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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 20 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 September, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal, but that will be a blend of 3-5 above for today and Saturday, and near to slightly below normal after that. Normal values around 17 C daytime, 7 C at night.
    -- Rainfall will be 75 to 125 per cent of normal values, with some rather heavy falls now expected from Sunday to mid-week.
    -- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal, with a cloudier trend after today.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be the last fine day for a while, with sunshine, light winds in the east and central regions, and warm afternoon highs of 20 to 23 C. Stronger southerly winds in western counties and eventually also near the south coast will combine with increasing cloud to reduce some of the warmth in a few places.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain before morning in west Munster. Mild with lows 10 to 13 C. Moderate southerly winds will become more widespread.

    SATURDAY will be overcast except for some brighter intervals in the east and north, and rain will gradually spread from west Munster into some other western and central counties, as well as in some portions of Leinster. Winds southerly 50 to 70 km/hr, highs near 21 C.

    SUNDAY will feature outbreaks of rain, 5 to 15 mm likely, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

    MONDAY will be blustery with some rain at times, as frontal systems associated with extratropical Humberto arrive. About 10 mm of rain is likely, highs near 15 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and showery with highs near 14 C.

    The rest of next week looks rather unsettled with near normal temperatures returning. Further down the road, remnants of Hurricane Jerry could make a run at Ireland some time around the first of October.

    At the moment, Humberto is a powerful extratropical storm south of Nova Scotia, about to turn east. It is no longer structurally a hurricane but has winds of cat-1 hurricane intensity in its circulation. By Tuesday, remnants of it will be northwest of Donegal but the maximum winds associated may only be 80 km/hr by then. Meanwhile, Jerry has become a small but rather intense hurricane moving rapidly northwest past the northern Leeward Islands, towards Bermuda eventually, and then it could recurve and head for Europe. Details on that won't be too reliable for a few more days yet, but in theory it could lead to a windy pattern for Ireland at some point late this month or early in October.

    My local weather improved finally to partly cloudy and dry, with highs near 16 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 21 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 September, 2019

    -- Temperatures will be falling through the period and will average just a little above normal, which by end of week would be a maximum around 16 and a minimum of 5.
    -- Rainfalls will average normal to 150% of normal amounts with rain becoming frequent starting tonight.
    -- Sunshine will average 50% of normal values, with today (in east and north) possibly the only sunny day for a while.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out sunny and breezy in most areas, with a band of showery rain making its way through west Munster this morning, and spreading to other regions through the afternoon and evening, with clouds increasing rapidly ahead of the rain. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts near coasts and higher terrain in the south. Would exercise caution if venturing into hilly areas, weather may change rapidly. Highs 18 to 21 C.

    TONIGHT will have outbreaks of showery rain and possibly a thunderstorm, 5 to 15 mm likely. Mild and breezy with lows near 12 C.

    SUNDAY will have some heavy showers in the morning, tapering off to scattered showers later, with fresh southwest winds and highs only around 14 to 16 C.

    MONDAY will be breezy to windy, southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, thanks to remnants of Humberto approaching northwest coast by late in the day. Showers will merge to intervals of rain, 10 to 20 mm likely. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

    TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Rather windy at times, especially near the south coast.

    WEDNESDAY will also be cloudy with occasional rain and cool, lows of 6 C and highs near 13 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking rather cool and windy with showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.

    OUTLOOK ... If there is any break between systems it might come around Saturday 28th but then another interval of unsettled weather may develop. Models have very different solutions for the evolution of current Tropical Storm Jerry (just downgraded from a hurricane in the past hour, north of Puerto Rico). The American GFS model shows the remnants of Jerry racing northeast by next weekend and passing through northern Ireland and Scotland, but the European model currently brings Jerry north to Newfoundland where it stalls out because of a large high in the central Atlantic, giving Ireland a prolonged cool northerly near the end of the month. So we'll have to wait and see which model has the handle on that, with a future storm just entering the tropical Atlantic now from west Africa a possible player in the central Atlantic weather picture by about the 2nd to 4th of October.

    My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy once the morning mist and drizzle cleared away, and the high was around 14 C. We are getting a bit of autumn colour showing now and traces of snow on higher peaks above 2,000 meters locally.

    In case you're wondering the autumn equinox isn't today or even tomorrow, but Monday 23rd at 0852 IST (0752 UTC).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 22 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 September

    -- Temperatures will remain near normal values, perhaps slightly above due mainly to cloudy nights staying mild.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal. That would imply about 30-40 mm in total.
    -- Sunshine will be rather infrequent, some quite low totals are possible but 50% of normal might be achieved in a few spots.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring heavy showers and the risk of an isolated thunderstorm, more widespread in Leinster and Ulster at first, but with a second wave developing later in the day moving into the southwest and spreading further into central counties. Some brighter intervals will be in the mix, especially in the western counties. Highs 16 to 19 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm, heavier in Leinster.

    TONIGHT will see some dry intervals and partly cloudy skies but some further rain will be found in the form of scattered showers. It will become rather windy after midnight, southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows 10 to 12 C.

    MONDAY will bring strong southwest winds of 50 to 80 km/hr and occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm likely. Highs near 15 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with showers or intervals of light rain, and the gusty winds will die out after becoming confined to the south coast. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become quite breezy again (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) with showers and cool temperatures in the range of 10 to 15 C.

    THURSDAY will have some sunny breaks but also some passing showers, westerly breezes, highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY are also looking partly cloudy to overcast with showers and highs near 16 C.

    Around SUNDAY or perhaps MONDAY the remnants of Tropical Storm Jerry will probably be travelling across Ireland, leading to a slight increase in the southwest winds again, and more occasional rain. No big storm is expected though.

    The week following will likely be rather unsettled as well. There are two more tropical systems about ready to be named, one is coming out of west Africa into the tropical Atlantic, and the other is east of Barbados now. These will be Karen and Lorenzo, as of mid-day the Caribbean system got the first name (Karen) so now it's likely that the African system will get the name Lorenzo. This one is expected to stay in the central Atlantic before recurving towards Europe in about a week to ten days from now. The other system (now Karen), will probably meander in the western Atlantic and could merge with disturbances over eastern North America about a week from now, the results following on behind the first storm. So that would make four tropical remnants in about two weeks, counting Humberto whose remnants are approaching Ireland tomorrow.

    Once again, should emphasize that none of these is in any way Ophelia-like, just the typical Atlantic remnants that often track into the jet stream and join the regular parade of autumn lows. At the moment no charts are showing any really strong wind gusts from any of them, just a rather breezy regime in general for a couple of weeks ahead. It will perhaps seem like typical autumn weather.

    My local weather was sunny for a change, and a bit warmer with a high near 18 C.

    The autumn equinox will occur at 0852h Monday 23rd (or 0752 UTC). This will be the latest autumn equinox from now to the early 22nd century.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 23 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 September, 2019

    -- Temperatures will be near normal values, although daily maxima could be 1 deg or more below their average, and overnight minima will be above their average values. (by mid-week, these average values are around 16 C for a high, and 6 C for the low).
    -- Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal. About 40-50 mm can be expected in many areas.
    -- Sunshine will be quite low and may have trouble reaching 50% of average (which is 4-5 hours a day).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out with some dry and even bright intervals in parts of the east and north but rain will slowly advance northeast from west Munster, with some heavy downpours at times, 5 to 15 mm likely. Moderate southwest winds will develop, reaching 50-70 km/hr. Highs will be around 15 or 16 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, and the gusty winds will become mostly confined to the south coast as a slack wind regime pushes into northern and then central regions. Lows 9 to 11 C.

    TUESDAY will be breezy near the south coast, but winds will be somewhat variable elsewhere, with scattered showers or outbreaks of light rain, highs about 14 to 16 C.

    WEDNESDAY will also be overcast with light rain but westerly winds will pick up again to 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue unsettled with occasional rain, moderate west winds occasionally stronger southwest as fronts pass, and temperatures in the 12 to 15 C range much of the time.

