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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: here

    Apologies, the forecast I mistook for the official NHC one was in fact the CSU forecast (Colorado State University) which is probably tied with TSR as the next-best long-term forecast after NOAA itself.

    https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/05/2018-06.pdf

    This was published on May 31, nearly two months after the previous April 5 report which called for an above-average season:
    We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

    I can't find the report which tied the negative AMO / low Atlantic SSTs to the strong +NAO, should've bookmarked it, but it was a similarly credible one. Might possibly have been TSR, I'll have a look tomorrow and see if I can find it in my history. The correlation between a strong Azores high and unfavourable wind shear for hurricanes was made in the same document IIRC, and it was only published in the last couple of weeks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    So normal service is on next week with the jet stream arriving back from its holidays and if some of the runs are correct especially the latest GFS 0z, we could be in for some very wet days from Wednesday evening onwards. Here's examples of bands of rain that the GFS 0z showed:

    Wednesday 13th afternoon/evening

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    Thursday 14th morning

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    Friday 15th evening

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    Monday 18th afternoon

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    6WixgFz.png

    Rainfall totals in some areas going by the above could be totalling more than 50mm in these few days which will be the wettest period anywhere has seen since early April. So the GFS leaves a lot to be desired.

    The ECM continues to delay the Atlantic somewhat to Thursday/Friday than Wednesday but nevertheless, we do go into a westerly regime. The ECM at +240 hours does show the Azores attempting to throw up a ridge to the south just abouts.

    In terms of the temperatures, both models show generally average temperatures though by the third week of June (which is well into FI), the GFS shows negative upper air temperatures (temperatures below 0c). However, now that the GFS is back to its normal self i.e. it chops and changes very quickly, don't really expect this to hang on for long - just look at what the 12z showed the other day in FI above for example.

    The potential of another warm spell for the end of June continues, no changes on that though the GFS 0z run is not that promising (unless you're really in need of rain).

    BOZ9Tt4.gif

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes the charts are showing an end to it all by mid June.

    Still what a spell.

    Dont be too evil weather Gods.

    remember we had 10 months of rain and no grass growth before this coz of cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    Yes the charts are showing an end to it all by mid June.

    Still what a spell.

    Dont be too evil weather Gods.

    remember we had 10 months of rain and no grass growth before this coz of cold.

    Sshhhhh they don't know that. :D

    Outlook is still much the same with the 12z models. Perhaps Tuesday will bring in a very brief ridge from the Azores. The GFS 12z OP is a very cool run - see in the ensembles here - thankfully for the moment, it's an outlier and temperatures are on the up again here in the ensembles following this Atlantic onslaught or interlude.

    Q8f5SLC.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,070 ✭✭✭Kutebride


    Oh man Friday 15th :( Boo the breakdown. Following with interest.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The return of the westerlies has been downgraded today with no precipitation spikes appearing at all (for Dublin at least) until next Friday. These precipitation spikes that do appear then are very small and not really a lot of wet weather being shown on the ensemble. Warm weather seems to have extended 'til then too as you can see from the ensemble. Previously it looked like going until the 11th (next Monday) so that's quite an upgrade. It also appears that there is like one single day on the ensemble with average 850hPa temperatures and all the rest relatively warmer than average.

    All in all, quite a downgrade of the westerlies but quite an upgrade for warm and dry weather. We shall see if this is a new theme now or if the models are still trying to get a grip of the exact pattern that is going to take place.

    This in some ways reminds me of June 2013 quite a bit. June 2013 started off with a warm and dry spell then the second week was very wet and cool whilst the second half was largely changeable.

    The jet stream is very close to the west on both the GFS and ECM runs but the Azores keeps throwing up ridges into the south and east of the country shoving the jet stream northwestwards. +240 hrs on the ECM 0z really showed the Azores ridge taking over the pattern.

    gfsQg8B.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    saw that too

    i still think therel be a cool down next week but hopefully not a severe breakdown

    a few days of 17 or 18c and a small dropeen of rain and then back into the 20s to end the month


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Hopefully we only get a small drop of rain in Cork too, has the model for that changed? Can't check myself on mobile atm


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Hopefully we only get a small drop of rain in Cork too, has the model for that changed? Can't check myself on mobile atm

    You have similar ensembles to Dublin above.

    Meanwhile, second consecutive run of the ECM showing the Azores fighting against the Atlantic near the end of its run with the heat building especially to the south of both the UK and Ireland. With that high pressure to the east and south, the low pressures out to the west just cannot push through.

    Only sharing this for fun for now.

    cTxMo8z.gif

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    Increasingly looking like a blip rather than a complete pattern change. Uncertainty remains though.

    The P11 from the GFS 06z ensembles was in particular stunning.

    z0aCQSI.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing possible windy spells on the Atlantic side of the country coming up to and next weekend as LP systems track up towards Iceland, staying well offshore for now but you would imagine some bands of rain. Temperatures fluctuating as warm air is dragged up in SW'lys with probable cold /warm front ( warm sector ) set ups. Charts just for guidance as no doubt will change over the coming days.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM atm showing the jet all over us from the second half of the week getting the Atlantic mobile again and possibly keeping things unsettled for a bit. No sign of HP over us but ECM showing ridging up from the Azores at the end of the run as sryanbruen mentioned. A lot could happen between now and then though.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Unreal GFS 18z. Still too far out in lala land but positive nonetheless


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Unreal GFS 18z. Still too far out in lala land but positive nonetheless

    I think I wold be like JCX BXC and investing in a fan or mini air conditioning unit if that happens !

    gfs-0-288_uwe2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Had a walk outside there and it feels chilly
    Why anyone would want that moving into July is beyond me!!!!!
    Bring on more heat


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Never predict a breakdown


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,078 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I think I wold be like JCX BXC and investing in a fan or mini air conditioning unit if that happens !

