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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

13

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,764 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    That deepening low that was on yesterdays run is much further South on Sun the last two runs and not shown as deep. Generally on the cooler side from +120 hrs with a warm day or so thrown in it would seem. Relatively cool over the Bank Holiday Weekend, around 15 to 18C range, looks showery at times. Most of the rain showing up in the Western half of the country with the old reliable Atlantic seaboard counties soaking up most of it.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,764 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Bah!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Whilst opening period of August looks somewhat changeable, I am thinking a bit more positively now about the end of the first week into the middle third of the month.

    ECM 12z is an extreme example that would lead us down to heatwave conditions and possibly our warmest August period since 2003 if it were to verify. The below chart would be conducive to a more prolonged pattern than just anything transient. In fact, I'd say it would be very similar to spring but given the time of year, it'd be much warmer.

    Other models not as keen as this but I must say, I am not seeing a washout at all or even the cool/dull signal that has plagued this summer since the end of the June warm period.

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    An ongoing theme has been that the teleconnections will be more in favour of a warmer, dry period during August compared to what we've seen this summer. I was somewhat skeptical at first due to bias in models but looks like a trend now to me.

    I'll update another time on the matter. Don't get bogged down on individual runs at the moment, it's not looking bad :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    We're expecting a breakdown to thunderstorms here in the Med on Monday, which would signal a flip in fortunes, the Azores high building northwards over Ireland. Rule of thumb: when the Mediterranean gets bad, Ireland gets good.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,764 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Hopefully the charts build on this to something more summer like.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,764 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The current run might produce warmer spells but rain never far away either. The unsettled theme continues, some short lived dry spells and warmer next Weds to around Saturday but possibly in a Southerly moist humid airflow drawing up air from the tropics, might produce thunderstorms. The Jet never far away either and fairly powered up, could spin in a few small Lows or short waves leading to a few drenching's, a bit windy at times also next week. Just my opinion , in general I think getting milder but probably staying unsettled.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the models appear to be going for finally a warmer trend from the middle of next week. As always caution is advised as every attempt at bringing warmer weather to us so far this summer has resulted in either complete failure or a brief 24 hour rise to low level warmth across the east and south.

    The GEM in particular really pushing heat across us by next weekend, no doubt southern and eastern parts of the UK will be locked in to this but for us here in Ireland this is very much on a knife-edge and will probably get downgraded as we progress towards mid week with an Atlantic influence always ready to just spoil things for us. We shall see. The GEM has warmth and eventually heat building from next Thursday and lasting past next weekend as far as the run goes on Monday the 10th of August.

    GEM looks very tasty for next weekend but I have my doubts for us here in Ireland.

    GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

    If this verifed we would widely get into the mid 20's, possibly high 20's in a few places.

    GEMOPUK12_192_5.png

    ECM is similar to the GEM, just not as hot but has warmth brushing up against Ireland with the UK in a very warm or hot scene. It wouldn't take much adjustment for Ireland to be excluded and left with cool Atlantic air.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    UKMO goes as far as Wednesday and has warmth building across the UK with Ireland on the very edge of it with cool Atlantic muck just off our western coasts.
    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    GFS doesn't really get the warmth to Ireland with the heat concentrated over southern and eastern UK and Ireland in a moist Atlantic airflow with fairly wet conditions and relatively cool temperatures.

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    This looks very flimsy especially for us, we will be doing well if we get 2 dry sunny days and temperatures into the high teens to low twenties but we shall see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Models continuing to fiddle around the pattern change with the Scandi High showing its presence big time. The ECM seems to hold the Atlantic trough longer at bay compared to the GFS as the latter shows ridging over the Arctic which will inevitably make things a mess for us.

    Latest GFS continues to make more of the Scandi High with a mini upper low giving some rain showers for Ireland but looks very warm and the wind is south of east in nature. Due to the geography of the island, we will always be vulnerable to situations like this but I feel we will have a few more goes of getting this pattern down. When I'm writing this, the GFS has gone out as far as t198 and it looks mainly dry and warm but reverting more to a westerly. It's starting to show some Arctic ridging again which other models just don't seem to show. I also must note that the new GFS parallel recently released - hopefully it's better than last year's questionable "upgrade".

