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Property Market 2018

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  • Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭Andycap8


    Cairn Homes is at 144c - 28% off its 52 week high
    Glenveigh(sp) is at 83c - 34% of its 52 week high

    The REITs (IRES & Hibernian) are a little more stable but the listed home builders are not doing well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    All Glenveigh do is build residential properties in the cities around Ireland. I had a look at the share price chart and its fallen off a cliff since the middle of summer. Anyone have any ideas why? Very interesting Andycap8, thanks for sharing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,670 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    My random thought for the day...

    I grew up in Dublin, so my perspective is based on that... Wealth disparity is moving from a south/north divide to an east/west divide and what is worrying is that in the future we will have a property owning class v's a renting class.

    That is all for now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Zenify wrote: »
    All Glenveigh do is build residential properties in the cities around Ireland. I had a look at the share price chart and its fallen off a cliff since the middle of summer. Anyone have any ideas why? Very interesting Andycap8, thanks for sharing.

    1) All the Europe stock market is down for ~10% since June, while Irelands Stock Exchange is around 15% down.
    2) Expectations on constructions sector. On the negative side regarding construction in Ireland, is the slowdown in price/demands, while increase in costs, in particular shortage of labor, and some materials like timber and steel etc. For this year they plan to reach capacity of 800units. And increasing to 1400 by 2020. Unfortunately this won't happen if the property price won't go up, since the costs would go up anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭sunnyday1234


    snotboogie wrote: »
    mike_cork wrote: »
    The lack of properties to rent in Cork City is scary at the moment. When I go onto Daft.ie for a cursory look at available properties to rent i am shocked at how few are available/how expensive they are/how many views each available property is getting i.e.people desperate to find somewhere.

    Absolutely loads in the pipeline though; 800 in Carrigaline, 600 in Glanmire and 200 in Ballincollig all under constructuon. Douglas alone has nearly 1,000 units in the fast track planning, with another two sites with capacity for over 1,000 again on the market. Mahon got planning for 600 units, Glounthane and Sundays Well got planning for 200 units each and the docklands Marquee site sold and has capacity for 1,000 apartments. All of this in a city with a population of just over 200,000. If the economy stays strong and the rampant NIMBYs are kept at bay, the discussion in Cork will start to move away from housing and towards chronic transport congestion.
    Agreed, the link is already becoming the new M50. We all know about the tunnel and little island is a disaster. I am commuting into Cork from North Cork for 10 years now and it has gotten so much worse in that time, its unreal


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  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭sunnyday1234


    snotboogie wrote: »
    mike_cork wrote: »
    The lack of properties to rent in Cork City is scary at the moment. When I go onto Daft.ie for a cursory look at available properties to rent i am shocked at how few are available/how expensive they are/how many views each available property is getting i.e.people desperate to find somewhere.

    Absolutely loads in the pipeline though; 800 in Carrigaline, 600 in Glanmire and 200 in Ballincollig all under constructuon. Douglas alone has nearly 1,000 units in the fast track planning, with another two sites with capacity for over 1,000 again on the market. Mahon got planning for 600 units, Glounthane and Sundays Well got planning for 200 units each and the docklands Marquee site sold and has capacity for 1,000 apartments. All of this in a city with a population of just over 200,000. If the economy stays strong and the rampant NIMBYs are kept at bay, the discussion in Cork will start to move away from housing and towards chronic transport congestion.
    Agreed, the link is already becoming the new M50. We all know about the tunnel and little island is a disaster. I am commuting into Cork from North Cork for 10 years now and it has gotten so much worse in that time, its unreal


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    https://www.cisireland.com/media/21466/cis-q3-2018-construction-activity-report.pdf

    Interesting report with a significant section on residential developments Q1 to Q3 2018. Very interesting figures on the fast track planning too


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Agreed, the link is already becoming the new M50. We all know about the tunnel and little island is a disaster. I am commuting into Cork from North Cork for 10 years now and it has gotten so much worse in that time, its unreal

    I visited Cork a load of times over the past 12 months and I could not believe the traffic situation. The city is just overloaded. The junction at the end of the M8 is being redeveloped I think which should help, it's a disaster. If they can remove all the lights it'll help no end.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Dublin is already at stupid levels of traffic.

    How ever demand is so high especially from FTB and renters that it's pointless complaining about the bad planning. Anything goes theses days. They'll build anywhere.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    beauf wrote: »
    Dublin is already at stupid levels of traffic.

    How ever demand is so high especially from FTB and renters that it's pointless complaining about the bad planning. Anything goes theses days. They'll build anywhere.

    Yes FTBs and bad planning are the reason for the stupid levels of traffic in Dublin. We must stop all building in our capital city.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    Yes FTBs and bad planning are the reason for the stupid levels of traffic in Dublin. We must stop all building in our capital city.