    Was I Tesco a few hours ago with their air conditioning, it was great :)

    Love the hot weather, but my God it sticks around at night.

    Slowly becoming acclimatised. Once the cool weather comes back we'll all be in for a shock!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I just logged off for the night. Don’t tell me the Pub Run has gone a bit too much on the overdosing again. Oh boy.

    I mean going by what 2018 has been so far, it seems that every bit of crazy possibility has been happening so I wouldn’t totally rule it out. But then again GFS 18z is the GFS 18z.

    The downgrade of the westerlies was quite dramatic from the previous days. It’s a battle of the Azores High and the jet stream. Who’s going to win?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    A bigger influence from the Atlantic on this morning's runs.

    Accumulated precipitation up to Tuesday 19th.

    fSdCIk4.gif

    Around +288 hrs, the GFS 0z builds this ridge over us from the Azores. ECM does not go out this far, the furthest it can go is Tuesday 19th and by then the high is laying to the south of Ireland with the jet stream over the north.

    5GQKyhV.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    This really is a period of high uncertainty!

    GFS is zonal throughout its run and at times quite cool with quite a dartboard low for Monday 18th/Tuesday 19th. Now it's showing a dramatic upgrade of the westerlies!

    UKMO shows a very deep area of low pressure just to the north Atlantic for later next week as does the GEM. However, the GEM brings in a ridge from the Azores to the south of the country at the time the GFS shows that dartboard low though cloudier close to the jet stream up to the north. Look at it just for fun for now because it's almost certain that it's going to change in its next run.

    A positive thing though is the lack of northern blocking. There are no signs of pressure rising over the Arctic or Greenland to force the jet stream southwards and the Azores High is quite strong.

    GFS 12z

    A19Kv6w.png

    3VdYY2pg.png

    UKMO 12z

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    GEM 12z

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Atrociously bad ECM 12z run in FI. Very different to every run we've had including the ECM 12z from yesterday. It shows northerlies and very cool conditions taking over at +240 hrs.

    2012-like charts here. Yuck!

    0nkcAvH.gif

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    Let me remind you what the ECM 12z yesterday was showing at this time frame.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    surely an outlier syran

    id favour the rain in w and n dry in s and e prediction myself with lows sweeping in to the nw of ireland

    later in June id see potential for more widespread sunshine


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    surely an outlier syran

    id favour the rain in w and n dry in s and e prediction myself with lows sweeping in to the nw of ireland

    later in June id see potential for more widespread sunshine

    It is an outlier in its ensembles and clusters. It was so different to anything we had previously seen.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yikes!

    ECM has it cooling right down.

    tempresult_cgz5.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The model runs weren't that great this morning. Nothing as totally awful as ECM 12z from last night though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    +240 hrs. Away out in FI land , though the ECM is showing cooler then normal temps from +168 to +240 hrs

    ECM0-240_ere0.GIF

    ECU0-240_irb1.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Latest GFS ensembles for Dublin (other places such as Cork again have very similar ensemble charts) show average temperatures through the 15th to the 21st i.e. daytime maxima here between 16-18c. Out to the north and west, perhaps around 14-17c. Interestingly, a brief spike up of temperatures has appeared now ahead of the rain for later next week bringing temperatures temporarily back up to 20 or 21c perhaps for a short period of time before the rain falls in the east?

    In the extended range of the ensembles, it seems the warmth for latter June has been upgraded. The OP run itself shows a warm up for 21st/22nd before a cold front pushes in from the west and cools things back down again but the general ensembles show it warm post-21st. The OP is an outlier in the ensembles again on both the GFS and the ECM continuing the uncertainty of the outlook on exact details.

    Rainfall spikes appearing every day after next Wednesday showing you that the outlook is changeable in spite of the temperatures warming up again in the extended range.

    UlAZ4zz.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS is just an average westerly run. ECM is cool and very unsettled.

    UKMO and GEM are very similar at +144 hrs interestingly enough. UKMO can only go out this far but GEM goes mad with high pressure in FI afterwards.

    This continues to be a nowcast.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Quite high pressure dominated for the majority of the ECM clusters following this unsettled blip. That's two runs of the clusters now showing this. Keep in mind, they were going more towards what the OP run was showing two days or so ago so these are very open to changes as much as the OP.

    F9HbWNN.png

    goK95RF.png

    GFS 0z and 06z both show the high pressure ridging from the Azores early next week and Sunday 17th is of similar evolution to that of the UKMO and GEM last night.

    At the end of the 06z run, the GFS brings in a hot easterly. Just for fun.

    aLiTTQz.png

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    ECM OP vs ECM ensemble mean. ECM OP is once again, an outlier!

    qOAdYbI.gif

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    GFS 06z ensemble mean this time next week with the Azores High attempting to ridge up to us though on the mean (not on the OP run) missing the west close to the jet stream.

    N8BgNdX.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM has changed yet again for this time next week. This is a short burst of heat or warmth on this particular run.

    cY7e1Tr.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    azores high continues to intensify on the gfs run,building entirely over the country towards the end
    of the run,then slipping to scandinavia allowing a nice toasty east wind to blow in.

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This discussion has been closed.
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