    Latest UKMO seems to inflate the Scandi High to extreme heights. I can't say I've seen a pattern like this in August since I started model watching..

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    The UKMO is very similar to what the GEM has been showing a lot of the time. Funny irony how the latest GEM backs off that idea completely and goes with a plume reverting to westerly!

    Our lord, our saviour, the Scandi High.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,480 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Syran,if u were a betting man how would u rate our chances of actually getting a few dry settled days?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Syran,if u were a betting man how would u rate our chances of actually getting a few dry settled days?

    I see no reason why to think we won't. The trend has been the Scandi High to become more influential with models, most notably the GFS, underestimating its strength.

    I know we have a huge pessimistic viewpoint about August given its modern reputation and the poor summer hasn't helped. I have that bias myself with the thoughts of this turning into another plume kind of warm period rather than an easterly which is required for Ireland to join in the warmth.

    However, I'd stick my neck out there and say it's on if I was a betting man with further developments on this pattern to become more easterly. Thankfully I'm not :o


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM 12z shows less influence from the Scandi High so as a consequence, Ireland is more changeable. I know this is an Irish forum but it's mind boggling and flat out ridiculous that the ECM showed a 37C figure over Cambridgeshire for 9th August and the 20C isotherm is overhead England up to 72 hours! Christ on a bike really. Surely the August and all-time record (the latter sent only in July last year!) would go with risk of 40C too. One of the hottest runs apparently ever seen so likely to be an outlier but my God. What other year but 2020 eh after everything else that has happened?

    GFS actually stayed relatively anticyclonic 'til near the end of its run which surprised me.

    No models in agreement today with the pattern, similar but all different at the same time.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208


    Sryan.
    The UK got its 37.8c from a plume that came from central Europe. How would a Scandi high give us good weather. Does it keep the lows away to our west.?
    Met Eireann say a high is developing from midweek. Is this your Scandi.?
    Like your analysis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    eon1208 wrote: »
    Sryan.
    The UK got its 37.8c from a plume that came from central Europe. How would a Scandi high give us good weather. Does it keep the lows away to our west.?
    Met Eireann say a high is developing from midweek. Is this your Scandi.?
    Like your analysis.

    Yes, the Scandi High can keep our lows at bay but not a guarantee and a lot of the time, Ireland still behaves as the "battleground" against westerlies from the Atlantic and easterlies from Europe which usually results in the UK's hottest plumes and snowiest days in winter.

    Easterly winds, which are driven by the placement of high pressure over Scandinavia, filter in clearer and warmer air from the continent compared to moisture layered, humid southwesterlies if the high pressure is centred over central Europe. This pattern is situational to the time of year with easterlies in summer being very warm to hot although cooler on eastern coasts due to onshore sea breezes. whilst easterlies in winter being cold or at times, exceptionally cold. Our 2018 drought and heatwave was driven by easterly winds and the Scandi High. When the Scandi High left by mid-July, so did our dry, sunny and warm spell with the warmest conditions pushed to the southeast of England as per usual.

    Latest forecast from Met Eireann is outlined below:
    Friday and next weekend: The outlook is uncertain, but early indications suggest that the weather will be unsettled overall, but quite warm.

    Which is different again from yesterday and they mention how it is uncertain which refers to all these models playing different things with this Scandi High. The suggestion of the weather being unsettled overall is courtesy of weaker heights over Ireland which would give thundery showers. This morning it does look like that has become a clearer theme. One plume for the UK but staying warm into the second week of August with the risk of thundery showers which may be scattered in nature rather than widespread. Although I must note associated with the plume is one front to the NW.

    I would advise against accumulated precipitation charts because they are nearly always over the top and especially in showery scenarios rather than frontal rain.

    The charts this morning remind me of mid-June somewhat, rather warm but often unstable. Will keep us on our toes with something to talk about than just nothing for weeks (July :rolleyes: ).

    If people expect an August 1995, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Keep those expectations in check please.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Ok just going to throw the cat among the pigeons but has anyone any predictions for winter 2020-21. Cold and dry or mild and wet or something in between?


  • Registered Users Posts: 619 ✭✭✭vistafinder


    bazlers wrote: »
    Ok just going to throw the cat among the pigeons but has anyone any predictions for winter 2020-21. Cold and dry or mild and wet or something in between?

