Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 6 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1.5 to 2.5 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be 75% of normal to near normal values.
-- Sunshine will be close to the January average of 1.5 to 2 hours a day, to about 25% above average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be very windy at times with a band of squally rain showers moving across the country, arriving soon on the east coast. Temperatures will peak around 10-12 C in the morning followed by somewhat colder temperatures, and strong westerly winds, with clearing for a time, then variable cloud and more showers possible by later afternoon again. South to southwest winds with gusts to 110 km/hr this morning, then westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr easing gradually through the afternoon, as temperatures fall off to about 7 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy and temperatures will likely begin to rise after a slight fall this evening, to reach 8 to 10 C later in the night. Some light rain at times in the north but essentially dry further south.

TUESDAY will become windy again with very mild temperatures in a strong southwest flow reaching 80 to 110 km/hr by later in the day. Some rain at times, with highs around 12 to 15 C. Once again turning a bit colder by afternoon especially in Connacht (with partial clearing and temperatures falling to 6 C).

WEDNESDAY will be less windy, partly cloudy at first with morning lows 2 to 5 C, then overcast and still rather mild, highs 10 to 12 C, except near 7 C in parts of Ulster, with rain resuming by afternoon in west Munster and becoming heavier at times. About 10 to 20 mm rainfalls can be expected by Thursday morning.

THURSDAY may bring some intervals of strong southwest winds along the south coast in the early morning hours as rain spreads through the southern half of the country. There is some uncertainty on the track of this disturbance, if it were to stay further south then strong winds would not reach the south coast and rain would only spread a shorter distance inland. The north in any case will likely see just intervals of light rain with a weaker frontal system, then clearing. All of these features will be followed by a windshift to northwesterly by mid-day, and partial clearing. Highs near 10 C in the south, 5 to 8 C further north.

FRIDAY will be relatively mild with southwest breezes and some rain at times, highs 8 to 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... It will stay mild for several more days into next weekend (11th-12th) with highs near 12 C. Some guidance is indicating a very stormy pattern to follow, at the very least it will get quite windy and there will be frequent rain. I mentioned yesterday that any details on timing or intensity of these mid-month storms may take a few days to gain much clarity but the later guidance is starting to converge on strong south to southwest winds by about Monday 13th or Tuesday 14th.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with snow, about 10 cms has fallen since mid-day, with highs of about -3 deg C. The pattern for most of North America in the next week or two will be just a bit milder than normal in many areas with the Pacific rather active and the Gulf of Mexico not providing much energy although adding a few frontal waves in the southeast from time to time. The net result will be a stormy outcome for the far eastern parts of Canada and the western Atlantic with very intense storms expected south of Greenland.

This looks to me like a pattern that could hold for a time then collapse into a blocking episode allowing a much colder period to develop, whether it's before or after the end of January it may lead to a colder February.

Wednesday, 8 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 January 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average slightly below normal, about 75% will be typical.
-- Sunshine may average near normal or slightly above further north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a welcome respite from the strong winds, and some brighter intervals especially further north where the sun may be in and out of clouds, more overcast further south as fronts settle to await arrival this evening of a low from the southwest. Continued rather mild although not quite like yesterday with highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will bring intervals of rain that could be somewhat sleety on higher terrain in north-central counties before dawn. Staying clear and partly cloudy in some parts of Ulster. Lows 3-5 C north, 5-8 C south.

THURSDAY will start out with patchy light rain in the south, about 10 mm is the potential for this rather weak system, and it may stay dry in some parts of Ulster and north Connacht. The risk of strong winds has decreased for the south coast, but it will be breezy after the low passes for a while with northwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr in parts of Munster and coastal Connacht. Some clearing will follow and it will turn quite cold for part of the night to follow. Daytime highs 6 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will return to the windy and mild theme with occasional rain and southwest winds 60 to 100 km/hr, morning lows 4 to 7 C (after earlier slight frosts before midnight) and daytime highs 10 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will start out mild but a cold front passing around mid-day will drop temperatures back several degrees, from near 10 C in the morning to 5-7 C later on. Some showers will come and go, perhaps wintry by late afternoon on higher terrain in the northwest.

