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Is it the right time to buy? Financial crash

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭M.Cribben


    Those apartments also have an excellent reputation re build quality - many would see them as some of the finest apartments in Limerick, and an excellent location to boot.


    Ah c'mon, there's no getting away from the fact it's a 2 bed apartment in Limerick. 350k is bonkers. It's these type of properties/locations where buyers got burnt most in the last crash.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 732 ✭✭✭DontThankMe


    Don't forget to add on the €2,180.47 in annual service charges. If you live there for 20 years thats an extra €43,609.40 on top of your €350,000 purchase price.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,691 ✭✭✭4ensic15


    Not really, we has plentiful supply in 2006.

    In 2006 the market turned in the early summer. There were people saying in the year after that falling asking prices did not mean that the market was goosed. The reported prices always have a time lag. House prices reportedly peaked in 2007 despite the market stalling in 2006. The reason for the lag is that deals are done, and sales only close months later and are only reported at the end of the quarter. A deal done in April may not close until July and won't be reported until the end of September. Basing market analysis on reported sales means ignoring the time lag and what developments have occurred in the market in the meantime. The prelude to a drop in prices is lower viewing figures, slower sales and dropping asking prices. That is what is now happening. The next end of quarter will show sales agreed as far back as early summer but not show the current trend.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Haven Fancy Slug


    4ensic15 wrote: »


    In 2006 the market turned in the early summer. There were people saying in the year after that falling asking prices did not mean that the market was goosed. The reported prices always have a time lag. House prices reportedly peaked in 2007 despite the market stalling in 2006. The reason for the lag is that deals are done, and sales only close months later and are only reported at the end of the quarter. A deal done in April may not close until July and won't be reported until the end of September. Basing market analysis on reported sales means ignoring the time lag and what developments have occurred in the market in the meantime. The prelude to a drop in prices is lower viewing figures, slower sales and dropping asking prices. That is what is now happening. The next end of quarter will show sales agreed as far back as early summer but not show the current trend.

    Lower viewing figures and slower sales in this quarter could be related to the banks making an absolute mess of their exemptions and slowing lending right down in this quarter. Asking prices dropped in the most expensive parts of Dublin but were up 10 %in North County. I would imagine at the start of next year when the banks have their exemptions back it'll be full steam ahead again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 339 ✭✭frankythefish


    It amazes me that people always talk about a near future crash as being definitive. Just a matter of when. There is no guarantee.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Haven Fancy Slug


    It amazes me that people always talk about a near future crash as being definitive. Just a matter of when. There is no guarantee.

    There will definitely be a crash because unfortunately that's how our economies seem to operate. But in my opinion the 07/08 crash was unique in Ireland for how far properties fell. This go around people are generally limited in their exposure due to new lending rules and the driver for house price rises is supply shortage rather than wild speculation.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 732 ✭✭✭DontThankMe


    It amazes me that people always talk about a near future crash as being definitive. Just a matter of when. There is no guarantee.

    It won't necessarily be a crash but prices are going to fall in the future. It's guaranteed because it's economics 101 and it's part of a the business cycle if the OP doesn't buy and waits for a drop in prices and the majority of potential buyers do the same then the expectation that prices will fall will be a catalyst for them to fall. Since sellers won't be able to sell at current prices they will have to lower their asking prices to meet the expectation of buyers since they won't buy at current prices.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,691 ✭✭✭4ensic15


    Lower viewing figures and slower sales in this quarter could be related to the banks making an absolute mess of their exemptions and slowing lending right down in this quarter. Asking prices dropped in the most expensive parts of Dublin but were up 10 %in North County. I would imagine at the start of next year when the banks have their exemptions back it'll be full steam ahead again.

    The banks will have noticed prices dropping so they will be very sticky about lending 90%. They will also take a harder line on valuations. I am not anticipating a flood of money from the banks to drive the market forward in the Spring. In 2007 people said the market sluggishness was due to the anticipated drop in the stamp duty charge. Stamp duty was reduced but the market fell nevertheless. Next year will bring profit taking, Brexit and the possible curtailment of AirBnb.
    Add nervy banks into the mix and a serious fall is guaranteed.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Haven Fancy Slug


    4ensic15 wrote: »
    The banks will have noticed prices dropping so they will be very sticky about lending 90%. They will also take a harder line on valuations. I am not anticipating a flood of money from the banks to drive the market forward in the Spring. In 2007 people said the market sluggishness was due to the anticipated drop in the stamp duty charge. Stamp duty was reduced but the market fell nevertheless. Next year will bring profit taking, Brexit and the possible curtailment of AirBnb.
    Add nervy banks into the mix and a serious fall is guaranteed.

    You clearly have no clue what you are talking about. "A serious fall is guaranteed"? A drop in prices is possible (though I would say still not probable), but is as far from guaranteed as a doubling of prices. You simply cannot say that because you don't know


  • Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭limerickabroad


    Very interesting topic for those of us in Limerick, thanks OP for starting. Anybody got opinions on the new estate in Castletroy which is being sold from this weekend . . . https://www.daft.ie/limerick/new-homes-for-sale/castlebrook-manor-castlebrook-manor-walkers-road-castletroy-limerick-120631/

    Great location, but those prices are steep!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,683 ✭✭✭masterboy123


    You're welcome.

    Check my other post about these houses in Limerick forum.
    In short, people said they are too tight, small living room and high prices.
    Very interesting topic for those of us in Limerick, thanks OP for starting. Anybody got opinions on the new estate in Castletroy which is being sold from this weekend . . . https://www.daft.ie/limerick/new-homes-for-sale/castlebrook-manor-castlebrook-manor-walkers-road-castletroy-limerick-120631/

    Great location, but those prices are steep!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,691 ✭✭✭4ensic15


    You clearly have no clue what you are talking about. "A serious fall is guaranteed"? A drop in prices is possible (though I would say still not probable), but is as far from guaranteed as a doubling of prices. You simply cannot say that because you don't know

    It has all happened before and will happen again as sure as night follows day. You can blather on with your "fundamentals are all right" and "it will be different this time" reassurances but what will be will be. time for a reality check.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,767 ✭✭✭GingerLily


    Yes, I have a mortgage approved and it's valid for another 10 months.

    I doubt it will stay valid if property prices are dropping like your friends suggest!

    When houses are cheap it's much harder to get credit, something to remember!


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