What are the chances of a coup in Britain?

HalloweenJack · 12-09-2019 10:49am

@realdanbreen.

38 years ago is recent? Seriously? I know perception of time is related to people's age but you'd have to be a hundred to conisder something that happened 38 years ago as 'recent'. I'm well aware of Spanish history, I've lived here for seven years (not much time in your world, I'm sure). In 1981, Spain was isolated and slowly transitioning from a military dictatorship into a democracy. Spain in 1981 is quite different from the UK in 2019.

I would consider things that have happened since the beginning of the Brexit/populist strongman era (since the run-up to the 2015 GE and the elections of the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, et al.) to be recent in a political context.

In that time, what coups have there been? The failed one in Turkey? Does Turkey have the same political situation as the UK?

I doubt one is coming round the corner in the UK. It's not impossible, nothing is if recent developments in politics is anything to go by, but it is highly unlikely. There are too many eyes on the UK for a military coup (this is the definition of coup the OP clarified and wants to run with). It would only push them further into isolation and I think it is slowly dawning on them that that won't be such a great thing. Politically, I imagine there are enough checks and balances to stop this situation escalating.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 11:15am

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

I've listed some above but there's plenty more in the last 50 years or so.

I wouldn’t describe any of those as recent. Spain was coming out of a fascist dictatorship in the 70s

Oh right, you reckoned I was referring to some coup that happened last night!

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 11:19am

HalloweenJack wrote: »

@realdanbreen.

38 years ago is recent? Seriously? I know perception of time is related to people's age but you'd have to be a hundred to conisder something that happened 38 years ago as 'recent'. I'm well aware of Spanish history, I've lived here for seven years (not much time in your world, I'm sure). In 1981, Spain was isolated and slowly transitioning from a military dictatorship into a democracy. Spain in 1981 is quite different from the UK in 2019.

I would consider things that have happened since the beginning of the Brexit/populist strongman era (since the run-up to the 2015 GE and the elections of the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, et al.) to be recent in a political context.

In that time, what coups have there been? The failed one in Turkey? Does Turkey have the same political situation as the UK?

I doubt one is coming round the corner in the UK. It's not impossible, nothing is if recent developments in politics is anything to go by, but it is highly unlikely. There are too many eyes on the UK for a military coup (this is the definition of coup the OP clarified and wants to run with). It would only push them further into isolation and I think it is slowly dawning on them that that won't be such a great thing. Politically, I imagine there are enough checks and balances to stop this situation escalating.

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Jim2007 · 12-09-2019 11:20am

realdanbreen wrote: »

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

OK, buy yourself an extra role of tinfoil and you'll being fine. Alternatively ask these kind of questions on a conspiracy forum.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 11:22am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Oh right, you reckoned I was referring to some coup that happened last night!

If you use the word recent then you have to justify it. Those countries that had coups also have a different relationship between army and state.

Franz Von Peppercorn II · 12-09-2019 11:29am

realdanbreen wrote: »

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Which would make WWII about 10 minutes ago and mean the napoleonic war ended about 26 minutes ago.

Everything is recent.

faceman · 12-09-2019 11:44am

While highly unlikely, at the same time of you think back 5 years who would have thought Brexit, a mass firing of Tories, manipulation of the law to suit a PM agenda would also would be a thing.

realdanbreen · 12-09-2019 11:56am

Jim2007 wrote: »

realdanbreen wrote: »

I always understood that you provide the serious analysis when you answered the question not when you asked it?

OK, buy yourself an extra role of tinfoil and you'll being fine. Alternatively ask these kind of questions on a conspiracy forum.

tinfoil? I didn't mention conspiracy you did.

Brian? · 12-09-2019 12:04pm

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Which would make WWII about 10 minutes ago and mean the napoleonic war ended about 26 minutes ago.

Everything is recent.

In fairness, if something happened within my lifetime I’d consider it recent.

Zubeneschamali · 12-09-2019 12:11pm

Peregrinus wrote: »

It depends on what you mean by a "coup".

I certainly don't regard Johnson bumbling about knocking over traditions and setting records for incompetence is a coup.

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...

I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:31pm

In the 1970s a retired army Major in the UK had a go.

t sounds fantastic, almost comic. But watch Greenwood talk of setting up his own private army in 1974-75. Listen to the former intelligence officer Brian Crozier admit his lobbying of the army, how they "seriously considered the possibility of a military takeover"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/mar/15/comment.labour1

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:37pm

retired Major Alexander Greenwood, Colonel Blimp made flesh.

