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Potential for severe thunderstorm/tornadic activity in East Wednesday AM (01/08)

  • 30-07-2012 6:44pm
    #1
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,871 ✭✭✭


    On the six news tonight Evelyn showed a storm coming in from the West, it was marked as a storm on screen, coming in Wednesday through Thursday, she said we were in for some windy episodes this week.

    Where did this storm come from, it was like a winter forecast. :(:(


«1

Comments

  • #2
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Wonderful:mad:

    I got a driving test on Wednesday.


  • #3
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,684 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Well it will be August! Straight from Spring to Autumn, miss Summer, maybe we''ll see that next year! :p


  • #4
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I seen an august start with a Force 9 so why not another.

    Must see the next UKMO Fax..the last one shows it off the coast

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax


  • #5
    Chicken1
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Chicken1


    This is a joke right :D. Surely the Summer cant get any worse its never ending this year. Never thought I would see a storm come in the Summer


  • #6
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Nope, a low pressure system will centre over the nw third of Ireland on weds and thurs it seems. However the packed isobars appear to be forecast along the w and nw quadrant of the lows centre meaning the winds associated with the packed isobars will be out on the Atlantic.

    Maybe Evelyn is trending towards the packed Isobars being over the country instead, hence a storm like.

    Maybe she just wants those barbies and deckchairs and trampolines secured properly _in case_ ....the sensible woman.

    At the time of writing there is nothing on Meteoalarm or on Estofex. I'll be watching for a change to the UKMO Fax from the midday run below.

    PPVJ89.png
    PPVL89.png


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  • #7
    Mr Cumulonimbus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Mr Cumulonimbus


    Yes. There to the west of us on the 18Z GFS run. Then, not surprisingly, it wants to hang around well into the BH weekend.:(.

    215227.png


  • #8
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I reckon it will just be a blustery oul yoke that stalls on an eastward track with a few rotating fronts. It was flagged up by Met É on Sunday as such.

    Dismal for the time of year but unremarkable save as 2-2.5 dirty days of unseasonable but sadly not unusual weather.


  • #9
    Big Tone
    Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Big Tone


    Hurricane Charlie payed us a visit in August 1986 so no surprises there about getting storms in Summer.

    I remember a storm in June a few years ago, the trees were heavy with leaves and so a lot of trees snapped in two from gale force winds, not to mention the ground covered with fallen leaves..in June!! :eek::eek:

    The only thing predictable about the weather in this country is that it's unpredictable.

    The longest Winter I ever spent was a Summer in Ireland!


  • #10
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    No big change today. Still looks blustery more than stormy with the strongest winds thurs and offshore Belmullet.


  • #11
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I suppose all concentration will be on this thread so heres my convective thoughts also... :)

    From early tomorrow we have a decent front making away into the SW heading NNE . LI in the range from 0 to -3 in many places with even -4 in some parts to.
    Cape figures will be around 500 j mark , system is passing through a bit too early for peak heating but still decent. :)

    What im excited about though is the DLS ( deep layer shear) and LLS ( significant tornado parameter ) are decent too! :D

    215263.png

    LLS...
    https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/207463/215266.png



    So not only could there be a nice few rumbles , a funnel cloud or even weak tornado is possible! :D...

    Heres my risk area for tomorrow in Estofex style :)

    215265.jpg

    Trying not to get too excited yet but ye, so far so good ! :)

    Thoughts people!!? :D


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  • #12
    sunbabe08
    Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    eh, i'm in a caravan in youghal. slightly getting scared now :(


  • #13
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    sunbabe08 wrote: »
    eh, i'm in a caravan in youghal. slightly getting scared now :(

    Ah no need to worry , just keep an eye on radar and you be grand :) ..

    and anchor down ;)


  • #14
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,318 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Looks potentially stormy in Dublin around noon to 2 pm (Wed 1st) as the front activates, we'll be keeping a close watch on developments. Otherwise, a lot of the stronger effects of the system will be out to sea and right now it is probably blowing around 40-50 knots at 20W but these winds tend to fan out into a slack gradient to the east of the low, at times tomorrow some gusts to 35 knots might reach outer west coast but the main effect of the system will be to activate the cold front which is currently moving into the west. Some mdoerate bursts of showery rain could develop overnight around Cork, Limerick and later Waterford, but it's after 0900h around Carlow-Wexford that the system is likely to intensify somewhat and I think the greatest potential for a heavy or even severe storm would be in Kildare, Dublin and Meath from 1100 to 1500h, after which the system will be offshore to the east, remnants could reach east Ulster in the afternoon. Donegal and Mayo are probably in a very slight risk zone for a blustery thundershower in phase with the eastern activity.

