FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Rather amusingly, GFS is going for more or less a repeat of the snow event last Sunday, for next Monday night. It wants a rapidly developing low pressure system to cross across the very south of the country and with almost the same trajectory as last Sundays event. More or less a carbon copy of last Sundays event except in this case, snow would be falling at night which would result in a rush hour disaster the next morning. Take this with a massive pinch of salt as it's unlikely to become reality. Having said that, it happened a few days ago!

Artane2002 wrote: »

99.9999% won't happen but imagine if this perturbation came off

Is it just me who can't see it?

highdef wrote: »

Is it just me who can't see it?

It's working for me. It's GEFS Perturbation 14, showing a very extreme wind event. I'll repost it to see if it will work now

ECM also chiming in, funnily enough I looked at its 14th member instead of GEFS by total accident, but it seems to be the strongest of all ECM. Coincidence or are GEFS/ECM related?

I was just having a look at my windy app & it's showing multiple days of 90km gusts Sunday - Thursday, it seems from Saturday onwards the jet is in full force.

Well I posted in the Spring discussion thread that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for those who would like some drier and warmer conditions.

There continues to be these signals starting next week with high pressure ascending from the south though timing and position will obviously be impossible to tell.

GFS 18z shows the high pressure just to the south of us at times but at other times over us with the jet stream being pushed northwards if maybe a bit close for comfort to delivering great sunshine to the north.

Chart for +210 hrs away showing high pressure centred around the Bay of Biscay drawing in milder west to southwesterly winds over Ireland and maybe a fair amount of cloud at first. These winds become more southeasterly a few days following it and the run has a lot of high pressure after this.



ECM 12z delayed the ascendance of the high to our shores but it gets there in the end with the prospect for good spells of sunshine and mild/warm temperatures.



CFSv2 continues to project high pressure dominating during the final week of March and into April.

It's all a long way off and this is the Fantasy Island thread after all so pure speculation. If these signs continue though, we should see the weather ushering in a drier and calmer spell towards the second half of this month. As the saying goes, March comes in like a lion, goes out like a lamb.

EDIT: Just noticed that this is a Winter FI charts thread?

Its been a dreadful first half to the month here, hasn't stopped raining for more than a few hours since the start of the month, should be seeing a stretch in the evenings by now but street lights are still coming on around 5pm most evenings with the constant dark, wet conditions. Seriously craving some bright sunny weather now

sryanbruen wrote: »

More signs of the weather settling down by this time next week onwards from the ensembles of both the GFS and ECM.

ECM clusters show high pressure establishing over us is currently the most favoured option (cluster #1) with cluster #3 also similar but maybe much more of a chance of sunny spells with #3 as #1 looks cloudy in nature. Cluster #2 is more unsettled but not a total washout and similar to M.T.'s forecast. Cluster #3 looks like one that would produce unusually warm temperatures if it were to verify but that's the least likely option out of the 3 right now.



GEFS looks like a cloudier scenario with the jet stream fairly close by but conditions generally on the dry side with high pressure laying just to the south of us.

Some week I picked for the South of Spain. If this comes off then it'll probably be a wash out down there

Gonzo wrote: »

I don't mind unsettled muck between now and mid May. Let the cold and snow wait till next December and let the settled high pressures and southerly winds/plumes wait for the Summer.

I don't want to derail the thread but I wouldn't mind more of this weather until mid or late April. It's the most interesting weather we've had since November in my opinion. If we can get more northwesterlies then great.

To make this sort of on topic since we're talking about summer a bit, at the moment I think it's going to be front loaded, we are seriously overdue a notably good August though... we have had some slightly better than average ones but nothing that stands out.

Carol25 wrote: »

While it’s lovely to get nice weather in March...If I had to choose between a high pressure in March or one in June/July, it’d pick the summer every time. I don’t think a settled spell in late March bodes well for the summer going on previous years...but I am open to being corrected on that ��

Agree, good summers seem to be extremely rare after warm springs. Hopefully April will be cool and unsettled.
High pressure in March is like northern blocking in November - you hope its a sign of things to come for winter but deep down you know its coming too early and is just a complete waste!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2018112000/ECM1-0.GIF?00