    The coming weekend could have some brief dry intervals but the unsettled weather is likely to return at some point due to remnants of tropical activity interacting with frontal systems further north, so expect a renewed bout of wind and rain, although nothing too dramatic is shown on the charts at the moment.

    Tropical Storm Jerry continues to track towards Bermuda and will then head north or northeast. The models are still somewhat undecided on whether Jerry continues its journey towards the central Atlantic or just gets absorbed into other low pressure near Newfoundland. Either way, the results will track across the Atlantic and reach Ireland around Monday 30th. Karen is a weak tropical storm now south of Puerto Rico, tracking north. Some guidance wants to merge it with remnants of Jerry later in the month. It seems unlikely that Karen would strengthen enough to make it entirely out of the subtropics before it dissipates. Lorenzo, on the other hand, appears to be imminent as a hurricane in the central Atlantic from now designated Tropical Depression 13 south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This storm may become a major hurricane near the Azores and could track towards Iceland or even further east in the North Atlantic by about the end of the month. It would follow the remnants of Jerry, Karen and whatever lows get involved in that mess, and then in turn it would be followed by another strong low likely to follow it from eastern North America. So the next two weeks seem likely to be quite active with frequent bouts of wind and rain from all this energy being sucked into the jet stream over the central Atlantic. The odds are growing that there would be a significant wind event at some point, but nothing definitive is shown yet.

    My local weather on Sunday was cloudy but reasonably mild at 16 C. Light rain is approaching now. Reminder, the autumnal equinox occurs soon, may have already done so when you read this, at 0852h. So then it's officially autumn although it probably felt that way for several weeks already (here I would say the seasons changed around the 5th of September).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 24 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 September, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above, as the nights will be quite mild even though daytime readings will be held down.
    -- Rainfalls of 25% above normal will continue.
    -- Sunshine will be brief and may only amount to 50% of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see some brighter intervals developing once the light rain near the east coast pushes further east, as the next batch of thicker cloud and rain is moving slowly into west Munster and may take most of the morning to overspread Munster and Connacht, then in the afternoon this will arrive in Leinster and Ulster. Highs 16 to 18 C. Winds not as strong as recent days, except at times near the south coast this morning.

    TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain, 10 mm in total from today on average, lows 8 to 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become somewhat breezier again with passing showers, westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 16 to 19 C.

    THURSDAY will be breezy with occasional rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

    The outlook is somewhat uncertain as Tropical Storm Jerry is now showing some signs of speeding up and its remnants could arrive by the weekend, bringing another interval of moderate southwest winds and rain. Karen meanwhile is proving to be a very weak storm although it may produce heavy rains in Puerto Rico; it likely will die out before reaching Bermuda. Lorenzo meanwhile is predicted to become a cat-3 hurricane southwest of the Azores and now shows some signs of heading straight towards western Europe next week. The charts currently weaken it just before it arrives, and the centre goes to the south of Ireland rather than continuing on across Ireland, so in that event, the weather would likely be overcast and drizzly mid-week. Some warmer air is also lurking for later next week after the near miss from Lorenzo's remnants. All of this is somewhat speculative and obviously subject to change, but all scenarios that we have seen in recent days have the common feature of active weather in a southwest flow and more cloud than clear skies, with frequent rain. What's missing at the moment is any signs of significantly stronger winds.

    My local weather on Monday featured a lot of low cloud, with misty to foggy conditions at times, and some drizzle or light rain by afternoon, with highs around 14 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 25 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 25 September to 1 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, although mild at night, relatively cool daytime readings.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out with some brighter intervals in the east and north, as light drizzly rain moves into the southwest. This rain will tend to intensify during the mid-day as it moves across most of the country, eventually giving 10-15 mm amounts. Moderate south to southwest winds at times, highs 16 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will see the rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, and the moderate southwest winds will veer to a westerly direction. Lows will be around 9 to 11 C.

    THURSDAY will be rather windy with intervals of rain, possibly some embedded thunderstorms, with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 14 to 17 C. About 10 mm rain is likely.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers in moderate westerly breezes, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

    SATURDAY will probably be rather wet with low pressure either over or just to the south of Munster, winds may turn easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, and lows will be around 7 C with highs around 15 C.

    SUNDAY could provide a brief break in the wet pattern, although forecast models diverge at this point into two different outcomes for next week, and one of these would suggest that Sunday will be the start of a trend to more settled weather. Either way, it seems likely to be a relatively dry day with highs near 15 C.

    The model split is significant because it helps to determine the future track of powerful hurricane Lorenzo, expected to be near the Azores by early next week. Some guidance has this storm moving north in the central Atlantic while high pressure stays close to Ireland, preventing it from making a close approach. Other guidance does not show that and allows Lorenzo to take a run at western Europe, although the final outcome is then scattered on various models between landfalls in Ireland, Britain or France (around 2nd to 4th of October at this point).

    So we'll need to keep a close eye on forecast models and their ideas for Lorenzo, as it could prove to be a significant player next week. Before that, remnants of Jerry and Karen seem likely to die out before they can reach the main portion of the jet stream, but some of their energy could transfer into lows approaching Ireland around the weekend and (if the blocking high is weak) next week, in advance of Lorenzo's extratropical stage.

    My local weather was pleasant with some sunshine at times, and highs near 18 C. We have a fair amount of autumn colour showing now, not quite at its peak yet. Will try for a picture when the maples have reached their brightest phase.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 25 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 25 September to 1 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, although mild at night, relatively cool daytime readings.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out with some brighter intervals in the east and north, as light drizzly rain moves into the southwest. This rain will tend to intensify during the mid-day as it moves across most of the country, eventually giving 10-15 mm amounts. Moderate south to southwest winds at times, highs 16 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will see the rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, and the moderate southwest winds will veer to a westerly direction. Lows will be around 9 to 11 C.

    THURSDAY will be rather windy with intervals of rain, possibly some embedded thunderstorms, with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 14 to 17 C. About 10 mm rain is likely.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers in moderate westerly breezes, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

    SATURDAY will probably be rather wet with low pressure either over or just to the south of Munster, winds may turn easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, and lows will be around 7 C with highs around 15 C.

    SUNDAY could provide a brief break in the wet pattern, although forecast models diverge at this point into two different outcomes for next week, and one of these would suggest that Sunday will be the start of a trend to more settled weather. Either way, it seems likely to be a relatively dry day with highs near 15 C.

    The model split is significant because it helps to determine the future track of powerful hurricane Lorenzo, expected to be near the Azores by early next week. Some guidance has this storm moving north in the central Atlantic while high pressure stays close to Ireland, preventing it from making a close approach. Other guidance does not show that and allows Lorenzo to take a run at western Europe, although the final outcome is then scattered on various models between landfalls in Ireland, Britain or France (around 2nd to 4th of October at this point).

    So we'll need to keep a close eye on forecast models and their ideas for Lorenzo, as it could prove to be a significant player next week. Before that, remnants of Jerry and Karen seem likely to die out before they can reach the main portion of the jet stream, but some of their energy could transfer into lows approaching Ireland around the weekend and (if the blocking high is weak) next week, in advance of Lorenzo's extratropical stage.

    My local weather was pleasant with some sunshine at times, and highs near 18 C. We have a fair amount of autumn colour showing now, not quite at its peak yet. Will try for a picture when the maples have reached their brightest phase.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 26 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, although rather cool daytime highs and mild nights will continue.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will struggle to reach even 50 per cent of average.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers and longer intervals of rain, with some thunderstorms embedded by mid-day and afternoon. Moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 16 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with further rain likely, bringing totals to 15-20 mm in some places. Lows 8 to 11 C.

    FRIDAY will be breezy and a bit cooler with passing showers, highs 14 to 17 C.

    SATURDAY will likely be a rather wet day with winds turning easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, as low pressure passes through parts of Munster and south Leinster. Some locally heavy rainfalls may develop. Rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

    SUNDAY will start out wet and windy with a gradual clearing trend as low pressure pulls away from the southeast, giving some chance of sunny intervals in the west by afternoon. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Winds north backing to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

    MONDAY is currently looking wet again with yet another Atlantic depression approaching Ireland and crossing the southern counties during the day. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

    TUESDAY may see a few breaks and less rainfall, with highs near 15 C.

