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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

12467…20

Comments

  • #92
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    The only consolation is it won’t continue above average wet forever and we might get a better spring summer as a result! Nice day today but as you’ve alluded to on a few occasions, we really need some dry weather to allow the saturated ground to dry up a bit. Endless rain combined with the weak sun and short days has everywhere sodden.


  • #93
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ZX7R wrote: »
    I remember a couple of years ago the eagle did an interview,he was talking about a long run of very wet wether during a summer 96 I think I can be corrected on this, but in the interview he stated if the weather has been the same for so long it doesn't matter what the charts are trending you could bet your house that the weather will continue the same.
    That interview and what he said has always stuck in my mind and he always seems to be correct.

    he could well be correct. If the CFS is anything to go by in their long term outlook, they are signaling this pattern to stick with us right through to June 2020. I really hope this is not the case but it wouldn't surprise me if it did. Once the Atlantic is fully powered up and there is nothing preventing it from running out of steam, it will just go on and on. Most of the long term models in the Autumn were signaling a very zonal and Atlantic driven winter. They have certainly been right so far.


  • #94
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    The cfs is shoite
    There is no technology that can predict weather out that far
    As a programme out that far is just for academia looking at probability theory
    It has no practical forecasting use AT ALL
    Piers Corbyn might be more accurate and his record is up there with stopped clocks

    Nature is a wonderful thing,patterns do get stuck,we had it in 95,2013,2010 and more recently 2018
    The Eagle is right on that
    But stuck patterns eventually change too and when they do,you see it sub 7 days in the models


  • #95
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    The cfs is shoite
    There is no technology that can predict weather out that far
    As a programme out that far is just for academia looking at probability theory
    It has no practical forecasting use AT ALL
    Piers Corbyn might be more accurate and his record is up there with stopped clocks

    Gavs weather was going to discontinue using the CFS Long Range but decided a mixture of the CFS and Beijing CC going forward. Of course most models more than 7 days ahead aren't really worth much, they give insights into what possibly might happen. The past 2 weeks has shown that even 3 days ahead is difficult.

    I will say tho that the long range for Winter is bang on so far, then again the probability of a mild zonal winter outlook has a much higher chance of working out compared to a wintry winter forecast, and last winter was one of those and failed spectacularly.


  • #96
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    I agree the CFS is near useless ^ but it doesn't quite show a continuation of the current pattern on its latest output - Jan 2020 looks cold and easterly driven -

    cfs-1-1-2020.png?18

    cfs-4-1-2020.png?18


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  • #97
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Gavs weather was going to discontinue using the CFS Long Range but decided a mixture of the CFS and Beijing CC going forward.
    just for site content tbh
    I will say tho that the long range for Winter is bang on so far, then again the probability of a mild zonal winter outlook has a much higher chance of working out compared to a wintry winter forecast, and last winter was one of those and failed spectacularly.
    Some of these LRF's are forecasting our climactic norm
    It's easier to be right when you do that.


  • #98
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Only predict a cold snowy winter if you wish to be laughed at ten times* and congratulated once.


    *could be 15 or 20!


  • #99
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A way off but the models similar in showing areas of LP deepening close to Ireland around next Weds. Lively Jet.

    v1jOrkS.png


    gfs-0-162_aab6.png


    gem-0-168_dfd5.png


    SIK6LSu.png

    gfs-5-162_ojw6.png


  • #100
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,054 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Look at that jet. Bound to be a storm sometime next week.


  • #101
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Look at that jet. Bound to be a storm sometime next week.

    Looks like a sharp Temperature gradient. Something to keep an eye on.



    1DKoF8x.png



    4NNBxUg.png


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  • #102
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    so far no end in sight of the mild spell. It just goes on and on. The one positive thing is that it doesn't look nearly as wet as the 4 months leading up to Christmas. Prospects of a cold spell look slim to none over the next few weeks unless there is a serious and sudden change. Low pressure deepening over the pole, Greenland and Scandinavia for first 2 weeks of January. We stay on the warm side of the jet for the entirety of the run.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-12-27&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1


  • #103
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    More under HP influence out to +240 hrs from the main models and GFS goes on in that vein well out into FI . Not all mild , a few colder incursions also but not lasting long more than a couple of days and mostly NW'ly sourced. Around next Fri might be briefly cool going by the ECM and GFS before the SW'lys return.

