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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Scot Chapman walks through the Grand Solar Min, and its effects on the Heliosphere and Volcanoes and the earth in general in this video.
    Its really well done, I find it interesting.

    But a cup of tea and settle in to watch video, Enjoy!:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGVJWC-l-E&t=1484s


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    But a cup of tea and settle in to watch video, Enjoy!:

    I like my tea and one cup just will not cut it for a near 3 hour vid!

    But thanks for the link. Shall watch it over the weekend.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I like my tea and one cup just will not cut it for a near 3 hour vid!

    But thanks for the link. Shall watch it over the weekend.

    Enjoy. I'm not sure I fully agree with him in some parts but he pulls it all together really well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭damino


    273 spotless days with 36 continous spotless days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Up to 78% Blank for the year now -

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 39 days
    2019 total: 276 days (78%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 22 Dec 2019


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,388 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    A bit shorter .. 10 minutes, uploaded 19th Dec 2019



    About 6m 30s in he describes the effects on us here on planet earth. And during video does mention the Famine in Ireland / Potato Blight was as a result of last big minimum ..




  • Another little sunspot popped its head out today, probably gone already.
    Sunspot number: 11
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 23 Dec 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Another little sunspot popped its head out today, probably gone already.

    Was it new cycle or old?




  • SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Was it new cycle or old?

    New cycle 25




  • Solar Cycle 25 is revving up in the background.
    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/12/25/reversed-polarity-sunspots-appear-on-the-sun/

    Reversed Polarity Sunspots Appear on the Sun

    December 25, 2019 / Dr.Tony Phillips
    Dec. 24, 2019: Solar Cycle 25 really is coming. Today, for the first time, there are two new-cycle sunspots on the solar disk–one in each hemisphere. This map of solar magnetic fields from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows their location:
    magnetogram_strip.jpg
    We know these sunspots belong to the next solar cycle because of their magnetic polarity. Simply put, they are backwards. According to Hale’s Law, sunspot polarities flip-flop from one solar cycle to the next. During old Solar Cycle 24, we grew accustomed to sunspots in the sun’s southern hemisphere having a -/+ pattern. However, look at today’s southern sunspot:
    newspot_strip.jpg
    It is the opposite: +/-. This identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 25.
    Likewise, today’s northern sunspot has a reversed polarity compared to northern spots from old Solar Cycle 24. It, too, therefore, belongs to Solar Cycle 25.

    Likewise, today’s northern sunspot has a reversed polarity compared to northern spots from old Solar Cycle 24. It, too, therefore, belongs to Solar Cycle 25.

    The sun is currently in Solar Minimum–the nadir of the 11-year sunspot cycle. It’s a deep Minimum, century-class according to sunspot counts. The scarcity of sunspots has been so remarkable that it has prompted discussion of a possible “extended Minimum” akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century when sunspots were absent for decades. Such an event could have implications for terrestrial climate.

    Today’s new-cycle sunspots (along with isolated new-cycle spots earlier this year) suggest that the solar cycle is, in fact, unfolding normally. A new Maunder Minimum does not appear to be in the offing. Forecasters expect Solar Cycle 25 to slowly gain strength in the years ahead and reach a peak in July 2025.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes



    From zharkovas paper(2014):

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266799418_Prediction_of_Solar_Activity_from_Solar_Background_Magnetic_Field_Variations_in_Cycles_21-23

    predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Well I guess that's it for 2019 281 spotless. (77%)
    Roll on 2020 and we will see how quick or how late the next cycles kicks in...

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 4 days
    2019 total: 281 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 31 Dec 2019




  • New Year, New cycle 25 sunspot, looks like it won't be around for too long.
    The transition between cycles is well underway now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The comparisons to the Maunder have always seemed to miss the more obvious parallel, the Dalton minimum.

    Check out this comparison of sunspot cycles:

    1778 very strong peak ___ 1989 strong peak

    1787 moderately strong long-lasting peak ___ 1999-2001 same

    1801-04 rather weak peak _______________ 2012-14 quite weak

    1809-11 long solar quiet _________________ 2018-19 very quiet sun

    1815-16 weak peak _____________________ 2025 weak peak ?

    1829-30 another weak solar max

    1837-38 resumption of strong solar activity

    (1848-70 three strong peaks)

    Then a third minimum began. I have copied the above and inserted the data for that less referenced solar downturn.

    1778 very strong peak ___ (1860) 1989 strong peak (Carrington event 1859, Quebec solar storm power outage 1989)

    1787 moderately strong long-lasting peak (1870) ___ 1999-2001 same

    1801-04 rather weak peak (1883) _______________ 2012-14 quite weak

    1809-11 long solar quiet (1889-90)______________ 2018-19 very quiet sun

    1815-16 weak peak __ (1893 mod weak peak) ____ 2025 weak peak ?

    1829-30 another weak solar max (1905-07 weak) __ ??