    Later next week, higher pressure may build up for a day or two, and if so that may protect Ireland from any threat of remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo making an impact (most likely to be west of Ireland around Thursday 3rd October). This hurricane is slowly gathering strength well to the south of the Azores where it could hit as a hurricane of diminishing intensity (after reaching major hurricane status in the meanwhile). Too early to say with much confidence where Lorenzo's remnants will actually head although most models seem to favour a track several hundred miles west of Ireland towards the Icelandic region with a loop around the northern Atlantic. Associated fronts and disturbances could then reach Ireland later even if Lorenzo never does.

    My local weather was sunny in the morning but cloudy by afternoon, as a strong front approaches. It was about 18 C for our high on Wednesday. We're expecting some rain, then a colder turn to the weather bringing snow down to mountain pass elevations by Friday. Rather early for this, might even see some mixing at my elevation of 1050 m. A heavy snowfall is expected in some higher terrain and over on the east slopes of the Rockies (by Friday) around Calgary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 27 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 27 Sept to 3 Oct 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal, but some daytime readings will be 2 to 3 deg below average while nights will be that much milder.
    -- Rainfall could average as much as 50% above normal, Saturday and Monday will both be quite wet.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but at least the trend will be improving by the middle of next week.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out with some heavy bursts of rain, possibly with some thunder, in parts of central Leinster and Munster. The second batch will move into south Leinster around late morning. Some spot flooding is possible as 15 to 25 mm of rain could fall in a short period of time in some places. There may be a slight clearing trend by afternoon from west to east although the showers will not entirely die off. Rather cool and breezy too, with highs 14 to 16 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr at times.

    TONIGHT will see isolated showers and otherwise partly cloudy skies with lows around 6 C.

    SATURDAY could start off bright and dry in some parts of the east and north, with increasing cloud later from the southwest. Rain will follow and turn heavy at times later in the day. About 15 to 25 mm rain is expected. Quite chilly especially to north of the track of low pressure which is expected to run from about Clare to Dublin. Highs north of that only 12 to 14 C. Southern counties could reach 17 C.

    SUNDAY will see the rain tapering off to drizzle in the morning, with a gradual clearing trend by mid-day, and afternoon sunny intervals especially in Connacht and west Munster. Winds rather strong at times as the low pulls away from the east coast, blowing from a northerly direction then later on backing to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

    MONDAY will have a chilly start as skies will remain clear until after midnight when cloud will rapidly increase. Rain will move in and persist all day in most places. North of the track of low pressure, east winds and very cool temperatures near 10 or 11 C while to the south, slightly milder at 15 C. Some central and inland southern counties will have 20-25 mm of rain.

    TUESDAY will see gradual clearing from this rain and cloud, but it won't turn sunny until afternoon in some western counties only. Winds will be rather brisk from the northeast backing to northwest later, before calming down Tuesday night. Lows and daytime highs in a narrow range of about 10 to 12 C. Quite chilly by evening, 4 to 6 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be a dry day with generally light winds at first, becoming moderate southerly later as cloud rapidly increases, at least over western counties. Lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

    OUTLOOK ... The remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo may be somewhere just west of Irish marine areas of the near Atlantic by Wednesday night or Thursday, and a front may reach Ireland on Thursday with intervals of rain, even if the core of Lorenzo moves towards Iceland after moving through the Azores. While Lorenzo is expected to travel west for some time after moving north, another deep low forming east of the American coast will be swung around towards Ireland and could produce strong winds around Friday.

    My local weather on Thursday was foggy with light rain for a while this morning, then it cleared up with a brisk, cold northerly wind in the afternoon. The snow line has come down to around 1200 metres on some local mountains, and it will fall further today, with a heavy snow warning in place for some mountain passes and much of south-central Alberta as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 28 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.
    -- Rainfall will be 25 to 75 per cent above normal, higher values likely in parts of the south.
    -- Sunshine will be about 75 per cent of normal, closer to 3 hours a day than the normal 4 or so.
    -- Strong winds may be a factor at times especially on Thursday 3rd.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start off bright and dry in some parts of the east and north, with increasing cloud later from the southwest. Rain will follow and turn heavy at times later in the day. Highs generally around 15 C, but temperatures will begin to diverge late in the day as low pressure approaches, to 12 C in the north and 17 C near the south coast.

    TONIGHT will be wet and breezy, possibly a few strong gusts near the south coast when low pressure tracks into Munster. About 15 to 25 mm rain is expected. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C for most, 14 to 17 C near the south coast for part of the night. A few strong south to southwest gusts may develop near Waterford and Wexford.

    SUNDAY will see the rain tapering off to drizzle in the morning, with a gradual clearing trend by mid-day, and afternoon sunny intervals especially in Connacht and west Munster. Winds rather strong at times as the low pulls away from the east coast, blowing from a northerly direction then later on backing to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

    MONDAY will have a chilly start as skies will remain clear until after midnight when cloud will rapidly increase. Rain will move in and persist all day in most places. North of the track of low pressure, east winds and very cool temperatures near 10 or 11 C while to the south, slightly milder at 15 C. Some central and inland southern counties will have 20-25 mm of rain.

    TUESDAY will see a secondary outbreak of light rain during the morning, then gradual clearing from the persistent rain and cloud, but it won't turn sunny until afternoon, and in some western counties only. Winds will be rather brisk from the northeast backing to northwest later, before calming down Tuesday night. Lows and daytime highs in a narrow range of about 10 to 12 C. Quite chilly by evening, 4 to 6 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be a dry day with generally light winds at first, becoming moderate southerly later as cloud rapidly increases, at least over western counties. Lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

    THURSDAY -- Storm Lorenzo watch is now in the forecast as models changed the track overnight, bringing the remnant extratropical low straight towards Ireland. Too early to give any definite forecast but charts this morning on some of the most reliable models indicate potential for 120-140 km/hr gusts especially near the west coast but at least 100-120 km/hr in many areas. This could change again closer to the time. For example, one model adjusted its track so far that Lorenzo now misses Ireland to the south instead of the northwest. Very much a wait and see situation now but the arrival would be early to mid-day Thursday 3rd.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK -- It appears likely to remain unsettled with more Atlantic disturbances lining up to follow Lorenzo into western Europe during early October.

    My local weather has been unseasonably cold on Friday, a sleety rain was falling by late afternoon and evening, snow no doubt over just slightly higher terrain, and temperatures were never much better than 5 C during the day. A heavy snowfall warning is out for mountain passes and parts of south-central Alberta tonight.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 29 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 29 Sept to 5 Oct 2019

    -- Temperatures will average between normal and 1.0 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal (possibly more if Lorenzo makes a direct impact)
    -- Sunshine will average about 75% of normal values.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out cloudy with some leftover drizzle and light rain. There will be some gradual clearing in western counties later. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, and rather chilly, highs only 13 to 16 C.

    TONIGHT will be clear at times in the north and east, and cold, with lows 1 to 4 C, although temperatures may rise after midnight there. The south and west will be overcast with rain developing, and rising temperatures towards dawn after lows near 7 C.

    MONDAY will produce some heavy rain at times, with low cloud ceilings and fog across many areas. About 20 to 30 mm of rain is possible. Winds increasing to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, backing around to northeast in most places as low pressure travels through the south coastal regions. Temperatures steady 12 to 14 C.

    TUESDAY will start out with occasional light rain then a gradual clearing trend will develop. It will remain rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Winds moderate northerly to northwesterly.

    WEDNESDAY will most likely be dry as high pressure crests over the region, with some sunshine at times, then increasing cloud. Lows will be near the frost zone inland, and highs 12 to 16 C.

