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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 6 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rather windy and cool with passing showers, some of them quite heavy with hail and thunder, but on average about 3-7 mm of rain can be expected in most places. Highs 13-16 C from north to south, and winds WSW slowly veering to WNW 50-70 km/hr with risk of some higher gusts during the showers. There will be some sunshine in the mix also.

    TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing although staying overcast near north coasts, lows 3-6 C with the lowest values likely to be in the inland south and east.

    SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers mostly near northern coasts, and afternoon highs 13-16 C in moderate northwesterly breezes.

    MONDAY-TUESDAY should be largely dry, more cloud than sun for parts of Ulster and north Leinster, about an equal mix elsewhere, and just some very patchy drizzle or isolated showers in the flow from the Atlantic and Irish Sea in north to northeast winds reaching 30-50 km/hr at times. Lows very chilly for time of year (2-5 C) and highs about 14-17 C, warmest in the inland southwest.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are likely to become slightly warmer although still rather cool at night, and there may be somewhat more sunshine for many, as winds become more light and variable in a weaker northeast flow. Highs will be about 15 C east to 19 C west. There could be an interval of showers around Thursday afternoon or evening with a weak front when winds are likely to pick up rather steadily again from the north backing to northwest as low pressure moves up through southeast England.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a somewhat cooler air mass to build in from the west with moderate northwest to north winds returning, highs may be held down to around 14 C and there could be brief showers near northern and western coasts. This pattern will continue with rather slight variations from cooler, showery days to partly cloudy, generally dry days. Overall the month looks a bit on the cool side of average although not every day.

    My local weather on Friday was sunny and very warm with a high near 26 C. Partly because I am heading further inland for the weekend, I am expecting it to be very hot (32-35 C). I should get a forecast posted Sunday morning but if not, will return on Monday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 7 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals although probably more cloud than sun by afternoon in northern counties. Isolated showers but most places dry. Highs about 13 C north to 16 C south in moderate northwest to northerly breezes 40-60 km/hr at times.

    TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cool, even a slight risk of frost in a few inland spots. Lows generally 2 to 6 C.

    MONDAY ... Sunny intervals with considerable mid-day cloud over north, more of a mixture for central counties and it could be mostly sunny near the south coast. Highs about 12 C north to 15 C central, 17 C south in moderate north to northeast breezes.

    TUESDAY ... After another very cool start (lows 2-6 C) highs will be similar to Monday in mostly sunny conditions, cloudy intervals for the north, highs in the 12-16 C range.

    WEDNESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 3-7 C and highs 14-19 C with the warmer readings in south Connacht and west Munster. Light winds will make it feel quite warm in the sun.

    THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, lows 5-8 C and highs 14-17 C. Risk of a few showers by evening in moderate northwest winds.

    OUTLOOK ... Cool and rather unsettled in Ireland, risk of heavy rainfall in southern Britain by next weekend, as low pressure moves up from France rather slowly. Temperatures in both Ireland and Britain may be very cool for mid-June especially in the southeast counties of Ireland, and across southern England. Highs no better than mid-teens and possibly as low as 10-13 C in some places.

    My local weather on Saturday (I feel badly telling you this) was sunny and very warm to hot at 29 or 30 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 8 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    Astronomy note: With clear evenings possible all week, have a look in the western sky after sunset and you'll find very bright Venus as well as Jupiter, looking similar but not quite as bright. While that's interesting enough, these two planets will appear to converge at the end of June, staying visible until about the middle of July before both of them take separate paths towards conjunctions with the Sun (Jupiter is heading behind but Venus in front from our perspective).

    TODAY ... Sunny intervals with considerable mid-day cloud over north, more of a mixture for central counties and it could be mostly sunny near the south coast. Highs about 12 C north to 15 C central, 17 C south in moderate north to northeast breezes.

    TONIGHT ... Cloud gradually thinning out, clear after midnight in some areas, cool. Lows 2-6 C.

    TUESDAY ... Under partly cloudy to sunny skies, afternoon highs will be similar to today in the north but a little higher elsewhere, ranging from 12 C north to 18 C in some parts of the south and west to about Galway. The east coast will have local sea breezes that may drop temperatures to near 14 C but otherwise breezes will be lighter except near exposed coasts.

    WEDNESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 3-7 C and highs 14-19 C with the warmer readings in south Connacht and west Munster. Light winds will make it feel quite warm in the sun.

    THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, lows 5-8 C and highs 14-18 C. Risk of a few showers by evening in moderate northwest winds. (If you're travelling to France, a low near their west coast may bring heavy rain and thunderstorms which would be firing up late Wednesday and continuing).

    FRIDAY ... Some cloud and showery light rain may push gradually southward but skies further south may stay partly cloudy and highs will range from 13 C north to 17 C south. As the week progresses, we'll be keeping an eye on an area of heavy rain expected to be heading past the southeast counties of Ireland, from Biscay towards Britain, if that happens to choose a path further west then Wexford and some other counties could see some of it, but so far it looks set to miss by about a hundred miles. It will be a rather wet day in Britain as a result, though.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... At this point, the best guess would be cloudy with sunny intervals, a few showers here or there, and temperatures either below or near normal values in the 14-17 C range, with nights around 7-9 C. This could improve or get somewhat worse depending on how stubborn the low pressure complex over Britain becomes late in the week. Also, there's a weak secondary system lurking to the northwest that wants to take a leisurely tour of Ireland and Britain early to mid-week after the weekend, and that could turn into spells of heavy showers in some areas with temperatures mid-teens. Beyond that, improvemernts could be steady and another dry, reasonably warm spell could develop later next week (around the 18th to 20th).

    As you see, I am going to blend some of the Britain forecast highlights into these forecasts because it's summer and a lot of people are on the go. But as for North America, right now most of the continent is quite warm, the west is hot and dry, the southeast and east central U.S. hot and humid, but it's somewhat cooler over the upper Great Lakes and the front is setting off heavy storms across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley. These will move to the east coast later today. ... My local weather on Sunday was sunny and near-record hot at about 32 C (closer to 25 C by the sea). A very weak front will move through late today and I'm hoping it generates some photo-worthy storm clouds over the nearby mountains, but it may just be a dry windshift.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 9 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Sunny in most places but some cloudy intervals across northwest counties, with generally light northeast breezes that will be chilly near the Irish Sea. Highs across inland south, most of the west should reach 17 C, while the east coast could peak at 14 C, parts of the north around 13 C.

    TONIGHT ... Clear with lows 3 to 7 C, possible slight ground frosts in a few locations.

    WEDNESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, somewhat warmer again with highs 18-20 C in south and west, 13-15 C north and east.

    THURSDAY ... A somewhat milder night with lows near 7 C, then some morning sunshine with increasing cloud, becoming rather windy by afternoon across the south coastal counties, rain by evening extending into parts of Munster and south Leinster. Highs 15-17 C.

    FRIDAY ... Rain with possible embedded thunderstorms in parts of the south and east but partly cloudy elsewhere, at this point the guidance indicates about 10-15 mm rainfalls for just the southeast quadrant and the dry spell generally continuing for other regions. Highs about 16 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Further weak disturbances will form in a generally east to northeast wind flow, leading to scattered outbreaks of light rain, but there will be some sunny intervals too. Highs will remain around 14 or 15 C in the east, 16 to 19 C west.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... We are being shown a progressive warming trend next week but this signal has faded in some other examples recently and the culprit for that may be the widespread colder temperatures of the North Atlantic this month (the ocean continues to run 2-4 C deg below its normal surface temperatures although it is recovering to near normal in the Biscay region recently). So for now we'll call for near normal temperatures and perhaps a generally dry trend but not without some chance of rain at times.

