April 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

Oak Park at 12.2 narrowly edged out Finner and Ballyhaise (which nobody picked anyway) at 12.1. Also close was Mountdillon at 11.9.

With that sort of spread of similar outcomes, I would have been prepared to say 3 points for Oak Park, 2 for the next two (which as mentioned nobody picked) and one for Mountdillon. Instead of that, will give 3 for Oak Park, 2 for any other Leinster pick or Mountdillon, and 1 to everyone else. Con Sensus gets two points for location under the rules, and NormaL gets three as Oak Park is normally one of the warmer locations. As to the closest temperature forecasts, nobody but closest forecast Tazio (12.0) was too cold so that part is fairly easy. These are the points for temperature forecasts, with total points mentioned too. Temperature forecasts have been scored in groups with the general idea being three for each level but ties meant an outcome somewhat more generous than that.

No double points on super-bonus, JPmarn had one superbonus point (for scoring 7+2) and also BLIZZARD7 as well as NormaL (for scoring 6+3).

7 pts _ Tazio 12.0 (+1=8), Tae laidir 12.8 (+1=8), JPmarn 13.1 (+2=9 + 1 = 10).

6 pts _ Mickger844posts 13.9 (+2 =8), BLIZZARD7 14.0 (also NormaL 13.5) (+3 +1 = 10), Bsal and Kindred Spirit 14.0 (both +2 = 8).

5 pts _ Dacogawa 14.1 (+2 = 7), John mac 14.5 (+2 = 7), Joe Public 14.6 (+3 = 8)

4 pts _ Con Sensus 14.8 (+2 = 6), M.T. Cranium 14.9 (+1 = 5), pauldry 15.0 (+2 = 6), DOCARCH 15.1 (+1 = 5).

3 pts _ Rikand and dasa29 both 16.0 (both +2 = 5). Sunflower3 and Artane2002 both 16.2 (both +2 = 5).

2 pts _ waterways 16.4 (+1 = 3), Adam240610 16.6 (+1 = 3), sryanbruen 16.8 (+3 = 5).

1 pt __ MrSkinner 17.2 (+2 = 3), 200motels 17.8 (+3 = 4).

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If either Friday or Saturday's max had been in play, we would all have fallen quite a bit short, so in fact most of us hit our presumed temperatures at some point between Saturday late afternoon and Sunday early morning. Whether that's luck or skill I leave for you to decide.

After two weeks ...

IMT has settled back to 9.4 C, this past week averaged 10.0 which is 1.6 above normal.

MAX 20.5 and MIN -3.2

PRC only 43% of normal, this past week 34% (Oak Park escaped totally dry, Cork was close to normal, all of the week's rainfall pretty much fell on Sunday with exception of a few light showers in the northwest earlier).

SUN now at 116% of normal, with this past week at 138% (826/600).

Full report on the bonus (12.2 Oak Park) in a previous post.

New MAX of 21.6 on Friday at Newport.

The IMT after 24 days was 10.0 (from 9.96) and is likely around 10.1 after today. That may be the high point and the final outcome looks like dropping a bit to around 9.7 perhaps.

Enough rain in the forecast to suggest that 70% of normal may be reached. Some recent daily reports for Shannon appeared erroneous, mistaking the trace designator for 99 mm. I will be reviewing those situations in the final reports.

After four weeks ...

IMT has slumped back to 9.9 (actually 9.94) and will probably finish on 9.8. The fourth week average was 10.9 (1.4 above normal).

MAX has likely finished now at 21.6 and MIN at -3.2. Dub(A) was -1.1 on the morning of the 28th.

PRC was down to just 32% of normal as the week was very dry. Ballyhaise was missing but assuming it to have under 10%, the week averaged just 7% of normal rainfall, most of that at Cork and Mullingar which got some rain, most of the rest had zero or traces. There will probably be enough rain today and tomorrow to reach perhaps 50-60 per cent of normal.

SUN has been quite consistent with this past week at 117% (704/600) and that leaves us close to 120%, probably more like 115% by end of play with these somewhat cloudier days. That does incorporate some uncertainty about missing data earlier for Shannon, will need to check the MS for a more reliable value.

As the first of May falls on Friday, the MS won't appear until at least the 4th (not sure if this is also a bank holiday weekend or if there is such an animal in 2020, the whole year seems to be a bank holiday so far). That means I will probably venture a provisional scoring table to keep your interest until I can check the official values. Don't forget to enter May (April ends tomorrow, I promise).