SUNDAY will be breezy and quite cold with passing mixed wintry showers, probably mostly rain or hail but some sleet or snow could fall on hills. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY is looking quite windy and there is some threat of sleet or snow in some northern counties and on higher terrain further south, although likely to be mostly rain lower down. Highs only about 5 to 8 C.

The pattern after this unsettled period appears quite volatile with the risk of strong winds at some point later next week, but details are quite out of focus with various models having different timings or storm tracks. There appears to be some consensus on stormy weather by mid-week and more for the south coast than other parts of the country.

My local weather on Tuesday started out with more snow, about 15 cm had fallen by mid-morning when it became milder and foggy with just a bit of drizzle and temperatures rising to 4 C. The snow is slumping rather than melting but there's some slush and ponding water as a result of the warmup. We are going into the deep freeze here next week after a weekend snowfall of 10-20 cm, possibly as cold as -25 or -30 C. In Alberta it could be as cold as -40 or even -45 C next week.

Friday, 10 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 January 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average slightly above normal values (100 to 125 per cent).
-- Sunshine will average slightly above normal values (100 to 125 per cent).

FORECASTS

TODAY will gradually turn rather windy and milder by afternoon and evening, with occasional rain, south to southwest winds increasing to reach 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be windy and temperatures will remain near 10 C, with occasional rain (about 5-10 mm amounts in total are expected).

SATURDAY will start out mild with further rain in the morning, then a cold front will move across the country with potential for a squall line to develop, and colder temperatures by afternoon. Temperatures will drop from 10 to about 5 C, and there could be 10-15 mm rainfalls in some eastern counties. Winds will become westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be a bright but rather cold day with passing mixed wintry showers on some higher terrain, mostly rain or hail showers at lower elevations. Lows near 2 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY will be windy with rain, heavy at times, and some potential for hill snow or sleet in parts of Connacht and Ulster. Despite a southerly wind direction, it may not feel very mild at 7 or 8 C, lower temperatures possible in parts of the north. Winds will be gusty and in the range of 60 to 100 km/hr.

TUESDAY another disturbance will approach and could bring even stronger winds at times, southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, with more rain or showers. Highs will be 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be rather windy with passing showers and highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY is a day to watch as several models show potential for an intense storm to develop with potential for damaging southwest to west winds. There is still time for this to change to a better outcome. Temperatures would be around 8 C.

The outlook would then be for somewhat improved weather more dominated by higher pressure, staying rather mild for January.

My local weather on Thursday was clear and cold at first with morning temperatures near -12 C, then overcast but still quite cold in the afternoon (-5 C). This evening we had a good view of a rising full moon (the actual time for that will be 7:22 p.m. today). Although there is a slight partial eclipse it's unlikely that the Moon will be visible at eclipse time for many due to cloud (occurs before the moon rises in any part of North America).

Sunday, 12 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for 12 to 18 January, 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values (similar amounts in most regions which means more above the normal values in the south and east).
-- Sunshine will average near normal amounts.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies and a few passing showers, one or two of which could be wintry over higher parts of the north. Moderate southwest breezes will begin to strengthen by evening. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become rather windy with occasional rain, winds southerly 40 to 70 km/hr (increasing to 60-90 km/hr near west coast by morning). Lows about 1 to 3 C may occur before midnight as temperatures may rise gradually during the later part of the overnight period.

MONDAY -- Storm "Brendan" will bring very strong winds and a fast-moving frontal system with some squally rain showers, possibly a brief thunderstorm, hitting the west coast around mid-day to early afternoon and moving across the country during the afternoon. Southerly gale force winds will develop ahead of this front and southwest winds of 70 to 120 km/hr are likely for a time during and after its passage. An interval of stronger storm force winds is likely in parts of the west and north towards late afternoon and early evening but these are not likely to extend into most other regions. High seas, battering waves and the risk of coastal inundations at high tides will be results of this powerful storm around the west coast, parts of the south coast, and to some extent even on the east coast by afternoon. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm are expected with potential for locally heavy amounts and spot flooding. High temperatures of about 8 to 10 C will occur later in the day, but at higher elevations in the north it may be quite a raw and cold day with some potential for sleety showers in the earlier portion of the event.

