Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Charts not as windy in the SE today, keeping the strongest winds offshore. Windy along the W and NW later.

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Yellow wind warning issued for Waterford and Wexford. Not a breeze down this way. Plenty of rain though.

I see mickger8444post station only recorded a gust of 33.3km/h , Waterford airport only got up to 20 km/h in the afternoon . The charts did a dramatic change over night keeping the small disturbance just crossing the SE hence keeping the winds over the UK . As far as I could make out this morning only one model kept the winds close to the coast and even at that it was only brushing against it.

Long time since we had a HP proper build over us, could get up to Weds or so out of it.

Less than 120hrs and the models are very different over the weekend . They agree more or less that the frontal rain looks to be delayed more towards late Sat and into Sunday morning. They go on to show a cold wet and wintry Sunday, breezy /windy along the coasts. Looking increasingly wintry towards evening / night and into the following day . Big spread then in the models. ECM and UKMO not developing the fast moving low on Monday, keeping it well off the NW and passing by much earlier. This is a big departure from the ECM , had a different set up all together for Monday showing strong winds in Southern counties which makes me ask is the 12Z an outlier ? GFS shows a very windy day as it has been showing for a number of runs and days as squarecircles has been posting and ICON showing very windy weather also but from a different approach. GFS and ICON showing a very wet day Mon but ECM now showing more of a showery wintry day.

To note that ECM has done an amazing change from large areas seeing 50 mm + on Monday to now seeing 5 or 10 mm, UKMO has also backed off the heavy rainfall.

ECM very cold on Monday possibly only around 4 to 7C

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ICON 18Z showing the biggest winds now moving off the SE / E coasts and showing a dump of snow Monday in Northern counties from a front as it reaches the colder air.

ECM shows some accumulations mainly in the W and NW mainly over high ground.


A lot going on and am thinking we could be seeing big changes in the charts over the coming days, the cold looks to be there, all depends where the moisture comes from and the timing. Interesting

One prediction : There is definitely a Kermit Snow thread coming!

ICON's route for Monday . All very much subject to change over the coming days but good for the learning to see how the models handle this.









The kind of snowfall that ICON is predicting for Monday in it's last run but could all change in a couple of runs.

Sunday evening /night the ECM picking out a trough I reckon which currently looks to cross the country producing some sort of wintry mix, possibly rain and areas getting sleet/ snow mix and snow on higher ground, Looks like the W, NW and N getting the most of it. Showers overnight into Monday look wintry and very cold and windy on the coasts. Any signs of a wind event have disappeared from all the models, getting windier towards Monday evening into Tuesday.

Big adjustment by the ECM taking that small low well off the coast early Tuesday

Quite windy later Fri into Saturday. Will feel windy well inland across the country.

Mild day tomorrow. Bit cooler on Saturday.

Much cooler tomorrow under a colder airmass, probably about 6 to 8 C in general, feeling very cold in the wind, Blustery showers some wintry on high ground in the W, NW and N, thunderstorm potential along the Northern coasts so hail showers possible. Showers making there way across the country could leave a dusting on the Wicklow Mts.

Other models dont develop as much the fast moving LP for Saturday