Provisional scoring for April 2020

It will be several days before I can confirm the provisional values used for this scoring (with the bank holiday, Tuesday 5th will be the likely appearance of the MS.) ... for now, this is how things look, will update the annual scoring when this can be adjusted. For PRC, these are scores without any attempt to apply full minimum progression. This is because I can't be sure how to apply the boost until I see how well Adam's raw score turns out (13+ means reduced boost for the field, which is how these are shown now -- Adam is guaranteed 15 if the PRC is lower than 70%). These scores could be getting a boost if precip is outside the range 53 to 67 per cent. The boost for IMT has been applied as a 3 pt across the board boost. (raw IMT scores are all 3 lower than shown here) -- SUN scores will be adjusted so that part is most subject to change. The working assumption there is 120%.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus (+sb) __ TOTALS


Rikand _________________19 _ 14 _ 18 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 3 _ 2 ____________ 73

sryanbruen _____________ 18 _ 11 _ 20 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 3 ____________ 71

Kindred Spirit ___________ 15 _ 12 _ 17 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 6 _ 2 ____________ 71

Pauldry ________________ 17 _ 20 _ 08 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 4 _ 2 ____________ 69

Artane2002 _____________15 _ 12 _ 20 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 2 ____________ 69

Adam240610 __ (-8) _____ 23 _ 16 _ 12 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 1 ______ 77-8 = 69


Con Sensus _____________17 _ 13 _ 18 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 4 _ 2 ____________ 69


Tazio __________________ 20 _ 04 _ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 ____________ 68

MrSkinner ______________ 19 _ 06 _ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 ____________ 61

John mac _______________18 _ 11 _ 13 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 2 ____________ 61

Jpmarn ________________ 10 _ 09 _ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 61

200 motels ___ (-10) _____ 17 _ 13 _ 20 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 71-10=61

Sunflower3 _____________ 17 _ 14 _ 07 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 2 ____________ 57


Normal ________________ 13 _ 09 _ 15 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 6 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 55


Bsal ___________________ 16 _ 01 _ 13 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 ____________ 52

Dacogawa ______________ 17 _ 15 _ 09 _ 00 _ 03 ___ 5 _ 2 _____________51

M.T. Cranium ____________16 _ 09 _ 15 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 4 _ 1 _____________51

DOCARCH ______________12 _ 05 _ 11 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 4 _ 1 _____________ 50

Tae laidir _______________17 _ 16 _ 02 _ 02 _ 04 ___ 7 _ 1 _____________ 49

mickger844posts ________ 10 _ 00 _ 15 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 2 _____________ 48

waterways ____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 00 _ 15 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 45-1= 44

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ______17 _ 03 _ 09 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 3 _ 1 ____ 47-3= 44

Joe Public ______________ 10 _ 00 _ 13 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 5 _ 3 _____________39

dasa29 ________________ 11 _ 09 _ 03 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 2 _____________38

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As I had speculated, Adam had the highest total before late penalties but a few of you managed to squeeze past after that was applied, all scoring to be confirmed on the 5th. Annual updates added then.

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(actual forecasts and scoring info)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 12th loc'n

Adam240610 __ (-8) _____ 9.4 _ 22.0 _ -4.0 _ 060 _ 130 ___ 16.6 _ Moore park

Tazio __________________ 9.1 _ 20.0 _ -2.7 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 12.0 _ Cork Airport

Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 16.0 _ Johnstown Castle

MrSkinner ______________ 9.0 _ 20.2 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 098 ___ 17.2 _ Johnstown Castle

John mac _______________8.9 _ 22.5 _ -2.5 _ 097 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mount Dillon

sryanbruen _____________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 16.8 _ Oak Park

waterways ____ (-1) _____ 8.8 _ 24.5 _ -3.7 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 16.4 _ Shannon

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ______8.8 _ 23.3 _ -4.3 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park

Sunflower3 _____________ 8.8 _ 22.2 _ -1.9 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park

Pauldry ________________ 8.8 _ 21.6 _ -2.0 _ 083 _ 111 ___ 15.0 _ Phoenix Park

Tae laidir _______________8.8 _ 21.2 _ -1.4 _ 109 _ 090 ___ 12.8 _ Moore Park

200 motels ___ (-10) _____ 8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 17.8 _ Oak Park



