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Cold Spell Chart, Forecast Analysis & Warnings- 29/11/2010 onwards

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  • 29-11-2010 3:01pm
    #1
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭


    Please use this thread strictly for discussion of weather charts and forecasts.

    Use the other thread for general chat. ;)


«134567…15

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  • Options
    #2
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    For people wondering when the snow will hit click on Nedbor on this site to give an indication of what hopefully will happen. http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm


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    #3
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Posted on the other thread. System tonight looks strong enough to continue on til Tuesday afternoon, spreading across the country

    attachment.php?attachmentid=137167&stc=1&d=1291036817


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    #4
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Why the hell does the NAE 06z chart have to be witheld or whatever from weatheronline?! This would help matters significantly if I had access to it.


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    #5
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Rougies wrote: »
    I think Evelyn must have held the meteireann website editor at gunpoint to type that forecast and warning today.
    I can picture it clearly ... "But Evelyn, 20cm .. that's nearly 8 inches!! We can't do that!" ... "Ok smartass, lets make that 25cm ... how do you like 10inches! Type it now or get a bullet in the head!" biggrin.gif

    edit: Sound like she's made it to the TV studio now too, poor Nuala must have been petrified :O
    Lol quoted for truth!
    For what it's worth,it is getting very marginal on the coast,that may or may not be the case after dark.
    I'm sceptical of any of the forecasted dumpings to reach south wicklow or north wexford.
    We shall see.
    They could well come into Dublin,louth and the rest of wicklow alright with some coasts see'ing a sleety mix including central Dublin.

    That said,theres no thaw worth talking about here despite the air temp being 2.1c
    dp is -0.1c
    We had the lightest of the lightest snow here an hour ago.


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    #6
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Cherryghost, could you indicate what Weather forecasting model that chart comes from?

    Edit: I note with interest that the temperature at Ronaldsway airport in the IoM has dropped to 2 degrees at 2.20 from 3 degrees at 1.50, which is a very positive sign. HOWEVER a met office station to the north of Blackpool, which is not even halfway across the Irish Sea, had temperatures rising to 3 degrees at 1pm. I'm awaiting the 2pm readings with interest.


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    #7
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=EU

    Here ya go


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    #8
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    To_be_confirmed wrote: »
    Why the hell does the NAE 06z chart have to be witheld or whatever from weatheronline?! This would help matters significantly if I had access to it.

    Really really annoying.

    Always seems to be the case during severe weather etc.


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    #9
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Jet Stream forming block offshore

    10112909_2906.gif


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    #10
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    ^
    |
    |
    | is that good or bad
    |
    |


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    #11
    Dotsie~tmp
    Registered Users Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭Dotsie~tmp


    48H accumulation. Looks good to me.

    10120100_2900.gif


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    #12
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    In terms of this weekends weather yes, the entire country would be in for a dumping


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    #13
    danni2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 252 ✭✭danni2


    Ok it looks like some heavy snow is forecast for the east in the next 24-48 hours, how far inland will the snow travel, will they make it as far as the midlands?


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    #14
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    danni2 wrote: »
    Ok it looks like some heavy snow is forecast for the east in the next 24-48 hours, how far inland will the snow travel, will they make it as far as the midlands?

    http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Offaly/Clara/advanced_map.html


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    #15
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    danni2 wrote: »
    Ok it looks like some heavy snow is forecast for the east in the next 24-48 hours, how far inland will the snow travel, will they make it as far as the midlands?

    Looks as though it might go as far as eastern Galway from somecharts, stretching downwards to Tipp and pulling back to Waterford, while a seperate batch is concentrated on Cork/Kerry


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    #16
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    cherryghost wrote: »
    Looks as though it might go as far as eastern Galway from somecharts,

    yes. it would seem so.
    http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Galway/Clifden/advanced_map.html

    it will be interesting to see how much energy is left in it by the time it gets to the midlands.