    Thus far its move everything to Dublin.
    How will people move around, dunno.

    Hows that working out for you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 593 ✭✭✭engiweirdo


    The next big plan is turn Cork into Dublin mk2. We're absolutely blessed to have such amazing minds in charge of this nation. Blessed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,344 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    beauf wrote: »
    Dublin is already at stupid levels of traffic.

    How ever demand is so high especially from FTB and renters that it's pointless complaining about the bad planning. Anything goes theses days. They'll build anywhere.

    If you think Dublin traffic is bad now you haven't seen anything yet. Congestion really isn't that bad here and we have a lot worse to come.

    Traffic is a huge factor in prices of property. Given planning gets blocked all the time I don't know how you can say anything goes.

    Personally I won't work anything that take longer than a hour to get to. Friends bought further out from the city because they weren't going to spend "crazy" money for a small house when they could buy bigger for less further out. Then he is all surprised when his commute started taking longer and longer as more and more houses were built in between his house and the city. I literally had a conversation with him about how his commute would get worse as time went on. Now he has 4-5 hour daily commute which is about what I do in a week. The expense of the 2 cars they have is huge and their kids are in the cars for hours each day. No way to live but their choice


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 612 ✭✭✭KevinCavan


    I’m actually glad rents are at Fcukin crazy levels and that houses have shot up in price. I can’t wait for the wheels to come off, the more mad it gets the better at this stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,344 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    KevinCavan wrote: »
    I’m actually glad rents are at Fcukin crazy levels and that houses have shot up in price. I can’t wait for the wheels to come off, the more mad it gets the better at this stage.

    Ah the belief that there is some cosmic rule where everyone has their comeuppance. The people who suffer are those at the bottom it is no surprise those who are homeless are the low earners and those with needs that are suffering now. The guy who losses a million of his 2 doesn't really suffer that much.

    Not so long ago there were plenty of people laughing at those in negative equity. These people have houses are years through their mortgages.

    The obsession with a bust as a constant inevitable outcome because one happened recently. It would be odd for another one so quick as we are still dealing with the affects of the last one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    KevinCavan wrote: »
    I’m actually glad rents are at Fcukin crazy levels and that houses have shot up in price. I can’t wait for the wheels to come off, the more mad it gets the better at this stage.

    Why ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 612 ✭✭✭KevinCavan


    Why ?

    Because it’s madness here at the moment, I’d like it to come to a shuddering halt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 133 ✭✭CalRobert


    Not to plug, but I did make a tool specifically for finding places that are a reasonable not-driving commute. Might be of interest.


    www.gaffologist.com



    Choose where you work (Heuston, Cork, Docklands, etc.) and get color-coded train stations with arrivals/departures and nearby places for rent or sale.


    timetable.png




    Heuston.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,344 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    KevinCavan wrote: »
    Because it’s madness here at the moment, I’d like it to come to a shuddering halt.

    I guess some people just want to see the world burn


  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭ElektroToad


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    I guess some people just want to see the world burn

    It's more frustration. But can you blame him? The world is already slowly burning for a whole generation of people because their lives have been effectively on hold due to the mess we are in!

    Don't forgot we have whole generation of workers (now prob late 20s-mid 30s) that first the entered the workforce during the depths of the great recession when we faced very high rates of youth unemployment. And now, just as the majority have finally got stable jobs and made a start on decent careers, they realise have little to no hope of achieving home ownership due to lack of housing and a dysfunctional rental market.

    These people aren't getting any younger you know!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,549 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    It's more frustration. But can you blame him? The world is already slowly burning for a whole generation of people because their lives have been effectively on hold due to the mess we are in!

    Don't forgot we have whole generation of workers (now prob late 20s-mid 30s) that first the entered the workforce during the depths of the great recession when we faced very high rates of youth unemployment. And now, just as the majority have finally got stable jobs and made a start on decent careers, they realise have little to no hope of achieving home ownership due to lack of housing and a dysfunctional rental market.

    These people aren't getting any younger you know!

    every new generation thinks they had it harder than the last :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,325 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    I feel sorry for people I was talking to someone who rents out a room in their house yesterday and its crazy the amount of interest they were getting and from all over the world families from SA, couples from eastern Europe despite the fact that it was a single room.

    Out of curiosity what does someone consider a reasonable price for a small apartment for a single person or 3-bed semi for a family?


  • Registered Users Posts: 283 ✭✭TSQ


    It's more frustration. But can you blame him? The world is already slowly burning for a whole generation of people because their lives have been effectively on hold due to the mess we are in!

    Don't forgot we have whole generation of workers (now prob late 20s-mid 30s) that first the entered the workforce during the depths of the great recession when we faced very high rates of youth unemployment. And now, just as the majority have finally got stable jobs and made a start on decent careers, they realise have little to no hope of achieving home ownership due to lack of housing and a dysfunctional rental market.