    My local weather on Monday was sunny and hot with a high of 31 C, but it has cooled off very slightly this evening as a weak front passed. Tuesday's high is likely to be about 25 C under sunshine and a strong sea breeze.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 10 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, somewhat warmer again with highs 18-20 C in south and west, 13-15 C north and east.

    TONIGHT ... Mostly clear although increasing high cloud in south, slightly milder than past nights as an easterly breeze will keep the air moving, lows about 5-8 C.

    THURSDAY ... Mist or fog patches dissipating, then some morning sunshine with increasing cloud, becoming rather windy (E-NE 40-60 km/hr) by afternoon across the south coastal counties, rain by evening extending into parts of Munster and south Leinster. Highs 15-17 C although could be closer to 19 C in parts of Connacht.

    FRIDAY ... Rain with possible embedded thunderstorms in parts of the south and east but partly cloudy elsewhere, about 10-15 mm rainfalls for much of the south and east while the current dry spell may continue in other regions, at least through the daytime hours. Highs about 16 C north but could be held to 13-14 C in rain further south, unless some breaks develop to allow a few sunny breaks.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Further weak disturbances will form in a generally east to northeast wind flow, leading to scattered outbreaks of light rain, but there will be some sunny intervals too. Highs will remain around 14 or 15 C in the east, 16 to 19 C west. The guidance is somewhat scattered and estimated amounts of rainfall vary from 20 mm in some parts of the south to 5 mm in Connacht and west Ulster, with a range of about 5-10 mm on those estimates.

    NEXT WEEK ... Models are generally liking next week, with general indications of clearing through Monday then relatively warm (20-23 C) sunny days later in the week but as I mentioned yesterday, I hope the cold Atlantic doesn't decide to spoil their party and add some form of cloud or moisture to this pattern. It could then end up more like 17-19 C and slightly unsettled. Can the models be wrong at six or seven days? That question has been answered quite a few times, but then they can also be right so keep your fingers crossed.

    Over in BRITAIN the themes are similar, the Friday rainfall now seems more likely to take a path into western and central portions of England, and Wales, then into southeast Scotland. It may turn out quite warm and humid in southeast England for Friday, and the first part of Saturday (23-24 C) with risk of a heavy thunderstorm in places.

    The pattern continues very warm in many parts of North America and there is only a slight cooling trend in the west due to slight increases in the seabreeze intensity. With that in mind, Tuesday here was almost the same kind of day as the past two but the high was cut back to 26 C. This evening it has felt very comfortable at about 17 C. If you're heading for the eastern U.S. expect hot and humid conditions and highs of 32-34 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 11 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Sunny for most of the day except near the south coast where cloud will gradually spread in, perhaps breaking up and reforming from time to time, as winds slowly increase to E-NE 30-50 km/hr (stronger off the south coast). Highs generally 19-21 C except 14-17 C near east coast and south coast.

    TONIGHT ... Cloud followed by showery rain and slight risk of a brief thunderstorm, amounts fairly moderate at 5-10 mm. This rain may break up before reaching some parts of the north well after midnight or even towards sunrise. Elsewhere, it appears likely to be more concentrated in Cork and Kerry now, but could also flare up over the southeast. Lows 11-14 C.

    FRIDAY ... A few remnant showers appear likely, some guidance suggests higher potential for heavy showers while other indications pretty much weaken the system to the point where only slight amounts are likely, so expect a rather hit or miss outcome with an average of perhaps 3-5 mm. Highs about 17 C in parts of the west and north, 14 C in southeast, due to extensive cloud although some sunny intervals could develop and then it could warm up to near 20 C in a few spots.

    SATURDAY ... Generally cloudy in the east, partly cloudy west, and slight risk of showers, one or two locally heavy. Even so, most places will stay dry and the temperature range will be small, from morning lows near 12 C to afternoon highs near 15 C east, 18 C west. Moderate northeast breezes may promote cooling sea breezes within 10 km of the Irish Sea.

    SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy but becoming mostly sunny in some areas, rather warm with highs near 18 C away from any cooling sea breezes in the north and east.

    MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs near 20 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Warmer and dry mid-week, highs to 23 C, then a slight cooling trend with highs 15-19 C and a slight increase in the risk of showers. Another dry spell could then follow if in fact there is much or any rain late next week. The guidance remains scattered between generally dry and slightly unsettled, but there are no indications of any really poor drying conditions so we think that there is no particular rush to take advantage of early dry conditions since much of the outlook period looks relatively dry too.

    Over in BRITAIN, generally speaking the same pattern with locally heavy rainfalls possible on Friday night into Saturday morning across north-central England and north Wales. In advance of that, it may be as warm as 23 C in the south tomorrow and even on Saturday in some parts.

    My local weather was sunny and very pleasant on Wednesday, with highs about 25 C and a noticeable sea breeze. The trend is towards slightly cooler and somewhat more cloudy conditions later in the week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 12 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but with a few sunny breaks especially in northern counties and possibly near the east coast. Morning showery rainfalls of 5-8 mm in parts of Munster and south Connacht will probably dissipate around mid-day and after that there may be just isolated showers in parts of the northwest. Winds northeast 30-50 km/hr will also become somewhat variable, highs will reach 15-17 C in most places.

    TONIGHT ... Partial clearing across the north, remaining cloudy in the south with risk of some rain or even a thunderstorm brushing the southeast coastal regions (this is not certain, the rain may hover just offshore most of the time). Mild with lows 10-13 C.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals developing, winds northerly but converging from northeast across Irish Sea, northwest on Atlantic coasts. This may lead to some showers in central regions, which have some slight risk of becoming thundery. However, many places will likely have a mainly dry day and highs will be 14-16 C.

    SUNDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, still a slight risk of showers in Leinster and east Munster. Lows 8-11 C and highs 15-19 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will probably be mostly sunny and quite warm, especially Tuesday. Highs near 19 or 20 C Monday, 22 to 24 C is possible on Tuesday away from cooler coasts (southerly breezes by then would mean that the south coast may run cooler than the east coast this time).

    By WEDNESDAY there could be a few showers along a rather weak cold front dropping south and causing temperatures to fall back to about 18 C.

    However, another pleasant spell could then follow with highs back around 20 or 21 C. It's going to take a week or two of this kind of weather to bring the month back to normal as right now the average is about 1.5 deg below average despite the recent warmth.

    Somewhat heavier rainfalls are likely in BRITAIN on Friday night and Saturday but these might take a path that avoids the southeast until later Saturday. Locally heavy falls are possible in north Wales and parts of northwest England.

    Across the U.S. and southern Canada, most places had a warmer than average day with some locally severe storms in the Ohio valley and developing across the Rockies. My local weather continues to be quite summer-like with another full day of sunshine on Thursday and highs near 24 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 13 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... The rain off the southeast coast will probably edge back to the southeast and otherwise it will remain mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals developing, winds northerly but converging from northeast across Irish Sea, northwest on Atlantic coasts. This may lead to some showers in central regions, which have some slight risk of becoming thundery. However, many places will likely have a mainly dry day and highs will be 14-17 C.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, fog or mist developing especially near some coasts, lows 7-10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Cloudy in the morning in some parts, then becoming mostly sunny with cloudy intervals, and a slight risk of isolated showers. Highs 15-19 C.

