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Property Market 2020

13567…352

Comments

  • #62
    ittakestwo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,641 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    As a proportion of sales- new homes have a smaller slice of the pie since anytime in the last decade. They comprise less than 20% of all sales- and as a percentage this proportion is falling. Your hypothesis does not hold.

    looking at the figures posted already 2018 and 2019 had the highest percentage of new sales since 2010. Still only about 20% but around 2012 to 2015 the figure was 15%


  • #63
    Dolbhad
    Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    ittakestwo wrote: »
    looking at the figures posted already 2018 and 2019 had the highest percentage of new sales in the last 10 years. still only about 20% but around 2014/15 the figure was less than 15%

    And new builds do seem to still be going up in price on each phase (unlike second hand houses). I’m waiting for a phase 2 in an estate in Cork to be released which I expect in next 2 months. It will be interesting to see what the price increase will be. I do know what the figure was for phase 1 in the house type I’m looking at. That builder had gone up 15k between phases in other estates they did in last two years. And still have one or two of heir most expensive houses in phase 1 still available.


  • #64
    JamesMason
    Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/commuter-belt-bucks-trend-as-home-sales-tumble-across-state-38836298.html
    Also
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/sales-of-houses-and-apartments-fall-4-overall-1.4130984
    The slowdown looks official now


  • #65
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    JamesMason wrote: »
    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/commuter-belt-bucks-trend-as-home-sales-tumble-across-state-38836298.html
    Also
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/sales-of-houses-and-apartments-fall-4-overall-1.4130984
    The slowdown looks official now

    The property price slowdown looks official. But the articles is abit of a joke.. "Sales of houses and apartments fall 4% overall", "almost two-thirds of counties are expected to have experienced a downturn in property sales when figures are finalised". Check again by the end of January, and you will realise that the actual numbers will be very different.. it's just around half of December sales has been added on PPR.


  • #66
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    "Home sales 'tumble' 3.9% before sales for the remaining 3.85% of the year are recorded" isn't nearly hysterical enough as a headline.


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  • #67
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Graham wrote: »
    "Home sales 'tumble' 3.9% before sales for the remaining 3.85% of the year are recorded" isn't nearly hysterical enough as a headline.

    Would the end of December usually equate to that %of home sales for the year? I didn't see anything happening at the end of December.


  • #68
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    Zenify wrote: »
    Would the end of December usually equate to that %of home sales for the year? I didn't see anything happening at the end of December.

    Surely things still complete in December, sales that began in Sept, Oct and November.

    Agree, nothing much new happens in December, but whats recorded is completions, not properties going sale agreed. As such, I'd nearly expect Jan and Feb to the the quietest months for completion.


  • #69
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Zenify wrote: »
    Would the end of December usually equate to that %of home sales for the year? I didn't see anything happening at the end of December.

    Historically December has the highest number of completed sales. Especially new build, as for various reasons there is interest to complete sale before the end of the year. For some properties it takes time to be added to the Property register database, so we can't really know the numbers for December until at least till the end of January. But in general, based on previous 11 months, sales for 2019 should be higher than 2018.


  • #70
    tobsey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    GetWithIt wrote: »
    I bought my home in 2013. If I’d bought it purely as an investment I’d sell in 2020. Not because of Brexit, supply concerns or even global warming. I’d sell because anyone who bought in 2012, 2013 and 2014 received an exemption for Capital Gains if the property was held for 7 years.

    In a flat, or even a slowly rising market, I’d be losing money as the extra ordinary tax free gains start attracting Capital Gains.

    I'm sure you're right that a lot of investment properties are being sold for that reason, but how would they be losing money from now? CGT I presume is only payable on the increase from on the value going forward 7 years after purchase. So if the property was 200k, now worth 300k, then CGT is payable on any increase above 300k I'd have thought? I know if the value is rising slowly then there isn't much of a return, but with rental yields so high they wouldn't need much appreciation in value. The 300k property would have a pre-tax yield of 7-8% or so. You wouldn't get that yield anywhere else. Even if it was a buy-to-let mortgage that would be for a max of 160k, paying 5% on that wouldn't hit the yield too bad.

    If they sell, what would they reinvest in to get gains close to that? You could try the markets, but they can go down too.


  • #71
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,356 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Graham wrote: »
    "Home sales 'tumble' 3.9% before sales for the remaining 3.85% of the year are recorded" isn't nearly hysterical enough as a headline.

    It very hard to tell what is happening, if prices along the Luas green line or similar very desirable areas were majorly droping that would be saying something about the property market, it's not talking about it sold for 580k last year and the same house is 570k this year.

    There are dozens of property markets, not just one.


