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Summer 2019 - General Discussion

  • 28-05-2019 12:38pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Ah... Summer 2019. Now what will you bring? Will you be a 2012? Will you be a 1995? Will you be a 2005? Will you be a 1985? Well if we knew, there'd be no fun in that!

    To start off this thread, I will be giving my final analogues for Summer 2019 and these will be considered for the forecast that I will do very shortly. Unlike previous analogues, I have made strict scoring for these ones because so many years have appeared for 5 or more elements so years must have at least 8 or more elements to be considered for these analogues.

    Out of these years, there is Summer 1995, Summer 1990, Summer 2017, Summer 1989 and Summer 1997. Summer 1995 was the highest scoring year with a total of 11 elements.

    The June 2019 analogue I have generated using the years above shows below average heights over much of Europe and going through the UK/Ireland with above average heights from eastern Greenland over towards Scandinavia. This looks like a cool and unsettled setup. Yes, there's a Scandi High which could threaten warmer easterly or southeasterly winds and with the below average heights could result in some thundery moments. However, the below average heights are well in on Ireland and with blocking to the north, this only leaves us pulling in a cool west to northwesterly flow.

    vHNnzFn.png

    The July 2019 analogue does a complete flip on June with a very strong signal for above average heights to sit over Ireland. The jet stream is being pushed to the north with below average heights parked over Greenland. This looks like a very warm and dry scenario, maybe even hot. Wind direction would be variable. Looks similar to July 2013.

    VbkcuYp.png

    The August 2019 analogue looks similar to July with above average heights ridging through Ireland but its centre is a bit further eastwards, allowing the air to come from a southeasterly direction. The jet stream looks a bit closer to Ireland which could threaten relatively cloudier and wetter conditions to the northwest but overall, looks like another dry and very warm scenario, maybe even hot again. Would result in the hottest August since at least 2003 I would have thought, though is that really saying much?

    sns6Sr8.png

    The Summer 2019 analogue (for the Summer as a whole) looks anticyclonic with above average heights well in truly over Ireland indicative of high pressure, despite a cool and unsettled June.

    nTUZPsk.png

    Do I think the analogues have got it right though? Find out shortly.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    So going by the above analogues, you would think Summer 2019 will be warmer and drier than average after a mixed June. As high pressure would be a strong influence with temperatures above average through July and August, there would be some concerns of returning to drought conditions.

    Do I think highly of these analogues? Kind of yes. The June analogue has some similarities to the outlook for early June 2019 in the medium range right now, as the -NAO is not expected to go away any time soon making it difficult for warmer conditions to occur especially for Ireland. The most recent cooler than average June was 2015 so I think we're due one. I think July has a fair chance of verifying with warmer and drier conditions. Consecutive warm or hot Julys historically aren't too unusual - like 1975/76, 1983/84, 1989-91, 1995/96, 2005/06, 2013/14. I think August has a good chance of verifying too provided the atmosphere remains stable and something unique or a disturbance does not occur, like a sudden change in ENSO or the North Atlantic SST profile intensifying to favour -NAO for example. This is the same with July to some extent too.

    Models are all extremely mixed for Summer 2019 so they offer very little help for the forecast.

    There is almost a tripole developed through May in the North Atlantic which is an important indicator for Winter, not so much for Summer. But I wonder if this could have an impact on the Summer as it favours -NAO which in Summer usually results in cool and wet conditions (not always as positioning of blocking differs every time). The infamous Summers from 2007 to 2012 all had -NAO, although only one year had a visible tripole in the North Atlantic during May - 2010. In Spring 2018, a horseshoe shape of cold SST anomalies had developed in the North Atlantic Ocean which was theorised to increase the chance of a strong Azores High through Summer 2018 and thus increase the risk of a hot season. This was indeed the case and there was record breaking +NAO, unprecedented even in recorded history. However, after researching for Summer 2019 and using the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic through May 2019, I'm not so sure on this theory as Mays 1992 and 1993 had a very similar profile (as did May 1976 which I used as a primary baseline for Summer 2018) to May 2018. I could not find a great match to May 2019 in the archive in terms of North Atlantic SSTs but closest matches I could get were May 1954, May 1980, May 1995, May 1997, May 2002, May 2003 and May 2004. Quite a mix of summers here! Summer 1954, 1980 and 2002 were all very dull and the latter was relatively warm (due to August, whilst June and July were quite cool) and wet. Summer 1997 had a poor June, a mild/warm and mostly dry July, a hot and exceptionally wet August in the south. Summer 2003 had a hot August - June and July were also warm but thundery. Summer 2004 had a warm June, cool and unsettled July and a very warm but wet August. I don't think I need to say Summer 1995 which was a drought summer. Notice that 5 of the 7 years here had warm or hot Augusts whilst two (1995 and 2003) were very dry and two (1997 and 2004) were very wet, the other (2002) was quite dry but not exceptionally so. In contrast, Summers 1954 and 1980 were among the poorest of the 20th century.