    MONDAY will become mostly sunny with highs 18-21 C.

    TUESDAY looks even warmer with potential for highs to reach 21-23 C away from somewhat cooler south and west coasts. Skies will be sunny except for some low cloud or fog patches near those cooler coastlines. Cloud may spread across Ulster and north Connacht by late in the afternoon.

    WEDNESDAY, there could be a few showers along a rather weak cold front dropping south and causing temperatures to fall back to about 18 C.

    THURSDAY will bring partly cloudy to sunny skies and somewhat warmer highs again, around 20 or 21 C.

    FRIDAY 19th to SUNDAY 21st will bring partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures with a slight chance of showers in a west to northwest wind flow.

    If travelling through BRITAIN today, expect some locally heavy showers or even thunderstorms in places, highs 18-20 C west and north, 20-23 C southeast. After that the general trends will be similar to the above.

    My local weather on Friday was mostly sunny but it became cooler with a strong westerly breeze gusting to 60 km/hr, highs near 20 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 14 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Cloudy intervals but with some sun getting through as most of the cloud will be mid-level or higher layers, and just a slight risk of isolated showers, most places will remain dry. Highs 15-19 C.

    TONIGHT ... Cloud thinning but with some fog and mist patches developing in valleys, lows 6-9 C.

    MONDAY will become partly to mostly sunny with highs 18-21 C.

    TUESDAY looks even warmer with potential for highs to reach 21-23 C away from somewhat cooler south and west coasts. Skies will be sunny except for some low cloud or fog patches near those cooler coastlines. Cloud may spread across Ulster and north Connacht by afternoon. Moderate south to southwest breezes will develop (30-50 km/hr).

    WEDNESDAY, there will be a few showers along a rather weak cold front dropping south and causing temperatures to fall back to about 18 C. Rainfall about 5-10 mm in parts of the north, 2-5 mm south where highs may reach about 21 C before the cloud thickens. Moderate westerly winds at times, with gusts to about 60 km/hr.

    THURSDAY will bring partly cloudy to sunny skies and somewhat warmer highs again, around 20 or 21 C.

    FRIDAY 19th to SUNDAY 21st will bring partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures with an increasing risk of a few showers in a southwest to west wind flow. Highs will be about 18-21 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is some chance of a cooler, briefly unsettled interlude around Monday 22nd and Tuesday 23rd as most of the guidance shows low pressure tracking east across some part of Ireland (the emphasis seems to be south rather than north). If this verifies highs may fall back to the mid-teens for a few days. However, it may fade out of the outlook before we get that far, or turn into something more organized.


    My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a pleasant cooling breeze and highs near 22 C. This past evening was clear and I just got back from a nice viewing of the setting Venus and Jupiter, which you might want to check out any clear evening about an hour after sunset, in the western sky. Saturn is also easy to spot, it's off to the southeast about that same time and is brighter than various stars although Spica (which is between Saturn and Jupiter in the south around 10:30-11:00 p.m.) is almost as bright. The moon will be absent from the sky for a few days as it's new moon on the 16th. You won't be able to see this last detail, but Mars will be behind the Sun today as we're on opposite sides of the solar system at this point.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 15 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Rather cloudy this morning, with the sun breaking through more frequently in south and east. Chance of some drizzle or mist near west and northwest coasts. Highs will range from 15 C in the coastal overcast to near 20 in many parts of the central, southern and eastern counties. Light winds.

    TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals in the south and east, overcast elsewhere and there may be some mist or fog near west coast. Lows 8-12 C.

    TUESDAY ... Warm and humid with frequent cloudy intervals in west and north with highs 17-19 C, some light rain possible by afternoon around Donegal Bay, but partly cloudy in east and south, highs 21-23 C except near 15 C on parts of the south coast where sea fog may come and go.

    WEDNESDAY ... A very mild night with lows 12-15 C, then intervals of rain setting in before dawn across Ulster may spread further south by mid-day (possibly as far as Galway to Dublin) bringing about 5 mm or so, and it will turn slightly cooler in most regions except the south. Highs about 16 C north to 21 C south. Moderate westerly winds will develop with gusts to 60 km/hr.

    THURSDAY ... A few remnant showers in the morning but generally a dry day and becoming partly to mostly sunny except for persistent cloud in the north, highs near 20 C.

    FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, pleasantly warm with highs near 20 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The following weekend may remain reasonably dry with similar temperatures in the 18-21 C range, but then there are still some signals for a cooler, more unsettled start to the next week (22nd to 24th at least). Highs would be around 16 or 17 but there is a considerable chance that the dry spell could persist a bit longer into that week too.

    This rather bland and mild pattern will be similar for BRITAIN with highs into the 22-24 C range at times in southern England. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm appears to be forming in the Gulf of Mexico and this is expected to bring drenching rains to southeast Texas and inland as far as Oklahoma by tomorrow and Wednesday. ... My local weather has remained sunny and warm this weekend and Sunday produced a high of about 25 C. Another hot spell is developing for part of the coming week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 16 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 3:05 p.m. IST, no eclipse as the Moon passes a considerable distance above the Sun.

    TODAY ... Warm and humid with frequent cloudy intervals in west and north and highs 17-19 C, with some light rain possible by afternoon around Donegal Bay, but partly cloudy in east and south, highs 20-22 C except near 15 C on parts of the south coast where sea fog may come and go.

    TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of light rain in northern counties, overcast and very mild elsewhere with some mist or fog patches, lows 12-15 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of rain setting in before dawn across Ulster and north Connacht may spread further south by mid-day (possibly just beyond a Galway to Dublin line by afternoon) bringing about 3-7 mm rainfalls, and it will turn slightly cooler in most regions except the south. Highs about 16 C north to 21 C south. Moderate westerly winds will develop with gusts to 60 km/hr.

    THURSDAY ... A few remnant showers in the morning mostly inland south, but otherwise generally a dry day and becoming partly to mostly sunny except for persistent cloud in the north and near the south coast, highs 18-20 C.

    FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, pleasantly warm with highs near 20 C.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few showers in northern and some central counties, highs near 18 C.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, turning cooler with showers and bright spells, winds northwest 40-70 km/hr, highs near 16 C. Rainfalls of about 5 mm expected.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Remaining rather unsettled and cool for a few days in the following week (22nd to 26th) with highs generally 15-19 C. Rainfalls of about 20 mm could develop.

    The forecasts for BRITAIN will be generally similar if perhaps a degree or two warmer in southern England. Across eastern North America, very warm and humid with some severe storms in parts of the Great Lakes and inland northeast states. Tropical Storm Bill has formed overnight and will soon move into central Texas with heavy rainfalls to the right of its track over eastern Texas moving into Oklahoma tonight and Wednesday. Peak winds will only be around 100 km/hr but flooding rainfalls may be more of a concern. Meanwhile the far west continues very warm and dry. My local weather on Monday was sunny and hot with highs near 30 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 17 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY ... Intervals of rain most of this morning across Ulster and north Connacht will spread further south by mid-day (possibly just beyond a Galway to Dublin line by afternoon) bringing about 3-7 mm rainfalls, and it will turn slightly cooler in most regions except the south. Highs about 16 C north to 21 C south. Moderate westerly winds will develop with gusts to 60 km/hr as skies become partly cloudy after rain moves south.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals mainly in northern counties, a few remnant showers across Munster and south Leinster, lows 6-9 C.