The great and the good feared that the country was out of control, and that Wilson lacked either the will or the desire to stand firm. Retired intelligence officers gathered with military brass and plotted a coup d'etat. They would seize Heathrow airport, the BBC and Buckingham Palace. Lord Mountbatten would be the strongman, acting as interim prime minister. The Queen would read a statement urging the public to support the armed forces, because the government was no longer able to keep order.

HalloweenJack · 12-09-2019 12:37pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

So you reckon that something that happened 38 years ago is what, ancient history? In historical terms it's similar to something having happened 5 minutes ago.

Tejerazo is no longer relevant to political discourse in Spain. Therefore, it can hardlt be considered recent.

Brexit is very much of recent relevance in the current political context.

4068ac1elhodqr · 12-09-2019 12:40pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...
I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

From the yellowhammer (only 5 pages?, with many parts redacted on the grounds of commercial sensitivity)

"Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. "There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions."

If a modern progressive state such as HK can almost shut down over some policy, perhaps anything is possible. Throw in fuel, food and medical shortages with immediate price hikes could get messy.

More likely is yet another 3mth delay, more fumbling about, and sooner or later the saviour of sorts JC will arrive with his interesting array of policy (some good some bad). 4-day work weeks, taxes on the rich, open doors and Brexitish2.0.

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:47pm

I am reasonably sure Brexit will work its self out, however, people are very naive if they don't think there are civil emergency plans if thing go wrong not a coup, but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.

4068ac1elhodqr · 12-09-2019 12:59pm

mariaalice wrote: »

...but school and university would be closed for a few days that sort of thing.

Likely the least of their worries, peoples bigger concerns would be finding a working ATM, filling up their wagons with gas, sourcing medicine, fresh food and paying new bills that will rise overnight as a couple of hundred thousand confront each other in the city.

James Brown · 12-09-2019 3:54pm

There was a coup. Johnson is still engaging in it.

20silkcut · 14-09-2019 9:14am

faceman wrote: »

While highly unlikely, at the same time of you think back 5 years who would have thought Brexit, a mass firing of Tories, manipulation of the law to suit a PM agenda would also would be a thing.

In fairness mass firing of moderate tories was unthinkable at the start of this year when Theresa May was doing everything to hold the party together.

20silkcut · 14-09-2019 9:21am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I certainly don't regard Johnson bumbling about knocking over traditions and setting records for incompetence is a coup.

To get the UK into Coup territory, imagine No Deal goes through, Yellowhammer turns out to be super optimistic, there are real food shortages, panic buying, then just panic, looting, police and then army on the streets, a million people descend on Parliament, met by a half a million Brexiteers, riots, live ammo, blood in the streets, Johnson still bumbling about being ineffective...

I don't think any of that is particularly likely, but in those conditions an actual coup becomes possible.

If you look at the Venezuela situation and I don’t have much knowledge of it but it does appear to be a country in conditions similar or probably far beyond a worst case brexit scenario, and the government is still in power spouting spurious rhetoric and fantasy as to why they are in the situation they are in. People can put up with a lot if they buy in to what they are told or if the army stays on side I suppose.
I have no doubt hard brexiteers will put up with a lot of hardship to follow through on brexit and unfortunately all the political charisma and energy is on their side to sell whatever narrative needs to be sold.
However it is still difficult to believe such a situation could occur in such a sophisticated well connected prime located country like the UK. So much depends on this Supreme Court ruling next week.

alentejo · 14-09-2019 10:02am

A coup in Britain? One should read Chris Mullin's "a very British Coup". An excellent read which was written over 30 years ago but so relevant with the political chaos in the UK.

RandomName2 · 15-09-2019 5:40pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

What sort of coup? The one where a minority political force becomes the de facto government through force of arms? The separation of politics and the army in the UK seems pretty conclusive, I can't see any chance of a political group exerting force by using the army.

The difference that Brexit would make is a motivation by Remainers to undo Article 50, but they are working against a legitimacy deficit in the first place seeing that the public voted for just that, returned (barely) a government that said it was going to carry it out, and pro-Brexit parties are polling at 55% (even if, interestingly, a hypothetical second referendum is apparently only polling at 45% Leave) .

