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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,070 ✭✭✭Kutebride


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    To get back on topic..

    Models still showing the same thing for next week with Ireland having dominance from high pressure for at least a few days. Things start differing between models by this time next week however.

    The GFS wants to retrogress the high to the north and northwest with low pressure invading from the Atlantic forming deep lows running on a southerly tracking jet stream. Looks pretty awful and quite a different run from the previous few following the lovely weather of next week.

    The ECM attempts to retrogress the high at the very end of its run but it keeps pressure generally high over us.

    EC clusters from this morning's 0z run want to retrogress the high a bit to our northwest by the end of next week and into the weekend or following week but not to the extent that the GFS 12z shows so low pressure systems do not affect Ireland here. It stays dry but maybe a tilt to the wind in it being more of a northeasterly direction so be cooler particularly in eastern regions.

    Eeek. Trying to interpret this. Not a full week of sunshine then? Cooler by next Saturday?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Did you not get a decent thunderstorm during May 2001? The storms came all the way up from Biscay. It would be great to see something similar this summer!

    I remember getting one thunderstorm around then, but it was nothing spectacular and only lasted about 45 minutes in the middle of the afternoon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I remember getting one thunderstorm around then, but it was nothing spectacular and only lasted about 45 minutes in the middle of the afternoon.

    Strange.
    We got a great one at night. There was impressive fork lightining all over the place for over an hour.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Kutebride wrote: »
    Eeek. Trying to interpret this. Not a full week of sunshine then? Cooler by next Saturday?

    High pressure will dominate the scene through Sunday to Wednesday at least next week with easterly to southeasterly winds being the main influence. This will result in sunny spells and a lot of dry weather. Coolest conditions on eastern coasts with maximum temperatures ranging between 13-16c depending on if the wind is onshore or offshore. West will be best in terms of temperatures with 17-19c not out of the woods. The strong May sunshine may result in a place or two scraping 20c based on current guidance.

    The trend of the models is for the anticyclone to retrogress to our northwest by later next week into the weekend with lower pressure nearing to our south. Winds will continue to be of an easterly influence but a tilt will mean the origin of the air will change. This is a complex pattern as the low pressure could correspond to the northern blocking with a trough right underneath it and go through us on a southerly tracking jet stream (i.e. rain band after rain band, something that Summer 2012 was infamous for) - more on this in a bit below. Or the northern blocking could have some influence by sending a ridge down to Ireland and keeping the low pressure systems to our south and or affecting southern/SE England instead. The thing to keep in mind with this is that whilst it could stay dry with some influence from ridging, it would be cooler than average temperature wise.

    Signals looking very dodgy for the end of May and start of June with this northern blocking over Greenland that models want to setup. Beijing Climate Centre model showing a very unsettled and cool (maybe even cold) period to end May and into much of June. The pattern it shows is about as far as you can get from a warm and dry scenario. Looking at other long range models, it seems to be on its own at the moment in going to that extent of a poor pattern. CanSIPS shows a non-descript June as does CFS if a little more on the poor side as there is some blocking to our north.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    It is starting to look like 2012 again. I thought we would get a pattern of the azores high ridging in, with brief Atlantic interruptions, but that seems to be the wrong call. Still it's early days to write off the whole summer at this point!

    Yeah, I share the same sentiments there with you that it's looking very 2012-esque.

    Early days yes, the season hasn't even started meteorologically speaking. Quite difficult to remember that given the charts was shown today. To put a bit of positivity, latest CanSIPS and CFS look nice and settled or warm for July and August but of course, that doesn't really matter as it's just for fun considering they're long range models.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭compsys


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yeah, I share the same sentiments there with you that it's looking very 2012-esque.

    Early days yes, the season hasn't even started meteorologically speaking. Quite difficult to remember that given the charts was shown today. To put a bit of positivity, latest CanSIPS and CFS look nice and settled or warm for July and August but of course, that doesn't really matter as it's just for fun considering they're long range models.

    Well we were promised an epic winter according to many with all the charts pointing towards great potential for cold and snow. We know how that turned out.

    No point reading into too much just yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    compsys wrote: »
    Well we were promised an epic winter according to many with all the charts pointing towards great potential for cold and snow. We know how that turned out.