    The outlook remains very uncertain as Lorenzo decides which way to go after a rampage through the Azores likely on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The models have been diverging in different directions each time but the trend this morning is back towards the older idea of a miss to the west, however, the official track which blends all solutions is straight towards western Ireland. So the Lorenzo watch remains in effect with a probability of a direct impact perhaps one in three or one in four at this point. What seems more certain is that the weather will become unsettled again if not due to Lorenzo's direct impacts, then due to all the frontal systems likely to be heading towards Ireland in the wake of the storm's passage towards Iceland.

    My local weather was a real shocker on Saturday as snow fell throughout the day and accumulated to about 7 cms on some surfaces (while melting on the roads), and it appeared to be 10-15 cms on nearby hills, while changing to rain at elevations a bit lower than our local area. The highest temperature we had all day was probably 2 or 3 C, which I would have to think is an extreme value for this location in September. It is still overcast with a drizzly wet snow falling now, expecting a slow clearing trend and continued very cold to Monday here.

    Astronomy note: The new moon has just occurred as of 1927h IST Saturday (1827h UTC).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update -- a bit late getting to the full forecast, for those wanting an overview, will be going with the same general forecast as from this point in yesterday's outlook and the Lorenzo situation is not determined yet but guidance is favouring a near miss to the west of Ireland, however will be indicating the watch continues and about a 1 in 4 chance of a more direct impact than that. Full forecast will appear within 10 mins I hope.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 30 September, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 30 Sept to 6 Oct 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, increasing through the period.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal if Lorenzo misses Ireland and 25 to 50 per cent above normal with a more direct impact.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values, improving by mid-week.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY ... After a dry start to the day in eastern and northern counties, cloud will rapidly increase, and lead to heavy rain at times -- the rain already falling in west Munster -- with low cloud ceilings and fog developing by afternoon across many areas. About 20 to 30 mm of rain is possible. Winds increasing to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, backing around to northeast in most places as low pressure travels through the south coastal regions. Once the morning chill is overcome, it will still be rather cool for late September with temperatures steady 12 to 14 C except possibly rising to near 16 C along the south coast and in west Munster with some late afternoon clearing there.

    TONIGHT ... The heavier rain will continue in Leinster and Ulster for a time, with variable cloud in Munster and Connacht, further outbreaks of light rain likely, and temperatures steady around 10 C.

    TUESDAY will start out with occasional light rain then a gradual clearing trend will develop. It will remain rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Winds moderate northerly to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and dry as high pressure crests over the region, with some sunshine at times, then increasing cloud by afternoon. Lows will be in the range of 1 to 6 C with some light ground frost possible in valleys inland, and highs 12 to 16 C.

    THURSDAY is most likely to be a mild, cloudy day, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C, with some rain skirting the west coast, in moderate southerly breezes. This will verify if Lorenzo's remnant low stays west of about 18 deg longitude. If it approaches Ireland closer than that, perhaps a one in four chance now, then more significant rain and wind impacts could be felt. I believe we should begin to see consensus in the guidance by tomorrow's forecast update and until Lorenzo has reached the Azores it may not be entirely certain how close to Ireland it might come. The official forecast from the NHC indicates uncertainty on whether Lorenzo fully merges with a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies coming out of eastern Canada now, or remains a separate entity until Thursday or Friday, in which case it could track closer to Ireland.

    The OUTLOOK beyond Thursday whether Lorenzo has hit Ireland or not is for further disturbances to pass with wind and rain on a fairly frequent basis, in a mild southwesterly flow pattern. Highs could be in the 17 to 19 C range as air of subtropical origin may be mixing in with relatively mild air masses from the western Atlantic.

    My local weather remained almost wintry on Sunday with a constant fall of drizzly wet snow, keeping ground cover stable as slow melting was cancelled out by the new snow falling. We did a short driving tour to discover that no snow was lying as close as 1 km southeast of the town at 980 meters, but 15 to 20 cms had brought down some tree limbs on the higher northwest side of the town. The highest temperature all day was around 3 C.

    Will be assessing Lorenzo's track this afternoon and may have an update between now and the usual morning forecast time tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 1st of October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    Trends for the week of 1 to 7 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, with an increasing trend. Normal values at this time of year are around 16 C for the daily maximum, and 6 for the daily minimum.
    -- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, 25 to 30 mm in total.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values, about 3 hours a day at this time of year.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will have some patchy light rain mostly over eastern counties, with a slow clearing trend in the west making limited progress into central counties by afternoon. It will be quite cool with northeast winds backing around to northwest later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.

    TONIGHT will bring some clearing in eastern and northern counties, to partly cloudy skies in the south and west. It will become frosty in a few inland valleys. Lows 1 to 5 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with winds generally light and variable becoming southeast by afternoon. Highs will be in the range of 12 to 16 C.

    THURSDAY there will be some impacts from nearby remnants of Lorenzo tracking close to Donegal Bay and the north Ulster coast. As the storm is expected to weaken rather steadily, these impacts are more likely to be moderate (yellow alert status) than severe (orange or red alert) but that possibility still needs to be monitored. The most likely outcome would be south to southwest winds of 60 to 100 km/hr in many parts of the country, and 80 to 120 km/hr near exposed western and later northern coasts. A more severe outcome would add 20-30 to those speeds (but chances are considered low). Some rain is likely at times with heavier falls in the north. Temperatures will be in the 17-19 C range as warmer air is drawn up from the southwest. The most significant impact may be elevated sea states, large swells and breaking waves are likely due to the long duration southwest to northeast track of Lorenzo, and "rogue waves" may develop causing a safety concern for those drawn to the coast for a view of the waves.

    FRIDAY will continue breezy and showers will end, leaving partly cloudy skies, and temperatures near 15 C.

    The OUTLOOK calls for rain and mild southerly winds on Saturday followed by colder weather in a westerly flow for much of the following week, highs dropping back to the 10-13 C range.

    My local weather remained cold on Monday, but with some bright blue skies alternating with low scudding cloud, there was no further snow and most of what was lying close to the town has melted away, with a significant cover still visible on nearby hills. Reports came in that 50 cms had fallen on nearby mountain passes and 65 cms was reported at Lethbridge, Alberta, with over a meter of snow in Waterton Lakes National Park on the Alberta-Montana border. Those heavier amounts were partly due to orographic uplift effects. Except on mountain summits most of this snow will gradually melt away in the coming week although temperatures are likely to remain rather chilly here. Meanwhile it has been unseasonably warm in eastern North America and a strong low has formed along the air mass boundary in the northwest Great Lakes region.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update __ Tuesday 1st of October 2019 __ 9:30 p.m.
    =======================================

    The chances of a high impact storm are growing with models beginning to converge on a track for Lorenzo that either skirts the north coast of Mayo or makes a landfall in Mayo or even Galway, by Thursday afternoon. The further track would then be east to southeast into the Irish Sea.

    There appears to be enough forcing from the upper low capturing Lorenzo to warrant the possibility that orange level warnings will be quite likely in Connacht and Clare, and possibly even a local red alert for areas south of the landfall zone. That could be either Galway Bay or around Donegal Bay depending on how this plays out.

    Will be assessing this carefully overnight (your time) and the morning forecast may have later information unknown to us at this hour, but for now would say expect a higher impact storm in the west certainly, and possibly spreading some distance inland through central counties if the trajectory is further south than some guidance shows.

    The timing appears to be locking in on Thursday afternoon and evening for the strongest winds (which could be in excess of 120 km/hr in exposed areas) to arrive, except Thursday night and Friday morning possibly along the east coast which could get sideswiped by strong northerly gusts (80-100 km/hr) as the low moves towards Wales.

    It doesn't appear as though rainfall will be too heavy but Lorenzo's rain will be falling on saturated watersheds in some parts of the country after heavy rains in late September (Ballyhaise for example reported twice normal monthly amounts).