Not saying that Remainers or Leavers aren't and won't resort to political dirty tricks (a lá John Major and Maastricht), but those are a far cry from using physical force.

The other motivation is of course by pro-Bexit politicians who want a deal. These politicians are already in a majority in parliament, so there's no coup required. The problem is that these politicians can't agree what kind of agreement is desired.

And finally you have the pro-Brexit politicians who don't want a deal at all. These are in the minority, but they don't need a coup. All they need for no deal to happen is literally nothing at all.

Hello 2D Person Below · 15-09-2019 5:41pm

Peter Hitchens has longed for the death of the Tory Party. He might get his wish soon.

There'll be a split, undoubtedly.

Corbyn has done a great job keeping Labour together despite the differences in the party.

A coup on the otherhand, I doubt it somehow.

Eric Cartman · 15-09-2019 5:48pm

Hello 2D Person Below wrote: »

Peter Hitchens has longed for the death of the Tory Party. He might get his wish soon.

There'll be a split, undoubtedly.

Corbyn has done a great job keeping Labour together despite the differences in the party.

A coup on the otherhand, I doubt it somehow.

the only way he's keeping them together is sheilding them from critacism behind his magic forcefield of not being able to win an election. They'd much rather shout from the cheap seats knowing that theres not a chance they'll be put to task to sort out brexit. As soon as all this mess is sorted theyll swap him for someone who can win.

realdanbreen · 26-09-2019 8:56am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Serious question. What with all the turmoil uncertainty etc and the fact that most business organisations are fuming and scared sh*****s over Brexit what is the likelihood of a coup? I mean there have been plenty of coups in Europe in relatively recent years, Poland,Spain,Portugal, Greece etc.

Looking at the images coming from the house of commons last night I don't think it's too far fetched.

NotToScale · 26-09-2019 9:04am

I’d suspect the more likely outcome is going to be serious social unrest. The UK has a track record for this, despite the stiff upper lip marketing that somehow managed to portray the country as pragmatic and sensible, it really never has been.

Go back to the Poll Tax riots, the Miners’ Strikes, the Winter of Discontent etc etc even the Troubles in Northern Ireland occurred in the UK, despite their attempt to see it as somewhere else.

Then more recently you’d the London riots and you’ve had the assassination of an MP.

A coup isn’t likely, chaos, disruption and violence however seem to be and I suspect you will see that if there’s actual issues with food supply or power or something like that when Brexit happens. It’s a country where people called 999 when KFC had a minor disruption that caused them to run out of chicken!

sandbelter · 26-09-2019 10:20am

Coup is zero likelihood. The best and most relevant precedent is the dismissal of the Australian government on Nov 11th, 1975.

Here the crown played a passive role. The then speaker of the Australian House of Representatives send letter to the Queen to intervene.

The pertinent part of the reply is this;

"Her Majesty, as Queen of Australia, is watching events in Canberra with close interest and attention, but it would not be proper for her to intervene in person in matters which are so clearly placed within the jurisdiction of the Governor-General by the Constitution Act."

Replace "jurisdiction of the Governor-General by the Constitution Act" with "Westminster parliamentary procedures" and you get the likely attitude of the Queen, who is head of the armed forces. Additionally she is also mindful of how intervention gave Australian republicanism a short in the arm. So no coup, at least under the current Monarch. Charles.....different kettle of fish.

So I agree with the riots scenario.

Peregrinus · 26-09-2019 11:05am

You're assuming that a coup has to be led by the Queen?

NotToScale · 26-09-2019 2:37pm

The Queen doesn't necessarily have that ability under the UK constitution. Australia, as a former colony, is quite a different setup.

I think you have to also put it into the context that she's extremely elderly. Not many people at 93 years of age would be all that keen to be throwing themselves into a vicious political fight.

Effectively though, in the British setup, she is really powerless. All age can really do is maybe break convention and make a speech calling for calm.

realdanbreen · 26-09-2019 3:01pm

Reece-Mogg has been a jolly firm supporter of Boris for some time sitting /slouching behind him and throwing in the odd Hear hear. But I thought he looked a little uncomfortable last night on the bench and seemed to be thinking to himself "Why/How is this clown my boss! "

keeponcoming · 27-09-2019 6:47pm

its happening before your eyes, a democratic vote result is being ignored, a unelected panel of judges has now decided that the politicians are not in charge , that is now the unelected judges role.

What are the chances of a coup in Britain?

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