    The usual. It will be so windy the pigeons will be grounded and so wet the cats wont even come out to catch them pigeons aaaand record mild.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Trying to hold on here whilst Boards does some "time warping" glitch that likely won't be fixed for a few days. Would you believe that models this afternoon so far have gone less for a plume and more of high pressure toppling in from the Atlantic during next weekend. ICON is the pick of the bunch with the high conjoining with the Scandi High but again all models showing different scenarios with the placement of the high pressure and the evolution of the pattern.

    The "plume" for the UK now looks to be Friday/Saturday at most with all the heat getting pushed away by the Sunday before high pressure topples over. It's unfortunate UKMO doesn't go further to see how it would compare to others.

    The high pressure toppling is better for Ireland than the plume scenario as it results in drier, warmer conditions ironically in spite of the generally cooler 850hPa temperatures and any sunshine will feel warm anyway because we are still in summer meteorologically speaking. Winds would be light in nature too and humidity would be lower so nights be more comfortable.

    I digress however and continue to watch this situation evolve..


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It appears we are definitely now on the road to a warming trend, nothing very warm or anything like what the UK got on Friday but definitely something more seasonal is on the horizon.

    it looks as if the Azores is going to make a more serious attempt at influencing our weather while linking up with a Scandinavian high. We may still get the odd interruption from Atlantic fronts brushing up against us but the Azores may easily rebound over us.

    From Tuesday we will start to see a lift up in the temperatures from mid teens to high teens with a warm south-westerly flow.

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    By Thursday we will be in a rather warm flow with +10 uppers across most of the country and temperatures in the high teens to low twenties.

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    By Saturday we will see the heat rising over the UK whilst cooling done over Ireland as a front pushes just past our north-west with maybe some rain for western coastal areas.

    Sunday will see the front well past our shores and the Azores high will be strengthening it's position over Ireland and linking up with that Scandinavian high.

    GFSOPEU18_168_1.png

    If this verifies it will produce a nice sunny day next Sunday however temperatures for us still won't be that great, maybe 16 to 22C and it will be much warmer across the UK, however we will be settling down with more in the way of sunshine.

    After next weekend it looks like the high will build and stengthen over us delivering several fairly settled, hopefully sunny and warm days. Monday to Wednedsay may see temperatures across the country between 18 and 24C, nothing that warm but pleasantly warm temperatures that are not excessive for anyone.

    By Thursday the 13th we may see an interruption from the north-west but this is now a long way out. Still quite warm by this stage and temperatures close to low twenties.

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    We finish with the Azores building again into the following week with temperatures in the low to possibly mid twenties.

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    Tonights ensemble runs show a very definite lift up in the temperatures for us from mid week and lasting possibly a week or more. These ensembles look quite wet but I think they will tend to dry out alot over the next few runs.

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    ECM is similar with warmth building from midweek followed by a brief cooler interruption on Saturday and then the Azores builds from next Sunday into the following week.

    ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

    GEM is cooler than the GFS or ECM but is of a similar theme.

    GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

    This certainly does not look like a heatwave for us but a fairly big shift to a dryer and warmer scene with a feeling of summer coming back even if it's just for a week i'll gladly take it considering the awful summer we've had so far. It does appear we are getting a break from the relentless cloud, mist, rain, wind and chilly temperatures of summer 2020.


  • Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208


    Great analysis Gonzo. Hope it plays along..


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,764 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Currently the ECM showing trending warmer with temperatures building low to mid 20's from the Weekend. Will be interesting to see if we hold on to the LP's meandering to our S off the Iberian Peninsula and Biscay. A lot of complex moving parts. This run looks ripe for thunderstorm potential I would reckon. Hp and and low pressure systems in close proximity, South to SW flow of Tropical moist air moving into the mix. Could be a mix of warm humid days with sunny spells and outbreaks of heavy rain at times and possible Thunderstorms. One thing for sure is that there is nothing straight forward about the forecasting into next week.Possibly on the warmer side yes but rain and possibly heavy at times ( maybe more locally ) I think going by the ECM anyway. A lot of difference between the main models atm. I think I will concentrate on the ECM and watch to see if it holds this pattern over the coming days.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    bazlers wrote: »
    Ok just going to throw the cat among the pigeons but has anyone any predictions for winter 2020-21. Cold and dry or mild and wet or something in between?