    And with the long fetch amplifying swells and waves, the sea state around the Clare, Galway and Mayo coastlines could be a safety concern. Luckily we are going to be several days after new moon by Thursday but even so, a storm surge of considerable size is possible. Will leave the details on that to the relevant authorities, monitor their forecasts closely if you're near any coasts as there will be widespread elevated high tides at certain times during this event.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 2 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    Update on Lorenzo -- Hurricane Lorenzo has recently moved past the western Azores islands of Flores and Corvo, with hurricane force gusts reported. It is already about 150 miles northeast of them now and moving very rapidly towards Ireland. The main portion of the Azores had some tropical storm force winds at times but escaped the main hurricane bands with some squally showers overnight. Almost all guidance now shows Lorenzo becoming "extra-tropical" (a more traditional low in other words) in the next 24 hours, then approaching Connacht in a gradually weakening condition, finally swerving southeast from Donegal Bay to make a landfall between Mayo and southwest Donegal by Thursday evening, and the steadily weakening low tracking southeast towards Dublin overnight, then crossing the south Irish Sea Friday morning.

    Forecasts here are based on the prudent choice of a somewhat higher end of the range of possibilities as maps hint at a weakening trend developing just before the landfall stage. It should be noted that Lorenzo will be tracking fairly close to the coast for 9 to 12 hours before making the landfall so that weakening might not apply to its strength while approaching the coast. And a key point is that the elevated sea state conditions, with large swells and breaking waves likely out ahead of the storm, would not be much affected by any weakening trends late in the period. The ocean effects will be the most reliable part of the projected scenario and Galway Bay in particular as well as other west coast bays should be prepared for some coastal inundation and battering waves on exposed shores.

    (Trends are the same as reported yesterday and will return once Lorenzo is past).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see a gradual increase in cloud and the arrival of lower cloud layers in the west by afternoon, but the sun will be dimly visible through the higher cloud layers. It will feel rather brisk despite a drop in wind speeds for most of the day. Winds will be veering gradually around from northeast to southeast as a weak ridge drifts east, and the start of the southerly flow ahead of Lorenzo arrives tonight. Highs today will reach about 15 C in the south and 12 C in parts of the north.

    TONIGHT will continue overcast with a slowly increasing southeast wind reaching 40-60 km/hr at times near south coast. Rain may move into some western areas towards morning. Lows will be 7 to 10 C.

    THURSDAY will be cloudy with increasingly strong southeast to south winds, and intervals of rain. Rather mild with highs 17 to 20 C. Winds will be 50 to 80 km/hr for most areas during the day, but could reach 80-110 km/hr by late afternoon on the west coast. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm will be widespread, 15-20 mm in Donegal and perhaps northwest Mayo. Although the centre of Lorenzo will remain off the coast, large swells and waves will impact the west coast and to a lesser extent other coasts, by mid-day and through the afternoon.

    THURSDAY NIGHT will see the strongest impacts on land, and as discussed, there is some chance that the storm will tend to blow itself out over the ocean just before hitting land. However, in the event that it retains some intensity to landfall, there is a risk of winds in the 80-120 km/hr range in coastal Connacht and 70-110 km/hr in west Munster, later extending into the midlands. These will veer from southwest to west then northwest as the low tracks into central Ireland. Some outbreaks of heavy rain (20-30 mm) are likely north of the track, with a few squally showers near and to the south of the track (a further 5-15 mm there). Temperatures will be steady 10 to 13 C. The southeast will likely remain less windy throughout and conditions from Dublin to Waterford and possibly as far as Cork could be relatively moderate until morning.

    FRIDAY the remnants of Lorenzo will be tracking south of Dublin if not over the capital, but with much reduced wind speeds in general. Once into the Irish Sea, winds may pick up briefly from the north at 50-80 km/hr. Otherwise most parts of the country will soon be in a more moderate northwest wind flow, backing around to westerly. Some bands of rain or showers will persist for the morning hours then a gradual clearing is expected once the weak remnants of Lorenzo reach southern England. Highs will reach about 16 or 17 C.

    SATURDAY will be mild with intervals of rain and southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, clearing by afternoon with winds easing to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Temperatures will fall rapidly Saturday night.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and cooler with lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C. Another batch of wind and rain is expected by Sunday night into Monday.

    The outlook for next week is for colder weather to arrive after the Monday frontal system moves through, highs with that around 15 C but later in the week closer to 10-12 C, and some risk of slight frosts at night.

    My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and still rather cold, highs near 10 C. The snow has pretty much disappeared in town now but still lies 15 to 30 cm thick over higher terrain close by to the northwest. We have had little leaf fall yet although a nearly complete change in autumn colours (the local forests however are mostly coniferous, only in the town and lower down into the Columbia valley can one find many autumn colours on display).

    Watch for updates on Lorenzo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 3 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    UPDATE on storm Lorenzo -- The powerful extratropical low is now approaching the M6 buoy which is located about 200 miles west of Galway Bay. The latest wind reports there are southeast 56 km/hr gusting to 93. Waves of six metres have been reported with a period of just seven seconds. That is quite an active sea state although ten metre waves may occur eventually. Large swells are likely to hit the west coast all day with increasing severity during the afternoon. The main forecast problem is, will the very strong winds stay just off the coast or will they move some distance inland? The storm is predicted to keep moving northeast all day then make a rather abrupt turn southeast and move inland over north Connacht or Donegal this evening. The further south that actually happens, the larger will be the wind impacts for Connacht and the midlands as the storm tracks through north-central Ireland. A more reliable impact will be locally heavy rainfalls in Donegal and some other parts of the northwest; anywhere that remains to the north of the track will see more rain than places south of the track. Regions near the south and east coasts will have more moderate impacts and it may not be until Friday morning that Dublin feels much of the effects, and if the storm weakens to the maximum extent shown on some guidance, that may not be a very strong impact. However, there are still some models showing a more significant impact. We will go with a middle-ground forecast with the caveat that it could turn out a bit stronger or a bit weaker than implied in the forecasts.

    Trends -- for the week ahead -- temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall about 25% above normal, and sunshine near normal.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become quite windy especially near the west coast, and some rain will move into western counties, with bands of showers and possibly a thunderstorm embedded moving through central and eastern counties later in the day. It will be warmer with highs 17 to 20 C. The winds will start out southeast 50 to 80 km/hr by mid-day, 70-110 km/hr near the west coast, and possibly higher (to 130 km/hr) on exposed islands and headlands. Over the near Atlantic winds will be force 10 to 12 southerly. Large waves and swells are anticipated with some coastal flooding possible at times near high tides.

    TONIGHT will remain quite windy in the west, with outbreaks of heavy rain in Donegal and some parts of north Connacht, into central Ulster and eventually north Leinster. 20-30 mm rain could fall with localized flooding in these areas. Temperatures will be steady 11 to 13 C except around 7 to 9 C in Ulster. With the low tracking inland, winds in these areas will back around from southeast to northeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Further south, occasional showers in blustery westerly winds likely. Some parts of the Connacht coast could see brief intervals of very strong winds to 120 or even 130 km/hr as the decaying remnants of Lorenzo move inland. Timing and exact location best left to a later forecast when the storm has made its final turn to land. Newport, Clifden, Connemara and Galway Bay are possible locations for these strong wind gusts. Sea states will remain quite high especially on the Atlantic coast.

    The effects of the storm may be less conspicuous in some parts of the inland south, southeast and midlands. The range of possible outcomes would be between moderate southwest to west winds and showers, to storm force gusts and squally showers. This forecast will be updated this evening so check out the latest information.

    FRIDAY will continue rather blustery in the morning hours with a calming trend by afternoon in most regions. A few remnant showers will move away by mid-day to leave partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 15 to 17 C.

    SATURDAY will bring bands of light to moderate rain, 5-15 mm likely, followed by a partial clearing trend by afternoon. Winds will be southerly veering to westerly, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and the temperature range will be 8 to 16 C.

    MONDAY will see further rain, strong southwest winds, and highs near 18 C.

    The rest of next week looks unsettled but colder in stages, although further rain at times may bring in brief temperature rises to 14 C.

    My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and a bit milder at 12-14 C.