    ENSO is expected to neutralise this summer which in theory should have little impact but sudden changes in oceanic or atmospheric behaviour could give major impacts on the season especially later, and this forecast could go as a bust.

    So, overall I am going to go for a warmer than average summer but no 2018. The only way I can see us getting close to or beating 2018 would be if my analogue charts for July and August were to verify exactly as shown above which especially for July are extreme scenarios so unlikely. I think the summer will get off to a slow start but improve as the season goes on, compared to Summer 2018 which started off very high and got more and more benign. It's not too often that a very warm/dry July AND August occur simultaneously (for example, 1955, 1976, 1983, 1990, 1995) in Ireland but I think 2019 has a chance.

    To summarise month by month:

    June - A relatively cool and unsettled month but no significant deviations from average.

    July - A warmer than average month with the potential for some very warm weather. Generally anticyclonic.

    August - Much warmer than average but the ongoing risk of an unstable atmosphere resulting in variable rainfall.

    As always, long range forecasting is unreliable and not to be taken seriously so this forecast is just for fun. Thanks for reading. We'll see how she goes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Happy summer all!

    Welcome whatever the weather.. season of growth and beauty and exuberance.

    Took the cats ( or vice versa) down the lane for the first time for three days. My old 15 year old actually ran! The wild flowers are a glory now. Just needed water. Berry blossoms too.

    A season of burgeoning promise.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Happy summer all!

    Welcome whatever the weather.. season of growth and beauty and exuberance.

    Took the cats ( or vice versa) down the lane for the first time for three days. My old 15 year old actually ran! The wild flowers are a glory now. Just needed water. Berry blossoms too.

    A season of burgeoning promise.

    Glorious morning in south Tipp to welcome summer.


    Translation it’s 12 degrees overcast and lashing rain currently.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A lot more rain in the SE than the patchy rain met eireann were forecasting. Cloudy but dry here in Castlebar. Overall , miserable June 1st.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭HighLine


    A lot more rain in the SE than the patchy rain met eireann were forecasting. Cloudy but dry here in Castlebar. Overall , miserable June 1st.

    The precipitation looks heavy on the radar but it is only light here in Wicklow. Hopefully should clear in a few hours anyway.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,211 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Little spit of rain this morning.

    News of lows of 9/10 degrees at the start of June is seriously depressing


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Friends away on long weekend breaks, showing blue skies and Summer in both London and Amsterdam. Meanwhile here in Ireland our first day of summer, it's spitting drizzle and 13C.

    The forecast for the next 2 weeks is grim, but hopefully luck comes our way in July and August. If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

    IF July and August end up being decent, then the very poor May and what looks like a terrible June will be forgiven.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Friends away on long weekend breaks, showing blue skies and Summer in both London and Amsterdam. Meanwhile here in Ireland our first day of summer, it's spitting drizzle and 13C.

    The forecast for the next 2 weeks is grim, but hopefully luck comes our way in July and August. If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

    IF July and August end up being decent, then the very poor May and what looks like a terrible June will be forgiven.

    Exactly totally agree. Looking at the satellite this morning though is very painful.
    Clear blue skies from the tip of southern Spain to the tip of Northern France.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

    Lucky you. Have my Leaving Cert exams starting this Wednesday and won't be going anywhere on holiday this summer. If I catch a warm spell in July or August, I'm hoping to go to the west.

    Trying to get a holiday to the Alps or Iceland (for northern lights) next winter.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This chart sums up what looks like will be the pattern for the forseeable future this June. Looks like a fantastic June for continental Europe and the south-east UK won't do too badly either. We seem to be stuck under this non ending low pressure to our north-west for the next 2 to 3 weeks.