TUESDAY ... After the storm dies out during the early morning hours, the day may begin on a brighter and calmer note but then clouds will increase as a trailing secondary low approaches the south coast and moves through parts of the southeast by late afternoon. A mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow bands by elevation can be expected, details will depend on the exact track of the low, and Wexford could see a brief interval of strong southwest winds if the centre moves inland. If it remains off to the south slightly, those winds would hit only south Wales instead (either way south Wales will be hit eventually with the low tracking towards north Wales by evening). Morning lows of about 2 to 5 C will be followed by afternoon highs of 6 to 8 C but temperatures could fall back to 2 or 3 C in a brief burst of northeast winds during the afternoon. Any significant snowfall is likely to be at rather high elevations in the Wicklow mountains.

WEDNESDAY will be a breezy and somewhat milder day again with intervals of rain becoming heavier towards evening, lows near 2 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will have intervals of heavy rain, moderate to strong winds, and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers and moderate westerly winds, highs near 7 C.

The further outlook calls for a drier interval to develop, somewhat colder than most of this month has been for a day or two, then possibly followed by mild and dry conditions later. I would expect one more round of stormy weather to return before the end of January though.

My local weather on Saturday featured some additional snow bringing our ground cover to about 45 cms. That colder air is beginning to filter in here ahead of a Sunday snowfall event that will open up the full arctic outbreak by Monday, with temperatures likely to fall below -20 C here by Tuesday morning.

Eastern regions of North America are quite mild at present. Storm Brendan is developing east of Newfoundland and its trailing wave for Tuesday is currently a low over Lake Ontario moving due east, bringing heavy rainfalls to the Toronto region and temperatures into the 12-17 C range along the east coast. Those will be replaced by much colder readings once that low heads into the Atlantic late Sunday night. Heavy snow is likely to develop in Vermont and southern Quebec as a result. Freezing rain extends from north of Toronto east into upstate New York and will briefly hit parts of southern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine on Sunday.

Tuesday, 14 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

FORECAST


TODAY will be mostly cloudy and breezy, rather cold with passing showers that will contain some hail near sea level and sleet or wet snow on higher terrain especially in parts of the north. By afternoon, rain or sleet will move into the south and central counties, then spreading to the east by early evening. This mixed wintry precipitation may turn to snow especially on hills in the southeast, before ending by late evening. Highs today will be 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and there may be further wintry showers. However, it will trend milder again by the early morning hours. Lows 1 to 3 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, still some risk of wintry precipitation on higher terrain, highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will bring intervals of rain, strong southerly winds, and milder temperatures briefly reaching about 10 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy, partly cloudy and colder with highs 7 to 9 C.

The trends after that will be more settled for a few days, as higher pressure builds up. At first it may be rather cold especially overnight with slight frosts returning. By about Monday milder southwest winds will push in, with highs back up to 10 or 11 C. The following week looks like being rather variable with some colder days, some back into the mild westerly flow, but generally dry and more settled than we've had most of this past month.

My local weather turned very cold, with a bit more light snow at times, temperatures falling steadily to reach -15 C at this hour.

(somewhat abbreviated message due to intermittent contact with Boards this morning)

Thursday, 16 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 January 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg below normal in the southeast, to near normal on the west coast.
-- Rainfall will average 25% of normal values; most of that will occur tomorrow.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, or around 3 hours a day on average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather windy, southerly gales near the south coast 70-110 km/hr, and 50-80 km/hr elsewhere, with showery intervals of rain (5-15 mm expected) and highs near 10 C. This disturbance will weaken later in the day, and the winds will ease to southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, as skies will become partly cloudy with a few residual showers mainly over western counties.

TONIGHT will remain partly cloudy with passing showers, one or two could become wintry especially over higher terrain in west and north, lows -1 to 3 C.

FRIDAY will feature some morning frost in a few places, with a gradual clearing trend. The day will become partly cloudy and rather cold. There could continue to be a few isolated wintry showers mainly over higher parts of Connacht and west Ulster by afternoon. Moderate west to northwest winds 30 to 50 km/hr and highs 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will be dry but rather cold, with partly cloudy skies and some longer sunny intervals by afternoon. Light winds generally. Morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be a calm and rather cold day in most places, but it could feel milder near the west coast. Morning lows will be around -3 C with sharp frosts. Afternoon readings will vary from 4 to 8 C except near 10 C on some parts of the south and west coasts.

