Heavy Rainfall (Orange) Warning for Kerry, Cork, Tipp & Waterford - Tues 23 Feb

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 12:44pm #1

Thought it might be worth putting up a dedicated thread for the Windy and very wet spell coming up. The strongest winds will be from late Monday into early Tuesday morning accompanied by heavy rainfall. Rainfall, heavy at times will continue with blustery winds through Tuesday and rain fall set to continue in parts into Weds.

Windy overnight Mon into Tues, high end yellow warning but close enough to an Orange warning perhaps. Main issue though looks to be rainfall amounts, yellow warnings and possibly meeting Orange warning criteria in the SW, and S .Could get quite a large area getting over 50 mm in 24 hrs and rain set to continue into Weds . This on top of saturated ground and full lakes and rivers.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 12:57pm

What the other models are showing atm. ARPEGE and GFS looks fairly strong up along Atlantic counties early Tuesday morning.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 1:12pm

Big sea swell along Western coasts around midweek from the Storm out in the Atlantic.

Long trailing front being drawn up from the over the country from the S/ SW on a moist warm humid airflow. Looks like getting up to 14C or locally higher on Tuesday.

munsterlegend · 21-02-2021 1:17pm

And a warning from Met Eireann.

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Munster, Connacht

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday coupled with strong southerly winds. Some river and localised surface flooding possible. Rainfall totals of 30 to 50mm, higher in mountainous regions.

Valid: 00:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021 to 00:00 Wednesday 24/02/2021

Issued: 11:36 Sunday 21/02/2021

windows 7 home premium · 21-02-2021 1:48pm

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

JCX BXC · 21-02-2021 1:49pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

Howso?

windows 7 home premium · 21-02-2021 1:53pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Howso?

idk, it's just how things are usually.

giveitholly · 21-02-2021 1:56pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

Would it not be the North West that suffers the most from storms?

JCX BXC · 21-02-2021 2:24pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

idk, it's just how things are usually.

Okay, sure but is it just purely anecdotal?

The West Coast is battered much worse by storms, I've spent time in Waterford and they just don't hit the same as they hit here in West Clare.

windows 7 home premium · 21-02-2021 2:37pm

I know, I am just tired of storms and wind and rain at this stage and I just want some warm sunny weather which we had very little of last summer. Sick of constant wind and rain.

JCX BXC · 21-02-2021 3:07pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

I know, I am just tired of storms and wind and rain at this stage and I just want some warm sunny weather which we had very little of last summer. Sick of constant wind and rain.

Hopefully the high pressure on FI charts (meaning more then 120 hours away), will bring calm sunny weather. Won't be particularly warm though!

Oscar Bravo · 21-02-2021 3:44pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1363498687574458370?s=19

21-02-2021 4:12pm

windows 7 home premium wrote: »

It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

To be fair much of connaught might have double the rainfall of the southeast

Oscar Bravo · 21-02-2021 4:34pm

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Munster, Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo

Southerly winds will reach mean wind speeds of 50 to 65km/h, with gusts of 90 to 110km/h, possibly higher on exposed coasts. Where winds are onshore there is a risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 06:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

Issued: 14:46 Sunday 21/02/2021

Oneiric 3 · 21-02-2021 10:12pm

EPS (mean of all of the ECMWF runs) rainfall totals out to Wed midnight:

Munster / S. Leinster more favoured to bare the brunt.

Villain · 21-02-2021 10:41pm

I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

Cork2021 · 21-02-2021 10:49pm

Villain wrote: »

I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

Any thunderstorms going to be associated with this? It does look nasty to be honest, flooding in all
Of cork and Kerry is a real possibility. The likes of Bantry and Kenmare have been through the mill a lot later as has Cork City Centre

SouthWesterly · 21-02-2021 10:54pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Thought it might be worth putting up a dedicated thread for the Windy and very wet spell coming up. The strongest winds will be from late Monday into early Tuesday morning accompanied by heavy rainfall. Rainfall, heavy at times will continue with blustery winds through Tuesday and rain fall set to continue in parts into Weds.

Windy overnight Mon into Tues, high end yellow warning but close enough to an Orange warning perhaps. Main issue though looks to be rainfall amounts, yellow warnings and possibly meeting Orange warning criteria in the SW, and S .Could get quite a large area getting over 50 mm in 24 hrs and rain set to continue into Weds . This on top of saturated ground and full lakes and rivers.
]

Looking at that I'm glad I got over to Barrow today. Beautiful after hardly a breeze

munsterlegend · 21-02-2021 10:58pm

Villain wrote: »

I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

Cork2021 · 21-02-2021 11:06pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

Looking at the blackwater since Friday, obviously it broke its banks and spilled onto park road in Mallow, but it’s seriously fast moving and full now, you’ve so much water flowing into it, Kanturk rivers heaving, Funcheon heaving as well

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:14pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

Gerry Murphy after the news emphasized the strong winds and significant gusts and threats of flooding in Munster and said to keep an eye on warnings for updates.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:23pm

Latest ICON 18Z has eased off the winds a fair bit, UKMO not a great chart but showing stronger winds and high rainfall totals. There will be some water coming off the mountains, I agree places like Kenmare would need to be on high alert.

aisling86 · 21-02-2021 11:25pm

The water on the macroom side of the dam is seriously high this evening with this amount of rain to come!

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:29pm

Latest GFS quite strong around the coasts, not as big rainfall totals but would be looking towards the more Hi Res models from here.

Meteorite58 · 21-02-2021 11:56pm

ARPEGE 18Z still showing some strong winds around the coasts, especially the SW

Approx 24 hrs of rainfall below apart from a few mm extra perhaps.

windows 7 home premium · 22-02-2021 12:48am

I'm predicting a lot of serious flooding with this event, rivers are already very high and many fields waterlogged. A dry spell will be welcome, hopefully.

Villain · 22-02-2021 9:27am

Yep this is going to show the farce that is rainfall warnings when we don't have a flood warning system up and running fully yet. A yellow warning with up to 100mm coming and many parts of the Southwest going to flood!

This needs attention quickly!

adocholiday · 22-02-2021 9:32am

The windy app has downgraded the winds for the Wicklow coast since last night with the GFS, ECM and Arome models all down. Icon keeps them stronger. Rainfall totals looking like about 40mm for the Wicklow coast too again according to Windy's representation of the model data.

DOCARCH · 22-02-2021 11:11am

Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Cork, Kerry, Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Very heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday will likely cause further river flooding and surface water flooding. Rainfall totals of 50 to 80mm, higher in mountainous regions.

Valid: 19:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 21:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

Issued: 10:05 Monday 22/02/2021

Lip Out · 22-02-2021 11:20am

adocholiday wrote: »

The windy app has downgraded the winds for the Wicklow coast since last night with the GFS, ECM and Arome models all down. Icon keeps them stronger. Rainfall totals looking like about 40mm for the Wicklow coast too again according to Windy's representation of the model data.

Strange that Wicklow is not included in the yellow warning. Looks like it will be wet, especially so in the afternoon. Ground very saturated as it is.

Villain · 22-02-2021 11:31am

Tipperary added now too

Heavy Rainfall (Orange) Warning for Kerry, Cork, Tipp & Waterford - Tues 23 Feb

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