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  • #72
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,042 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    tobsey wrote: »
    I'm sure you're right that a lot of investment properties are being sold for that reason, but how would they be losing money from now? CGT I presume is only payable on the increase from on the value going forward 7 years after purchase. So if the property was 200k, now worth 300k, then CGT is payable on any increase above 300k I'd have thought? I know if the value is rising slowly then there isn't much of a return, but with rental yields so high they wouldn't need much appreciation in value. The 300k property would have a pre-tax yield of 7-8% or so. You wouldn't get that yield anywhere else. Even if it was a buy-to-let mortgage that would be for a max of 160k, paying 5% on that wouldn't hit the yield too bad.

    If they sell, what would they reinvest in to get gains close to that? You could try the markets, but they can go down too.

    I could be wrong but I believe the CGT exemption is a use it or lose it type of thing. If they sell this year they get the 100k and pay no CGT, if they sell next year and the value goes up 10k, then they pay CGT on the whole 110k increase in value. In that case, they would lose money by not selling now. It would be better for them to sell the place and buy a similar property for the same money instead of keeping it as that way they lock in the CGT exemption.


  • #73
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    I'm hoping to buy this year and it'll have to be a second-hand job.
    More than likely I won't be able to buy something turn-key. I'm fine with doing some work but I only want to do work that is putting stuff in, not taking stuff out. I can paint it myself. I have mates who can lift stuff, I can get tiling done very cheap, same with plumbing.
    I imagine the worry for people buying a fixer-upper would be along the lines of mine: How much? As soon as you start making structural or large changes it opens a can of worms. Moving a radiator can be a small job but what if it isn't? Something goes wrong and you have to get someone else in and hand over 100 quid for them to tell you who you need.
    While there is an element of time/ability I think the potential cost and tight margins when getting a mortgage may be the bigger issue with people wanting somewhere they can more or less move straight into.


  • #74
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    mariaalice wrote: »
    It very hard to tell what is happening, if prices along the Luas green line or similar very desirable areas were majorly droping that would be saying something about the property market, it's not talking about it sold for 580k last year and the same house is 570k this year.

    There are dozens of property markets, not just one.

    The percentages refer to volume of sales rather than value.


  • #75
    cruizer101
    Registered Users Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    AlmightyCushion wrote: »
    I could be wrong but I believe the CGT exemption is a use it or lose it type of thing. If they sell this year they get the 100k and pay no CGT, if they sell next year and the value goes up 10k, then they pay CGT on the whole 110k increase in value. In that case, they would lose money by not selling now. It would be better for them to sell the place and buy a similar property for the same money instead of keeping it as that way they lock in the CGT exemption.

    Relief over 7 years is on a proportion basis, here is example, taken from here

    Example: Property acquired on 1 March 2012 for €500,000 and sold on 2 March
    2022 for €800,000 – i.e. property owned for a full 10 years.
    Gain of €300,000 is partially relieved:
    Gain €300,000
    Less Relief 300,000 x 7/10 €210,000
    Chargeable Gain € 90,000

    So while there may be some incentive to dispose of the property its not a use it or lose it case where you have to sell by specific date or lose out.


  • #76
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    just taking a quick browse on the price changes on myhome in dublin.

    The first page, listing price changes from 2nd on Jan on-wards has 19 properties listed. 14 of these have dropped their price and 5 increased. Biggest drops obviously in the 400k + market. So looks like the pre christmas trend is continuing. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. possibly stabilise out over this year, but cant see the overall trend going the other way anytime soon


  • #77
    Woshy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭Woshy


    Is there a way on myhome or daft to see a history of a property - e.g .when it was first entered. Daftdrop isn't online anymore.

    I'm looking at a property that was last refreshed in Oct 2019 but I'm wondering if it's been on the market longer than this.


  • #78
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,318 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Woshy wrote: »
    Is there a way on myhome or daft to see a history of a property - e.g .when it was first entered. Daftdrop isn't online anymore.

    I'm looking at a property that was last refreshed in Oct 2019 but I'm wondering if it's been on the market longer than this.
    They used to display this but I think it was nerfed


  • #79
    RandomUsername
    Registered Users Posts: 272 ✭✭RandomUsername


    Woshy wrote:
    I'm looking at a property that was last refreshed in Oct 2019 but I'm wondering if it's been on the market longer than this. Is there a way on myhome or daft to see a history of a property - e.g .when it was first entered. Daftdrop isn't online anymore.

    You used to be able to search daft by date entered oldest first and it gave the date of first entry. I don't know if it still works but give it a try, just refine down to the local area.


  • #80
    beanyb
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭beanyb


    RandomUsername wrote: »
    You used to be able to search daft by date entered oldest first and it gave the date of first entry. I don't know if it still works but give it a try, just refine down to the local area.