MONDAY will probably be milder for most, after another frosty start in parts of the inland southeast. With a slight westerly gradient returning, temperatures may manage to get back to around 10 or 11 C in most places, 8 or 9 C in a few cooler spots in the east.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for this mild west to northwest flow around nearby high pressure to continue, so that for most places it should remain a little milder than average although with some rather cold readings at night in the south and east where skies may remain clear whereas further north it will likely be overcast most of the time. This rather quiet weather pattern will get a bit more unsettled late in the week as a weak frontal trough approaches from the northwest with occasional light rain added to the mix.

My local weather remained very cold with a few glimpses of the sun and a few intervals of light snow. We have a more significant snowfall overnight then back to clearing skies later Thursday. The high was about -12 C. Meanwhile colder air is finally reaching eastern regions after a very mild first half of January, and a major snowstorm is going to develop off the east coast of Canada hitting Newfoundland on Friday. Another storm will follow but will bring mixtures of sleet and snow to some parts of New England and eastern Canada on the weekend.

Saturday, 18 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 January, 2020

-- Temperatures will be about 3 deg below normal in some parts of the inland southeast, closer to 2 deg below normal in most other places but trending towards just slightly below average in coastal Connacht and Ulster.
-- Rainfall will be near zero for most and just 10% of an average weekly amount in a few parts of the north.
-- Sunshine will be 50% above normal, at least, depending on how much fog develops in various locations.

This might be an interesting day to climb higher summits in the southwest, as the Valentia upper air sounding shows that temperatures are quite mild above a strong inversion, so you would probably reach some 7-10 C temperatures part way up.

TODAY will see the widespread frost slowly dissipating, and any fog patches should give way to wintry sunshine by late morning, and temperatures will peak at 3 to 7 C in most places, coldest inland southeast. It could reach 10 C in a few spots near the west coast if a slight breeze mixes down that milder air aloft.

TONIGHT will return to clear and calm, frosty conditions with lows -4 to -1 C. Some dense fog patches are likely in the inland south and east.

SUNDAY will see the frost and fog rather slow to clear away and there could be frost in shady spots all day in some places. Wintry sunshine will eventually dominate by mid-day and afternoon but one or two places could stay overcast if the fog banks are persistent. Highs will therefore display quite a range, from perhaps 2 or 3 C in a few spots, to 9 or 10 C in coastal Connacht and Ulster.

MONDAY will be similar although the strength of the colder nocturnal portion of this set-up will begin to fade. Morning lows will be -4 to +1 C with some fog again, but there will be more daytime cloud and a bit of a breeze will begin to develop (westerly across northern counties), more places will see a rise in temperatures to the 7-9 C range.

By TUESDAY and for most of the mid-week period, it should be generally milder as more cloud spreads in, keeping it above freezing for most at night, and 7 to 10 C daytimes.

Later in the week, a stronger westerly flow will return the very mild air and it could be back up around 11 or 12 C with some light rain or drizzle approaching northern coasts. Some guidance breaks down the blocking high pressure rather quickly by next weekend (25th-26th) and it could become moderately or even very windy at some point towards that weekend or the following Monday-Tuesday, with rain returning.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few patches of blue sky that the Sun never seemed to find, and it was still rather cold at about -8 C. Some snow is spreading in for our Saturday. A stronger storm in the Midwest U.S. is spreading snow across the Great Lakes and inland northeast, with sleet-freezing rain mixtures closer to the large cities on the east coast, trending to all rain around Virginia. This messy storm will move further east and will be followed by some of the coldest air this winter for eastern North America (which isn't saying much as they have had it quite mild since setting record lows in mid-November).

Monday, 20 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Jan 2020 ...

-- Temperatures will be close to normal values except for a few slightly colder locations in the inland south.
-- Rainfall will reach about half of normal values but most of that will only arrive late in the interval.
-- Sunshine will be near normal or a little below in parts of the west and north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with hazy sunshine at times in parts of the south. A few intervals of drizzle may occur in the north. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy, but with a few clear breaks in the south, temperatures there could fall to 2 or 3 C, otherwise lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and spotty drizzle near the northwest coasts. Highs 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY could see a return to some frost in the south as skies may clear there, lows -2 to +2 C. Otherwise the morning lows will be above freezing, and the day will be mostly cloudy with highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will see only slight changes with some increase in southwest winds by late afternoon, lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will become breezy or even windy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and mild with rain at times, highs 10 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will be windy with partly cloudy skies and passing showers, with a gradual fall in temperatures to around 5 degrees.