    GFSOPEU06_198_1.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Lucky you. Have my Leaving Cert exams starting this Wednesday and won't be going anywhere on holiday this summer. If I catch a warm spell in July or August, I'm hoping to go to the west.

    Trying to get a holiday to the Alps or Iceland (for northern lights) next winter.

    I reckon you'll be one of the very few leaving cert years to experience crap weather for the leaving cert. A hot spell during Leaving Cert is nearly always certain most years!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I reckon you'll be one of the very few leaving cert years to experience crap weather for the leaving cert. A hot spell during Leaving Cert is nearly always certain most years!

    Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!

    you definitely got lucky both years, nothing worse than being stuck in an exam hall for the day and it's 25C+ outside. It was like that for me for both junior and leaving cert. At least with rubbish weather it's not as bad and you can concentrate on your work more.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    We're not having a summer, we always pay for the good one with a bad 'un.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    So with my leaving cert also starting on Wednesday, I'm not complaining about the crap weather incoming :p

    Currently nice enough with sunny spells and high cloud in West cork, was wet during the night though. Warm in the sun aswell


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Unexpectedly lovely day in the west
    Only downside is I’m very hungover and now have no excuse not to cut the lawn


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Glorious day.. sunny and an invigorating beeeze and my eyes are streaming now... ah well! my plants are amazing now even with the few days of rain, So all is grand west mayo offshore eden


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,211 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Out of nowhere the sun is out now in Dublin.. feeling warm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    2013 and 2018 were front end summers like it was good early but disappointing later on in August. Are we in for a backend Summer this year. It was quite a while since we had a good August.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Not too bad of a day now with light enough winds.

    The perfume from the cordyline flowers is intoxicating today.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    After turning foggy here on the west cork coast now with a bit of s chill in the air


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!

    Thankfully I escaped all the awful weather in June. I remember there was a brilliant spell of weather at the end of May 2016 lasting until the start of June with unbroken sunny skies apart from a cloudy start on the 1st of June. I went on holidays on the 4th and it was cloudy in Dublin (the end of the spell?). Then if I remember correctly, I think I read here about thunderstorms in Ireland around the 6th or 7th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Thankfully I escaped all the awful weather in June. I remember there was a brilliant spell of weather at the end of May 2016 lasting until the start of June with unbroken sunny skies apart from a cloudy start on the 1st of June. I went on holidays on the 4th and it was cloudy in Dublin (the end of the spell?). Then if I remember correctly, I think I read here about thunderstorms in Ireland around the 6th or 7th.

    Yeah, had some lightning flashes on night of the 6th June 2016 - last I had spotted here until 27th May 2018. Was a disappointing spell for Dublin to be honest. 28th to 31st May were very good though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,812 ✭✭✭acequion


    Miserable first day of summer but take heart people! For personal reasons I vividly remember this day, June 1st in 1995 and it was absolute shyte. Grey and chilly and every bit as depressing as today and we all know what happened next :pac::pac:

    I'd also like to wish the very best of luck to both syranbruen and SleetAndSnow in their LC. A major event and hugely important exam but those two sound like they'll fly it.:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Knock airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 40 knots tomorrow evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 91 ✭✭Munsterman12


    When will our summer start? Bad may and look bad for the next 2 weeks!


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,024 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    When will our summer start? Bad may and look bad for the next 2 weeks!

    Would be nice to get August. This bank holiday weekend last year was a cracker.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    It’s the brightest few weeks of the year coming now love to see some good weather so we can get out and enjoy the long evenings. Nothing against August but from the 15th on I always think there’s a noticeable shortening of the days. Breezy often overcast here today was humid enough earlier but definitely not warm/hot/roasting etc. looking with envy at the scenes from Madrid beautiful blue skies and sun.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Thanks Acequin! Here's to hoping!

    Currently heavy rain in West cork about about 2 hours of drizzle and fog, chilly enough too. Not the best


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Grand mild day pottering around , overcast but mild getting up to 18C, rain held off until late afternoon. Enjoyed the spectacle of the BikeFest in Killarney today, relieving memories of my short lived motorbike ownership years ago and suppressing the mid life crisis desire to get a Harley!

    Back to reality visited Torc waterfall, looking good today lush with vegetation.

    dKBG5qj.jpg?1


    VCv4Ecx.jpg?1


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