Property Market 2019

Bigmac1euro · 09-11-2019 7:47pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

New estates do look crammed. The Hansfiled development in Ongar, D15 is a typical example of that with parking space instead of front lawn and very narrow lanes to drive through.The estate is still being expanded so there must be damand, but they no longer advertise on Daft which is interesting

Yeah I know what you mean, I’m not a fan of the houses. They just don’t appeal to me. One of the uglier new build estates.

https://touch.daft.ie/dublin/new-homes-for-sale/barnwell-woods-hansfield-clonsilla-dublin-117908

Sheeps · 09-11-2019 7:54pm

Had a look at Beresford and the Paddocks in Donabate today and they're both lovely developments. There's only three or four homes left in the next phase of Beresford but in terms of location they're excellent (right opposite the park and close enough to the train station).

The Paddocks are are really beautiful homes. Think I'll be trying to snatch one of the next phase up on those if I haven't found somewhere by the time the come available.

Not much garden space, but I've come to expect that for new builds these days.

nerrad01 · 10-11-2019 10:57pm

hmmm wrote: »

Brexit is now largely off the table as a risk.
Builders are building only where there is demand.
Banks are lending prudently.
High hopes of a US/China trade deal.
Markets are moving out of bonds into equities signalling optimism.

The 'For sale' market certainly looks to have reached a reasonable equilibrium - the overhang of landlords looking to sell has largely cleared, prices aren't doing much up or down, stuff is selling.

The 'Rental' market is still completely screwed. I'm seeing signs of it driving workers we need out of the country (tech mostly). We need to build rental apartments, we need lots of them, and we need to build them quickly. I'm very happy if large institutional buyers own them, or a large chunk of them, let them take the macro-economic risk.

how have you come to this conclusion? we literally have no idea how brexit is going to play out never mind the subsequent economic impact it will have on ireland.

hmmm · 10-11-2019 11:52pm

nerrad01 wrote: »

how have you come to this conclusion? we literally have no idea how brexit is going to play out never mind the subsequent economic impact it will have on ireland.

Brexit can be managed over the long term when there is a series of deals in place, which now looks like the most likely scenario. The biggest danger to Ireland was a sudden "no deal" exit with a significant and overnight impact on our economy.

There is a partial upside, but the influx of rich fund managers some were suggesting isn't going to happen.

Anyone who was waiting to see what happens with Brexit for its impact on Irish property prices is now going to be waiting years, if not decades to get a conclusion. It's not a major factor anymore, people can't wait that long. The risk of a sudden Brexit-induced crash has significantly reduced.

riclad · 10-11-2019 11:53pm

Its impossible to say what effect brexit will have on the irish economy,
it will be negative, but by how much,? one example it will be more expensive to export products to the uk,
there may be less demand for irish products like beer,whisky,
if the uk economy slows down.
it will probably cost more to buy for example , irish whisky in the uk
Theres too many variables involved to make a prediction,
its like trying to predict the weather on a day 8 months from now .

chicorytip · 10-11-2019 11:58pm

Sheeps wrote: »

Had a look at Beresford and the Paddocks in Donabate today and they're both lovely developments. There's only three or four homes left in the next phase of Beresford but in terms of location they're excellent (right opposite the park and close enough to the train station).

The Paddocks are are really beautiful homes. Think I'll be trying to snatch one of the next phase up on those if I haven't found somewhere by the time the come available.

Not much garden space, but I've come to expect that for new builds these days.

I do wish builders could dream up more original and appropriate names for their developments. The Paddocks in Donabate, for example. Is there some horse breeding or racing activity associated with that particular area?

Sheeps · 11-11-2019 12:24am

chicorytip wrote: »

I do wish builders could dream up more original and appropriate names for their developments. The Paddocks in Donabate, for example. Is there some horse breeding or racing activity associated with that particular area?

Yeah, agreed. All the house types also seem to be named after birds.

11-11-2019 9:55am

hmmm wrote: »

Brexit can be managed over the long term when there is a series of deals in place, which now looks like the most likely scenario. The biggest danger to Ireland was a sudden "no deal" exit with a significant and overnight impact on our economy.

There is a partial upside, but the influx of rich fund managers some were suggesting isn't going to happen.

Anyone who was waiting to see what happens with Brexit for its impact on Irish property prices is now going to be waiting years, if not decades to get a conclusion. It's not a major factor anymore, people can't wait that long. The risk of a sudden Brexit-induced crash has significantly reduced.

we have absolutely no idea of both the economic impact in both the short, medium or long term. Its definitely going to have a negative impact but how much is the question. So i would have to disagree with you.

Dav010 · 11-11-2019 10:22am

hmmm wrote: »

Brexit can be managed over the long term when there is a series of deals in place, which now looks like the most likely scenario. The biggest danger to Ireland was a sudden "no deal" exit with a significant and overnight impact on our economy.

There is a partial upside, but the influx of rich fund managers some were suggesting isn't going to happen.

Anyone who was waiting to see what happens with Brexit for its impact on Irish property prices is now going to be waiting years, if not decades to get a conclusion. It's not a major factor anymore, people can't wait that long. The risk of a sudden Brexit-induced crash has significantly reduced.

