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Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS has it as a rain event, could be very knife-edge stuff. should produce snow over high ground.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Normally those models are the other way around. ICON hit the pub early today?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The LP projected to cross the country Saturday a bit further S on latest runs keeping the strongest winds off the coast initially and becoming very windy with Gales around coasts later that evening when the Winds veer to a NW'ly direction and remaining blustery into Sun. Pulling down much colder airs leading to wintry showers later Sat / Sun and feeling very cold in the wind on Sunday . Quite wet along Atlantic coastal counties .



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  • Registered Users Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    An incorrect data output regarding icon. - 8 over Scotland and it's raining while - 5 with snow, not a chance


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yes Monday trough passing over the country in a NW airflow, cold uppers approx -5C or so, wintry looking , perhaps wet snow on hills / mountains ?

    I agree sadenso , ICON very slow to show snowy conditions.

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    Tues just on the edge of 120hrs looking very cold on present runs ( been showing it now for a few days ) Charts at present showing snow / wintry showers throughout the day along Atlantic counties and some possibly settling on the ground into Weds . Bit away yet to know for certain .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON 18Z looking quite windy on the coasts and gusty over land later Sat into Sun.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    sdanseo wrote: »
    ICON calling for significant snow on Monday (+93hrs only) with just -5 uppers

    Calling GL - calling GL - your thoughts? ICON usually pessimistic for wintry stuff.

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    I don't have an ICON sounding but the ARPEGE is showing a marginal situation imby by midday Monday (96 hrs). Warmer air in place earlier in the morning so the sounding below shows it after cooling down in the northwesterly. This would give heavy sleet at low levels but snow above around 150 metres (MSL pressure will be a bit higher than the 1000 hPa shown).

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Car crash models this morning if its cold you want. That said the variation in outcome model run by model run is so great for every model that you would be as well reading tea leaves to guess the next fortnights weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The 00Z ARPEGE completely gets rid of that marginal situation I posted above and replaces it with at most a light rain setup, with no hint of snow.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Euro 4 showing the strong winds in coastal areas Sat evening into Sun, very blustery overland also .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Well getting closer perhaps to seeing a snow /ice thread coming for next Tues/ Weds :)

    I will put these up and we will see what the 12Z ECM run shows coming out soon. A wintry day Tues windy in parts , mainly Southern counties and bitter cold, very sharp frosts after dark and potentially very icy roads from a lot of mixed precipitation sweeping the country on Tues, potential for snow accumulations.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    Total novice here guys but just looking at the Atlantic charts for next Tuesday and the possibility of snow accumulations - How can you get accumulations with surface Atlantic temperatures appearing relatively high and the snow showers appearing to stream in from the Atlantic? Sorry if its a stupid question ...

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    irishfeen wrote: »
    Total novice here guys but just looking at the Atlantic charts for next Tuesday and the possibility of snow accumulations - How can you get accumulations with surface Atlantic temperatures appearing relatively high and the snow showers appearing to stream in from the Atlantic?

    If the airmass is cold enough off Greenland and the windspeed high enough then the air will not modify too much and snow will result. However, this is rarely the case. The 2000-km+ sea track usually modifies the air too much and, as you say, leads to the wrong side of marginal for proper snow to all levels. This will be the case again this week.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    irishfeen wrote: »
    Total novice here guys but just looking at the Atlantic charts for next Tuesday and the possibility of snow accumulations - How can you get accumulations with surface Atlantic temperatures appearing relatively high and the snow showers appearing to stream in from the Atlantic? Sorry if its a stupid question ...

    No Expert myself irishfeen but what is showing up in the charts is an airmas set to move over us sourced from a NW'ly / N direction . Cold upper air sourced from Polar / Greenland regions. Cold air over relatively warm SST's aid convection resulting in numerous showers, embedded troughs etc. Cold air just on the right side of marginal I think to produce snow, albeit wet. In all looks like a day of wintry precipitation, rain, sleet, hail, possible thunder and snow on hills and mountains, will see closer if we get some snow on sea level.

    Been holding this pattern now for numerous runs.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECMWF 12Z has developed that deep depression( possible storm ) more than the other models for Fri, the others are catching up but not as strong as the ECM , ICON coming second closest . Bit to go yet and could track a bit further North and not as strong as is showing presently but could also strengthen, one to keep an eye on.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Is there a date /time on those?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Building Hp over Europe keeping the LP's out in the Atlantic but tight gradient along with the Jet keeping winds strong up along Atlantic coasts at times and breezy overland.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 907 ✭✭✭scuby




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    to quote the guy in Armageddon , OK egg heads what does this mean?? lay mans terms!


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    rusty cole wrote: »
    to quote the guy in Armageddon , OK egg heads what does this mean?? lay mans terms!

    This is the Technical Discussion only thread - go to the Winter thread if you want a laymans translation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,480 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    MJohnston wrote: »
    This is the Technical Discussion only thread - go to the Winter thread if you want a laymans translation.

    Bit harsh,is it not possible for someone to explain it in this thread for the poster


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Bit harsh,is it not possible for someone to explain it in this thread for the poster

    No, it's not harsh really, it's in the title of the thread and in the mod note in the first post:
    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

    Basically this is a space for the eggheads to talk to other eggheads!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,480 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    MJohnston wrote: »
    No, it's not harsh really, it's in the title of the thread and in the mod note in the first post:



    Basically this is a space for the eggheads to talk to other eggheads!
    He asked what the chart meant,can that not be discussed as per the charter and mod note?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    giveitarestholly


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    MJohnston wrote: »
    This is the Technical Discussion only thread - go to the Winter thread if you want a laymans translation.
    Bit harsh,is it not possible for someone to explain it in this thread for the poster
    MJohnston wrote: »
    No, it's not harsh really, it's in the title of the thread and in the mod note in the first post:

    Basically this is a space for the eggheads to talk to other eggheads!
    He asked what the chart meant,can that not be discussed as per the charter and mod note?

    Disclaimer: not an attempt to backseat mod, just opinion.

    Ah lads the chap asked a question, is it not more reasonable to just answer it than go all out at the fine print in the charter like a supreme court trying to interpret the constitution?

    Yes we don't want too much walter mitty stuff in here but the question was asked light-heartedly and no one is ever going to want to learn more from us if the first answer we give is "feck off you're in the wrong thread". A simpler explanation of the tehnicalities of the chart might encourage the poster to start picking up their own ability over time. That's how I got involved, because when I asked questions, regardless of how technical, people were kind enough to reply.

    tl;dr Just because you can doesn't mean you should and all that.
    rusty cole wrote: »
    to quote the guy in Armageddon , OK egg heads what does this mean?? lay mans terms!

    High pressure (mild and warm) over the continent will keep all the low pressure (wet, windy, storms etc) over the Atlantic.

    In between the two, air will be forced into a relatively long and narrow channel causing it to be potentially windy, probably a good bit of southerly wind coming up.

    All that with a heap of salt because anything beyond 4-5 days is unreliable unless a good many models agree on very similar solutions.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Where the wind warning for Kerry is coming from for tomorrow night.

    HP over Europe doing a good job of keeping out those LP systems for now.

    https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/1098235395651915776

    https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1098220063369367552

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




This discussion has been closed.
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