    No point reading into too much just yet.

    This Winter, there was blocking but there was also an Azores High very evident (not good for cold and snow) as the Atlantic sea surface temperature profile favoured its influence which was always going to be one issue with the Winter as highlighted in my forecast on 27 November. I still have yet to do my review on the forecast and the season.

    February 2019 was an extreme event with a pattern that was perfect for record-breaking warm temperatures in the UK and some parts of Ireland that I don't think anyone could have really anticipated.

    In a recent analysis, it was shown that there seems to be some sort of bias towards -NAO in these models. This could be similar to what is happening right now with this signalled extensive northern blocking for the end of May and going into June. However, what one has to keep in mind here is that this is the time of year when northern blocking is most frequent on average - before the European monsoon season gets going or as touted often the "Return of the Westerlies" in the second half of June onwards.

    May 2018 had an anomalous +NAO setup in contrast to May 2019 so far which continued on throughout the Summer, the Autumn and the Winter. It was an exceptional pronounced period of +NAO with record breaking sigma (despite the high frequency of easterly winds from May to July 2018 which are often associated with -NAO). The opposite might happen this year? I wouldn't be surprised with the events that have already occurred in 2019 like Feb 2019 warm spell vs Feb/Mar 2018 Beast from the East or May Day Bank Holiday Weekend warm 2018 vs cold 2019.

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1126524267460485120


  • Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭catrat12


    Any update lads


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    catrat12 wrote: »
    Any update lads

    next 5 days looks decent. Unsettled and cool from next weekend with the final third of May more like what we had over the past week, maybe not quite as cold as that tho.


  • Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭catrat12


    Gonzo wrote: »
    next 5 days looks decent. Unsettled and cool from next weekend with the final third of May more like what we had over the past week, maybe not quite as cold as that tho.

    Cheers


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,480 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Gonzo wrote: »
    next 5 days looks decent. Unsettled and cool from next weekend with the final third of May more like what we had over the past week, maybe not quite as cold as that tho.

    Much rain forecast after thurs or will it just be showers?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Much rain forecast after thurs or will it just be showers?

    mostly showers, looks like east winds for the remainder of the month, plenty of showers and temps low to mid teens for the most part, possibly lasting into first week of June as well. The next few days could well be the warmest/driest conditions of this month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Not much rain signalled for Sligo really till June. Could be about 30 or 40mm by then here. Ground very hard here but no drought as surrounding towns hv had showers and run off has rivers fairly ok though in boyle today some of their river was completely dry. Also on way to Strandhill the other day there was cracks in the soil like last year.

    I think we are going to have another drier than normal Summer with short wet periods. Nothing like 2007 to 2012 up here i would hope.

    Augusts seem to be very wet though.

    Anyways going on topic the plus 120 charts dont show huge rain but next runs might bring wetter spells .

    So far I would summarize 2019 in Sligo

    January Cold at the very end with decent snow the rest blaaah
    February A very mild month. No frost
    March 2nd Wettest March on record
    April Dry and warm at Easter
    May so far Very Dry but wet in many other locations in Ireland


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cool charts from the ECM 12Z with a Northerly flow plunging down over the country at the end of it's run. Nothing definite but just a marker to see if a cool trend continues to show up over the coming runs.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    -3 uppers in June. If ever we needed more justification to emigrate.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sdanseo wrote: »
    -3 uppers in June. If ever we needed more justification to emigrate.

    final week of May and into the first week of June is looking very much like mid autumn, possibly very cold for the time of year and unsettled, wouldn't be surprised to see some ground frost or wintry showers on high ground if the ensembles come off with -3 or -4 uppers possible.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-05-18&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Certainly trending cool out to the end of the ECM 0Z run.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭daydorunrun


    Just wondering how people see things shaping up for early June? The charts look cool and unsettled to my uneducated eye.

