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Snow/Ice Warning for Ulster : PM 17th/AM 18th, Jan 2018

  • 16-01-2018 7:26am
    #1
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,441 ✭✭✭✭


    The main models continue to weaken storm potential for Wednesday evening and in to Thursday and increase snow potential as the storm system looks to move further south.

    With the reduction in the wind threat comes an increase in the snow risk.

    The storm thread is here

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057829980

    At the moment all of Ulster and possibly northern counties of Leinster are in line for persistent and sometimes heavy snowfall.

    This may yet change further. The ECM, for example, has snow potential even further south taking in more of Leinster and northern Connaught.

    Given we are within the 48 hour timeframe big changes shouldn't be expected but still some uncertainty there.

    For now the focus is Ulster - including Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal.

    This could be disruptive for the province.

    I'd go with 5 - 10 cm - locally more and on high ground. Looks a decent enough event.


«13

Comments

  • #2
    Wine Goddess
    Registered Users Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Kermit I love your enthusiasm for snow! And your knowledge....


  • #3
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Great in Virginia Cavan and often the weather we get is what is forecast for North Leinster. Hopefully get a nice pasting from this


  • #4
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Not downgrading the wind potential for south and central counties but this snow threat is real if the track ends up inland, it simply won't warm up much north of the track of the low and could stay mostly snow in Ulster and high ground in Connacht before, during and after passage of this low.

    If it intensifies and follows this track, very tight gradients would develop, and even more snow potential would exist (5-10 cm sounds about right to me also).


  • #5
    mirrorwall14
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Not downgrading the wind potential for south and central counties but this snow threat is real if the track ends up inland, it simply won't warm up much north of the track of the low and could stay mostly snow in Ulster and high ground in Connacht before, during and after passage of this low.

    If it intensifies and follows this track, very tight gradients would develop, and even more snow potential would exist (5-10 cm sounds about right to me also).

    Any chance it will run south and plaster the midlands as well as the north?


  • #6
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Arome going for high ground in Ulster only

    aromehd-45-42-0_vfc6.png

    WRF and Arpege a bit more optimistic though again mainly higher ground

    nmmuk-45-38-0_uax0.png

    arpegeuk-45-75-0_sen1.png


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  • #7
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,441 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Hirlam - slightly further south with the track.

    hirlamuk-1-27-0.png?16-22

    Guess it will be somewhere in between.


  • #8
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Bodes well potentially for a few more of us. HIRLAM fairly nailed today's events. Logic would suggest based of its precip frame above that any more than 50km further south on the morning runs and we could be talking disruption in a lot of Leinster come Thursday morning.

    I'm a bit confused though, uppers from HIRLAM for the same frame would suggest far too warm?

    hirlamuk-16-27-0.png?16-22


  • #9
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Those in Ulster and Leinster should be keeping a very close eye on this.


  • #10
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Sligos right on the border for this.

    Interesting ...again...this great Winter


  • #11
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,635 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Bodes well potentially for a few more of us. HIRLAM fairly nailed today's events. Logic would suggest based of its precip frame above that any more than 50km further south on the morning runs and we could be talking disruption in a lot of Leinster come Thursday morning.

    I'm a bit confused though, uppers from HIRLAM for the same frame would suggest far too warm?

    hirlamuk-16-27-0.png?16-22

    not necessarily. you can get snow with such uppers when you have cold air in place, provided the wet bulb temperature is low enough(0.6) you sometimes can even get snow at 4c. indeed some of the greatest frontal snow events in Ireland have come about in marginal situations. i would like to think given the winter we have had, we will get one epic countrywide frontal snow event- it has to happen at some stage


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  • #12
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Arome is generally very good for snow predictions from what I've seen in the brief time I've used it, it forecast the frontal snow events last month almost perfectly. For some reason though it didn't pick up todays event at all, it showed very few showers over the country all day (not even rain showers) and no snow accumulation at all. Must be an issue with whatever global model its getting its input conditions from for the Atlantic though still bizarre it was so far off

    This is what its showing tomorrow, snow anywhere above approx 150-200m to start with and I assume the orange cross hatching is sleet

    aromehd-1-28-0_gxy0.png

    Before eventually transitioning to snow for most areas in north Ulster

    aromehd-1-30-0_duo8.png


  • #13
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Orange = hail or graupel "niege roulee" literally round snow
    White = snow or sleet "niege verglacante" - literally icy rain


  • #14
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,635 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    So North Mayo, parts of Sligo, Cavan could get a blizzard tomorrow night :D

    I bet though it will end up further north if it intensifies quickly while engaging the jet stream and fionn's energy.


