now , mainly for the midlands this one too so i wont be in for any hope here in the east

But yeah , some good convergence may well see some Cbs explode upwards

maquiladora · 18-07-2013 3:44pm

WRF showing some small convective showers up north kicking off in the evening. We'll see, doesn't look like much either way.

The model has lots of convective precip in the days ahead though, mostly in the west and midlands but some crossing the Irish Sea from Wales and southwest England to the east coast too.

This thread will be hoppin' in a couple of days....

ninebeanrows · 18-07-2013 4:26pm

Tomorrow looks interesting for the midlands, we should get a bang.

hotwhiskey · 18-07-2013 8:21pm

The main threat for activity pushed back to Thursday next week.

maquiladora · 18-07-2013 9:11pm

I think we'll definitely see thundery activity before Thursday, assuming the ECM is right.

Elmer Blooker · 18-07-2013 9:46pm

Evelyn just said thunder possible in Munster as early as Sunday?

maquiladora · 18-07-2013 9:54pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Evelyn just said thunder possible in Munster as early as Sunday?

Yes, the gif I posted above is the ECM showing convective precip moving up into the southwest/west starting Sunday. Chances are it could be thundery, increasingly thundery from Sunday onwards.

pad199207 · 18-07-2013 9:56pm

Warmer then usual sea temps should help things along with imports!

maquiladora · 18-07-2013 10:05pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Warmer then usual sea temps should help things along with imports!

Should be some good radar, satellite and sky watching days ahead.

It's been a while since we've had a setup like this, hopefully it delivers, though I won't be wishing for anything as severe as '85.

eskimocat · 18-07-2013 10:36pm

I don't know Maq, a bit of me is kinda hoping for a little bit of '85.... okay maybe for a shorter period.... 2/3 hours tops... but what a lightning show that was....
Looking forward to following things here if I can, thanks for posting the gifs etc... same to the rest that are posting the info

maquiladora · 18-07-2013 10:44pm

eskimocat wrote: »

I don't know Maq, a bit of me is kinda hoping for a little bit of '85.... okay maybe for a shorter period.... 2/3 hours tops... but what a lightning show that was....
Looking forward to following things here if I can, thanks for posting the gifs etc... same to the rest that are posting the info

The only reason I wouldn't be wishing for something on that scale is that hundreds of farm animals were killed by lightning and large hail that also damaged a lot of crops. There was damage to property from flash flooding too.

But yeah of course I hope we get some severe storms. Just nothing too severe.

hotwhiskey · 18-07-2013 11:09pm

Explosive situation indeed as the satellite view shows back in '85.

I didn't like it one bit the beast that night was different class to anything I have ever experienced. They only time anything came close for me was in Croatia seven years ago.

Link: http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Link the the PDF file from Met Eireann from the '85 storm. Page 7 is a classic with the hand written rainfall totals for that night.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/July1985_Thunderstorm.PDF

eastmayo · 18-07-2013 11:20pm

Ya i will never forget that storm im 85 it was near constent thunder and lighting.alot off cattle killed in my village.i remember my aunt...she is a nun said the rosary in the middle of the nite...was unreal....but hope for some big storms next week....

RobertKK · 18-07-2013 11:30pm

eastmayo wrote: »

Ya i will never forget that storm im 85 it was near constent thunder and lighting.alot off cattle killed in my village.i remember my aunt...she is a nun said the rosary in the middle of the nite...was unreal....but hope for some big storms next week....

Must have been one of the best nights in recent decades for the rosary, blessed candles and scared people.
Lots of losses alright, Uncle lost 8 fine cattle, they had went under a tree together and you know the rest.

I wouldn't want an 1985 event again, though I do want thunderstorms.

Danno · 19-07-2013 1:59am

I'd fear for dry storms... any lightning to hit the ground and the countryside would go up in an instant blaze!

Iancar29 · 19-07-2013 1:02pm

SOMETHINGS HAPPENING!!! :O :O :O LOL

http://www.sat24.com/gzoom.aspx?ir=false&region=gb&x=257&y=333

maquiladora · 19-07-2013 1:08pm

Slight risk in the midlands/west this evening.

Estofex have nothing for us (unless they update later) which is usually a good indication there won't be anything too dramatic.

Some amateur opinion thinks there's a slight to moderate risk though :

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/98668-convective-outlook-fri-19th-july-2013/page__view__findpost__p__864508

hotwhiskey · 19-07-2013 1:12pm

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=22729

Just outside risk area!:(

dexter647 · 19-07-2013 1:48pm

Lots of cumulus bubbling up here in south west Laois in the last hour or so....Fingers and toes crossed:)

Elmer Blooker · 19-07-2013 2:55pm

dexter647 wrote: »

Lots of cumulus bubbling up here in south west Laois in the last hour or so....Fingers and toes crossed:)

I can just about see them through the haze from here, they certainly seem to be towering into something big - a lot bigger than cumulus if I can see them!

maquiladora · 19-07-2013 3:23pm

GFS shows good LI and CAPE values in the midwest around 6pm. We'll see if anything kicks off around then. So far cloud heights don't seem to be rising any higher on satellite.

highdef · 19-07-2013 4:56pm

From my viewpoint looking WSW, there are some very large towering CUs and the cap seems to be on the verge of being broken. Recording video out the window so hope to capture it happening.....if it happens, of course!

maquiladora · 19-07-2013 5:31pm

Some good thunderstorm potential on the 12Z GFS for Monday and especially Tuesday. A lot of precip on Wednesday then pushing up from the south as that low clashes with the warmer airmass, though I'm not sure if there would be a thundery component to that rain.

maquiladora · 19-07-2013 6:15pm

Some precip starting to appear on radar now.

whitebriar · 19-07-2013 6:18pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The only reason I wouldn't be wishing for something on that scale is that hundreds of farm animals were killed by lightning and large hail that also damaged a lot of crops. There was damage to property from flash flooding too.

But yeah of course I hope we get some severe storms. Just nothing too severe.

Was that the day of the Simple minds concert in croker?
We walked from town to Goatstown at 3am,no taxis but the forks of lightning were unreal,street lights were dimming but no rain untill we got to home,then,the heavens opened,power cuts in D14 from the lightning strikes and it downpoured most of the following day too.

There's certainly plenty energy for severe storms next week if the flow is from Biscay/France.
Too much maratime and its curtains.

Rikand · 19-07-2013 6:19pm

Just had a lone raindrop on my phone screen. Some darkish clouds hovering around athlone...

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion 2013/14

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