    1837-38 resumption of strong solar activity __ 1917 resumption of strong solar activity

    1848,60,70 strong peaks _________________ (more strong peaks in 20th c, 1928,37,47,57,68,79, 89)

    ______________________________

    Rather similar timing and cadence in all three cases (so far with the recent one). Also similar -- Tamboro's eruption at weak peak April 1815 and Krakatoa in 1883. Although different peaks in the analogy, seems like quite a coincidence and one wonders what might erupt in 2025 as we have dodged this bullet of a major dust veil producer thus far in the recent minimum.




  • Yes, I am also of the opinion that a Dalton type minimum is more likely, and not just because it is the maternal family name. ;)
    The 200 year pattern looks like it's repeating rather than the 400 year one that is less detailed due to it being based on reconstructions as opposed to actual observations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    "Rather similar timing and cadence in all three cases (so far with the recent one). Also similar -- Tamboro's eruption at weak peak April 1815 and Krakatoa in 1883. Although different peaks in the analogy, seems like quite a coincidence and one wonders what might erupt in 2025 as we have dodged this bullet of a major dust veil producer thus far in the recent minimum"

    The next eruption I think will occur around then or possibly before will be Katla. It is over due anyhow.
    Not sure if it will be big enough to effect on a global scale but certainly our neck of the woods.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Looking at Dr. Ned Nikolov twitter I see:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1213553938798006272

    He says:
    The predicted solar grand minimum around 2050 is not likely to have a TSI reduction of 8 W m-2, but 1.5-2 W m-2 is possible.
    A key point to remember is that TSI changes only slightly affect Global Temp., because the temp. sensitivity to TSI is just 0.053 K/(W m-2).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/07/14/nasa-goes-with-low-solar-cycle-25-prediction-30-50-lower-than-cycle-24/#comments
    The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.
    The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in California’s Silicon Valley

    (Though they got the last cycle prediction spectacularly wrong)
    There's an interesting discussion in the comments section..

    Leif Svalgaard predicted that cycle 25 would be higher than 24, but lower than cycle 20.

    And I've already posted Zharakovas prediction..


  • Posts: 0 Amari Narrow Ax


    Confirmation bias ahead but has there been an upswing in volcanic eruptions this past few months? Or just been reported on more?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    After a flurry of activity early in the year the Sun has gone all quiet again -

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 13 days
    2020 total: 16 days (67%)
    2019 total: 281 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 24 Jan 2020


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  • Just a little reminder that we are still in the transition phase between cycles.


    spaceweather.com



    TWO SOLAR CYCLES ACTIVE AT ONCE: Today, there are two active regions on the surface of the sun, places where strong magnetic fields are bubbling up from below. The magnetic polarity of the regions reveals something interesting: Two solar cycles are active at once. One region belongs to old Solar Cycle 24, the other to new Solar Cycle 25. This is normal. Solar cycles always overlap at their boundaries. It's just the latest sign that change is occurring on the sun. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.


  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭damino


    34 continous days without sunspots. 50 days so far this year.


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    So is the sun waking up at all then ?




  • So is the sun waking up at all then ?
    Yes it is, cycle 25 is revving up in the background.
    Over the past few months, there have been several cycle 25 sunspots, but they are very weak. Cycle 24 is still throwing up the odd sunspot from time to time as well because there is an overlap of several years that matches the solar minimum.




  • A new sunspot from cycle 25 has appeared.
    I suspect that many of these smaller ones wouldn't have been recorded during the Maunder minimum.
    hmi1898.gif


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    A new sunspot from cycle 25 has appeared.
    I suspect that many of these smaller ones wouldn't have been recorded during the Maunder minimum.
    hmi1898.gif

    Would they have had the ability to see in such detail as they have today ? could have easily been missed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Elijah Cold Stack, do you think sunspots will kick into action soon or are will likely to see repeat of 2019?




  • I expect that we will see the odd small sunspot from the next cycle from time to time, if the predictions are correct there will be more than last year, but only just.
    All the indications so far seem to show that cycle 25 will be far weaker than cycle 24.

    As it is, we've matched the percentage of spotless days as last year now.
    Sunspot number: 0
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 26 Mar 2020

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 16 days
    2020 total: 66 days (77%)
    2019 total: 281 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)

    EDIT: current forecast from NOAA
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update

    Solar Cycle 25 Forecast Update
    published: Monday, December 09, 2019 22:30 UTC

    The NOAA/NASA co-chaired, international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

    Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7th longest on record (11.4 years).




  • Well we're now in the most spotless year of the space age, according to the way spaceweather.com records the sunspots anyway.

    Sunspot number: 0
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 29 Mar 2020

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 19 days
    2020 total: 69 days (78%)
    2019 total: 281 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 29 Mar 2020


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    https://www.longdom.org/open-access/sunspot-cycle-minima-and-pandemics-the-case-for-vigilance-2332-2519-1000159.pdf

    Came accross this paper, linking pandemics and the sun.
    Because of current events, thought you may be interested..


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