    THURSDAY ... A few remnant showers in the morning mostly inland south, but otherwise generally a dry day and becoming partly to mostly sunny except for persistent cloud in the north and near the south coast, highs 18-20 C.

    FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, pleasantly warm with highs near 20 C. Somewhat more cloud and a slight risk of drizzle or light showers will cover northwest coasts.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few showers in northern and some central counties, highs near 18 C. Breezy, winds westerly 40-60 km/hr.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, turning slightly cooler with showers and bright spells, winds northwest 40-70 km/hr, highs near 14 C north to 17 C south. Rainfalls of about 2 to 5 mm expected.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Remaining rather unsettled and cool for a few days in the early part of the following week (22nd and 23rd) with highs generally 15-19 C then a dry interval mid-week, highs near 20 C, followed by heavier rainfall late in the week when rainfalls of about 20 mm could develop, highs near 18 C.

    Similar forecasts will apply to most of Britain. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bill moved into east-central Texas late Tuesday and will plod slowly north bringing very heavy rainfalls that may spread across the Dallas-Fort Worth region late today after drenching Waco during the day with 100-200 mm of rain. This wet remnant system will probably persist for several days as it drifts north into Oklahoma. Meanwhile, western warmth is slowly fading but it remains hot and humid in the eastern states. Washington DC hit 36 C on Tuesday. My local weather was a lot more tolerable than that, with sunshine through increasing high cloud, and highs near 22 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 18 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, just isolated light showers with many locations remaining dry. Highs 16-19 C.

    TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, lows near 10 C.

    FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few showers developing mostly in parts of Connacht and west Munster. Highs 17-20 C.

    SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers with 3-7 mm rainfalls on average, but significant dry intervals in the mix, lows 8-11 C and highs 15-18 C.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, somewhat cooler again with lows around 7 and highs 13-17 C.

    MONDAY into WEDNESDAY ... Guidance is now somewhat scattered but a general theme of slow-moving low pressure systems and potential for rain at times, with the west and south apparently favoured for heavier amounts ... some guidance maintains a dry interval mid-week ... most indications suggest temperatures a little below the seasonal normals, highs 15-18 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Little change seems likely once we get into a slightly more unsettled pattern this may persist for a while. It won't be the worst weather for this time of year but certainly far from picture perfect too.

    Nothing very different for Britain in this forecast period. Rain heavier in the south than elsewhere when it does materialize.

    Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill have drenched Dallas-Fort Worth and region with over 100 mm of rain and are now heading through central Oklahoma not yet letting up. These are all areas that don't really need any excessive rainfall after a near-record wet spring. Severe storms are firing along another front further north in the plains states. Meanwhile it remains dry and rather warm across the west and extremely hot in the desert southwest. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with highs near 22 C. Sunset was very colourful in part due to smoke from distant forest fires and nearby smaller fires -- we even saw a truck load of wood chips on fire in an industrial park. The U.S. Open Golf is not that far away down in western Washington state and the forecast for there will include mostly dry weather although it could sprinkle with rain at times on Friday. Temperatures will warm up on the weekend to about 28-30 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 19 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers developing across some parts of the north, amounts generally 2-5 mm. Highs near 16 C in the north but closer to 20 C in the south. Rather humid and feeling warm.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear breaks, lows 8-10 C, showers may continue at times in the north.

    SATURDAY ... A somewhat fresher day with passing showers, one or two could turn heavy in the inland north and central counties. Moderate westerly winds and highs 14-17 C.

    SUNDAY ... Breezy and slightly cooler again with showers, generally 2-5 mm amounts, lows near 7 C and highs 14 C north to 17 C south.

    MONDAY ... Periods of rain across the south could bring 10-15 mm, variable cloud and more isolated showers in the north, highs generally 14-17 C.

    OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK ... Continued rather unsettled with temperatures near normal values (highs 16-19 C). There are some indications of improvements towards the end of the month but treat that as very preliminary at this stage (in other words, some model charts that would suggest warmer temperatures into the 22-24 C range, not really too convinced yet).

    My local weather on Thursday became mostly cloudy and we had a slight rainfall during the evening, the first for about two weeks here. It was rather cool and the highs were only around 19 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 20 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Cloudy this morning in most parts, a few light showers, then partly cloudy around mid-day and through the afternoon, still rather humid with highs near 20 C south, 17 C north.

    TONIGHT ... A few showers developing in moderate westerly winds, lows about 8-10 C.

    SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, slightly cooler in west to northwest breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C.

    MONDAY ... Early morning periods of rain across Munster should fade around mid-day, partly cloudy elsewhere with isolated showers, winds becoming more northerly and somewhat on the cool side with lows 8-10 C and highs 14-17 C.

    TUESDAY ... Partial clearing, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-20 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-20 C.

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, lows 7-10 C and highs 16-19 C.

    FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-20 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near the end of June it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

    This rather bland weather outlook will be similar for Britain. Across North America, many places are running warmer than average while the remnants of "Bill" (they track him still) have reached Kentucky and Ohio where 25-50 mm rainfalls are still possible as Bill brought a full load with him, apparently. By contrast, we are having the driest June I can remember around the west coast and even today's passing shower clouds which looked promising managed to drop only a few sprinkles of trace amounts of rain, with highs near 23 C. If you're watching the U.S. Open Golf expect two very sunny and warm days over the weekend with a stronger breeze by Sunday blowing down the hills -- should make for a rather wild finish.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 21 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland


    Astronomy note: Summer solstice occurs today at 5:38 p.m. Irish summer time. While this is the start of astronomical summer, most weather agencies regard the first of June as the onset of summer. Who's right? Interestingly, the warmest quarter of the year is probably a near average of the two, 12 June to 11 September.

    TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, slightly cooler in west to northwest breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain will move into parts of Kerry and Cork, bringing 10 mm to southern portions, but most other places will remain dry or just see light drizzly showers with trace to 1 mm amounts. Lows 7-9 C north, 11-13 C south.

    MONDAY ... Early morning periods of rain across south coast of Munster should fade before mid-day, partly cloudy to sunny elsewhere with just a few isolated showers mostly in north Connacht and west Ulster, winds becoming more northerly and somewhat on the cool side with highs 14-17 C. It may get a little warmer in the late afternoon and early evening in parts of the southwest.

    TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, risk of some heavier rain in the northwest, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-21 C.

    FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-21 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 27th-28th will probably see similar conditions with further showers, but near the end of June it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

    The forecasts for BRITAIN should follow a similar course but the rain brushing the south coast early Monday will then move into southern England and bring some heavy falls to the south coast later Monday.

    In NORTH AMERICA, heavy storms will continue and develop further across most of the Great Lakes region and parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley today. Meanwhile, warm and dry in the far west (very hot in the desert southwest). My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high near 24 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 21 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland


    Astronomy note: Summer solstice occurs today at 5:38 p.m. Irish summer time. While this is the start of astronomical summer, most weather agencies regard the first of June as the onset of summer. Who's right? Interestingly, the warmest quarter of the year is probably a near average of the two, 12 June to 11 September.

    TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, slightly cooler in west to northwest breezes 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15-18 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain will move into parts of Kerry and Cork, bringing 10 mm to southern portions, but most other places will remain dry or just see light drizzly showers with trace to 1 mm amounts. Lows 7-9 C north, 11-13 C south.

    MONDAY ... Early morning periods of rain across south coast of Munster should fade before mid-day, partly cloudy to sunny elsewhere with just a few isolated showers mostly in north Connacht and west Ulster, winds becoming more northerly and somewhat on the cool side with highs 14-17 C. It may get a little warmer in the late afternoon and early evening in parts of the southwest.

    TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, risk of some heavier rain in the northwest, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-21 C.

    FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-21 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 27th-28th will probably see similar conditions with further showers, but near the end of June it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

    The forecasts for BRITAIN should follow a similar course but the rain brushing the south coast early Monday will then move into southern England and bring some heavy falls to the south coast later Monday.

    In NORTH AMERICA, heavy storms will continue and develop further across most of the Great Lakes region and parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley today. Meanwhile, warm and dry in the far west (very hot in the desert southwest). My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high near 24 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 22 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Becoming partly cloudy with sunny breaks more frequent in the south central counties as a few showers or intervals of light rain develop further north, more frequent in north Connacht and west Ulster (2-4 mm potential there), and winds becoming more northerly so rather cool wth highs generally 14-16 C. It may get a little warmer in the late afternoon and early evening in parts of the southwest.

    TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing for most, a few remnant showers in the northwest, lows 5-9 C coolest inland central and south.

    TUESDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warming to highs of 17-21 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, possible showers or periods of light rain across some western regions, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-21 C.

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, risk of some heavier rain in the northwest, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-21 C.

    FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, lows 10-12 C and highs 17-21 C, high humidity levels in a southerly to southwesterly breeze.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 27th-28th will probably see similar conditions with further showers, and there are now signs of a more active rain-producing disturbance from the southwest around the last day of June, but into early July it may become just a bit warmer and another dry spell may develop. Current charts suggest highs near 22 C with potential for 24 C in a few places.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny and warm with sea breezes and highs in the 22-25 C range.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 23 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Sunny intervals will develop despite some higher cloud but parts of west Munster will remain mostly cloudy. It should be a mainly dry day with very light winds that will allow various sea breezes to develop. Highs 17-21 C.

    TONIGHT ... Becoming overcast with drizzle or light rain at times in western counties, not much accumulation, lows 8-12 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few intervals of light rain (2-5 mm on average), somewhat heavier near Donegal Bay. Highs 15-18 C.

    THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

    FRIDAY ... Breezy, warm and humid, a few showers or periods of rain, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

    WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy, rather warm, with heavier rain possible around Saturday night or early Sunday. At least with that timing the daytime hours could be reasonably dry. Highs both days 18-20 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are still indications of quite an active frontal system with heavy rainfall potential around 30 June or 1 July. Beyond that it may turn a bit warmer and less humid.

    A similar forecast for most parts of Britain, although quite a bit warmer at times in southern England by this weekend and early next week (24-26 C).

    Heavy storms will continue in parts of eastern North America, and very hot and humid conditions in parts of the southeast to mid-Atlantic states. Warm and dry further west. My local weather on Monday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals, with a high near 22 C. Had a look this evening for any sign of the aurora borealis, but had to settle for great views of the stars and planets (and the city as we tried to get a view from a nearby hilltop).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 24 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few afternoon sunny breaks developing, light rain this morning may bring 2-5 mm in parts of north, trace to 2 mm in southeast. Warm and humid by afternoon with some coastal fog near south coast. Highs 17-20 C.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with mist or fog patches, mild, lows 9-12 C.

    THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid, rain likely holding off in most areas but could brush parts of northwest coast with somewhat heavier amounts there. Highs 17-21 C.

    FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few showers, once again somewhat heavier in northwest than other regions, but average amounts 3-5 mm. Morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs near 18 C.

    SATURDAY ... Variable cloud with a few showers or outbreaks of light rain. Heavier rain is likely by evening. Lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

    SUNDAY ... The overnight rains should begin to ease off during the morning after 10-20 mm amounts, then warm and humid with a few isolated but possibly heavy showers in the afternoon, lows 13-15 C and highs 19-21 C.

    MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Rain seems rather likely at times from Tuesday 30th to the weekend of 4-5 July. The flow will become more southerly with embedded weak fronts and the chance of a more organized heavy rainfall event but timing for this will be vague until next week arrives, would say Friday 3rd most likely at this point.

    These projections all apply to BRITAIN except that some of the warmer days will feature highs into the mid 20s and there could also be the occasional outbreak of locally heavy thunderstorms.

    Heat wave conditions began to break down over the eastern U.S. on Tuesday with gusty winds in thunderstorms, and while it will remain quite warm, readings will be considerably lower in New England and parts of the Great Lakes region later this week. It will remain rather warm in the west leading to another hot spell there by this coming weekend. Tuesday in my location was sunny and the high was about 23 C.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 25 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Warm and humid with outbreaks of heavy, possibly thundery rain brushing northwest coastal regions and moving into north Ulster later. These areas could see 15-20 mm in total. Many other locations could remain largely dry with a few brighter intervals developing, but there is potential for isolated showers or thundershowers dropping 2-3 mm or so. Highs 19-22 C.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with occasional light rain, except more moderate rainfalls may continue to pulse across parts of the northwest. Lows 12-14 C.

    FRIDAY ... Warm and humid with a few showers, highs 19-21 C.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of light rain in west by mid-day or afternoon, becoming heavier in northwest counties by evening. Not as unsettled for Leinster or east Munster, rather warm again with lows 11-13 C and highs in the 18-21 C range.

    SUNDAY ... Early morning rainfalls of 5-10 mm moving across most regions, but a heavier band of possibly thundery rainfall near the south coast by daybreak, then gradual clearing, warm and humid. Lows 13-15 C and highs 19-22 C.

    MONDAY to early WEDNESDAY now appear less likely to bring rain than earlier, as systems are slowing down and being held back by rapidly swelling high pressure over the North Sea region. This will promote a warm, southeasterly flow into Ireland that could end with an outbreak of heavy thunderstorms (anywhere from 10 to 40 mm possible with this) especially in the eastern counties by Wednesday or Thursday (1-2 July). Highs will be at least 22-25 C away from cooler coasts during this spell but if the thunderstorm complex proves very active then Thursday could see temperatures held down by widespread low cloud. Eventually another frontal wave will push in from the south around Friday bringing cooler maritime air back in and dropping a further 10-15 mm rain, with temperatures back down to about 18 C.

    Meanwhile, the first half of this forecast period will bring similar conditions to BRITAIN but during the warmer interval, hot and humid conditions will probably push into southern regions from France and bring temperatures as high as 29-32 C to parts of inland southern England, 24-27 C Wales and central England. However, details may change closer to the time, about all we can say for certain now is that an interesting situation is likely to develop mid-week and all will depend on how far west the hot, humid air mass can push before being lifted off the surface to form thunderstorms. At the moment, the models seem to favour Wicklow and nearby counties for this.

    Over NORTH AMERICA, somewhat cooler, more seasonable conditions will develop as hot and humid air is pushed back into the southeast states. Heavy storms are likely along the slow-moving boundary in Kentucky, West Virginia and southern Virginia into eastern North Carolina. The west is warming up again and heat wave conditions will spread further north over the next few days. My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy but dry with highs near 21 C. Expecting 32 C here by Saturday (25 today, 28 Friday).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 26 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Morning showers will gradually clear eastward and some warm and sunny intervals are likely by mid-day and afternoon, although with isolated showers or thunderstorms developing over some inland regions. Highs will reach 21-23 C in fresh southwesterly winds.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks and isolated showers, lows 13-15 C.

    SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, warm and humid, increasing risk of showers by afternoon, heavier rain developing by evening, in moderate southerly winds. Highs 19-22 C.

