December 2018 Boards weather forecast contest.

After the first week of December ...

IMT on 7.7 C which is 1.5 above normal for the period 1-7 Dec.

MAX 14.3 and MIN -2.8 so far.

PRC generally quite high, average 169% of normal.

SUN was only 72% of normal (431/600).

---

(John mac if you read this, check for message sent, I need a max and min for Dub A on 25th from you, thanks).

After three (soggy) weeks ...

IMT now on 7.4, the third week averaged 7.2, which was 1.7 above normal. Looks like the rest of the month may be somewhat colder although staying mild in the west, would speculate that we might end up around 6.6 or so.

MAX hangs on at 14.3 and MIN waits to be relieved from --2.8. I could imagine both of these being replaced by slightly more extreme (but not very extreme) values.

PRC now 167% of normal, the third week managed 202%. This already guarantees an outcome of about 113% and with rain expected on Sunday, we could say 120% or thereabouts is guaranteed for end of month, but not a large amount forecast from 24th to 31st, so perhaps the end result around 125%.

SUN stayed on the previous 62% with this week at 63% (377/600). This could rise somewhat if the high later in the month isn't too cloudy, will speculate that it pushes up to about 85% by end of month, but wouldn't count on it. To get all the way to normal would require an average of 180% which is about 3.5 hours a day, so not unthinkable I suppose.

The bonus question looks like a definite no for snow and Dublin A heading for something like a low of 2 to 5 and high of 9 or 10 perhaps, hard to be very precise as the minimum will be dependent on clear or cloudy skies in the early morning. Rather similar to what Con thought anyway (as usual).

A new MAX of 14.7 (not) recorded at Valentia on Sunday 23rd -- see next post. Might happen this week I suppose.

The hourly values posted so far for Dublin (A) range from a low of 3 to a high of 12.

At least the low was not as dire as recently predicted, some colder air formed near Dublin somewhere and parked at the airport for the late overnight hours.

It will be a bit of a logjam for scoring this as a few are close on max, while quite a few are close on min, but the range was larger than most forecasts. It's a definite "no" for snow (one station in eastern England had some in their 0400h report I noticed, so it wasn't all that far away).

A more comprehensive update will appear on the 29th or 30th (my internet access may be limited around then). Enjoy the rest of your holidays, still daytime here and at least some snow to see out the window, in addition to the depressingly grey sky and low ceiling.

I was looking at the scores for the bonus question, while I'm at scoring, I will post the whole table of provisional scores since we have a fairly good idea how this is going to end up now, going with the values shown in the table. This should be regarded as a bit more provisional than usual, but I doubt that any of these estimates will be out by much, max or min could of course change from current values. IMT staying quite high with all this cloud (7.5 through 25th), so will be scoring that by minimum progression. Sunshine staying low and may need the same treatment. MIN will definitely be a case of boosted scoring ...

Provisional scoring for December 2018

FORECASTER _____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus _______ TOTAL


estimated values __ 7.4_ 14.3_-2.8_130_060 _11.6, 3.0, NO



Tae laidir ________ 16*_ 18 _ 15*_ 12 _ 08*___10 __ 3 _____ 82

Adam240610______19*_ 19 _ 13*_ 13 _ 05*___ 9 __ 3 _____ 81

pauldry __________23*_ 16 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 79

Joe Public ________20*_ 14 _ 11*_ 14 _ 06*___10 __ 3 _____ 78

Jpmarn __________24*_ 05 _ 17*_ 08 _ 09*___10 __ 3 _____ 76

Bsal _____________07*_ 17 _ 19*_ 13 _ 07*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 74

mickger844posts __ 10*_ 19 _ 18*_ 05 _ 07*___10 __ 3 _____72

DOCARCH ________12*_ 11 _ 15*_ 13 _ 08*___ 9 __ 3 _____ 71

MrSkinner _______ 19*_ 20 _ 10*_ 02 _ 06*___10 __ 3 _____ 70

Kindred Spirit _____16*_ 14 _ 10*_ 10 _ 07*___10 __ 3 _____ 70


___ Con Sensus ___10* _ 19 _ 10*_ 12 _ 06*___ 9 __ 3 _____ 69


Artane2002 ______ 19*_ 16 _ 15*_ 12 _ 04*____2 __ 0 _____ 68

sdanseo _________ 13*_ 19 _ 11*_ 09 _ 04*___10 __ 0 _____ 66

sryanbruen _______10*_ 15 _ 16*_ 08 _ 03*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 63