    An update will be issued late afternoon to early evening, or earlier if necessary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 3 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    UPDATE on storm Lorenzo -- The powerful extratropical low is now approaching the M6 buoy which is located about 200 miles west of Galway Bay. The latest wind reports there are southeast 56 km/hr gusting to 93. Waves of six metres have been reported with a period of just seven seconds. That is quite an active sea state although ten metre waves may occur eventually. Large swells are likely to hit the west coast all day with increasing severity during the afternoon. The main forecast problem is, will the very strong winds stay just off the coast or will they move some distance inland? The storm is predicted to keep moving northeast all day then make a rather abrupt turn southeast and move inland over north Connacht or Donegal this evening. The further south that actually happens, the larger will be the wind impacts for Connacht and the midlands as the storm tracks through north-central Ireland. A more reliable impact will be locally heavy rainfalls in Donegal and some other parts of the northwest; anywhere that remains to the north of the track will see more rain than places south of the track. Regions near the south and east coasts will have more moderate impacts and it may not be until Friday morning that Dublin feels much of the effects, and if the storm weakens to the maximum extent shown on some guidance, that may not be a very strong impact. However, there are still some models showing a more significant impact. We will go with a middle-ground forecast with the caveat that it could turn out a bit stronger or a bit weaker than implied in the forecasts.

    Trends -- for the week ahead -- temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall about 25% above normal, and sunshine near normal.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become quite windy especially near the west coast, and some rain will move into western counties, with bands of showers and possibly a thunderstorm embedded moving through central and eastern counties later in the day. It will be warmer with highs 17 to 20 C. The winds will start out southeast 50 to 80 km/hr by mid-day, 70-110 km/hr near the west coast, and possibly higher (to 130 km/hr) on exposed islands and headlands. Over the near Atlantic winds will be force 10 to 12 southerly. Large waves and swells are anticipated with some coastal flooding possible at times near high tides.

    TONIGHT will remain quite windy in the west, with outbreaks of heavy rain in Donegal and some parts of north Connacht, into central Ulster and eventually north Leinster. 20-30 mm rain could fall with localized flooding in these areas. Temperatures will be steady 11 to 13 C except around 7 to 9 C in Ulster. With the low tracking inland, winds in these areas will back around from southeast to northeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Further south, occasional showers in blustery westerly winds likely. Some parts of the Connacht coast could see brief intervals of very strong winds to 120 or even 130 km/hr as the decaying remnants of Lorenzo move inland. Timing and exact location best left to a later forecast when the storm has made its final turn to land. Newport, Clifden, Connemara and Galway Bay are possible locations for these strong wind gusts. Sea states will remain quite high especially on the Atlantic coast.

    The effects of the storm may be less conspicuous in some parts of the inland south, southeast and midlands. The range of possible outcomes would be between moderate southwest to west winds and showers, to storm force gusts and squally showers. This forecast will be updated this evening so check out the latest information.

    FRIDAY will continue rather blustery in the morning hours with a calming trend by afternoon in most regions. A few remnant showers will move away by mid-day to leave partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 15 to 17 C.

    SATURDAY will bring bands of light to moderate rain, 5-15 mm likely, followed by a partial clearing trend by afternoon. Winds will be southerly veering to westerly, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and the temperature range will be 8 to 16 C.

    MONDAY will see further rain, strong southwest winds, and highs near 18 C.

    The rest of next week looks unsettled but colder in stages, although further rain at times may bring in brief temperature rises to 14 C.

    My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and a bit milder at 12-14 C.

    An update will be issued late afternoon to early evening, or earlier if necessary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Update _ Thursday 3 October, 2019 __ 9 p.m.
    ===============================

    It appears that Lorenzo will be making that right turn over the next few hours and drifting into a landfall near Donegal Bay around 0300h. The storm will be weakening at a steady pace after midnight, so despite the closer approach to land the peak wind gusts on the northwest coast are likely to come around midnight, if in fact they increase much from current levels. Higher waves are likely to impact the coastline too as the zone with highest reported waves (from ocean buoys) appears to be 50 to 150 miles southeast of the cyclone's centre.

    In general terms, the forecast remains unchanged. Expect moderate southwest to west winds in most areas overnight, with some stronger gusts near exposed western coasts. In Donegal and later in other parts of Ulster, winds will back from southeast to east then northeast in response to the track of weakening Lorenzo (expected to run roughly Sligo to Dublin late overnight and through Friday morning).

    As the depression weakens rather rapidly, effects will moderate faster than any trend of strengthening due to reduced distance from the storm, so in most cases, it will appear to be weakening steadily even as it makes a closer approach to your location. However, there will be localized effects from what's left of the circulation, such as a brief period of moderate northerly winds behind the centre as it passes any given location. That might apply to the east coast by mid-morning although in its final stages, the once powerful storm becomes so weak that we would classify it as a frontal wave by the time it reaches south central England Friday afternoon. Around that time, most of the direction of winds over Ireland will jump over to the approaching Atlantic frontal system timed for Saturday late morning so that southerly winds will resume and Lorenzo's influence will be wiped out entirely at that point.

    Some rather heavy rainfalls are now expected in Connacht and Ulster, 20 to 40 mm possibly. The combination of this with prolonged moderate winds and saturated soils will probably result in some trees falling (onto power lines or across roads in the dark in some cases) so be aware of those hazards if driving anywhere overnight. This may be more of an issue than might be expected from the wind speeds alone.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 4 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, highs near 15 C and lows near 5 C.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, totals of 40-50 mm can be expected.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal, or about 3 hours per day.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will continue rather blustery with a moderating trend by late morning in the western counties, and by afternoon in the east where a peak in wind speeds will arrive just before mid-day, as a decaying Lorenzo plods across the country, having made a landfall recently near Donegal Bay. Some intervals of rain will continue, adding 10-15 mm rainfall to totals already received, and this may lead to some spot flooding. Watch for debris on roads in western counties from both flooding and wind or coastal inundation. ... Winds will become westerly at about 50 to 70 km/hr in Leinster and the midlands, and ease from 70-110 km/hr in the west to similar speeds (50-70). Then this afternoon there will be further moderation in wind speeds with some clearing and sunny breaks setting in. Highs will be around 15 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will have some clear intervals for a while, then increasing cloud and strengthening southerly winds reaching 60-90 km/hr by morning. Temperatures may fall for a while then rise after midnight, in the range of 6 to 10 C. Rain by morning in western and central counties.

    SATURDAY will see the band of rain, 10-15 mm for most, moving rapidly east followed by partial clearing, and winds easing to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and breezy, becoming windy late in the day near Atlantic coasts, with rain by evening. Lows 1-4 C and highs about 16 C.

    MONDAY will be windy with rain at times, 10 to 15 mm likely, and highs near 17 C.

    The rest of next week will be blustery, rather cool at times, with rain or showers most days, and highs in the 13 to 16 C range. The following week (into mid-October) looks quite chilly at this distance.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast but dry, with highs around 10 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 5 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which are around 15 for maximum, 5 for minimum).
    -- Rainfall will average near normal values (about 30 mm in total for most places).
    -- Sunshine will average within 25% of normal values also (about 3-4 hours a day).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see a band of rain moving gradually east across the country, with 10-15 mm potential rainfalls. Winds moderate southerly 50 to 70 km/hr with the rain will veer more to westerly later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with moderate westerly breezes and lows 5 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, with isolated and brief showers possible mostly near Atlantic coasts and hills. Moderate southwest winds will continue, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

    MONDAY will be a rather breezy and mild day with outbreaks of light rain from early morning to mid-day, some hill fog at times, and after lows near 12 C, highs of 16 to 18 degrees. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed areas. Partial clearing will spread in from the west during the afternoon leading to some late afternoon sunshine.

    TUESDAY will be blustery and a bit cooler with passing showers, winds west-southwest at 50 to 70 km/hr, and after lows near 8 C, highs will reach about 14 to 16 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain mainly in northern counties, moderate westerly winds, and a temperature range from lows near 7 C to highs near 16 C.

    THURSDAY will be breezy to windy with a few showers, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY will bring intervals of rain and temperatures steady 12 to 15 C.

    The outlook calls for rather cool (11-14 C) and unsettled weather the following weekend (12th-13th) with some risk of strong winds and heavy rainfalls developing from a strong Atlantic low around Sunday 13th or Monday 14th. After that it could turn rather cold for about a week (8-12 C) as the upper level flow becomes increasingly northerly in direction.