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    #17
    danni2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 252 ✭✭danni2


    Thanks guys, and thanks for that link nacho;)


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    #18
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    10113006_2912.gif

    The very latest 12Z NAE showing heavy snow in Dublin/Louth area early Tuesday morning.


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    #19
    Dotsie~tmp
    Registered Users Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭Dotsie~tmp


    Upgrade to 48H percip. accum.

    10120112_2912.gif


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    #20
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    maquiladora wrote: »
    10113006_2912.gif

    The very latest 12Z NAE showing heavy snow in Dublin/Louth area early Tuesday morning.

    Ya beat me!

    That chart looks smashing for here.

    GFS still progging exceptional, and potential for record breaking temperatures during Thursday night.

    Rtavn9017.png


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    #21
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Weathercheck wrote: »

    That chart looks smashing for here.

    Dew Points


    10113003_2912.gif

    10113006_2912.gif


    Could be alot of snow during tomorrow though. Won't be snow at 6am on that evidence however (on coasts).


    From 9am is very interesting.

    10113009_2912.gif


    But the 12z GFS beings in the much colder air slower and delays the transition back to snow till tomorrow afternoon...


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    #22
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    SKy news weather forecast was just amazing for leinster!:D


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    #23
    10-10-20
    Registered Users Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭10-10-20


    I wonder will this work...
    It should show the latest MET radar and also Sat24's output.

    WEB_radar_201011291430.gif
    From: http://met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp?ani=y

    image.ashx?ok=1&country=eu&type=slide&index=1&sat
    From: http://www.sat24.com/


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    #24
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    maquiladora wrote: »

    The very latest 12Z NAE showing heavy snow in Dublin/Louth area early Tuesday morning.

    Do you think we will see any of that?


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    #25
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Anyway know what surface winds are to be like on East coasts tonight? (Or have a hi-res chart from any recent model output?)Winds have gone North-West again in Bray which i think will spell snow for sure here if that direction can hold overnight. Today during the day was the first Easterly interlude in the surface winds here in the last few days!


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    #26
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    trogdor wrote: »
    Anyway know what surface winds are to be like on East coasts tonight? (Or have a hi-res chart from any recent model output?)Winds have gone North-West again in Bray which i think will spell snow for sure here if that direction can hold overnight. Today during the day was the first Easterly interlude in the surface winds here in the last few days!

    Is this what you are looking for ?

    137209.png


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    #27
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Those showers should be turning increasingly to rain at this stage in the East near the coast. Won't be till sunrise at the earliest that rain will turn back to snow. It's going to get very messy with melting continuing on the East coast as temperatures rise just above freezing tonight.


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    #28
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Having looked at the 850-1000 hPa thickness charts from the NAE Model, it would appear that coastal regions south of Drogheda will more likely than not see sleety snow and rain until about 6am. 10km inland in Leinster can expect more snow, albeit amounts may vary widely.

    The GFS model is more pessimistic and suggests the transition will be later in the morning for the likes of Dublin city itself. Many More inland areas should see quite a lot of the white stuff by tomorrow night though!


  • Options
    #29
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Those showers should be turning increasingly to rain at this stage in the East near the coast. Won't be till sunrise at the earliest that rain will turn back to snow. It's going to get very messy with melting continuing on the East coast as temperatures rise just above freezing tonight.

    Is there not -8 uppers over the country for most of the night which are due to drop to -10 around 2am, with dew points to drop from around 9pm, as well as a 516 dam line over the country also ?


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    #30
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Those showers should be turning increasingly to rain at this stage in the East near the coast. Won't be till sunrise at the earliest that rain will turn back to snow. It's going to get very messy with melting continuing on the East coast as temperatures rise just above freezing tonight.

    Snowing lightly in Cabinteely.


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    #31
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Those showers should be turning increasingly to rain at this stage in the East near the coast. Won't be till sunrise at the earliest that rain will turn back to snow. It's going to get very messy with melting continuing on the East coast as temperatures rise just above freezing tonight.

    Seem to be showing that you are correct on the predictive radar :mad:

    137224.jpg


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