    This does still work. It's after you do the search, you sort by date entered at the top of the results and it'll sort from new to old showing the date entered on each listing. A v handy trick!


  • #81
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    Just as prices start to subside, boom, whack on another 4% on to new builds commencing from this year. Genuinly hope climate change wipes us out.


    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/tough-new-energy-ratings-expected-to-increase-construction-cost-of-residential-properties-by-up-to-4pc-38841043.html


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  • #82
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,335 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    NZE is a good thing tbh. Doesn't really make sense why anyone wouldn't want it.


  • #83
    Sheeps
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Sheeps


    awec wrote: »
    NZE is a good thing tbh. Doesn't really make sense why anyone wouldn't want it.

    NZE doesn't save you money if you can't afford the house in the first place. Infact it reduces my options for purchasing to lower energy efficient housing because I'll need another 7 months to save the 15k I need to bridge the gap to what the cost increase will be. After 7 months I'll be back to where I am now in terms of what I can afford.


  • #84
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,523 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I'm beginning to think that the increased build quality requirements need to be allayed in another way cost-wise due to just how much more expensive a new house is to build - but I have no idea what would work best.

    Removing/reducing VAT would require significant watching of the market to make sure it doesn't just become extra margin; ditto reducing development levies / infrastructure requirements. And doing that would create higher demands on the exchequer and local taxation while new builds are still not paying any property tax.


  • #85
    GetWithIt
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭GetWithIt


    cruizer101 wrote: »
    Relief over 7 years is on a proportion basis, here is example, taken from here

    Example: Property acquired on 1 March 2012 for €500,000 and sold on 2 March
    2022 for €800,000 – i.e. property owned for a full 10 years.
    Gain of €300,000 is partially relieved:
    Gain €300,000
    Less Relief 300,000 x 7/10 €210,000
    Chargeable Gain € 90,000

    So while there may be some incentive to dispose of the property its not a use it or lose it case where you have to sell by specific date or lose out.
    This is my understanding.

    The incentive in a flat market is that after 7 years I may have a gain of 300k which attracts no capital gains. After 10 years I may still have a gain of 300k but now have a liability on 3/10s of that gain. With each passing year my liability increases.


  • #86
    GetWithIt
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭GetWithIt


    tobsey wrote: »
    I'm sure you're right that a lot of investment properties are being sold for that reason, but how would they be losing money from now? CGT I presume is only payable on the increase from on the value going forward 7 years after purchase. So if the property was 200k, now worth 300k, then CGT is payable on any increase above 300k I'd have thought? I know if the value is rising slowly then there isn't much of a return, but with rental yields so high they wouldn't need much appreciation in value. The 300k property would have a pre-tax yield of 7-8% or so. You wouldn't get that yield anywhere else. Even if it was a buy-to-let mortgage that would be for a max of 160k, paying 5% on that wouldn't hit the yield too bad.

    If they sell, what would they reinvest in to get gains close to that? You could try the markets, but they can go down too.
    Your presumption on the way CGT would be calculated is incorrect.

    It doesn’t matter to as it’s my home. For someone with 1 or 2 properties, the hassle of selling and reinvesting may not be worth it. But if I was some form of REIT that bought a heap of apartment blocks then it would certainly be on the agenda at the AGM.


  • #87
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    JamesMason wrote: »
    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/commuter-belt-bucks-trend-as-home-sales-tumble-across-state-38836298.html
    Also
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/sales-of-houses-and-apartments-fall-4-overall-1.4130984
    The slowdown looks official now

    It's interesting timing too. Tens of thousands of homes absolutely must be built to sustain demand. Politically, this is the single biggest issue and will not go anywhere until meaningful action is taken.

    As such, with significant more dwellings brought to the market over the next five to ten years, price growth must continue to slowdown or reverse it would seem for this time period.


  • #88
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    will be interesting come election time what proposals they make as housing and health are going to be the 2 big issues. Is there a vacant property tax in?? i still see so many derelict properties in premium locations where i live


  • #89
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    19233974 wrote: »
    will be interesting come election time what proposals they make as housing and health are going to be the 2 big issues. Is there a vacant property tax in?? i still see so many derelict properties in premium locations where i live

    What about all those properties which belong to people availing of the 'Fair Deal' scheme that are vacant- there are several tens of thousands of them...…...


  • #90
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    What about all those properties which belong to people availing of the 'Fair Deal' scheme that are vacant- there are several tens of thousands of them...…...

    that absolutely needs to be sorted, although id wonder how many are actually vacant and not being lived in rent free by family members.


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  • #91
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,980 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    19233974 wrote: »
    that absolutely needs to be sorted, although id wonder how many are actually vacant and not being lived in rent free by family members.

    There is no official documentation for it but from my experience, the houses are usually left empty.


This discussion has been closed.
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