MONDAY will be windy with a morning high of about 10 C followed by colder air for a day or two. Milder weather will probably return towards the end of the week (and month).

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light snow, and milder at about -1 C.

Wednesday, 22 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values (which are roughly 8 for a max, 2 for the min).
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of a normal amount for late January (which is about 25 mm).
-- Sunshine may manage to reach or even exceed normal values (which are 2-2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild with some mist or fog in a few places. Highs 9 to 11 C. Light winds will continue in most areas.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few patches of mist or light drizzly rain, lows near 4 C (closer to 7 C near west coast).

THURSDAY will become a little more breezy but otherwise unchanged, cloudy, mild with a bit of light rain or drizzle in some parts of the north. Highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy to windy at times, with a small amount of rain in most places (2-5 mm) and highs of 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will also be breezy to windy, starting out mild but turning slightly cooler by afternoon, highs near 10 C. Showers will clear and there may be some sunshine at times by afternoon in brisk westerly winds.

SUNDAY will be windy with passing showers and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY looks very windy (southwest 80 to 110 km/hr at least) and wet with highs near 11 C.

The outlook for the following week is for a fast-moving sequence of colder intervals and mild sectors of strong lows, which will bring some brief intervals of heavy rain and intense winds. The details are bound to change before the actual time, but as of now, Wednesday 29th and Friday 31st are timed for the passage of these fast moving and strong weather systems. The pattern beyond that looks about the same as the next few days, cloudy and mild with moderate winds.

Will there be any actual winter weather (aside from our one-day freeze last Sunday?) ... I don't hold out a lot of hope but if it's going to happen at all, then very late February or March would probably be the time for any actual winter especially snowfall on any appreciable scale. Chances seem a bit less than 50-50 that we would see anything like that at all, but first the Atlantic would need to drop its dominant role and if we get another strong blocking high, that would need to be further northeast than this past one which was basically just creating a bit of locally grown cold air rather than bringing it in across open water from a colder source region.

My local weather deserves a four letter word of some kind, so I will go with snow, rain and mist, all three were happening at roughly the same time and it was about 2 deg C. Not much melting or slush at my home elevation but on a trip down into the nearby Columbia valley (closer to 350 m asl) it was very slushy with a nearly similar snow depth down there beginning to melt. Travel agents are doing a brisk business.

Friday, 24 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, mild at first, rather cold from Sunday to Tuesday, then milder again.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average slightly above normal by 10 to 30 per cent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few brighter intervals developing, mild with highs 9 to 12 C. There could be some patchy drizzle mainly over northern counties. Somewhat breezier than recent days, with south to southwest winds developing (40 to 60 km/hr in some western counties).

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with light rain over parts of the north, breezy, and mild with lows 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and mild with occasional light rain developing from west to east by afternoon and evening, highs 9 to 12 C and winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will become windy and colder with passing showers, some wintry. At first this will be confined mostly to higher elevations but by later in the day could spread to most lower elevations also. Highs 5 to 8 C in brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY will also be breezy to windy and cold with passing wintry showers. Models have now dropped most of the energy that was earlier shown over parts of the south, so not much risk of strong winds, but westerlies of 50 to 80 km/hr will add some chill to the day. Morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will be windy and cold with wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible on higher terrain in the north and west, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

The OUTLOOK for later next week is for milder air to return in moderate to strong southwest winds, highs will return to the 9 to 12 C range again. There may be some rain at times also. The first part of February looks very mild as the southwest flow continues through the first week at least.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with wet snow that has turned to a light sleety rain this evening, not very pleasant but at least there is little melting underway at our location at least. The high was around +1 C.

Sunday, 26 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Jan to 1 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal, colder at first, but balanced by milder than average readings later in the week.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values, and some of the precipitation will be wintry.
-- Sunshine will average 25 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become windy and quite cold, with passing showers, these becoming increasingly wintry by mid-day or afternoon, with a growing risk of sleet or snow accumulations mainly on hills in west and north at first, but also at lower elevations by later in the day. Temperatures steady or slowly falling in the range of 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be windy and mostly cloudy with sleety showers, some accumulations of snow mainly on hills. Lows will fall to about 1 or 2 C. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr will add some chill (feeling like -4 C).