    These people aren't getting any younger you know!

    Interesting analysis recently - people who enter the workforce during a recession never catch up in terms of earnings or career progression with those who start a career during a boom. They settle for jobs below their skill levels and lower salaries, just to get on the ladder, and never catch up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Cyrus wrote: »
    every new generation thinks they had it harder than the last :rolleyes:


    screen%20shot%202017-02-13%20at%20104907.png


    Nobody "thinks" anything. Millennial ARE the first generation that won't be richer than the previous. Don't mix this up with us thinking we have it rough etc., the standard of living continues to improve. Everyone is aware of that.


    I think the willingness for young people to see a crash is based on the farcical situation we've gotten ourselves into. We have vast borrowings and interest payable to our creditors. Services like health housing and transport crumble around us. We are trapped by our own debt and it's suffocating us. Young people because they own nothing are less concerned with a paper write down of assets. I believe a debt default of some sort would allow us to start again. Investing in our own services while also bringing asset costs down to facilitate the return to a more normal mode of operation.

    It feels like the last rescue package was soft reset (or stay of execution) when a hard reset was required. If Brexit happens and ends up working well, it won't be long until our populist political system is looking to follow suit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,344 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    It's more frustration. But can you blame him? The world is already slowly burning for a whole generation of people because their lives have been effectively on hold due to the mess we are in! !

    Yes I do blame him for his view. Just because he can't get what he wants he wants everyone else to suffer. You can't get more selfish than that.

    Calling it the great recession is hilarious. You just aren't aware of how things were before. The 70s and 80s were much worse. The standard of living is amazing now compared to then. Unemployment was way higher and they didn't count mothers as unemployed then.

    People in their 40s already know they can never own a house now. Homeownership was always going to have to come down in Ireland because it was the highest in the world. As we developed we were always going to become more like the rest of the world.

    The world isn't burning in any shape or form. Reality has come in where many people in Ireland will never own.

    Either way just because you don't get what you want wishing ill on others is just nasty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,344 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    TSQ wrote: »
    Interesting analysis recently - people who enter the workforce during a recession never catch up in terms of earnings or career progression with those who start a career during a boom. They settle for jobs below their skill levels and lower salaries, just to get on the ladder, and never catch up.

    Have you data to back that up? I meet people I used to work along side of and they are exactly where I left them 15 years ago. Their salaries are much lower but they stayed there so in your eyes that is because they had no options. They did have options but they never took them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    If you think Dublin traffic is bad now you haven't seen anything yet. Congestion really isn't that bad here and we have a lot worse to come.

    That might depend where you are. It can take me 40 mins to get a mile at peak from my house. Last week a trip across the city took 2hrs. Thats a journey that was taking abut 45 mins last year. It quicker to walk/cycle than drive across most of the city. My 14k commute is quicker on a bicycle. The gap is just getting bigger.
    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    Traffic is a huge factor in prices of property. Given planning gets blocked all the time I don't know how you can say anything goes.

    Very little gets blocked. Maybe it feels more than that if something you want gets blocked. But they are stuffing housing in every nook and cranny. Anyone has a spare bit of Garden, boom its now a house. Space for some house, boom a 6 storey apartment block. The fact that the area outside is a car park for half the day doesn't matter. Build apartments beside a train line. Great except the train is already at capacity so they all drive instead.

    How about build a proper cycle lane up the quays, nah thats blocked for a decade or so. Cycle lane in the at the end of the phoenix park has had no surface for about 4yrs.

    How about leaving some space for road widening, for cycle lanes and bus lanes. Nope build right up to the current tiny road, leaving the route screwed forever.

    Where I am in the city there's cranes all around. But almost no high rise buildings.


  • Registered Users Posts: 286 ✭✭abcabc123123


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    Calling it the great recession is hilarious. You just aren't aware of how things were before.
    The term is widely used by economists, journalists and even the IMF. There's pretty broad agreement that it was the most severe economic downturn since the depression. It's not just entitled millennial snowflakes being dramatic.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    ...
    People in their 40s already know they can never own a house now. Homeownership was always going to have to come down in Ireland because it was the highest in the world. As we developed we were always going to become more like the rest of the world. ...

    They won't get a house where they want certainly. Move out of Dublin and it becomes an option. Though you might have to also change your life goals and find work outside of Dublin.

    Economic policy is focused entirely on Dublin. So escaping the rat race I think it becoming more interesting to people.

    A while back people moved out of Dublin simply to buy a house. I'm seeing a new trend where people move their lives out of Dublin entirely. Better life/work balance.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    I find out it interesting, that when we speak about Dublin, we typically have in mind 3 bedroom house. While in other big cities around Europe, the most common properties are 2 bed apartment. And I think this creates additional problems for city planning, and lack of properties.


This discussion has been closed.
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