    It's a bit too early to tell. The past two winters have been excessively mild to the extent we really didn't get any winter for the past two years with barely any frost and many places have seen no lying snow even a dusting for 2 years or more. The polar vortex was on steroids last winter so we had no chance with the westerlies constantly keeping any cold locked up in the article circle and Iceland. I think this winter will hopefully be a bit more of an average Irish winter where we may see a bit more in the way of frost and fingers crossed some snow. Perhaps by mid October we shall start to get a much better signal to what is in store for this winter but i'm hopeful it's not going to be as dire as the past two winters, but at the same time i'm not expecting a December 2010 or March 2018. Having said that we are well overdue a cold first half of winter, we haven't seen one of those in 10 years. As for proper snow in January I can't even remember the last time we had something decent in January it's been far too long.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This mornings ECM is potentially very warm for Ireland, particularly western areas and favours a south-east flow from a hot continent, will be looking forward to see this evenings update to see does this persist.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,603 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Gonzo wrote: »
    This mornings ECM is potentially very warm for Ireland, particularly western areas and favours a south-east flow from a hot continent, will be looking forward to see this evenings update to see does this persist.

    Looks good 2nite too - could August save summer 2020??:eek::pac:;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Looks good 2nite too - could August save summer 2020??:eek::pac:;)

    I haven't looked at the latest ECM but a few days of warm sunshine will not save this summer, we would need almost the entire month of August to be influenced by the Azores high, very little rainfall and temperatures regularly in the low to mid twenties to save this summer. However it is beginning to look like this first half of August will be more summer like compared to June and especially July.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    and just after looking at that ECM run, after a brief cool interlude on Saturday things really warm up next week, but this is a whole week away. If this verified mid twenties to high twenties would be possible with +20 uppers very close to our south-east coast.

    ECMOPUK12_192_2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭odyboody


    Ah here lads, If summer is coming back we must be due to go into lockdown again.:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    odyboody wrote: »
    Ah here lads, If summer is coming back we must be due to go into lockdown again.:rolleyes:

    Funny you say that, I only heard a rumour today that not only are the pubs not reopening on the 10th but that they're planning on rolling back the restaurants and food pubs as well :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,638 ✭✭✭endainoz


    Funny you say that, I only heard a rumour today that not only are the pubs not reopening on the 10th but that they're planning on rolling back the restaurants and food pubs as well :o

    It honestly wouldn't surprise me if that's the case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22 kevyg


    Any update on next week's weather. I know its a tech forum but would appreciate any info.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Weather questions are always appreciated as this is the weather forum!

    Next week still has to be nailed down but currently it is looking warm or possibly very warm but possibly unstable. We are losing the settled signal for next week but the warmth is ramping up at the same time.

    From Sunday temperatures will start to rise but so will the instability, as our weather will be sourced from the continent. Temperatures next week generally between 17 and 23C or possibly 24C. Temperatures slightly higher than that may happen if we get decent sunny spells into the mix, so a 25 or 26C is well possible next week.

    Latest GFS is showing a very notable warming trend next week but also a big increase in precipitation, these could well end up being thunderstorms. With this sort of scenario it would be very difficult to judge where see's rain and where doesn't. As per usual with thunderstorms some areas could stay dry, warm and sunny while others will get deluges.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-08-05&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    The above ensemble shows the GFS operational (thick green line) is a bit of a cool outlier in regards to next week as it gets to +8C @850hpa, but most of the other members are getting to +14C to +16C uppers next week. We haven't seen uppers this warm all summer and these would suggest temperatures well into the twenties at some point. However at the same time the ensembles are showing very heavy rainfall spikes during the warmest section of weather next week and this is usually a very good indication of thundery potential rather than just a band of cold rain spreading in from the Atlantic.

    Of course this is FI and this potentially warm and thundery spells is still a whole week away so it is not nailed in just yet. It does appear that we are heading towards a warm first half of August with temperatures into the low twenties much of the time and some instability at times. I would take this as a huge improvement over July even if it is not that settled. Interesting weather watching over the next 10 days especially for fans of convective weather.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,160 ✭✭✭tanko


    Can anyone say how things are looking for next week.
    Am i right in saying it’s looking fairly dry??


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