€25k invested in prize bonds

I got my new bonds today from the 26 Feb draw, AVQ 072142. Based on some rough calculations I am going to guess the number of €50 prizes in the March draws will be 4,440 up from 4,388 in February. We have no history to go on, with January being 5,724. I could be miles out.

Edit: I figure the max it could be based on sales is 4475. Encashments are unknowable, but I reduced that by 35 based on encashments in Feb 2018 and 2019.

Wins on 5th March 2021: €0
Last win: 18th December 2020: €50
Weeks since last win: 11
€134k invested in prize bonds since July 2017
Win ratio: 24 wins in 192 weeks (13%)
2017 (Jul-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2018 (Jan-Dec): 4 x €50 = €200
2019 (Jan-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2020 (Jan-Dec): 10 x €50 = €500
2021 (Jan-date): 0 x €50 = €0

€50 for me today.
2021 2x50.

lizardking123 wrote: »

Can anyone tell me, how many individual prize bonds are currently active? (Even approx) i have 22 million in my head but could be way off

In the region of 650 million

Hibernicis wrote: »

In the region of 650 million

Thanks....and bang goes my odds of winning big 😂

And again!

tuisginideach wrote: »

Only one €50 envelope to dispose of this week - honestly, I have no clue what's going on!


Interestingly in the months of Jan/Feb and first week Mar, these were my winnings:
2015: 1 x €50
2016: 1 x €50
2017: 2 x €50
2018:3 x €50
2019:1 x €50
2020:1 x €50
2021 9 x €50

No. of prizebonds hasn't changed much - some cashed in, some new ones bought, some swapped for new ones but very little difference overall.

It's certainly a record - on my history of PB wins!

Actually, the pattern is amazing - 8 X €50 over 6 consecutive weeks on this 'glitch'; July 2017 - 6 X €50 over 3 consecutive weeks (1, 3, 2); May 2016 - 5 X €50 over 4 consecutive weeks.

tuisginideach wrote: »

And again!

That’s an amazing run. Congratulations.

I have decided to do a weekly post in March for the number of wins by some bonds under three months old, and put the results together after week 4. It won't be all the same bonds each week

Week 1. 30 million bonds AUO to AVR inclusive. Total wins 173, average per million 5.767. Highest AVD, AVO and AVQ 9 each. Lowest AUR 1. All prizes €50.

173 is 4.363% of the 3,965 prizes awarded. Projected wins for one million bonds (€6.25 million) for 52 draws. 5.767 x 52 = 299.884 prizes x €50 = €14,944.20. Divided by 62.5 gives expected return on €100K of €239.91, nearest €250.

Okay, Using my usual method to calculate the fund value at the end of each month and using dxhounds and abffs method of calculating the gross sales by using the newest bond number in the draws I came up with this

Date|Fund Value|Gross Growth
01/12/2020|4,062,640,000
01/01/2021|4,032,480,000|49,202,852
01/02/2021|4,453,942,857|81,542,362
01/03/2021|4,124,114,285|81,437,131


Anyone any ideas ???

And a special thanks Hibernicis for showing us how to do tables

tuisginideach wrote: »

It's certainly a record - on my history of PB wins!

Actually, the pattern is amazing - 8 X €50 over 6 consecutive weeks on this 'glitch'; July 2017 - 6 X €50 over 3 consecutive weeks (1, 3, 2); May 2016 - 5 X €50 over 4 consecutive weeks.

I would be interested in knowing how close together, or how far apart your winning numbers are. Would there be a subsection of numbers representing under €25K which won €100 or €150?

Andrew Flexing wrote: »

New record @Hibernicis?

Ive had a 100k house deposit win nothing since last September!

Thargor wrote: »

Ive had a 100k house deposit win nothing since last September!

yeah,i've 66k-nothing since july,no "luck" i guess.

John arse wrote: »

so a word of caution if you're thinking of banging in 50 or a 100k,it isn't a bed of roses in prize bond land,huge dry spells.i'd be massively frustrated if i wasn't used to it!

The issue with law of averages it aint an exact sciene. You could have a long dry spell then win twice in two week.

I have €12,500 since Jan 20 and another batch of €12,500 from July 20 and no wins yet but i am sure it is coming any day now

Had my first win in 2 months last Friday, so I've updated my table. I've also edited my data to allow for the fact that there are only 999,999 bonds per letter combination, not 1,000,000. Quite a lot of new bonds sold since the beginning of the year.

Date|New Bonds|Per Day
05/05/2017
19/05/2017 | 103,539,691 | 7,395,692
02/06/2017 | 103,713,608 | 7,408,115
21/07/2017 | 312,307,380 | 6,373,620
01/09/2017 | 260,208,161 | 6,195,432
03/11/2017 | 363,631,083 | 5,771,922
08/12/2017 | 208,144,809 | 5,946,995
22/12/2017 | 103,826,840 | 7,416,203
12/01/2018 | 78,472,968 | 3,736,808
27/04/2018 | 676,274,174 | 6,440,706
28/09/2018 | 1,065,663,998 | 6,919,896
02/11/2018 | 207,647,554 | 5,932,787
01/02/2019 | 598,650,240 | 6,578,574
15/02/2019 | 103,331,219 | 7,380,801
08/03/2019 | 130,250,694 | 6,202,414
29/03/2019 | 129,777,682 | 6,179,890
05/04/2019 | 51,885,267 | 7,412,181
03/05/2019 | 156,394,156 | 5,585,506
31/05/2019 | 155,511,576 | 5,553,985
07/06/2019 | 26,072,415 | 3,724,631
14/06/2019 | 26,481,363 | 3,783,052
12/07/2019 | 155,662,741 | 5,559,384
03/01/2020 | 1,066,460,082 | 6,094,058
03/04/2020 | 806,211,665 | 8,859,469
24/04/2020 | 155,885,610 | 7,423,124
01/05/2020 | 52,134,834 | 7,447,833
08/05/2020 | 51,263,194 | 7,323,313
10/07/2020 | 520,030,794 | 8,254,457
24/07/2020 | 78,611,529 | 5,615,109
20/11/2020 | 1,014,012,705 | 8,521,115
23/12/2020 | 337,340,758 | 10,222,447
08/01/2021 | 78,432,523 | 4,902,033
05/03/2021 | 623,964,305 | 11,142,220