    SUNDAY ... Morning showers or thunderstorms may be heavy at times during the early morning hours, then variable cloud with a few more isolated showers developing. Lows 13-15 C and highs 18-21 C.

    MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine east, cloudy west, quite warm and humid. Rain is likely to stay off the west coast but could brush a few outer coastal districts by later in the day. Moderate southeast to south winds, lows 14-17 C and highs around 22 C.

    TUESDAY ... Cloudy for most, some hazy sunshine at times in east, rain edging further into western coastal districts in a moderate southerly flow, lows 14-17 C and highs 22-25 C.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY remain at risk for heavy thunderstorms as a frontal system slowly develops between hot and humid air over Britain and cooler, fresher Atlantic air trying to push into Ireland from the southwest. Details will not be clear for a few days yet but would not be surprised if some locally heavy rainfalls develop in Leinster or east Munster. Temperatures could be as high as 24 C but the more rain or thunderstorms that develop, the closer to 18 C temperatures might settle.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for more of these battleground scenarios to develop as the upper level steering flow remains similar in general, so it could be a case of "rinse and repeat" towards the weekend of 4-5 July and into the following week. There are also some signs of a few warm, dry days in the mix.

    Looking at BRITAIN, the period to Tuesday 29th will be broadly similar to the above but after that, hot and humid air will flood into most parts of England and parts of Wales, allowing temperatures to soar to 28-32 C. At this point I don't think temperatures quite that high will reach Ireland but there is some possibility of it, if the frontal systems are either weak or slower moving than most guidance suggests. Eventually some severe thunderstorms could develop either in eastern Ireland or over the Irish Sea into Wales and southwest England. That would be most likely around 1-2 July at this point and again around 4-5 July.

    My local weather is turning warmer again, Thursday was sunny and near 27 C and the forecast is calling for 32 C on the weekend here, and 40 C in parts of the southern interior valleys of B.C., with 43 C possible in central Washington state. The risk of forest fires will grow as thunderstorms with limited rainfall develop over mountains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 27 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals developing, warm and humid, after some scattered light showers this morning, there will be an increasing risk of more organized showers by afternoon, with heavier rain developing by evening, in moderate southerly winds. Highs 19-22 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain may be heavy for a few hours and will be most persistent after midnight and in the southeast and central counties. Amounts will range from 10 to 20 mm, and this may be welcome in some dry areas. Lows will be mild, 13-15 C. Winds S to SW 40-60 km/hr at times.

    SUNDAY ... Morning showers or thunderstorms may be heavy at times during the early morning hours, then variable cloud with a few more isolated showers developing. Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr and highs 18-21 C. Rather humid but slightly fresher by afternoon and evening.

    MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine east, partly to mostly cloudy west, quite warm and humid. Rain is likely to stay off the west coast but could brush a few outer coastal districts by later in the day. Moderate southeast to south winds, 40 to 60 km/hr, with lows 14-17 C and highs around 22 C.

    TUESDAY ... Cloudy for most, some hazy sunshine at times in east, rain edging further into western coastal districts in a moderate southerly flow, lows 14-17 C and highs 22-25 C. About 3-5 mm rain potential in western counties only. Parts of Britain may begin to warm into the high 20s.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY remain at risk for heavy thunderstorms as a frontal system slowly develops between hot and humid air over Britain and cooler, fresher Atlantic air trying to push into Ireland from the southwest. Details will not be clear for a few days yet but would not be surprised if some locally heavy rainfalls develop in Leinster or east Munster. Temperatures could be as high as 24 C but the more rain or thunderstorms that develop, the closer to 18 C temperatures might settle, at least during the heavier rain. There will probably be a dry slot between one frontal system over the east and an advancing second front over western counties. That's where temperatures might reach the mid-20s in this scenario. Meanwhile it could easily top 30 degrees in parts of England and 24-27 C in Wales into north-central England. By FRIDAY it could become rather showery in general with temperatures falling back to about 18-20 C in Ireland and 22-24 C in Britain. However, the hot and humid air mass won't retreat very far to the east or south at that point and could make one more run at the region.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for another battleground scenario to develop around the weekend of 4-5 July and into the early part of the following week. Low confidence in this outcome at this distance, but the charts we are seeing would suggest occasional heavy rainfalls and temperatures near 20 C.

    The latest guidance for the first half of July suggests rather frequent rainfall and temperatures generally near normal, as the core of the hot and humid air mass is pushed off into central Europe. Spain and southern France would remain hot, but northern France, Holland and Belgium would return to more of a seasonable Atlantic driven pattern. Once again, confidence is not high as these outlooks continue to shift around from run to run.

    What is very easy to predict is that I will be sweating up a storm here as the highs reach the low to mid 30s under mostly sunny skies. Friday was hot enough at 29 C. Isolated thunderstorms are possible here by Sunday. Friday was probably the first day in about two weeks that the highs in parts of the eastern U.S. (especially mid-Atlantic states) failed to reach 30 C. This cooler air is filtering a bit further south before it stalls and loses its contrast with the hot, humid air mass in place over the south central states. While it's hot in most of the desert southwest, it was equally hot in central Washington state on Friday, with highs into the low 40s in places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 28 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Showers will now become confined to a few northern counties except for some isolated outbreaks elsewhere, and clouds should begin to break to partly cloudy skies, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr and highs 18-21 C. Rather humid but slightly fresher by afternoon and evening.

    TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, lows 13-16 C.

    MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine east, partly to mostly cloudy west, quite warm and humid. Rain is likely to stay off the west coast until afternoon but now seems quite likely to cover western Connacht at times by afternoon before spreading into northwest Ulster by evening. Other regions will likely stay dry. Moderate southeast to south winds developing, 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs around 22 C.

    TUESDAY ... Cloudy for most, some hazy sunshine at times in east, patchy light rain edging further into western coastal districts but tending to die out by afternoon, in a moderate southerly flow, lows 14-17 C and highs 22-25 C. About 3-5 mm rain potential from mid-day Monday to late Tuesday in western counties only. Parts of Britain may begin to warm into the high 20s or near 30.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY remain at risk for heavy thunderstorms as a frontal system slowly develops between hot and humid air over Britain and cooler, fresher Atlantic air trying to push into Ireland from the southwest. Details continue to look a bit "weak" compared to potential and don't be surprised if some locally heavy rainfalls develop in Leinster or east Munster. Temperatures could be as high as 24 C but the more rain or thunderstorms that develop, the closer to 18 C temperatures might settle, at least during the heavier rain. There will probably be a dry slot between one frontal system over the east and an advancing second front over western counties. That's where temperatures might reach the mid-20s in this scenario. Meanwhile it could easily top 30 degrees in parts of England and 24-27 C in Wales into north-central England although temperatures will start to drop back to more average values through the day on Thursday. By FRIDAY it could become rather showery in general with temperatures falling back to about 18-20 C in Ireland and 22-24 C in Britain. However, the hot and humid air mass won't retreat very far to the east or south at that point and could make one more run at the region.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for another battleground or frontal wave scenario to develop around the weekend of 4-5 July and into the early part of the following week. Growing confidence in this outcome now, but the charts we are seeing would suggest occasional heavy rainfalls and high temperatures near 20 C.

    Later in July the pattern begins to look somewhat cooler than average by about the middle of the month, as the jet stream sinks into southern or central France, so despite a warm start there is no strong signal of a hot summer developing.