MONDAY will be quite windy and cold with wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills. Lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr. There may be an interval of stronger winds in Connacht towards evening (westerly 80 to 110 km/hr). Some thunder is likely with the heavier mixed showers.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, windy and cold with wintry showers again, risk of thunder and hail in some of these showers, with lows 1 to 3 C, highs 5 to 8 C, and winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will see a gradual moderation in the colder temperatures and fewer if any showers, with partly cloudy skies. Also less windy, temperatures will recover to around 8 or 9 C after a frosty start in some places. Mainly dry although some isolated outbreaks of light rain. A more general rainfall is likely overnight into Thursday morning.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY seem likely to return to the milder southwest winds, rain and strong gusts at times, with highs 10 to 12 C.

The OUTLOOK for early February is for generally mild weather but with the occasional colder day in the mix as the flow remains westerly mixing in some milder intervals with brief shots of colder air.

My local weather on Saturday was misty with drizzle changing back to wet snow, some greasy accumulations of about 1 or 2 cm, and temperatures slowly falling from about +1 C to -2 C.

Tuesday, 28 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Jan to 3 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (see forecasts for variations though).
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and cold with further wintry showers. Once again, the majority of these will be in the west and north, and over higher terrain mainly in the southeast. Some parts of the east and south will have longer sunny intervals. Highs 4 to 7 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr with some higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT will bring some clearing of skies in general, wintry showers more confined to the north, and some frost elsewhere, lows -3 to +2 C. It will become less windy except near the northwest coasts.

WEDNESDAY will see milder air moving in gradually, and a reduction in the wind speeds to 40 km/hr. These will continue westerly then back to southerly later. Skies will be partly cloudy with some higher overcast likely. Morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will become milder again, generally dry with intervals of light rain near the west coast, moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, morning lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs 8 or 9 C.

SATURDAY will bring an early band of rain (10-15 mm possible) and highs near 11 C. It will become colder by afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY will be breezy and rather cold with passing showers, highs near 7 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is currently rather cold and somewhat more wintry than we have seen especially in the east, as winds turn more into a north to northeast direction which could bring snow showers to some places that have escaped them in this current cold spell. Temperatures will fall off to about 2 to 5 C.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with fog over the local hills, and temperatures near 1 deg C.

Thursday, 30 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Jan to 5 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above (1.0 deg).
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal. There will be a tendency for much of this to fall in the overnight hours due to the timing of weather systems and it will become dry towards the end of the interval.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and relatively mild. There may be a few isolated showers in the north but a generally dry day for most. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, except for stronger gusts near Donegal Bay and the north coast. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be windy with occasional rain, 5-10 mm expected, most of it after midnight. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr and lows near 7 C.

FRIDAY will turn partly cloudy again, with winds slightly diminished by mid-day and afternoon. Highs near 9 C.

SATURDAY will see another round of early morning rainfall with strong southwest winds, then the day will turn slightly colder. Temperatures will be as high as 11 C in the morning and will then fall back to about 7 C later. Winds southwest to west 70 to 110 km/hr.

SUNDAY may start out rather frosty in some parts of the northeast. Cloud will spread in to other regions bringing temperatures back up above freezing. Rain, possibly starting as sleet, will fall at times during the day and into the evening. Temperatures will warm considerably in the south to near 10 C, but may stay lower (4 to 7 C) in the north where any sleet or wet snow will eventually turn to rain.

MONDAY will be breezy and colder again, with falling temperatures and clearing skies by late afternoon after a few passing showers. Highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are likely to be dry, partly cloudy to sunny days, and rather cold with morning frosts and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. The threat of snow seems to be gone for the time being as winds will stay more northwesterly.

The further OUTLOOK is for a long stretch of very unsettled weather into mid-February with a parade of strong lows expected to develop and occasional winds of alert strength seem likely. Details of course too far ahead to be very specific. We will be lucky to avoid at least one fairly significant windstorm in this pattern though.

My local weather on Wednesday was not very pleasant, a mixture of wet snow and rain fell across the region all day, about 5 cm of new snow accumulated on higher ground but it was mostly rain in the valleys, temperatures between 1 and 3 C and quite foggy as well.