    This time last year we started to see some great (warm and settled) weather appearing on the charts. Hoping for a repeat but not too hopeful. Here's MT's weather from this time last year-

    Tuesday, 22 May, 2018

    Forecasts for Ireland

    TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, although rather cloudy near some south-facing coastlines. Warmer with highs about 18 to 21 C for most, 14 to 17 C east coast and south coast. Slight chance of a very isolated and brief shower or thundershower during the afternoon, most likely in west Munster.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mild. Lows 6 to 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Mostly sunny, warm in western and central counties, cooler near east and south coasts. Highs about 19 to 22 C for most, and 15 to 18 C in some cooler coastal districts.

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, warm, scattered showers developing mostly in midlands, inland south. These will bring 2 to 5 mm rainfalls to some locations but many will remain dry. Lows 6 to 10 C and highs 16 to 21 C.

    FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine, isolated showers possible. Lows 8 to 12 C and highs 17 to 23 C.

    SATURDAY and SUNDAY will see an increase in cloud leading to some passing showers or thunderstorms in light to moderate southeast winds. Except where raining, it should be quite warm although sea breezes may cool a few coastal locations. Highs both days could reach 23 or 24 C (central and western counties in particular).

    OUTLOOK ... This warm spell keeps on going about one day longer each new day of guidance, but it will of course eventually break down some time, possibly beyond the first of June though. As the forecast shows, it won't be perfectly dry and sunny all the time, a few minor disturbances will continue as long as the warmth persists, and the eventual breakdown seems likely to be a rather cool northerly spell of unknown duration.

    “You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.” Homer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The pattern we're in at the moment is a bit of a "col" with pressure tending to weaken somewhat day by day over Greenland and the NAO attempting to go more toward a positive phase. This results in a strengthening of the Azores High later this week and the westerlies returning. However, both the GFS and ECM want to retrogress the Azores High up to Greenland again this time next week forming another northern blocking feature and sending the NAO into negativity (-NAO has dominated this May).

    Retrogression of high pressure to Greenland will result in cool and unsettled conditions to end May if current models were to verify. This scenario is very well supported in the ECM clusters with a trough of below average heights parking itself over us and to our east drawing in a northwesterly to northerly flow of air. There'd be plenty of showers I would have thought with this. Mind you, ECM clusters don't look overly unsettled for Ireland as they do for the east of the UK.

    Daytime temperatures at best in the low teens, a far cry from last year when we would have been in high teens to low or mid 20s!

    gfs-0-174.png?0

    ECM1-168.GIF?21-12

    Very long way out so just for fun. GFS has been consistently running with building high pressure somewhere near us during the first week of June. The positioning of the high pressure would be important to knowing what air mass and temperatures we would likely get. Some have had the high pressure building to our east drawing in a southerly to southeasterly airflow - temperatures in the east of Ireland would likely be low 20s. Some have had the high pressure build through us which with a relatively cool end to May wouldn't be particularly warm at first as warm air is not established. However, we're very much nearing the time of year when the sun is at its strongest so there would be a case of the sun making it feel much warmer than what it is.

    gfs-0-312.png?0

    Currently, there is zero support for the GFS in the ECM clusters on having this anticyclonic or warm first week of June 2019 so it's extremely unlikely.

    For now, it looks like we'll be having a very different end to May 2019 compared to May 2018.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    If the Daily Star days this it has to be right !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/780301/uk-weather-forecast-tropical-plume-hot-temperatures

    Yesterday it was a heatwave today its doom and gloom, does anyone ever question when they put out stories like these.

    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/780600/weather-forecast-uk-met-office-rain-weather-outlook-maps-bank-holiday-weekend


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    For what its worth...Its usually miles off but didn't do that badly last summer


    https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2019-europe-summer-forecast/70008315


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    patneve2 wrote: »
    For what its worth...Its usually miles off but didn't do that badly last summer


    https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2019-europe-summer-forecast/70008315

    Sounds like a situation with HP to centred to our southeast but strong enough to influence us and LP to the northwest to me. Could be wrong though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Impossible to know what this Summer will bring but surely cyclonic can be ruled out at least in the medium term.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I can see this being a typical Irish summer, with some short lived dry, warm spells but plenty of standard Atlantic fair keeping Ireland cooler and more unsettled than any other part of Europe. I am not expecting anything like last summer.

    London and the south-east of England could get a very warm or even hot summer with HP from the continent often clinging on in those areas with Ireland and north-western half of the UK under more of an Atlantic influence.

