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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

135

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    In like a lamb and out like a lamb


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    As one poster said above, and it's the way I was told growing up, March will always do one or the other. If it comes in like a lion then it will end like a lamb and if it starts out like a lamb it will go out like a lion.

    That's it.
    "March many-weathers"
    If you get either very nice or very wild at the start of March the weather basically balances itself out by end March/early April.

    So after the really benign start to March, it's no surprise to see wintery stuff in the charts for next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    pauldry wrote: »
    In like a lamb and out like a lamb

    My lambs ain't too keen either on today's muck or the muck that's in the forecast:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    My lambs ain't too keen either on today's muck or the muck that's in the forecast:eek:

    Your lambs have more to worry about than weather !!!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Wow! If this comes to fruition it’ll be Narnia for some of us!! Let’s hope so!

    DKyGcpI.png

    Stays for more than 24 hours too.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Lets hope not
    Thats Rancid
    The ECM keeps that -10 well out to the northwest and diverts the flow in from the northeast
    A lot of mountain snow showers for the wicklow and Dublin mountains and cold rain for the rest of the East
    Dryer in that scenario further north and west
    Absolute misery below 300 metres


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Probably wrong forum but fingers crossed this doesn't happen! Most farmers in Wicklow will have a majority of lambs out at that stage. Young lambs don't do well in cold and wet weather never mind heavy snow.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I think if the ECM came off.. temps would definitely be sufficient for snow, even out to sea.

    We managed sea level snow here on Friday and Friday evening with -6/-7c 850hPa’s and that’s with a Polar Maritime sourced airmass. Others said that it would only snow at altitude - not true.

    This airmass would be from the Arctic, and would have a lower Mixing Ratio, therefore lower dew points.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    GFS. Extremely low thickness values and a North American style cold front. It would be quite unique and exciting to experience.

    -12c at 850hPa, so no higher than 3c Max at the surface in sunshine.

    ZI72XFA.png

    oz7RpJL.png

    About 512 decametres on the east coast of NI

    Z1r9h0d.png

    7zI1oqs.png

    Lasts until Wednesday

    aKGL4ak.png

    Hopefully this comes to fruition. I can’t imagine temps exceeding 2 or 3c even in sunshine, as the freezing level would be about 300 metres max.

    In any showers, the air temperature would be brought down to about -1c or -2c.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭compsys


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Haven't seen the charts but cold, wet and windy is a safe bet.
    "In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion" is surely the most accurate of all the weather-lore sayings.
    Only remember one or two exceptional years where March didn't play out that way.
    It was always in like a lamb, out like a lion

    A two-second Google will tell you it's: 'in like a lion, out like a lamb' ;)

    Which makes complete sense given the usual weather patterns as we approach mid spring.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    compsys wrote: »
    A two-second Google will tell you it's: 'in like a lion, out like a lamb' ;)

    Which makes complete sense given the usual weather patterns as we approach mid spring.

    As coillsaille and several others above have said;
    The saying goes both ways.
    Google is not always right ;)


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    arctictree wrote: »
    Probably wrong forum but fingers crossed this doesn't happen! Most farmers in Wicklow will have a majority of lambs out at that stage. Young lambs don't do well in cold and wet weather never mind heavy snow.

    So true
    I wouldnt discount the GFS version entirely,somethings brewing,albeit brief
    An in the middle blend is possible so at this stage Snow can't be ruled out (or in) at lower levels
    It all depends on any diversion/route the cold pool takes in,as to the where


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    I won't worry about covering that polytunnel for another few days so...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    GFS. Extremely low thickness values and a North American style cold front. It would be quite unique and exciting to experience.

    -12c at 850hPa, so no higher than 3c Max at the surface in sunshine.

    ZI72XFA.png

    oz7RpJL.png

    About 512 decametres on the east coast of NI

    Z1r9h0d.png

    7zI1oqs.png

    Lasts until Wednesday

    aKGL4ak.png

    Hopefully this comes to fruition. I can’t imagine temps exceeding 2 or 3c even in sunshine, as the freezing level would be about 300 metres max.

    In any showers, the air temperature would be brought down to about -1c or -2c.

    GFS 18z still has this event in place from the evening of the 4th April.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,601 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Jekyll and Hyde look to the models in that next week looks like a taste of summer followed by a plunge back into winter!!


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Hi all, I was sent this link,

    Looks like a huge drop in temps, very cold possible -10!



    mPKSEND.png


    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?charthour=0&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na-region&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭highdef



    Looks like a huge drop in temps, very cold possible -10!

    Not at sea level or anywhere in the country that anyone lives at. You're just being sensationalist.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looks like High will be close enough to send that cold to the East.

    Just moderated cold 7 or 8c


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    highdef wrote: »
    Not at sea level or anywhere in the country that anyone lives at. You're just being sensationalist.

