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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,553 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    pauldry wrote: »
    Definitely the GFS is overcooking Saturday

    By the time it happens it will just be a blustery day

    Why do they do that

    That's crazy. Theyv lost all credibility. Do the Daily Express do their charts?

    Yes it's true Pauldry, they nearly always post the day after tomorrow scenarios with storm systems several days before hand only to downgrade everything in subsequent runs. I suppose they will be right eventually. We might have all kicked the bucket by then though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z ( as the earlier run ) came in line with the rest of the models in bringing very strong winds over Ireland for Saturday, more so along Atlantic coastal counties. The storm is shown to be deepening on approach with the ECM showing it get down to 950 hPa , the others not as low but close , to about 955 hPa or so. Currently across the models would think are showing gusting 120 to 130 km/h along coastal counties from Kerry to Donegal as the strong winds sweep up along the coasts from Sat morning to late Sat night /early Sunday morning. Strong winds over land with highest gusts over the middle third of the country gusting up around 110 km/h from the afternoon until the evening.

    Slow enough moving system.

    Will need to see if this holds it's track, timing and strength.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    My theory is that models overcook storms because they assume that storms will develop as they once easily did in the past, and maybe this is down to models possibly relying too much on reanalysis data in order to predict the present. Either that or there is dodgy data being fed into the 'starting conditions'.

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    So at just around 60 hrs away the models are all fairly similar with track and strength at this stage. Approaching and deepening from the W and tracking relatively slowly close to the W and NW and drifting N towards N of Scotland.

    Looks like an extremely cold day with a considerable windchill, wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow showers, prolonged rain early Saturday and could see a band of frontal rain turn to sleet and snow from mid morning but that will need to be fine tuned nearer the event. Rainfall totals wont help the flooding situation.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Yes these weather forecasting charts are a joke...they only start forecasting the storm properly a day or two out...and by that stage the storm is already developing and all we have to do is check the weather buoys out at sea...these charts are useless we have not got better at forecasting long range at all...weather supercomputers my a**e




  • SW under particular threat if the GFS turns out correct.

    63-515UK_vuf6.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah GFS looks very strong but a bit Southerly compared to the bunch. In saying that ICON is after going very wayward in the latest run delaying the system and showing the strongest winds later in the day. This looks against the run of play from the main models. I think an average between the ECM , ARPEGE and UKMO perhaps.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,835 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya can just predict tomorrows messages on boards

    "GFS not showing as strong as before"

    "System seems to weaken a lot before it reaches us"

    "Looks like a windy day but only 100kph now"


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    My theory is that models overcook storms because they assume that storms will develop as they once easily did in the past, and maybe this is down to models possibly relying too much on reanalysis data in order to predict the present. Either that or there is dodgy data being fed into the 'starting conditions'.

    The NWP models we are familiar with don't use any historical data. They are basically just given the current snapshot of the atmosphere and blindly number crunch physics equations into the future.

    There is an interesting type of "post processing" that can be applied to NWP output called Model Output Statistics, that can tweak output based on historical data and known model bias etc.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_output_statistics


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Rougies wrote: »
    The NWP models we are familiar with don't use any historical data. They are basically just given the current snapshot of the atmosphere and blindly number crunch physics equations into the future.

    There is an interesting type of "post processing" that can be applied to NWP output called Model Output Statistics, that can tweak output based on historical data and known model bias etc.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_output_statistics

    Interesting, thanks.

    I would have thought that there was a certain level of a 'if this, then that' methodology applied in the NWP, but obviously not.

    New Moon





  • More northward track now on the 6Z GFS compared to last night's run.

    60-515UK_vib4.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,835 ✭✭✭pauldry


    And winds easing slightly with each run

    Maybe gusts of 120kph on Atlantic coasts but just a period of heavy rain and sleet looks the most likely outcome. Not a nice day to be out for sure.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    looks like it's going to turn much more unsettled from Saturday and into next week with plenty of wind and rain. I don't think we are going back to regular deluges but it will certainly be unsettled and wet at times.

    This kicks off on Saturday with quite a windy day. Gusts close to 90km/h are possible this Saturday.

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    Tuesday also looking possibly very windy with winds close to 100km/h

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    plenty of rain over next few days too

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking a bit wet and windy on Sunday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Strangely that chart makes me happy Meteorite, a horrible wet windy day sounds nice- no wanderlust to get out beyond our 2k prison tag limit and no guilt for not doing stuff in the garden. I may not even bother getting dressed!


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,703 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    sideswipe wrote:
    Strangely that chart makes me happy Meteorite, a horrible wet windy day sounds nice- no wanderlust to get out beyond our 2k prison tag limit and no guilt for not doing stuff in the garden. I may not even bother getting dressed!


    Feck that, I'm very happily walking within my 2k prison and pottering away at the garden, rain means indoor work


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Feck that, I'm very happily walking within my 2k prison and pottering away at the garden, rain means indoor work

    I get ya. I'd normally agree but we've been blessed for the last 3 weeks and a hibernation day followed by a return to what we've been experiencing only a little milder was what I was thinking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,949 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Any chance of closing this thread? It's April now sick of seeing winter stuff it's over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,080 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Any chance of closing this thread? It's April now sick of seeing winter stuff it's over.

    Maybe if you ask nicely.... :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Farewell winter, it was very poor for coldies although i saw a brief snow shower or two unlike in the winter of 2018/2019. Onwards and upwards.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    another very disappointing winter, very little difference between Autumn and Winter in terms of temperatures and deluges. Hopefully next winter will be a better time for all of us and hopefully it will be a bit more seasonal as well!


This discussion has been closed.
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