  • #15
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,441 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This thread probably needs an orange warning in my opinion. This could be a very disruptive event.

    Can a mod please add the following counties to the OP?

    The counties are Antrim, Armagh, Cavan, Louth, Sligo, Leitrim, Meath (North), Tyrone, Donegal, Derry, Fermanagh, Down, Monaghan, Roscommon.

    Blizzard like conditions are highly likely at times.

    Also high ground in Wicklow will be appalling - avoid.

    Duration is 6 - 9 hours from night fall tonight.


  • #16
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    00z guidance so far not much change, if anything it has nudged north a few miles on the GFS and Arpege, about the same on GEM. Track still close to border of NI and ROI.

    Periods of snow rather than a blizzard perhaps, for inland Ulster. We should get a pretty big signal when it passes the M6 buoy around 17-18z.


  • #17
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    Thanks Kermit for your work this week. Got a good dump yesterday. Slight thawing this am but nice to see. Just wondering about this event. My job like many here is extremely weather and safety related and coincides unfortunately with the onset of this event. Has there been increaesed confidence in this over night ? Many thanks again.


  • #18
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,441 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    justy182 wrote: »
    Thanks Kermit for your work this week. Got a good dump yesterday. Slight thawing this am but nice to see. Just wondering about this event. My job like many here is extremely weather and safety related and coincides unfortunately with the onset of this event. Has there been increaesed confidence in this over night ? Many thanks again.

    No problem. Yes there is increased confidence.

    It's not uniform across the board though. It may be the case southeast coasts of the north may see mixed conditions. Generally near coasts snow is likely to be diluted. Get any way inland though (Newry in your case) and the risk of snow increases dramatically.

    My advice would be keep up to date and be prepared. No need for concern, however. It's short lived and over night.

    Disruption likely to be Thursday morning rush hour after snow has passed.

    Hope that helps. It's difficult to be exact at the best of times in a mesoscale sense (and the variables with your location).

    I'd say you would be right to be prepared for snow.


  • #19
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    That's great K. Thanks for that.


  • #20
    RazorT
    Registered Users Posts: 45 ✭RazorT


    ...


  • #21
    glossy
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭glossy


    Yep another good call KdF . I remember years ago you nailed the timing of the big snow that was going to hit D15 .


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  • #22
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,500 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Met Eireann's model, which didn't perform all that well yesterday, but still:

    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/953535170489081856


  • #23
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Looking good for the northern half of the country alright.

    Why are there two threads on the same storm? This snow is directly related to Georgina so shouldn't it be in the same thread?


  • #24
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Another few pushes south on the charts today please :D


  • #25
    Malayalam
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭Malayalam


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Looking good for the northern half of the country alright.

    Why are there two threads on the same storm? This snow is directly related to Georgina so shouldn't it be in the same thread?

    Would be handy alright.
    Anyways, we got the Greenland Express, several inches of it, can't get the car down the hill. We got a good deal of wind last night also. Thawing now with sleety rain. Looks like we are maybe gonna get this Georgina too with her coat tails full of snow - blizzards maybe,it seems :(, so feck that, my dental appointment looks like it is down the Swannee.... (Sorry, normally I am a snow fan)


  • #26
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    the province of Ulster and North leinster will see snow


  • #27
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    pauldry wrote: »
    the province of Ulster and North leinster will see snow

    Where exactly is north Leinster


  • #28
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,504 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Where exactly is north Leinster

    Em.... Longford, Louth, Meath and Westmeath

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #29
    piplip87
    Registered Users Posts: 2,102 ✭✭✭piplip87


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Where exactly is north Leinster

    Louth, North Meath, North Longford


  • #30
    Lumi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Mod Note

    Off topic attempts to derail the thread have been deleted
    If you want to debate whether north Leinster is in Ireland or not, take it to PM...


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  • #31
    sjb25
    Registered Users Posts: 3,375 ✭✭✭sjb25


    coming into the weather forum during these events calm down people


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