M.T. Cranium _____16* _ 18 _ 05*_ 12 _ 04*___ 1 __ 0 _____ 56

200motels ________12*_ 04 _ 12*_ 08 _ 08*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 55

Dacogawa ________10*_ 19 _ 02*_ 14 _ 08*___ 2 __ 0 _____ 55

John mac ________ 07*_ 17 _ 05*_ 12 _ 04*___ 9 __ 0 _____ 54


___ NormaL ______07*_ 13 _ 10*_ 05 _ 06*___10 __ 3 _____ 54



JCX_BXC _________08*_ 18 _ 06*_ 02 _ 03*___ 9 __ 0 _____ 46

waterways _______ 10*_ 06 _ 03*_ 09 _ 07*___ 7 __ 3 _____ 45

Rameire _________ 06*_ 12 _ 10*_ 03 _ 04*___ 6 __ 3 _____ 44

Dasa29__________ 10*_ 00 _ 10*_ 12 _ 02*___ 5 __ 3 _____ 42

Sunflower3 _______05*_ 18 _ 02*_ 05 _ 06*___ 2 __ 0 _____ 38

Bazlers __________05*_ 17 _ 01*_ 08 _ 04*___ 1 __ 0 _____ 36

BLIZZARD7 _ (-1) _ 04*_ 10 _ 00*_ 12 _ 08*___ 0 __ 0 __ 34-1 = 33

Rikand __________ 08*_ 17 _ 01*_ 02 _ 02*___ 0 __ 0 _____ 30

________________________________________________________________________

* IMT, MIN and SUN scored off minimum progression ... SUN scores are set to 80% otherwise so many ties make it difficult to give a fair distribution of scores. This may turn out to be raw scoring if the sun comes out for large parts of the day 27th to 31st.

Bonus scores (max, min 25th) are based on ranges of total error, 4.0 or lower scored 10, 4.1 to 5.0 scored 9, etc. The distribution of scores is fairly top heavy as a result, the closest punt on MAX was Johnmac at 11.2, while sdanseo and Adam240610 were right on with the MIN at --3.0. The lowest combined error was 2.7 from Kindred Spirit.

---

---

---

(actual forecasts)


Jpmarn __________6.8 _ 15.8 _ --5.0 _ 150 _ 085 ___12.5, 5.5 _____ No

pauldry __________6.7 _ 14.7 _ --6.0 _ 135 _ 101 ___ 8.5, 4.0 _____ No

Joe Public ________6.1 _ 14.9 _ --5.9 _ 127 _ 098 ___10.5, 5.2 _____ No

Artane2002 ______ 6.0 _ 14.7 _ --5.2 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 6.0, --1.6 ____Yes _Knock

MrSkinner _______ 6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 100 ___ 8.5, 2.7 ______No

Adam240610_____ 6.0 _ 14.2 _ --5.5 _ 124 _ 104 ___ 7.4, 3.0 ______No

Kindred Spirit _____5.9 _ 14.9 _ --6.0 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 9.9, 4.0 _____ No

M.T. Cranium ____ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 5.0, --2.0 ____ Yes _Knock

Tae laidir ________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ --5.2 _ 138 _ 092 ___ 7.5, 2.3 _____ No

sdanseo _________5.8 _ 14.2 _ --5.9 _ 112 _ 108 ___ 7.8, 3.0 ______ Yes _Ballyhaise