Seems at odds with virtually all Economists and Business orgs, in both Ireland and the UK, what info do you have that they don’t?

Mic 1972 · 11-11-2019 10:59am

Brexit may not be the biggest impact on property market then, as the market has reversed the positive trend and something must have triggered that

Cyrus · 11-11-2019 11:13am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Brexit may not be the biggest impact on property market then, as the market has reversed the positive trend and something must have triggered that

what any market hates is uncertainty, the unresolved brexit issue has caused uncertainty which has certainly contributed.

the other factors are pretty obvious, the growth in prices of houses has surpassed the growth in earnings and has still as the CB rules have kicked in. In a functioning market with tight lending rules house prices should more or less rise with inflation.

Dav010 · 11-11-2019 11:14am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Brexit may not be the biggest impact on property market then, as the market has reversed the positive trend and something must have triggered that

Not something, more likely somethings. There was a call recently for the CB to relax lending rules as they are onerous on prospective buyers, many cannot get mortgages because the deposit required and/or wage multiple locks them out. The reduction in investors buying to let for reasons covered in other threads, the concern about jobs/wages as a result of Brexit in companies whose main market is the UK, the decrease in UK buyers, again due to currency value and Brexit concerns, etc etc.

11-11-2019 11:22am

I was talking to a very good friend of mine that is a builders supplier in the West (I want to leave it a bit vague).

He is telling me that his sales have fallen off a cliff and this is perhaps the worst year he has put down since the early 2010's.

He claims what little construction that was happening in the Western region has completely come to a halt.

JamesMason · 11-11-2019 11:29am

The IMF and most major economists are warning of a global slump (compounded by any form of Brexit). We are especially vulnerable and it is that uncertainty which is causing the wobble. Look at the construction output figures released today - they have crashed. Property market sentiment has softened. Things can go south (or pop) very quickly. We are on a cliff edge here.

Cyrus wrote: »

what any market hates is uncertainty, the unresolved brexit issue has caused uncertainty which has certainly contributed.

the other factors are pretty obvious, the growth in prices of houses has surpassed the growth in earnings and has still as the CB rules have kicked in. In a functioning market with tight lending rules house prices should more or less rise with inflation.

Cyrus · 11-11-2019 11:31am

JamesMason wrote: »

The IMF and most major economists are warning of a global slump (compounded by any form of Brexit). We are especially vulnerable and it is that uncertainty which is causing the wobble. Look at the construction output figures released today - they have crashed. Property market sentiment has softened. Things can go south (or pop) very quickly. We are on a cliff edge here.

i dont share your hyperbole.

SozBbz · 11-11-2019 11:32am

JamesMason wrote: »

The IMF and most major economists are warning of a global slump (compounded by any form of Brexit). We are especially vulnerable and it is that uncertainty which is causing the wobble. Look at the construction output figures released today - they have crashed. Property market sentiment has softened. Things can go south (or pop) very quickly. We are on a cliff edge here.

Alarmist much?

JamesMason · 11-11-2019 11:36am

SozBbz wrote: »

Alarmist much?

No, just wide awake.

Cyrus · 11-11-2019 11:37am

JamesMason wrote: »

No, just wide awake.

woke?

terrydel · 11-11-2019 11:42am

hmmm wrote: »

Brexit can be managed over the long term when there is a series of deals in place, which now looks like the most likely scenario. The biggest danger to Ireland was a sudden "no deal" exit with a significant and overnight impact on our economy.

There is a partial upside, but the influx of rich fund managers some were suggesting isn't going to happen.

Anyone who was waiting to see what happens with Brexit for its impact on Irish property prices is now going to be waiting years, if not decades to get a conclusion. It's not a major factor anymore, people can't wait that long. The risk of a sudden Brexit-induced crash has significantly reduced.

Given the 3 years of utter chaos that has followed the referendum, and the fact that the same idiots who've presided over that 3 years will also in all likelihood preside over the enactment of brexit in whatever form that will take, the idea that it can be managed and is little to worry about, is optimistic to say the least, and far more likely to be delusional.

SozBbz · 11-11-2019 11:46am

JamesMason wrote: »

No, just wide awake.

Oh, ok then, you must be correct so. An irrefutable argument.

The phrases "stopped clock" and "twice a day" are coming to mind though.

SozBbz · 11-11-2019 11:52am

terrydel wrote: »

Given the 3 years of utter chaos that was followed the referendum, and the fact that the same idiots who've presided over that 3 years will also in all likelihood preside over the enactment of brexit in whatever form that will take, the idea that it can be managed and is little to worry about, is optimistic to say the least, and far more likely to be delusional.

People still need houses and still want to put down roots.

Due to the last recession the average age of home buyers has now risen significantly. Many people are now 30 or above buying their first place, and may have already started their families or are looking to do so in the immediate future. People can't/won't wait indefinitely to get on with their lives. Irish people will always want to buy houses.

The demand factors are still going to be strong and the supply is still limited.

Oh and for the cheap seats in the back - its been said a million times but it appears some people still need to hear it - current prices are not built on credit, so this is not the same as 2008.