    My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few breaks and passing spotty showers, only trace accumulations, with highs around 10 C. The recent snow can still be seen on nearby hills but has slowly retreated back up to around 1200 meters now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 5 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which are around 15 for maximum, 5 for minimum).
    -- Rainfall will average near normal values (about 30 mm in total for most places).
    -- Sunshine will average within 25% of normal values also (about 3-4 hours a day).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see a band of rain moving gradually east across the country, with 10-15 mm potential rainfalls. Winds moderate southerly 50 to 70 km/hr with the rain will veer more to westerly later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with moderate westerly breezes and lows 5 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, with isolated and brief showers possible mostly near Atlantic coasts and hills. Moderate southwest winds will continue, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

    MONDAY will be a rather breezy and mild day with outbreaks of light rain from early morning to mid-day, some hill fog at times, and after lows near 12 C, highs of 16 to 18 degrees. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed areas. Partial clearing will spread in from the west during the afternoon leading to some late afternoon sunshine.

    TUESDAY will be blustery and a bit cooler with passing showers, winds west-southwest at 50 to 70 km/hr, and after lows near 8 C, highs will reach about 14 to 16 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain mainly in northern counties, moderate westerly winds, and a temperature range from lows near 7 C to highs near 16 C.

    THURSDAY will be breezy to windy with a few showers, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY will bring intervals of rain and temperatures steady 12 to 15 C.

    The outlook calls for rather cool (11-14 C) and unsettled weather the following weekend (12th-13th) with some risk of strong winds and heavy rainfalls developing from a strong Atlantic low around Sunday 13th or Monday 14th. After that it could turn rather cold for about a week (8-12 C) as the upper level flow becomes increasingly northerly in direction.

    My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few breaks and passing spotty showers, only trace accumulations, with highs around 10 C. The recent snow can still be seen on nearby hills but has slowly retreated back up to around 1200 meters now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 6 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 degree above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be dry in most places and partly cloudy with a few isolated showers near northern coasts and hills. Moderate southwest winds may strengthen towards late afternoon as rain approaches the west coast. Highs 15 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will be wet and windy, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, and 10-20 mm rainfalls with some heavy bursts in western counties around midnight, reaching eastern counties before dawn. Lows will be 10 to 13 C.

    MONDAY will see the rain clearing eastward and there could be some decent sunny breaks in many areas, with brief but locally intense showers with hail and some thunder possible. Winds will continue southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 15 to 18 C.

    TUESDAY will be blustery and a little cooler with more frequent showers and some steady downpours in parts of the north and west at times. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. Winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr

    WEDNESDAY will also be rather windy with passing showers, or intervals of light rain, winds west-southwest around 70 km/hr at times. Lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, and heavier rain by evening. Less windy, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

    FRIDAY looks quite wet especially across the south, but with a gradual clearing trend by afternoon and evening. Lows near 7 C and highs again near 15 C.

    OUTLOOK ... It is likely to be rather unsettled next weekend and into the first part of the following week with temperatures a bit lower than this week, around 12-15 C. There is some chance of a heavy rain and strong wind event around the middle of the week.

    My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy but with a few nice sunny breaks, after some mid-day heavy showers as a weak front drifted through the region. It was rather cool with highs only around 9 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 7 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will be about 25% above normal in the west, but somewhat below normal in the southeast. Most other parts of the country will end up close to average.
    -- Sunshine will amount to 75% of normal values or about 2-3 hours a day.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, and it should stay fairly dry once the last of the light drizzly rain ends over Leinster this morning. There could be some isolated showers mainly in the north. Highs 15 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT will become overcast with occasional rain, as the southwest winds continue in the 40 to 60 km/hr range. Lows near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be rather blustery and a bit cooler with more widespread showers and chance of a thunderstorm, highs 14 to 16 C. Winds will be somewhat more westerly at times, 50 to 70 km/hr. Total rainfalls 5 to 10 mm for most, 10 to 20 mm in parts of Connacht and west Ulster.

    WEDNESDAY will also be breezy and unsettled with slightly higher temperatures reaching 15 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, but a heavier band will develop late in the day lasting overnight. Highs near 16 C.

    FRIDAY will start out wet with gradual improvements later in the day, highs near 15 C.

    The outlook is basically more of the same, trends remain about normal for mid-October if perhaps slightly cooler than this week, and there will continue to be rather frequent rain, generally showery but sometimes heavy in Connacht and west Ulster.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 14 C. We are now overcast and expecting some light rain that will probably turn to snow Monday night here giving another coating of 2 to 5 cms, then quite a cold spell for this early in the season will follow. Meanwhile, there is some chance of tropical storm development east of Bermuda, and an associated coastal low developing east of Virginia, but these systems are more likely to stay in the western Atlantic than move anywhere close to Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 8 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 October

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values (14-16 C max, 4-6 C min).
    -- Rainfall will be somewhat higher than average in most areas; about 30-40 mm can be expected in total.
    -- Sunshine will average reasonably close to average with partly cloudy to overcast skies quite normal at this time of year.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see an increase in cloud followed by outbreaks of squally showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, and blustery southwest winds increasing to 60 to 90 km/hr in some places. Rather cool with highs 13 to 16 C. About 5 to 15 mm of rain can be expected.

    TONIGHT will continue blustery and cool with passing showers or intervals of light rain, lows near 7 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be breezy and it may feel a bit warmer by afternoon at least in the south, as highs reach 14 to 17 C. Some showers will occur but there will be some longer dry intervals too.

    THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times by late in the day. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

    FRIDAY will start out with rain then a partly cloudy afternoon will follow, with temperatures in a similar range (7 to 15 C).

    SATURDAY will be breezy with temperatures near normal and some scattered showers, although some longer dry intervals may develop. Highs will be 15 to 17 C.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy with rain at times becoming heavy again by evening. Highs near 15 C.

    The outlook for next week is unsettled, rather wet at first, then as it turns colder by mid-week, not as wet but still on the showery side. Highs during the week will likely trend down from mid-teens to around 10 C.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast and mostly dry but with the odd patch of drizzle or light rain. The high was about 13 C. A strong cold front is moving into the area now and we're expecting rain followed by snow, about 2-5 cms on the ground by morning, and clearing with strong north winds, a real shot of wintry arctic air that is rather unusual on this side of the Rockies (and Selkirks, this had to cross two mountain ranges to escape its more normal confines of the prairies).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 9 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values (14-16 C max, 4-6 C min).
    -- Rainfall will be somewhat higher than average in most areas; about 30-45 mm can be expected in total.
    -- Sunshine will average reasonably close to average with partly cloudy to overcast skies quite normal at this time of year.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be breezy and it may feel a bit warmer by afternoon at least in the south, as highs reach 14 to 17 C. Some showers will occur but there will be some dry intervals with occasional sunny breaks. Winds west-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr should ease somewhat by later parts of the afternoon and evening.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and showers will tend to die out, resuming towards morning. Lows 3 to 7 C.

    THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times by late in the day. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

    FRIDAY will start out with rain then a partly cloudy afternoon will follow, with temperatures in a similar range (7 to 15 C).

    SATURDAY will start out with some dry and partly cloudy conditions with a rather cool start to the day (morning lows 2 to 6 C), then it will turn more cloudy with rain spreading in from the south, and present indications are that it may stay rather chilly with highs of 13 to 15 C.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy with rain at times in the morning, with some 15 to 25 mm amounts possible. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

    The outlook is for unsettled weather to continue next week, with temperatures just a degree or two lower than this week, which one might expect with the gradually falling normal trend curve. There are some faint signs of a more settled period at some point before the month ends as high pressure seems to be wanting to build up gradually in the central Atlantic, so the main question there will be whether that gets close enough to provide a settled interval or stays off to the southwest promoting more of this unsettled windy weather.