200motels _______ 5.7_ 15.9 _ --5.8 _ 110 _ 092 ___ 6.5, 2.2 ______ No

DOCARCH _______ 5.7 _ 15.3 _ --5.2 _ 135 _ 090 ___ 8.1, 2.3 ______ No

waterways _______5.6 _ 15.8 _ --6.8 _ 113 _ 094 ___ 6.5, 2.0 ______ No

___ Con Sensus __ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 7.5, 2.0 ______ No

Dacogawa _______ 5.6 _ 14.4 _ --7.1 _ 132 _ 090 ___ 7.3, --3.3 ____ Yes _Knock

mickger844posts __5.6 _ 14.2 _ --4.3 _ 100 _ 095 ___ 9.1, 1.5 ______ No

sryanbruen ______ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 6.1, 2.5 ______ No

Dasa29__________5.6 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___10.0, -4.0 _____ No

JCX_BXC ________ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ --6.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 7.5, 2.5 _____ Yes _Knock

Rikand __________5.5 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 6.0, -4.0 _____ Yes

___ NormaL _____ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 9.0, 2.0 ______ No

Bsal ____________5.4 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 125 _ 095 ___ 8.0, 1.0 ______ No

John mac ________5.4 _ 14.0 _ --6.5 _ 120 _ 110 ___11.2, -1.2 ____ Yes _Knock

Rameire _________5.2 _ 13.5 _ --6.0 _ 095 _ 112 ___ 5.3, 1.2 _____ No

Sunflower3 ______ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.8, --3.5 ____ Yes _Dub A

Bazlers __________5.0 _ 14.0 _ --8.1 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 5.2, --2.3 ____Yes _J Castle

BLIZZARD7 _ (-1) _4.7 _ 15.3 _ --9.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 3.3, --2.7 ____Yes _Dub A
________________________________________________________________________

Well, the last three days were apparently even milder so the IMT finished at 8.0 rounded up from 7.96. It makes no difference to the scoring which was already on life support.

I did not spot any new MAX or MIN (thought I had, but that was corrected) ... the PRC has calculated to 127% of normal, which is going to add or take away one point depending on which side of 130 you were. Five are down by one, the rest up.

The SUN has feebly registered 50% of normal (estimated) and whatever the MS says cannot likely alter the scoring there.

So that means I will just repost the scoring here with those PRC values changed by one point and this will likely be the final scoring unless the MS has any different reports on MAX and MIN.

(Probable) Final scoring for December 2018

FORECASTER _____ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus _______ TOTAL


probable values __ 8.0_ 14.3_-2.8_127_050 _11.6, 3.0, NO



Adam240610______19*_ 19 _ 13*_ 14 _ 05*___ 9 __ 3 _____ 82

Tae laidir ________ 16*_ 18 _ 15*_ 11 _ 08*___10 __ 3 _____ 81

Joe Public ________20*_ 14 _ 11*_ 15 _ 06*___10 __ 3 _____ 79

pauldry __________23*_ 16 _ 10*_ 12 _ 06*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 78

Jpmarn __________24*_ 05 _ 17*_ 07 _ 09*___10 __ 3 _____ 75

Bsal _____________07*_ 17 _ 19*_ 14 _ 07*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 75

mickger844posts __ 10*_ 19 _ 18*_ 06 _ 07*___10 __ 3 _____73

MrSkinner _______ 19*_ 20 _ 10*_ 03 _ 06*___10 __ 3 _____ 71

Kindred Spirit _____16*_ 14 _ 10*_ 11 _ 07*___10 __ 3 _____ 71

DOCARCH ________12*_ 11 _ 15*_ 12 _ 08*___ 9 __ 3 _____ 70



___ Con Sensus ___10* _ 19 _ 10*_ 13 _ 06*___ 9 __ 3 _____ 70


Artane2002 ______ 19*_ 16 _ 15*_ 13 _ 04*____2 __ 0 _____ 69

sdanseo _________ 13*_ 19 _ 11*_ 10 _ 04*___10 __ 0 _____ 67

sryanbruen _______10*_ 15 _ 16*_ 09 _ 03*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 64

