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June 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

2

Comments

  • #32
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T, I'll keep my days the same for bonus qyestion but can I change max hours of sunshine to 15.3 hours. Thanks.


  • #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunshine adjustment available to end of today, folks. After that we go with what you said.


  • #34
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    4.3hours on 4th the max so far for month.

    Just for statistical purposes :D


  • #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week of June ...

    IMT on 13.4 C which is 0.6 above normal for the period.

    MAX and MIN have not been tracked by me at all, hoping for more obvious candidates later.

    PRC at 44% of normal, without Valentia it would be closer to 30% and some places have been almost dry.

    SUN is at 77.3% (464/600) although two Dublin locations are running above normal and the rest quite cloudy so far.

    BONUS -- no action at all yet.

    OUTLOOK -- GFS continues to suggest one warm week and one cooler week in the next fortnight, some other guidance goes more for warm continuing to be dominant. The warm to cold scenario would probably be accompanied by a return to wetter patterns than we'll see this coming week where 25% of normal rainfall might be about the limit for the grid, 50% west to near zero east. Sunshine may pick up slightly although a rather cloudy flow persists.


  • #36
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Think there was 5.4hours of sun in Belmullet last Saturday but maybe this will be beaten this Saturday.

    Hard to see to many sunny days in Belmullet in the coming 7 to 10 days apart from maybe Friday and Saturday


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  • #37
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The one good thing about the sunshine situation is that there probably hasn't been any more sunshine at Malin Head than at Belmullet so that the last-minute change of location isn't having much effect on the outcome.


  • #38
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Hmm I don't know where I was going with my 9 days of 10+ hours of sunshine!

    In fairness it has been much nicer in Dublin so I think I was feeling very optimistic when I was posting my predictions for this month.


  • #39
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yup could end up very low.

    Southwesterly airflow killing it along the West and North

    12.3hours sunshine in Belmullet so far in June. Just 30% of normal


  • #40
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?


  • #41
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?

    Yea I think it will hit 23 today. Weather has been unreal in Dublin nearly 20 degrees everyday, but I know the rest of country has not been as lucky.


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  • #42
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    appledrop wrote: »
    Yea I think it will hit 23 today. Weather has been unreal in Dublin nearly 20 degrees everyday, but I know the rest of country has not been as lucky.

    Today is a bit of a disappointment, while it is very warm considering the cloud and wind, the sun is really struggling to get going. We will need a big improvment in the afternoon like yesterday to see temperatures getting any higher than 21 or 22C. We may have to wait for Saturday and Sunday to see the warmest temperatures of the year.


  • #43
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes after the next few days that appears to be it regarding temperatures around 25c for June...but not set in stone. Could just be 7 days or so of cooler weather


  • #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    There's a bit of a 2007 look to the model run this morning, hope it doesn't go that bad, but towards the end of the GFS run it gets quite wet. I don't trust early June warmth, never seems to correlate well with good summers.


  • #45
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?

    22.5 again on 10th at Phoenix Park.

    Hopefully we are in for a scorcher on Sunday all over the country and max will be beaten.


  • #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I have no clue what MIN is at this point, think I saw a 5 point something in the midlands one day this month. I can't remember a time when I had to wait for the MS to find out a MAX or MIN but may have to do that this month if no obvious candidates show up.


  • #47
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Still no sunny day and Belmullet and we are nearly halfway through the month. Tomorrow probably cloudy too in downgraded weekend scorcher for the West. It will hardly be zero days but remarkable dull. Still if a thundery shower regime sets up that would be best for West and Northwest coasts and we'd hear those in Munster and Leinster complain of the rain


  • #48
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New Max of 25.7 at Phoenix Park today according to twitter account of Met Eireann.


  • #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Congrats to DOCARCH, 200motels and john mac if that holds up ... which it could. Tuesday threatens to be almost as warm in the southeast. After that, not too many obvious chances.

    We have at least passed our lowest forecast which was 24.0. A lot of the higher ones are going to be stranded above the high tide line.


  • #50
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    I see Phoenix Park has be adjusted to a max. of 25,6c for yesterday.


  • #51
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Prob the highest for a while maybe the whole month but tentative signals of some warmer weather towards the end of June


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  • #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT now on 14.5, the second week rather warm at 15.6 (2.2 above normal).

    MAX 25.6 C and MIN ??

    PRC at 43% with the second week at 42% of normal (near normal west, dry east).

    SUN now at 72% with the second week rather cloudy at 66% (397/600).

    BONUS is a big fat zero so far.

    The current GFS run to end of June shows mostly near normal temperatures, if slightly cool at times, rather wet but possibly not quite enough to move the needle past 100% eventually, and staying rather dull for June. I don't see very much chance of getting even to the minimum number of days forecast for 9.5h sunshine at Belmullet (as I said before the one good thing is, Malin Head would be doing about the same).

    If there are no days above 9.5h then the date points will be determined from the date of the actual maximum.


  • #53
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T there is a min of 3.8 for 15th at Mt Dillion.

    I'd say that could be lowest so far although haven't really been watching min.

    I don't mind if you change the station for sunshine to Dublin Airport, I might get at least a point or two then;-)


  • #54
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A few sunshine and showers days in the outlook period so Belmullet would get to 7 or 8 hours on at least one of these. Maybe everyone there has torches now.


  • #55
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Belmullet off the mark yesterday 10.2hours 16th June


  • #56
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    pauldry wrote: »
    Belmullet off the mark yesterday 10.2hours 16th June

    Phew finally, only 8 more days needed for me!


  • #57
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tonight is new MIN night🌙


  • #58
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    pauldry wrote: »
    Tonight is new MIN night🌙

    Spot on Pauldry, Met Eireann reporting 2 degrees at Mt Dillion at 5am.

    We will get official stats tomorrow.


  • #59
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,789 ✭✭✭appledrop


    So we have a bit of an issue with yesterday stats with some stations including MT Dillion recorded as N/A.

    Hopefully it will be rectified later.

    We do have a min of 2.1 though for Athenry.

    Edited: It's fixed our new min is 1.8 on 18th Mt. Dillion.


  • #60
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Joe Public, Bsal and DOCARCH all had 1.8 as their MIN ... looking good. Quite a few others between 1.4 and 2.2 for a big old pointsfest that may be less of a thing for MAX.


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  • #61
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,107 ✭✭✭John mac


    could be close to 15 hours sunshine today, :eek:


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