    The same cannot be said for western North America, in this el Nino summer it is no surprise that we are having a very hot season. Under blazing sunshine it was about 32 C here on Saturday (normal values here are 22-24 C), and 44 C in some parts of central Washington state (normal values there are about 29-30). This extreme heat spread into south central B.C. where it reached 40 at several hot spots. Despite all that I was out golfing and I can only say if this had hit last weekend for the U.S. Open, it would have been a lot more than just poor Jason Day passing out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 29 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but with some hazy sunshine at times, warm and humid, with outbreaks of light rain mainly confined to west coast. Even there, amounts only 2-5 mm in most cases. Highs 19-22 C with warmer readings inland due to sea breezes that might bring some fog to coastlines or slightly inland, in a moderate southerly flow.

    TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some mist or fog, remaining quite warm and humid with lows 13-17 C.

    TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and very warm, with coastal fog or low cloud likely but some sunny spells for most central and eastern counties, more overcast in the west with occasional drizzle or light rain. Highs will vary from near 20 C in the west to 25 C inland central and east, 22 C more likely near east coast and 18 C on the south coast.

    WEDNESDAY ... Warm and humid with scattered outbreaks of thundery showers, possibly heavy by afternoon and evening in some parts of Leinster. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C on average, any prolonged sunshine could produce highs to about 26 C but if heavy rain develops temperatures can be expected to fall to 18-20 C at that time.

    THURSDAY ... Continued partly cloudy with scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm, warm and humid, lows 15-17 C and highs 22-24 C.

    FRIDAY ... Frequent showers developing, lows near 16 C and highs 21-23 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 4-5 July could be quite unsettled with more outbreaks of heavy showers or thunderstorms but there could also be some sunny intervals, with temperatures generally in the low 20s. The following week looks quite unsettled at times too, with temperatures remaining either near or a bit above average, in the 20-23 C range. Longer range guidance, with rather low confidence, shows a cooler spell developing around mid-July.

    Most of the above will apply to BRITAIN also, but on Tuesday and Wednesday even warmer temperatures will develop there, peaking around 31 C in some places on Wednesday. There will be some heavy or even severe thunderstorms in some places when the cooler maritime air pushes east and covers Britain later in the week, but then the hot and humid air will try to push back to the west around Friday night or Saturday morning (3-4 July) leading to a possible severe storm outbreak in parts of southern England.

    Across much of eastern North America, the weather has turned cooler with widespread cloud and outbreaks of rain, temperatures only around 20 C, but further west it becomes extremely hot. Some locations in the inland portions of the Pacific Northwest region including southern B.C. had highs above 40 C on Sunday and this will continue for much of the week despite somewhat cooler air pushing inland from the Pacific, which has set off some showers although much of the activity has remained dry apart from a few raindrops reaching the surface. Our local weather was cloudy with that sporadic light shower activity and humid highs near 26 C on Sunday.

    A reminder -- if you find that you have clear skies during any evenings this week, Venus and Jupiter will be making their closest approach in the western sky after sunset each evening. The actual timing for the conjunction is about 1500h on 1st of July but both Tuesday and Wednesday evening will feature a very close pairing for European observers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 30 June, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and very warm, with coastal fog or low cloud likely but some sunny spells for most central and eastern counties, more overcast in the west with occasional drizzle or light rain. Highs will vary from near 20 C in the west to 25 C inland central and east, 22 C more likely near east coast and 18 C on the south coast.

    TONIGHT ... Warm and humid with slight risk of thunderstorms developing in parts of the southeast and east after midnight (this activity could be mostly off the east coast, moving north, stay tuned for updates). Lows 13-17 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and humid with scattered outbreaks of thundery showers, possibly heavy by afternoon and evening in some parts of the midlands and north Leinster. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C on average, any prolonged sunshine could produce highs to about 26 C but if heavy rain develops temperatures can be expected to fall to 18-20 C at that time.

    THURSDAY ... Continued partly cloudy with scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm, warm and still somewhat on the humid side although fresher in most western counties, lows 15-17 C and highs 19-21 C west to 22-24 C east.

    FRIDAY ... Frequent showers developing although mostly confined to west coast counties until evening when they may begin to spread further east, lows 14 to 16 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weekend of 4-5 July could be quite unsettled with more outbreaks of heavy showers or thunderstorms, probably more widespread on Saturday than Sunday, with potential for 15-30 mm rain, but there could also be some sunny intervals, more prolonged on Sunday, with temperatures both days generally in the range of 18 to 21 C. The following week looks quite unsettled at times too, with temperatures remaining either near or a bit above average, in the 20-23 C range. Longer range guidance, with rather low confidence, shows a cooler spell developing around mid-July.

    Most of the above will apply to BRITAIN also, but today and Wednesday even warmer temperatures will develop there, peaking around 31 C in some places around London to Cambridge on Wednesday. There will be some heavy or even severe thunderstorms in some places when the cooler maritime air pushes east and covers Britain later in the week, but then the hot and humid air will try to push back to the west around Friday night or Saturday morning, leading to a possible severe storm outbreak in parts of southern England.

    The very hot weather continues in western regions of NORTH AMERICA although fewer records were set on Monday, and my local conditions were sunny with a high near 30 C. This heat wave is expected to re-intensify during the week. Severe wildfires have been set off by thunderstorms and human carelessness in parts of Washington state and B.C., with some heavy damage in the town of Wenatchee in central WA state.

    (with any clear skies this evening, check out the close conjunction of Jupiter and Venus in the western sky -- full moon occurs early on 2nd of July at 3:20 a.m. summer time, but the moon already looks full here tonight).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Tues 30 June 6 p.m.
    ______________________________

    Extreme heat has developed over France and will continue to spread into southern England overnight and tomorrow. The current temperatures are 37 C at Nantes and 38 or 39 C in many parts of the southwest of France, about 34 in Paris, and 32 even in normally temperate Brittany where a few isolated thunderstorms have developed. Remnants of those are expected to arrive over Wales later tonight. We will track them carefully but at this point most of the guidance suggests that they will stay just east of Ireland with the possible exception of county Down towards sunrise. The more potent source for any thunderstorms in Ireland tomorrow would be an advancing cold front located out to the west of the Bay of Biscay at this point. Those storms could develop over west central counties by late afternoon and head northeast. However, there is a risk of isolated heavy storms further east.

    The main core of the heat is aimed at Britain where highs today were generally about 27 to 30 C in southern regions, and today's considerable warmth in Ireland, for example 25 C at Casement and Phoenix Park currently, one report of 26 in Dublin from a boards weather forum regular, is probably the peak temperature to be expected in Ireland. It may hit similar values in one or two locations tomorrow given enough sunshine.

    However, it will be uncomfortably warm tonight especially in Dublin, temperatures may not drop much below 20 C in the city and not until after midnight. Lows of 14-18 C can be expected in general.

    If you are travelling later today or early tomorrow to either Britain or France, expect to encounter another day of extreme heat, we're thinking that overnight lows in southern England may be as high as 21 C and daytime highs 30-33 C, while in France it could stay above 24 all night and rise back to the mid to high 30s, except for a more active sea breeze zone near the Atlantic coast which should keep places like Nantes closer to 29 C, Brittany about 24 C. This heat will be pushing slowly away from Ireland all day tomorrow, but leaving Ireland in a residual warm air mass between two frontal zones -- the extreme heat eventually will leave all of Britain and the northwest half of France too. But it will try to return to those regions on Friday, at which time, it will start to interact with an Atlantic frontal system approaching Ireland. This may make Saturday quite an active day, and I don't expect to see all issues resolved on that until a bit closer to "show time."