M.T. Cranium _____16* _ 18 _ 05*_ 13 _ 04*___ 1 __ 0 _____ 57

200motels ________12*_ 04 _ 12*_ 09 _ 08*___ 8 __ 3 _____ 56

John mac ________ 07*_ 17 _ 05*_ 13 _ 04*___ 9 __ 0 _____ 55


___ NormaL ______07*_ 13 _ 10*_ 06 _ 06*___10 __ 3 _____ 55


Dacogawa ________10*_ 19 _ 02*_ 13 _ 08*___ 2 __ 0 _____ 54

JCX_BXC _________08*_ 18 _ 06*_ 03 _ 03*___ 9 __ 0 _____ 47

waterways _______ 10*_ 06 _ 03*_ 10 _ 07*___ 7 __ 3 _____ 46

Rameire _________ 06*_ 12 _ 10*_ 04 _ 04*___ 6 __ 3 _____ 45

Dasa29__________ 10*_ 00 _ 10*_ 13 _ 02*___ 5 __ 3 _____ 43

Sunflower3 _______05*_ 18 _ 02*_ 06 _ 06*___ 2 __ 0 _____ 39

Bazlers __________05*_ 17 _ 01*_ 09 _ 04*___ 1 __ 0 _____ 37

BLIZZARD7 _ (-1) _ 04*_ 10 _ 00*_ 13 _ 08*___ 0 __ 0 __ 35-1 = 34

Rikand __________ 08*_ 17 _ 01*_ 02 _ 02*___ 0 __ 0 _____ 30

________________________________________________________________________

* IMT, MIN and SUN scored off minimum progression ... SUN scores are set to 80% otherwise so many ties make it difficult to give a fair distribution of scores. This may turn out to be raw scoring if the sun comes out for large parts of the day 27th to 31st.

Bonus scores (max, min 25th) are based on ranges of total error, 4.0 or lower scored 10, 4.1 to 5.0 scored 9, etc. The distribution of scores is fairly top heavy as a result, the closest punt on MAX was Johnmac at 11.2, while sdanseo and Adam240610 were right on with the MIN at --3.0. The lowest combined error was 2.7 from Kindred Spirit.

(actual forecasts can be seen two posts back with the earlier provisional scoring)

Congrats to Adam240610, tae laidir, Joe Public and Pauldry for their top showings in a fairly good month overall (once we got the boost, the top raw scores were actually closer to 40 than 80).

Provisionally final annual contest scoring will follow as I slowly recover my wits here on New Years Day.

Scoring is confirmed by the MS report. The SUN calculates out to around 55% by their data, certainly low enough to trigger the minimum progression (which was worked out by assigning 80% as validation, as there were multiple ties and close calls that would result in a very irregular procession of scores from rank order). The MAX and MIN were confirmed and all other aspects had been calculated from known values in monthly or daily data.

So we can confirm then that Pauldry was the lone forecaster to outgun Con Sensus and wins both the Boards (best 10 of 12) and MTC (all 12 totals) awards, while sryanbruen finished second in both contests, and DOCARCH third (tying with JPmarn in the all 12). Waterways was fourth in the best 10 of 12 (with the tie for third, nobody was fourth in all 12). And we have a tie for fifth in the best 10 of 12 between Rikand and fast-finishing Joe Public who was middle of the pack as recently as October. The fifth place score in all 12 went to Joe, as Rikand and waterways tied for sixth along with MTC. Then JPmarn held down seventh place in the all 12, and Tae laidir eighth (tied with NormaL). These positions were not filled due to the three-way tie for 6th in the boards award. Dacogawa and Rameire also edged out NormaL in the all twelve contest, where NormaL finished 11th.

Anyway, the scoring was quite close in the chase pack between Con Sensus and NormaL, and for a good ways back behind NormaL also, the difference between second and 15th place in the best 10 of 12 contest was only 45 points (the margin of victory for Pauldry was 25).

Well done to the top finishers and now it's on to 2019. Adam240610 and Artane2002 joined too late in the year to qualify but looking at their average scores they will be right in there. For the seven months they entered, Adam 240610 was 16 points behind Con Sensus and Artane2002 was 50 points behind. Pro-rated that works out to about 4th and 18th places but that's only a rough estimate.