Con Sensus _____________8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 109 ___ 14.8 _ Phoenix Park


Dacogawa ______________8.8 _ 21.1 _ -2.1 _ 122 _ 083 ___ 14.1 _ Phoenix Park

M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.7 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 14.9 _ Moorepark

Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Mullingar

Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 118 ___ 14.0 _ Johnstown Castle

Artane2002 _____________8.6 _ 20.8 _ -3.2 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park


Normal ________________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ loc'n points by climatology


DOCARCH ______________8.3 _ 19.1 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 112 ___ 15.1 _ Shannon

dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ Mullingar

Jpmarn ________________ 8.1 _ 19.5 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park

Joe Public ______________ 8.1 _ 19.2 _ -3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 14.6 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ________ 8.1 _ 18.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 13.9 _ Johnstown Castle

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The consensus is average of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 forecasters.

For the location of warmest Easter max, we have this selection (showing what Con Sensus would score if it happens this way):

Phoenix Park (3 pts Con S) ___ 5

Johnstown Castle (3 pts CS) __ 4

Oak Park (2 pts Con S) ______ 4

Moorepark (2 pts Con S) _____ 3

Mullingar (2 pts Con S) ______ 2

Shannon (2 pts Con S) _______2

Cork, Mountdillon __
__ (1 point for Con S) _______ 1 each

and anywhere else would give Con zero points.

Updated annual scoring January to April 2020

The table is still ordered from total scores but now you can check your position in the annual best 10/12 format, since it's early I have posted your best three (of four if you have four). That will continue on until August (7/8) then will jog to 7/9 for September. Ranks for these values are shown at the end of each line in brackets. The table will follow this format until September then will follow the order of best 7/9 with the secondary ranking becoming total score at the end. Also new this month, after your rank overall (first number in the scoring line) you'll see your position last month for an idea of how you're moving against the field.




rank _ FORECASTER ________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr __TOTAL___ Best 3/4 (rank)


01_(01)_ Mrskinner _________86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 ___ 273 ____ 219 (1)

02_(02)_ Kindred Spirit ______61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 ___ 266 ____ 205 (t3)

03_(03) _sryanbruen ________47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 ___ 264 ____ 217 (2)



(04)_(04)___ Con Sensus ____70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 ___ 260 ____ 201 (5)


04_(07)_Artane2002 ________56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 ___ 253 ____ 197 (6)

05_(06)_Jpmarn ___________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 ___ 248 ____ 198 (5)


(t05)_(t03)__ NormaL ______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 ___ 248 ____ 198 (t5)


06_(14)_Rikand ____________68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 ___ 243 ____ 205 (t3)

07_(04)_Dacogawa _________ 73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 ___ 241 ____ 190 (t7)

08_(05)_M.T. Cranium _______69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 ___ 239 ____ 188 (10)

09_(t09)_Sunflower3 ________68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 ___ 235 ____ 185 (11)

10_(08)_DOCARCH _________ 58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 ___ 231 ____ 181 (13)

11_(17) _Adam240610 ______ 62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 ___ 227 ____ 189 (9)

t12_(18) _Pauldry __________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 ___ 226 ____ 190 (t7)

t12_(t09)_mickger844posts ___55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 ___ 226 ____ 178 (14)

14_(t12)_Bsal _____________ 62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 ___ 225 ____ 173 (t17)

15_(16) _john mac _________ 64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 ___ 223 ____ 177 (t15)

16_(11)_Joe Public _________ 70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 ___ 216 ____ 177 (t15)

17_(t12)_Dasa29 ___________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 ___ 211 ____ 173 (t17)

18_(15) _Tae laidir _________ 67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 ___ 213 ____ 165 (19)

19_(19) _BLIZZARD7 ________66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 ___ 193 ____ 157 (20)

20_(20) _200motels _________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 ___ 183 ____ 183 (12)

21_(21) _waterways ________ --- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 ____140 ____ 140 (21)


22_(---)_Tazio _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 ____ 68

23_(22)_JCXBXC ___________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 58

24_(23)_WesternStorm ______ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 54

25_(24)_esposito ___________ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 49

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So MrSkinner holds on to a fairly narrow lead in both contests, with Kindred Spirit second in total points and sryanbruen in second for the best 3/4 measure. Ranks of Normal and Con Sensus are given as if they were participants but anyone with lower ranks is not dropped down relative to them.