    My local weather turned quite cold on Tuesday and there were a few snow flurries in the region, not much accumulation in town here but some slushy accumulations on higher ground nearby. The high was only about 4 C. We could fall to -5 C by Wednesday morning if skies clear up during the day. Brilliant fall colours now with the recent frosty nights and not much leaf fall yet. Meanwhile, after weeks of very warm summer-like weather that extended past the autumn equinox into October, the eastern regions of North America are turning more seasonable as an Atlantic storm circulates air in from the northeast, it's far enough offshore that not much rain is reaching land but cloud extends past the U.S. east coast now -- at Washington DC where they had a record high of 37 C last week, highs are settling into the 15-20 C range this week. Also of interest, a typhoon is going to approach Japan in a few days' time, there's a thread about that subject and potential impacts on sporting events elsewhere in the forum.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 10 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average slightly below normal (by about 0.5 to 1.0 deg).
    -- Rainfall will be near average; heavier rain appears to be heading for Britain though.
    -- Sunshine will struggle to reach 80% of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, 10 to 15 mm possible. Highs near 14 C. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain, lows near 7 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain, highs near 14 C.

    SATURDAY will be cooler with some intervals of partly cloudy skies and some patchy areas of light rain, more likely near the south coast. It will be less windy however. Lows near 2 C and highs near 12 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, some areas of rain may be quite close to Munster but may remain offshore, further north there could be some isolated showers. Lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C.

    MONDAY will bring some outbreaks of rain, while heavy rain moves north into Britain. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

    The outlook for the rest of next week calls for unsettled and cool weather with some moderate west to northwest winds at times, highs generally in the 10 to 13 C range.

    My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy in the morning to sunny by afternoon, and quite cold, with a high around 3 C. Clear and frosty outside now at 11:30 p.m., and several dry days ahead but only a slight warming trend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 11 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 October 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values which are highs around 15 C and lows around 5 C.
    -- Rainfalls will average fairly close to normal as well, 30 to 45 mm can be expected in total.
    -- Sunshine will have enough chances to make an appearance to rack up the usual 3 hours a day for mid-October.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny intervals, moderate southwest to west winds, and passing showers feeding in from the Atlantic, not necessarily making it all that far across the country so perhaps 2-5 mm rainfalls in the west and (not counting what already fell) 1-3 mm in the east. Any lingering rain in the southeast should be moving out soon. Highs 11 to 15 C.

    TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and a good view of the nearly full moon. Rather chilly with lows 2 to 5 C.

    SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, but with a trend to increasing cloudiness especially in southern and western counties, where some outbreaks of rain could begin by late afternoon. Highs 10 to 14 C.

    SUNDAY will be rather cloudy and becoming misty over higher terrain as light to moderate rain begins to spread slowly inland from coasts. Lows will be 1 to 5 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

    MONDAY will have some wet intervals at first, moderate northerly winds will develop as low pressure deepens over Britain bringing them some heavier rain, while Ireland slowly clears from the west with highs near 13 C.

    TUESDAY will become rather windy from a southerly direction and there will be some heavy showers along a front expected to move steadily east, with temperatures near 13 C.

    The rest of next week looks a bit colder still, with highs only around 10 or 11 C, and outbreaks of rain. There is nothing but unsettled and rather chilly weather on the charts for several weeks and even colder weather could set in at some point late in the month.

    My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cold temperatures that started out around -5 C and reached perhaps 4 C at peak before dropping back below freezing at sunset. This cold air is feeding into a developing storm over the plains states that will bring a heavy wet snowfall to the Dakotas and Manitoba, while pumping up some relatively warm air into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 12 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 October 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.
    -- Rainfall will also be fairly close to a normal weekly total, Tuesday looks to be a fairly wet day with most of that rain then.
    -- Sunshine may get enough opportunities to edge up towards normal as well.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out with some sunny intervals in the east, increasing cloud central and scattered showers, one or two with thunder or hail briefly, in the west. Those showers will tend to die out but more will follow and some of them will make it most if not all of the way across the country during the afternoon. There will also be some patchy light rain edging onto the south coast later in the day. Rather cool, with highs around 12 to 15 C.

    TONIGHT will have some clear intervals in parts of the midlands and east, rather cloudy elsewhere, lows 2 to 5 C.

    SUNDAY will bring variable cloud and scattered outbreaks of light rain, about 2 to 5 mm for most. Highs 12 to 15 C.

    MONDAY could have a spell of heavier rain in the southeast as part of a disturbance moving through Britain bringing some heavy rainfalls there at times Sunday into Monday. Further west and north, skies may be brighter and showers less widespread. Lows near 4 C and highs around 13 C.

    TUESDAY will see increasingly strong southerly winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times, with periods of rain becoming heavy near the end of the day, 10-20 mm likely. Lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and blustery with passing showers, some with hail or thunder, and westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue rather cool and unsettled in a west to northwest wind of 40 to 60 km/hr, highs both days 11 to 13 C.

    More active weather systems are due around the weekend of the 19th-20th and into the early part of the following week, but there may be a short break in all this disturbed weather later that week with higher pressure, possibly rather cold with that too.

    My local weather on Friday was very nice, although cold, the sun felt warm enough with light winds, and the high was about 8 C.

    Typhoon Hagibis is bearing down on the Tokyo-Yokohama region from the southwest (they are eight hours ahead of Irish time so the core of the storm will be near Tokyo by about 7 to 9 p.m. local time). It appears to be steadily weakening from its earlier cat-2 intensity and might be only a tropical storm by the time it crosses a small part of southeast Honshu tonight local time, and it should be long gone by Sunday in their time zone, whether that means disruptions to the rugby (Scotland v Japan) or not remains to be seen. Over half of the rain expected to fall with this event has already happened and as Hagibis collides with a frontal boundary, most of the rain will be north of that boundary as is already evident on radar. The Irish match is far outside the zone affected by this storm, moderate northerly winds and temperatures around 16 C are prevailing over western Japan with partly cloudy to sunny skies both days this weekend there. I've heard some dire predictions about this storm and I hope they don't happen, but with these systems, it's mostly a risk of river flooding and storm surges, rather than wind strength. In the hilly terrain of that region, flash flooding can be a very destructive outcome due to mudslides blocking rivers then releasing large quantities of water. This has happened several times recently in Taiwan as well.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 13 October, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 October, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average about 25% above normal in many areas, possibly 50% or more above in west Munster.
    -- Sunshine will average 80 to 110 per cent of normal.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start with some outbreaks of rain in Leinster and partly cloudy skies in most other areas. A few scattered outbreaks of light rain will develop in those initially dry locations while the early rain will drift further north while weakening. Highs 11 to 14 C. Rainfalls 3 to 7 mm.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers in most areas, but moderate to heavy rain may develop near the southwest coasts. This will move gradually north and also will spread further east by morning. Lows 4 to 7 C.

    MONDAY will likely be quite wet in parts of Munster and possibly south Leinster, although the situation remains a little uncertain; a rather small-scale low is expected to loop around near Kerry and some of its heavier rain may remain off the coast. There is potential for 15-30 mm rainfalls whether on land or not, and some local flooding if this hits higher terrain in west Munster. Many other areas could have a largely dry day with outbreaks of scattered showers giving smaller amounts further north. Highs 10 to 13 C.

    TUESDAY will start out dry in many areas but rain will spread in from the Atlantic and it will become rather windy, southerly gales near the west coast and 50-80 km/hr further east. About 15-25 mm rain can be expected with this front, and temperatures will be steady 12-14 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy, blustery with southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, showers with some hail possible. Highs near 12 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with passing showers and cool west to northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, lows around 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

    There is little change in the unsettled pattern beyond the end of the week, although one or two dry days may come along in the mix as the distance between systems looks to be increasing further ahead. Some very cold air is lurking over Scandinavia at times during the second week of the forecast period and could be making a run towards Britain if not Ireland later in the month.

    My local weather was partly cloudy to overcast but dry, and cool with highs of about 7 C. There are some clear intervals tonight here and glimpses of the full moon, which is more precisely timed for Sunday at 2209h IST (2109 UTC). You may get a view of it in some places this evening.


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