    HP doing it's job blocking weather systems moving in over us. Strong airflow where the isobars tighten off the W coasts and where the Jet mostly tracks North of the country around the HP.

    ECM going for a remarkable low amount of rainfall the last few runs.

    56eDWiv.gif

    4PnXH4z.gif

    sJGy4UB.png


  • #104
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Looks a bit like last December at a glance. Mild, dry, fitful amounts of sun. I'll take it after the splooge that has been the last two months.


  • #105
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    UW144-21.GIF?29-17


    Is there anything to be said for another Mass?

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


  • #106
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    What does it mean for the uninitiated ?


  • #107
    naughto
    Registered Users Posts: 7,316 ✭✭✭naughto


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    What does it mean for the uninitiated ?

    Get the sun cream out


  • #108
    km79
    Registered Users Posts: 48,131 ✭✭✭✭km79


    A thing of beauty


  • #109
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    km79 wrote: »
    A thing of beauty

    That chart most likely means low cloud and drizzle for those of us in the wesht


  • #110
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    That chart most likely means low cloud and drizzle for those of us in the wesht

    Cloudy, gloomy weather I can tolerate if it is dry, but not when there those constant spits of greasy rain that barely registers anything in the gauge, yet keeps the place absolutely saturated.

    New Moon



  • #111
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,433 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I come here to bring you all HOPE

    *[IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]...*


    *I can't, there is no hope, bye


    :pac:


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  • #112
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Possibly wet and windy next Monday, more so for the W, NW . Tues and Weds could be windy in W, NW also. Looks like a possible roller-coaster of very mild weather to cold weather and back to mild etc etc.

    Mixed weather it would seem. Most of the rainfall keeping to Atlantic coastal counties and in the Western half of the country from Atlantic derived weather.

    tDLjXsC.png


    R01vR2T.png

    FHo21BZ.png

    bReUAyN.png

    63jsGAq.png


  • #113
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS has the Jet firing near the end of the run taking a more Southerly route, showing it becoming cooler from the NW. Maybe getting more active? Will see.

    RppsMWE.gif


  • #114
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has a rip-roaring Jet aimed near and at us next week sending in fast moving disturbances. More so in the Northern half of the country . Looking like a much livelier week.

    CsFEOYV.png

    z66CQje.png

    ughD9EV.png


    nf55Vju.png

    9O5P9hZ.png


    F5HJ47m.png


  • #115
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,870 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A storm seems to be rolling up the 9th or 10th January. At least I will not need to blow out my birthday candles this year.


  • #116
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Still nothing but westerlies as far as the eye can see, some small signs of a pattern change right at the end of the GFS but with a deep Icelandic low ever present its likely fleeting. At that stage we're already half way through the winter with nothing more than a few light frosts to talk about :rolleyes:

    gfs-0-360_pwz0.png


  • #117
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM / GFS showing potential for strong winds / storm conditions around Tues 14th.

    All the models showing a very active mobile Atlantic regime with LP systems and depressions sliding by us, all it takes is for one to be deepening just at the right time and the models showing that potential around the 14th. Worth keeping an eye on it.

    UKMO just goes up to next Sat but can see how unsettled it is out in the Atlantic.

    c1A6bU9.png

    hys6lZ6.png

    6hwKLIi.png

    To0yr4K.png


  • #118
    Santy2015
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Yes windy.com showing gusts of 125kph inland cork kerry region on the 14th


  • #119
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Anybody know what sorts of gusts we can expect inland Cork Kerry region on the 14th?


  • #120
    US2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Anybody know what sorts of gusts we can expect inland Cork Kerry region on the 14th?

    Its 9 days away. No one knows until at least next weekend


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  • #121
    Santy2015
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Anybody know what sorts of gusts we can expect inland Cork Kerry region on the 14th?

    🙈🙈


This discussion has been closed.
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