    Thursday might also prove to be interesting with unstable moist air subjected to some daytime heating and perhaps locally intense showers or thunderstorms in counties around Longford, Offaly, Laois, Kildare and Westmeath.


  • #15
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    from Tony Gilbert from UKWW at 1730
    http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?%2Ftopic%2F92826-convective-outlook-weds-1st-aug-12%2Fpage__pid__815252#entry815252

    Slight Risk of Thunderstorms UK & Ireland 06Z-20Z Weds 1st Aug 2012

    Confidence Level; Medium

    Stationary surface low 980mb west of Ireland is sustained (neither filling or deepening). Weak upper troughing nudges east
    though with limited influence within this outlook. Moist surface plume is advected north from Biscay ahead of the cold
    front. Moderate upper jet crosses eastern sector of Ireland early in period then along to Wales/ NE UK regions later in the day.
    Strongest lift along the cold front is generated under a sharply diffluent front left exit region. This looks to translate
    a path for stronger dynamic lift from SE Ireland through to central Wales and then on to NE UK.
    Some overlay of instability to vertical shear looks likely. Though all in all most of this overlay looks to see no more
    than 40kts at 500mb so only border line to any isolated storm cell development. UKMO fax chart indicates a small surface
    wave over central east Ireland very early in the day where there will likely be some potential for tornado development.
    Low level shear for the cold fronts progress across northern UK looks interesting with 10kt southerly surface vector
    overrun by 32kts SW vector at 925 mb. So in short a good condition for low level wind fields to exist.
    Max convective gusts are calculated at around 35kts. Some small hail possible though freezing level looks rather elevated

    ATM.
    All in all looks like the highest risk for a tornado event will be Ireland in association with the surface wave 06Z-09Z
    and the most acute period for lift in line with the upper divergent jet    .Some monitoring for region just north of Humber may
    become a risk zone later in period.

    post-24170-0-06318600-1343755537_thumb.jpg

    I like his risk area map ... looks familiar... ;)


  • #16
    sirpsycho
    Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭sirpsycho


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    from Tony Gilbert from UKWW at 1730
    http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?%2Ftopic%2F92826-convective-outlook-weds-1st-aug-12%2Fpage__pid__815252#entry815252
    I like his risk area map ... looks familiar... ;)

    Surprised it hasn't flashed up on our tv screens yet :eek: :D


  • #17
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    sirpsycho wrote: »
    Surprised it hasn't flashed up on our tv screens yet :eek: :D

    Evelyn had no hint of even a thunderstorm in her forecast :rolleyes: ...

    Next runs out shortly ! :) ... Fingers crossed! :)


    You gonna head out and chase?:cool:


  • #18
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,054 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A Met Eireann update @ 2221,no mention of thunder etc etc -On Wednesday, the showery rain will leave the east in the morning, but another band of rain will move in from the west and cross the country during the morning and early afternoon, followed by brighter weather with some sunshine and just isolated showers for the rest of the day. Highest temperatures of 17 to 21 degrees Celsius, warmest in the east, with fresh southerly winds veering westerly and easing somewhat.


  • #19
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    A Met Eireann update @ 2221,no mention of thunder etc etc -On Wednesday, the showery rain will leave the east in the morning, but another band of rain will move in from the west and cross the country during the morning and early afternoon, followed by brighter weather with some sunshine and just isolated showers for the rest of the day. Highest temperatures of 17 to 21 degrees Celsius, warmest in the east, with fresh southerly winds veering westerly and easing somewhat.

