FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

After a fairly mild and dry first half of April, things looks like turning slightly more unsettled with a definite cooling trend, and finishing up possibly very cold as we head into the beginning of May. Temperatures gradually lowering day by day over the next 2 weeks and finishing up several degrees below normal around the 1st of May.

We stay relatively dry with a cool easterly over the next week, keeping eastern coastal areas on the cool side.



Around the 24th of April heights begin to rise around Greenland and northern blocking is getting set up, this results in much cooler air beginning to reach Ireland from Scandinavia.



We finish up on May the 1st with a bitterly cold north-east flow with -5 uppers close to us,this would be a real snow maker in the winter, but of course this is teh start of May and exactly what we don't want to see set up as we head towards summer. Typical and beginning to look alot like June 2019. Showers could turn wintry on the hills with this one and daytime temperatures in the single digits widely.

April has mostly been a great month so far, mostly dry, settled and sunny with very little rain. There has been some mild to warm weather, especially in the west. A real change is on the way now, temperatures fall off the cliff from Sunday and into next week with temperatures struggling no higher than single digits in many places.

Temperatures stage a recovery around the 2nd of May but the outlook is much more changeable, this is the wettest run I've seen since early March, could well be an unsettled first 10 days of May with temperatures around average or possibly slightly below at times.



Fingers crossed we see a return to dryer and warmer conditions into the second half of May.

alot of uncertainty over the next two weeks, however it is beginning to look more like the first half of May is going to be very unsettled with no shortage of rain. The much needed dry spell of the past month is coming to a screeching halt this week as bands of rain start crossing the country from Wednesday.

Today's runs shows a period of very wet weather from the 29th of April to the 7th of May. Not as wet after the 7th but remaining unsettled. It may become quite mild or warm at times as very warm air tries to push up from southern Europe, but it will most likely get squeezed over to the SE of England and into Northern Europe.





Low pressure May the 5th could provide some serious rain as this rain will be fueled by the heat from the south and the cold from the Atlantic mixing.

Ireland would narrowly miss out on this surge of heat, which may impact parts of England and gave them a very thundery situation.



We finish FI with Europe warming up very nicely, but Ireland hanging onto the cooler Atlantic conditions with rain at times. Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come for the summer.

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Is this nice weather still showing on the charts today??

The ECM still looks good (but perhaps a touch cooler than what was shown yesterday evening) and the GFS is a bit of a mixed bag. Alot to play for.

US2 wrote: »

Seems the UK could reach 30c earlier than ever before ?

unlikely. They reached 29.4C on the 16th of April 1949 and have gotten close to 33C several times in May over the years.

some very big changes within the charts in just a few days, that's why FI is called Fantasy island for a reason, quite often the extended range stuff doesn't play out especially if it's forecasting the stuff we love such as hot plumes or cold plunges.

The very wet models of recent days have now started trending much dryer, especially over the next week. Temperatures will lift up to the high teens in places over the next week, but no record warmth as what was showing in the ECM a few days ago.

Another big change is a very definite cold plunge in about 9 days time, temperatures fall off the cliff delivery possibly a taste of winter around the 10th of May with uppers crashing as low as -8C on some of the models. A few of the model are also showing potential for some sleet and snow showers with this too over high ground with daytime temperatures as low as 8C and lower during any showers.Places like Scotland could see low level snow at night.



May the 7th looks very pleasant, with light south-easterlies and relatively settled conditions, feeling quite Spring like with warmer temperatures especially in the west, still a bit cool along the east coast.



Temperatures could get close to 20C in some western areas next week and possibly 15C in eastern areas with the onshore breeze keeping much of Leinster several degree's cooler. Should be pleasant with sunshine in most places next Thursday and Friday.



Big change around the 10th/11th of May with a cold plunge from the north-east. This is what we wanted to see all winter and we end up getting it in May.



Many of the models are going colder than this bringing -5C uppers and colder through the country, however the GFS Operational doesn't get as cold as that.

We finish on May the 17th, still with a very cool airflow over the country and temperatures in the low teens at best.



For once I really hope this cold spell does not work out, it's far too late in the year for something this cold. Fingers crossed this one gets shoved off the table fairly quickly.