    Meanwhile, I am not being left out of the heat sweepstakes, as it is sunny and heading for 33 C at my location.

    Don't forget, for those who have any breaks in the cloud at about 11 p.m., take a look to your west to see a very close conjunction of Jupiter and Venus. Same deal tomorrow evening, the actual timing of this means both nights are about equally close for viewers in Europe. I saw them last night here and they were already about as close as one lunar diameter. Stay cool and hydrated (especially the latter) . :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 1 July, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    ALERT for possible development of heavy thunderstorms from mid-day to evening hours, watch for updates as the guidance available is not very conclusive and we will have to track this more or less in real time -- I have the feeling that central to north Leinster may be more at risk as the combination of available heat energy and instability looks best there towards afternoon. However, other regions are at some risk as well. Having said that, it may be rather hit and miss.


    TODAY ... Warm and humid for most, especially the eastern half of the country, with outbreaks of showery rain in the west, and possible isolated clusters of heavy thunderstorms both there and in the eastern counties by mid-day or afternoon. Rainfall amounts may prove to be quite variable with some places remaining dry, others at risk of seeing over 20 mm. Highs of about 24 C will be possible in central and eastern counties where the sun makes any prolonged appearances, but temperatures are likely to fall off to near 18 C in any steady rainfall. Sea fog is likely to roll in from south coast at times and it may be rather misty at times near the west coast, probably clearing somewhat by afternoon as humidity levels may drop a little there.

    TONIGHT ... A few heavy showers or thunderstorms may continue in north Leinster and Ulster, otherwise, gradual clearing is likely with fog patches and a somewhat fresher low of about 13 or 14 C, with 9 or 10 C possible in some inland western valleys.

    THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with isolated showers and locally heavy thundery showers possible, highs 19-22 C.

    FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, quite humid with outbreaks of rain spreading into some western counties, heavy at times in Kerry and west Cork, and a gusty southeast to south wind developing, 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

    SATURDAY and SUNDAY are likely to produce breezy, unsettled weather with some intervals of heavy showers but also some dry interludes with a bit of sunshine each day. It will be around 12 C at night and 19 C in the daytime hours, perhaps reaching 20 or 21 in parts of Leinster.

    MONDAY also looks quite unsettled with the risk of some heavy rainfalls and highs near 19 C.

    The further outlook is generally somewhat improved as higher pressure returns to the south, and temperatures may edge back above normal values at times into the low 20s.

    Take note if travelling today to Britain or France that some heavier showers or thunderstorms could develop in places and are already underway in some parts of west-central France. The extreme heat recorded yesterday is slowly being pushed further east so highs will be less extreme in western France but similar in other regions, in fact a bit hotter today than yesterday in some parts of eastern France, and much of southeast England (near 33 C). While Ireland cools under the Atlantic influence at the end of the week, some of this hot and humid air will try to mount a comeback into southeast England and eastern France, and that may bring temperatures up to about 27 C with an outbreak of heavy storms again.

    In North America, hot and humid weather is slowly returning to the eastern states after a few cooler days, but extreme heat is rebuilding over the west. My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and hot with a high near 30 C, but there were intense thunderstorms inland with considerable damage in some places in southern British Columbia. Fires have eased somewhat in Washington state but with the heat rebuilding, the fire risk is extreme.

    Astronomy notes -- full moon tonight at 0320h Irish summer time, and closest approach of Venus and Jupiter occurs today at about 3 p.m. but they won't be visible at that time (although they will be in the sky to the left of the afternoon sun). You'll perhaps get a glimpse of this after sunset in a few places, I was just out admiring the view here, the two planets are now easily closer than one lunar diameter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 2 July, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, these more likely in east-central counties. Warm and still rather humid, highs 19-22 C higher in parts of inland north-central and eastern counties. Risk of some heavy showers or thunderstorms developing by afternoon in parts of Munster, remnants of these spreading further north later. It may become quite foggy along the south coast at times.

    TONIGHT ... Showers dying out, foggy at times, lows 8-11 C.

    FRIDAY ... Some sunshine at first, then increasing cloud, becoming rather breezy (southeast 40-70 km/hr) with heavy showers or periods of rain developing in Munster by late in the day. Foggy near some coasts with highs 18-23 C.

    SATURDAY ... Breezy, frequent showers but some brief sunny breaks by afternoon, moderate south winds veering southwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows about 11 C and highs about 18 C.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers likely, possibly some heavy bursts in parts of the west. Lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

    MONDAY ... Rain or showers, heavy at times, lows near 8 C and highs 15-18 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and rather cool compared to this week, but some slight improvements later in the week.

    Over in BRITAIN, each day is likely to be slightly warmer but Friday could be considerably warmer in eastern England with highs 24-27 C. This brief return of the very warm and humid air will likely set off widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms.

    My local weather on Wednesday (our national holiday) was sunny and hot with highs near 34 C where I was, although closer to 30 C at my home base which is closer to the ocean. Weak sea breezes continue to make it somewhat tolerable around here.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 3 July, 2015

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TODAY ... Some sunshine at first except in parts of Munster, then increasing cloud, becoming rather breezy (southeast 40-70 km/hr) with heavy showers or periods of rain developing in Munster by late in the day. Foggy near some coasts with highs 18-23 C.

    TONIGHT ... Rain will become heavy for a few hours and there could be one or two embedded thunderstorms moving through central and eastern counties around midnight. 10-20 mm of rain is likely. Lows 13-15 C.

    SATURDAY ... Breezy, frequent morning showers but some brief sunny breaks by afternoon with just isolated showers, moderate south winds veering southwest 40-60 km/hr, and highs about 18 C.

    SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers likely, possibly some heavy bursts in parts of the west. Lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. About 5-10 mm rainfalls for most.

    MONDAY ... Rain or showers, heavy at times especially for Munster and south Leinster, with lows near 8 C and highs 15-18 C. Rainfalls 15-30 mm.

    TUESDAY ... Further showers likely, cool and breezy (W 40-60 km/hr), lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, breezy (NW 50-70 km/hr). Lows 5-8 C and highs 15-18 C.

    FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warmer again by end of the week, highs could be into low 20s or even mid 20s at times by the weekend of 11th-12th. This warmer regime appears fairly robust and any slight cooling mid-month may then revert to warmer temperatures. So, if that comes to pass, this coming wet spell will prove to be very useful to many despite the inclement conditions for a few days, as June only averaged 60% of normal rainfalls in Ireland.

    Over in BRITAIN, this developing frontal system tonight will be pulling in remnants of the earlier heat still lingering off to the east, and temperatures could climb into mid to high 20s at times later today, and Saturday morning, with a very warm night (tonight) but then the fronts will push quickly through Britain and drop temperatures there with the risk of some severe storms on Saturday. After that, the sequence will be fairly similar to the forecast above.

    In NORTH AMERICA, eastern regions have turned quite cool again, and there is a lot of smoke haze in central regions from widespread forest fires in northern parts of the Canadian prairie provinces (these fires may burn for weeks in some places, partly because they are in remote areas in some cases). None of that smoke haze is reaching the west coast in the current wind regime, and it remains sunny and hot although with some cloud around overnight. My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a high of 29 C. A strong sea breeze will develop here on Friday which should mean a drop to the low 20s but it will stay hot further inland. Seattle WA had a record high of 34 on Thursday and it was once again above 40 in some inland areas.


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