Reversal · 11-11-2019 12:02pm

SozBbz wrote: »

People still need houses and still want to put down roots.

Due to the last recession the average age of home buyers has now risen significantly. Many people are now 30 or above buying their first place, and may have already started their families or are looking to do so in the immediate future. People can't/won't wait indefinitely to get on with their lives. Irish people will always want to buy houses.

The demand factors are still going to be strong and the supply is still limited.

Oh and for the cheap seats in the back - its been said a million times but it appears some people still need to hear it - current prices are not built on credit, so this is not the same as 2008.

This 'small supply and ever lasting demand' argument has already been debunked. Just two days ago there was an IT article posted here. Construction slowdown in Dublin due to investors getting nervous about the amount of unsold stock that is starting to build up.

So in Dublin right now, unsold new build stock is building up to the point investors think the market is too risky to put any more of their money near it. And this is in the highest demand market in the country...

But I'm sure they're wrong, sure doesn't everyone want a house!

SozBbz · 11-11-2019 12:09pm

Reversal wrote: »

This 'small supply and ever lasting demand' argument has already been debunked. Just two days ago there was an IT article posted here. Construction slowdown in Dublin due to investors getting nervous about the amount of unsold stock that is starting to build up.

So in Dublin right now, unsold new build stock is building up to the point investors think the market is too risky to put any more of their money near it. And this is in the highest demand market in the country...

But I'm sure they're wrong, sure doesn't everyone want a house!

Well if someone posted a newspaper article it must be true.

I'm not saying there no slow down, but posters predicting a cliff edge are completely wrong in my opinion. I've posted previously that I think we've reached affordability limits, but that doesnt mean that prices are going to rapidly fall.

And yes, Irish people do always want to buy houses, its been ever thus. There is a fascination with home ownership in this country. Just take a look at the alternative, the rental market, and its easy to see why.

JamesMason · 11-11-2019 12:21pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Well if someone posted a newspaper article it must be true.

I'm not saying there no slow down, but posters predicting a cliff edge are completely wrong in my opinion. I've posted previously that I think we've reached affordability limits, but that doesnt mean that prices are going to rapidly fall.

And yes, Irish people do always want to buy
houses, its been ever thus. There is a fascination with home ownership in this country. Just take a look at the alternative, the rental market, and its easy to see why.

What effect would a global/EU/UK slowdown have on real estate in Ireland? It may have no effect on house prices here. My worry is that a slump wouldn't be good for us. That is all.

mariaalice · 11-11-2019 12:28pm

Reversal wrote: »

This 'small supply and ever lasting demand' argument has already been debunked. Just two days ago there was an IT article posted here. Construction slowdown in Dublin due to investors getting nervous about the amount of unsold stock that is starting to build up.

So in Dublin right now, unsold new build stock is building up to the point investors think the market is too risky to put any more of their money near it. And this is in the highest demand market in the country...

But I'm sure they're wrong, sure doesn't everyone want a house!

That is an incorrect reading of he article, it's about financing, the central bank rulse have put a ceiling on house prices and developers are finding it more difficult to put a financing package together. The demand is still there.

While property development is still profitabe its not as profitable plus its getting less profitable and because of that the money has move on to other investing.

11-11-2019 12:37pm

Anyone have any figures on build to let that have been completed this year? Every major apartment development i have seen close to the city centre has been build to let. Surely some sort of rule where a certain proportion of these must be sold would create a bit more supply and strike a balance between increasing supply while making it financially attractive to the developers to keep funding these projects.

mariaalice · 11-11-2019 12:43pm

19233974 wrote: »

Anyone have any figures on build to let that have been completed this year? Every major apartment development i have seen close to the city centre has been build to let. Surely some sort of rule where a certain proportion of these must be sold would create a bit more supply and strike a balance between increasing supply while making it financially attractive to the developers to keep funding these projects.

Again its probably easier and more stable to get finance for that sort of property development.

Mic 1972 · 11-11-2019 12:52pm

6541 wrote: »

I was talking to a very good friend of mine that is a builders supplier in the West (I want to leave it a bit vague).

He is telling me that his sales have fallen off a cliff and this is perhaps the worst year he has put down since the early 2010's.

He claims what little construction that was happening in the Western region has completely come to a halt.

the link below is the property register sales volume report, October looks like the lowest volume in a long time

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

Mickiemcfist · 11-11-2019 12:53pm

Yea I worked as an investment analyst for a medium sized Irish developer in 2016, they were financing green field housing estates at 16% interest. My credit card has lower rates.

While in theory it makes sense to build & release the entire amount of housing at the same time, the phased 15-20 house building was the most secure way to do it for two reasons, one was that your capital outlay (i.e. amount financed) was low should the market tank. Second was that you could capitalise on the gradual increase in house prices & throw 5k on the price for each subsequent release.

It'll be interesting to see does that second reason get switched on it's head now that prices have plateaued.

Cyrus · 11-11-2019 12:57pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the link below is the property register sales volume report, October looks like the lowest volume in a long time

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

the small print is important here

Recent periods may not be complete.

Property Market 2019

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