    Ye thats probably Evelyn's forecast to be she head home. AH sure at least the "isolated showers" mentioned... its these that will be our... SUPERCELLS! ;)


  • #20
    sirpsycho
    Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭sirpsycho


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Evelyn had no hint of even a thunderstorm in her forecast :rolleyes: ...

    Next runs out shortly ! :) ... Fingers crossed! :)


    You gonna head out and chase?:cool:

    Runs are up now...

    Dont look great, highest LI and cape are between 9-12pm, too early to pick up any heat?

    Work tomorrow so no chasing!


  • #21
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Norweigen HIRLAM is predicting a few heavy showers in the eastern half of the country in the morning. All over by 12pm though with nothing really showing up for the afternoon

    120801093112.gif


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  • #22
    ger vallely
    Registered Users Posts: 766 ✭✭✭ger vallely


    I've no scientific facts for ye but here in north Galway it is STORMY. A right old wind and rain belting off the window.But the wind is the worst bit.Think I'll be picking up the giant sunflowers from the garden in the morning.


  • #23
    sirpsycho
    Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭sirpsycho


    ps. A handy map below for checking out the pressures (mouse-over the white dots).

    HUGE thunderstorm rolling off the coast of Africa, size of Ireland almost!

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/tropical/gfs.php?AOI=AON


  • #24
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    BY Nick F of Net Weather.

    Valid: 01/08/2012 06:00 - 02/08/2012 06:00
    Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

    Synopsis
    A deepening low to the NW of Ireland on Wednesday will drive a deeply cyclonic SW'erly flow across the UK, an associated cold front will advance eastwards into western areas during the morning, lying Ayr-Liverpool-Weymouth by 12z, with occluded front moving in behind to the W.

    ... IRELAND, WALES, SW ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA, N ENGLAND & S SCOTLAND

    Confluent upper trough and attendant cold front will advance eastwards across the UK during Weds, which will likely be the focus for convection - particularly Ireland in the morning then across Nern, central and western UK into the afternoon.

    Ahead of trough/cold front will be a fairly warm/moist Tm SWerly flow which will become unstable as lapse rates steepen and forcing deepens with approach of upper trough. A few thunderstorms are possible should cloud breaks allow sufficient surface heating to combine with the forced ascent of approaching trough and C front. Modestly strong upper winds on forward side of trough (40 knts at 500mb) and 20-30 knts of DL shear suggests convection may organise into multicell clusters/line segments ... bringing a risk of strong wind gusts, hail and torrential rain with risk of flooding with any storms.

    15-20 knts of LL shear and low LCLs near the cold front suggests also that an isolated brief/weak tornado can't be ruled out across Ireland in the morning, then Wales and the West Country by the afternoon as the CF continues east. However, generally saturated profiles on forecast skew-ts suggest storm coverage and growth maybe too hindered for a categorical risk of severe weather to be forecast for now.

    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=137671

    Im happy with that :)


  • #25
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,054 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Its fast approaching five to midnight,so lets head over to Met Eireann on RTE Radio1 for the general and Sea Area Weather Forecast....


  • #26
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Ship BATEU01 has reported winds of up to 51 knots about 200-300 miles out to our northwest during the night but I think that's a little on the high side as Buoy 64045 just to the east has only recorded up to 29 knots. The ship has been steaming westwards at up to 20 knots so this may introduce large errors on the upper end of the windscale.

    http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=015W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2012&mes=08&day=01hora=06&vwi=Wi


  • #27
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A potential storm is now developing south of Wicklow,

    http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp


  • #28
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    A potential storm is now developing south of Wicklow,

    http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

    Some quite low dark clouds passing over here now , looking suspicious ... * stares*


  • #29
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Some quite low dark clouds passing over here now , looking suspicious ... * stares*

    845 radar doesn't look promising.

    Looks like a miss!


  • #30
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    typical , weakens on route to me and strengthens going away from me....*shakes fist at sky * ha


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  • #31
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Windy and sunny in Naas now.

    I hope it keeps up my Driving test is in a few hours.


This discussion has been closed.
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