COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

what do we do when we get acceess to vaccine? i presume we will still have level 3 restrictions. will the government keep these levels forever now, like use level 3 for winter flu season every year or two?

I found this it makes some very good points. A Vaccine isn't going to end the pandemic. Not for some years.

He said those hoping for a breakthrough to end the pandemic would be disappointed, with some vaccines likely to reduce the risk of Covid-19 infection by only 30%.

"None of the trials currently under way are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths," he said.

"Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus."

A linked editorial in the BMJ medical journal comments on the release of the Covid-19 vaccine trial protocols.

30% isn't going to end the need for lockdowns.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

I think people need to lower their expectations.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Fantastic news about J&J today. The participant had a stroke which was not linked to the vaccine itself.

Well ...sobering news for the man and family. Reassuring news for the rest of us....everyone counts!



I hope he is ok!

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I found this it makes some very good points. A Vaccine isn't going to end the pandemic. Not for some years.



30% isn't going to end the need for lockdowns.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

I think people need to lower their expectations.

An opinion piece which suits RTE's harbinger of doom drumbeat.

serious clickbait from the indo today as usual

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Where has this 30% thing come from?

Obviously we'd all love for it to give 100% immunity, but my main reason for thinking the efficiency must be decent is the amount of money the companies have spent on it.

Surely to god there's no way in hell that Pfizer would had spent over 2 billion, on the logistical aspects of their product, if it only offered immunity to a mere 30% of the users.

Not sure if you are being humorous. Of course they would release it. There are several drugs on the market which are known to be almost completely ineffective and some do more damage than good. However, they were released when standards were lower.

A pharma company would release anything that makes a profit if the profits outweigh any potential risks to the company.

Le Bruise wrote: »

‘some men just want to watch the world burn’ - Alfred, 2008

Have to assume most folk abdicating for restrictions forever more are trolling at this stage, they surely can’t think it in all seriousness. The societal and economic damages of long term social distancing and restrictions (beyond say Q2/Q3 next year) would be astronomical!

Very true, that's the only rationale explanation for the outlook of a few posters on here. Yet I still feel compelled to bite!

This 30% thing is the latest fake news from the anti-vaxxers. I don't know where they've come up with that figure, it's obviously not true.

Here's an optimistic interview in the past 24 hours with Francis Collins, the director of the NIH and one of the most respected health institutions in the world.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Really promising news from the Pfizer Ireland CEO. Looks as if he has seen some data tbh.

I share your optimism. I don't think he would have seen any data though, my understanding would be that Pfizer wouldn't see efficacy data until a threshold number of infections has been reached.

Dickie10 wrote: »

what do we do when we get acceess to vaccine? i presume we will still have level 3 restrictions. will the government keep these levels forever now, like use level 3 for winter flu season every year or two?

Bit cynical wrote: »

If a vaccine does not eliminate the virus as people might have thought then we will have restrictions of various sorts to continue for a period longer than most would expect at this point in time.

Applying the metrics that were used in Ireland from June until September (when cases were as low as 14 per day)some restrictions will continue, until hospital capacity is sufficient.

With a vaccine, an acceptable realistic number of Covid deaths needs to be considered to remove all restrictions.

Right now that number seems to be 0

stephenjmcd wrote: »

How ?

It lays out to someone who hasn't been following vaccine updates what exactly is going on.

Its far from the exclusive story they present it as but at least imminent arrival of a vaccine is being recognised

i meant the headline ' vaccine available within weeks'

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Applying the metrics that were used in Ireland from June until September (when cases were as low as 14 per day)some restrictions will continue, until hospital capacity is sufficient.

With a vaccine, an acceptable realistic number of Covid deaths needs to be considered to remove all restrictions.

Right now that number seems to be 0

Of course its can't just be left loose on the non vulnerable population either. It won't have full efficacy on those at risk who receive the vaccine first and there will be those who will not be in good enough health to take the vaccine. There's only been a few 100k infectons in Ireland so far, to remove all restrictions means leaving the entire population exposed to the virus within months, even if the mortatily rate or hospitalisation rate per infected plumets to far low level of what it was, those rates x leaving nearly all the population exposed is still a significant load on the health service. You will still have some form or flattening the curve.

Say if an early rollout to the at risk reduced the severity and load on health service by half, that means acceptable incident levels can double but due the perpetual exponential nature of the spread that doesnt nessescarily mean restrictions that results in an r0=2(level 1-2) at the moment are good enough. The natural unsupressed reproductive rate of the virus was r0=6.

lbj666 wrote: »

Of course its can't just be left loose on the non vulnerable population either. It won't have full efficacy on those at risk who receive the vaccine first and there will be those who will not be in good enough health to take the vaccine. There's only been a few 100k infectons in Ireland so far, to remove all restrictions means leaving the entire population exposed to the virus within months, even if the mortatily rate or hospitalisation rate per infected plumets to far low level of what it was, those rates x leaving nearly all the population exposed is still a significant load on the health service. You will still have some form or flattening the curve.

So the answer to the question about restrictions continuing in some form?

Yes, for a substantial amount of time in Ireland.

Russman wrote: »

I’m sure this has been discussed earlier in the thread, but is the expectation with the first few vaccines that they’ll reduce symptoms but not prevent infection ? Or are they expecting some level of immunity from infection, be it weeks, months or years ?

I’m just trying to get it clear in my head how transmission of the disease will be slowed/stopped.

No, the current crop of vaccines will not protect from infection of the virus (Cov-2), but the hope is they will prevent illness (Covid). So vaccinated people will still get infected but hopefully will not get any symptoms, and thus not get sick.
This alone is good because for us it means that less infected people will get sick so less strain on the health service.

In terms of immunity from the virus/reduction of spread, I don't think these vaccines will prevent spread from a vaccinated infected person. But, there is a chance that the vaccines could reduce how infectious a person is. The theory being that a vaccinated immune system will kill a lot of the virus in people bodies before it replicated to the point where they are shedding virus. This part is only speculation at the moment I believe but fingers crossed.