Saturday, 1st of February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which are currently about 8 C max, 2 C min).
-- Rainfall will average 50% of the normal amount for early February (about 20 mm a week).
-- Sunshine will average 25% above the normal values (which are around 2.3 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY ... temperatures are near their maximum for the day already and will begin to drop off gradually by late morning or mid-day, settling in around 7 to 9 C this afternoon. The blustery southwest winds will gradually moderate and skies will turn partly cloudy, with little if any further rainfall until late tonight. However, some showers or intervals of steady rain may re-develop later across parts of Ulster and north coast Connacht.

TONIGHT will start out rather cold in north Leinster and Ulster with a slight frost possible for a time, followed by rising temperatures and sleety rain. Elsewhere, temperatures will also be rising but from a higher base (3 to 6 C) and rain will likely not be mixed with snow except on higher summits. Moderate south to southwest winds will set in with the rainfall.

SUNDAY may start out rather frosty in some parts of the northeast. Cloud will spread in to other regions bringing temperatures back up above freezing. Rain, possibly starting as sleet, or mixing through the first part of the day, will fall at times from early morning in the south and west, into the evening in most regions. Temperatures will warm up considerably in the south to about 10 to 12 C, but may stay lower (4 to 7 C) in the north where any sleet or wet snow will only gradually turn to mostly rain. Amounts will be 10 to 20 mm.

MONDAY will be breezy and colder again, with falling temperatures and clearing skies by late afternoon after a few passing showers. Lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C. Some wintry showers may develop in the north. Winds will be westerly 70 to 100 km/hr and may increase to alert status by evening in the north.

TUESDAY will be breezy and rather cold with passing showers that may be wintry in some places in the north, but a clearing trend will develop by afternoon. Winds west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY may bring slight frosts to parts of the inland south, lows generally -2 to +3 C, then sunny intervals with increasing high cloud during the day, lighter winds and highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will probably stay dry too with slightly milder temperatures in a developing southwest flow, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain and moderate southwest winds, highs near 11 C.

The OUTLOOK remains very unsettled and even stormy at times into the weekend of 8th-9th Feb and beyond. Some charts around the 9th-10th are looking close to "orange alert" status for westerly winds and as this would coincide with full moon, storm surge issues may develop around Galway Bay and on the west coast in general. During the following week it may remain very windy at times with further storm warnings possible then too.

My local weather on Friday was overcast, foggy and mild with some light rain at times. Temperatures have edged up to around 4 C and will peak at about 6 C later today. There is some standing water from melting of a portion of the heavy snow pack here, and a growing avalanche risk in all the western mountain ranges for the coming few days.

Monday, 3 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1.0 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 30 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal amounts.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite windy and cold with some sunny intervals this morning in east and south, followed by more widespread passing showers now starting to develop in west and north, a few of them wintry on higher terrain in the north. Winds west to northwest at 50 to 80 km/hr with possible higher gusts by afternoon and evening in some parts of the north. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will be windy and cold with a few more wintry showers likely, some accumulations of snow possible on hills in northern Connacht and west Ulster. Lows -1 to 3 C.

TUESDAY will start out with more mixed wintry showers and gusty northwest winds but there will be a slow clearing trend with winds moderating towards the afternoon. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring slight frosts to the inland south, followed by increasing daytime cloud but mainly dry weather, and less windy also, especially for the south and east, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies, patchy light rain near west and north coasts. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will also be mild but with stronger winds and more widespread light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Strong southwest winds are likely by the evening and overnight hours (60 to 100 km/hr).

SATURDAY will be windy and rather cold with intervals of light rain and southwest winds 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY and possibly also MONDAY will be very windy (westerly 80 to 130 km/hr potentially) with risk of storm surge conditions on the west coast, squally showers, and temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for the following week continues to be quite unsettled and it may become very windy again by Tuesday 11th into Wednesday 12th, with another peak of wind speeds around 80 to 130 km/hr possible then as well. This fast westerly pattern appears locked in for several weeks now and there are no real signs of change in that even as far ahead as the 20th of February.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and rather cold, with icy conditions due to the freeze following Saturday's brief thaw. Highs were around -4 C and this evening it has fallen off to around -10 C.