    Or perhaps they are just referencing the 850s which are indeed down to -10 on their chart OR they have misinterpreted 850s as surface temperatures which is extremely common with folk unfamiliar with charts.


    We all start somewhere so maybe it would go a long way to not shoot someone down for participating on the forum?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models still very much trending cold from around next weekend, and currently showing Sunday as the beginning of the coldest weather, ECM carries on out past Thurs, GFS a bit shorter. GFS showing it a bit colder then the ECM at this stage ,as in the chart irishfreeview posted above. GEM and ICON also very much on board and showing similar 850 hPa temps ( 1.5km altitude approx ) as the GFS. ECM showing a new feature by throwing a LP into the mix and current charts showing it very wintry but the finer details are chopping and changing run to run.

    Currently showing daytime temps perhaps something like 4 to 8C or so. ECM does show some very wintry days with large parts of the country lower then this especially the day the Lp moves close to Ireland with -4, -5 850 hPa Temps , showing low level snow accumulations also . But this is out at the end of the run and might not even feature on the next couple of runs, Usually the temperatures moderate somewhat closer to the time and with a LP there is often a lot of mixing going on so the potential often gets watered down , Meteorologically very interesting though.


    lQ9yxxR.gif


    OxWxqcm.gif


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    18z gfs still shows -11/-12c 850hPa for next Monday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    Need to put the BBQ away on Sunday so


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Even got a temperature of 2c a couple of years ago in April during day. It snowed but after the shower immediately melted as sun too strong now for any of this nonsense. Would need to be -11 or -12c to be exciting.

    I want heat now!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    pauldry wrote: »
    Even got a temperature of 2c a couple of years ago in April during day. It snowed but after the shower immediately melted as sun too strong now for any of this nonsense. Would need to be -11 or -12c to be exciting.

    I want heat now!!
    Same,need some Vit-D on my bones :cool:


  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    The sun is as hot now as early September. Was out walking about 2 weeks ago when the temperature was 12°, but it was sunny. A guy walking past me asked me was I “too hot in that”. He meant my coat (which is light).

    I told him it was 12 degrees. He was right though and I took it off a few minutes later.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    So, looking at the GFS model very little has changed from earlier in the week. Here is a summary of the synoptic situation for this cold event.

    The cold event actually starts midday Sunday the 4th April (not the 5th as earlier discussed), with a sharp cold Front:

    rPJVCSw.png

    850hPa temperatures fall to -8c by early afternoon:

    Sw6a4qa.png

    By evening they are at -11c over Ulster:

    3mf5kK4.png

    And later the Eastern and Central swathes of the island:

    1GnuKlf.png

    850hPa temps warm up to -9c over Ulster and -7c/-8c elsewhere on the 5th. This is still productive for snow.

    7QMKqGy.png

    f0vv5I4.png

    Cold Spell ends Midday Tuesday.

    This airmass is very cold:

    Theta E Values (require 10 for guaranteed snow) are as low as the easterly event at +5:

    mWUx1UL.png

    Freezing Level below 400 metres in Ulster by Sunday afternoon:
    qrw4zSZ.png

    Even lower by evening:
    qqunQrM.png

    Moderately low on Monday daylight hours:
    xCLi2dc.png

    This airmass is very cold, I don't see any marginality whatsoever. It is sourced from the Arctic and has very low freezing levels with low Theta e. Definitely all parameters are met for snow to fall down to the surface. However, this is all subject to change and could end up just being cold and sunny.

    It is on par with the easterly we had, if not colder synoptically. What will be interesting is the cold front, it looks as though temps drop from 10c to as low as 2c within an hour.

    xAoDWM9.png
    dlYvmLb.png

    There could be a few centimetres at low levels on Sunday night/Monday night in NW and N parts if showers get going. Again this is all subject to change and is an overview of the situation as predicated at this moment in time.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    pauldry wrote: »
    Even got a temperature of 2c a couple of years ago in April during day. It snowed but after the shower immediately melted as sun too strong now for any of this nonsense. Would need to be -11 or -12c to be exciting.

    I want heat now!!

    That is what the 850hPa temps are showing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    The sun is as hot now as early September. Was out walking about 2 weeks ago when the temperature was 12°, but it was sunny. A guy walking past me asked me was I “too hot in that”. He meant my coat (which is light).

    I told him it was 12 degrees. He was right though and I took it off a few minutes later.

    The air isn't as hot though as the land and seas are still relatively cool. If this were September it would be baking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭External Association


    We were discussing March and the lion/lamb quotations.

    Here's an old one. Today is one of the 'borrowed' days. March borrows a couple of days from April and April from March. Next Monday Tuesday will be two of April's borrowed days from March.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    That is what the 850hPa temps are showing.

    I mean the air temperatures so this is just freezing boredom then. Heating Bills etc. Hope the cold stays off for most of Easter Sunday. Wev an Easter egg hunt planned with kids


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