    We shall see what happens.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing ridging developing up over Ireland with the Jet tracking to the N of Ireland at the end of next week, getting milder again from around Thurs and looking like Sat and Sun giving temps into the 20's if it were to happen like this.

    Showing us under the influence of HP centered over Europe with Atlantic weather trying to make inroads but signs of HP building again at the end of the run around Monday week.


    In the unreliable time frame though with lots of moving parts.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    A long way off yet, but dare we think it: Leaving Cert weather!

    198-778PUK.GIF?25-6


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sdanseo wrote: »
    A long way off yet, but dare we think it: Leaving Cert weather!

    Hope not! Preferably have such weather after 20th June! :P

    Post incoming on the runs this morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    There was some hints from the GFS in a previous post I did on a warmer and more settled start to June but there was zero support for it within the ECM ensembles so it was a very unlikely scenario. However, many signals have now shifted towards this outcome with high pressure building near us through the first week of June ushering in warmer temperatures and dry weather.

    GFS 0z became warmer and warmer and more anticyclonic as the run went on with a big area of high pressure building near the second week of June and easterly winds.

    The GFS 06z was a mostly anticyclonic run for the start of June (moreso for the first week than the 0z as high pressure is closer at that time frame) with high pressure just to our southeast drawing in a warm southeasterly flow which becomes southerly later for a time as low pressure attempts to attack from the west. We wouldn't be talking about heatwave standard conditions with the 06z (compared to the end of the 0z which was indicative of 2018) but high teens and low 20s over Ireland for a few days, reasonable spells of hazy sunshine too.

    gfs-0-192.png?6

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    The ECM 0z shows the high for Ireland more as a weak ridge with westerlies keeping things humid and relatively cooler temperature wise. Similar to its 12z yesterday that Meteorite58 posted about above.

    ApExFDA.gif

    In terms of the ECM clusters, they look extremely similar to the ECM operational actually with westerly winds keeping Ireland cloudier and cooler than the south of the UK.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052500_192.png

    Warmer than average conditions are favoured during the first week of June from the GEFS 06z although still quite a few going cool. Looks changeable in terms of rainfall however.

    pwpmLn4.png

    Signals have certainly shifted towards the warmer and drier side for early June but still maybe not so clear as you'd expect given 1st June is 7 days away, as the ECM looks more changeable and cooler.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Looks like the warmer, settled weather is off the cards going by latest models, with the ridge staying well to our southeast and resulting in some fine conditions over England for a time from Friday 31st to Sunday 2nd. Ireland looks humid and cloudy with high teens temperatures at best generally during the period and quickly going back to mid teens (13-16c) through the first week of June. ECM has consistently been showing such a scenario (including its ensembles), compared to the GFS which is now in line with the ECM.

    gfs-0-192.png?6

    ECM1-192.GIF?27-12

    One reason why this ridge from the Azores looks very brief and fails to build towards Ireland is due to northern blocking continuing. Latest GEFS show the NAO staying negative through the first half of June, indicative of Greenland blocking and a weak Azores High.

    The North Atlantic SSTs are trending towards those favoured for -NAO with a tripole setting up it looks like (good for cold and snow in Winter but in Summer usually means cold and wet). Probably an spin off effect from this very blocked May in the North Atlantic.

    nao.sprd2.gif

    EC clusters from the 0z do not show much change to the pattern by the second week of June with conditions staying cool and unsettled. Yes, options #1 and #3 here at +336 hrs away look warmer but still on the unsettled side for Ireland particularly option #1 which would be thundery I would think.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019052700_336.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some unsettled weather being showing up for next week by the ECM ,GFS and GEM. All showing a Zonal Jet at first with a Southerly aspect to it, Ireland on the wrong side of it, and later a more Meridional flow.

    Difference in the look of the LP's , ECM showing a large area of LP deepening as it approaches and develops over us next Tues /Weds , looks windy and wet. This is going to change over coming runs, so nothing definite yet.

    GFS showing a series of LP's, not as deep as the ECM

    In general looks like a cool week with plenty of rain and could be quite wet along Atlantic counties and the Western half of the country it would seem.


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