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November 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

2

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  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Max 16.2 on the 1st at Phoenix Park. Does that beat the Max for October 20.

    Hasn't been as warm since September!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Max 16.2 on the 1st at Phoenix Park. Does that beat the Max for October 20.

    Bonus Question I didn’t see that I had to put in a date for a low max temperature as well as location. So my guess is 28th at Mt Dillon.

    Thanks, that leaves rikand to go with these missing dates. Sent him and yourself pm's about this but sometimes people have full inboxes. Only two points on the table for this anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It turns out that the 16.2 on 1st Nov was warmest since 16.8 at Newport on 3rd October, we had missed that early reading in our tracking in October -- it did not affect the scoring, minimum progression was still required. The October scoring already posted has been confirmed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    My inbox was probably full.

    Stick me down for the 29th. Sorry about that :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    MIN-1.6°C recorded at Athenry on the 4th.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Min -6.5 Johnstown Castle reported on Met Eireann website for yesterday but I think its an error.

    Nowhere else even got below 0 so that can't be right can it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That does look erroneous, if you click on the location, two missing hours in afternoon otherwise minimum all day was around 5 C there. Will likely be corrected at some point.

    Meanwhile, tracking the low max, yesterday's low max was 8.7 at Oak Park. Not likely to hold up all month but with milder weather coming, who knows? Not 100% sure that is lower than 1st to 4th reached anywhere. Can check that out later if we start to run into a long mild spell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    I think Knock maxed at 8.1 on the 4th.
    Johnstown corrected to 3.3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    I think Knock maxed at 8.1 on the 4th.
    Johnstown corrected to 3.3.

    Thanks I knew it had to be an error!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT on 7.0, which was 1.4 below normal for the period.

    MAX 16.2

    MIN --1.6

    PRC 97% of normal

    SUN 126% of normal (756/600).

    Low max so far _ 8.1 Knock 4th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Casement reported 16.3 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 8.7(4), the second week average was 10.4, 2.7 above normal for the period.

    MAX 16.3, MIN --1.6

    PRC up to 132% of normal, after a rather wet week at 166% of normal.

    SUN has slipped to 91% with the week only 65% (388/600) -- the southwest was cloudier than other regions with only a quarter of their average.

    Low max continues to be 8.1 at Knock.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Yesterday's low max was 12.5 and low min was 11.2 at Knock.
    Finner or Phoenix Park didn't drop below 12.9.
    Thankfully, they don't form the basis of this month's bonus question.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    It will be interesting to see of tomorrow gives us a new colder max value.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Some days next week are looking a bit colder, if I had a reset I would be saying 5.5 looking at the available guidance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New min max Knock Airport 6.9 19th Nov.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 9.0 after a very mild third week which averaged 9.5, 2.4 above normal.

    PRC at 129% with the third week similar to the average, 124%.

    SUN has slipped a bit further, now at 88% with the third week at 83% (499/600).

    Low max 6.9 at Knock.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    This Friday is looking like the coldest day of Nov with forecast max temperatures of only 4 or 5 so that should give us our coldest daily max I would guess.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    New min this week too -3 or 4 possible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Assuming the last seven days average 4 C, run largely dry after today, and provide a bit more sunshine than average, the end of month values (beside those suggested above, which I feel are likely correct too), would be something like

    IMT 7.8-8.0, MAX 16.3, MIN ?? (-3 to -5), PRC 105, SUN 95-100 and low max ?? (2 to 4).

    This will help most scores I think. Could be seeing a few really high ones if people get lucky on their bonus and MIN guesses (the other estimates are probably less subject to variation).


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Tomorrow could be a good day to watch out for low max. with possible persistent fog to some areas of the midlands/east.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    IMT may finish a bit higher now as temperatures not forecast below 5 at weekend


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It appears that no place stayed all that cold yesterday (Knock 6.7, Oak Park 6.9) but today could factor in again, still think IMT will be close to 8 by end of month even if cold is less severe because when I made that projection it wasn't with the more severe cold estimates in mind a few days ago. Let's say 8.1 is perhaps the most likely finishing spot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Oak Park had some missing data during the afternoon, looks like a max around 6 perhaps or in the 5's. May be a delay in getting a number with that missing data issue, will see. Knock also maxed out around 6. Didn't spot any other places lower. Still some slight chance of a lower value by Monday although the next round of high pressure is supposed to be rather mild and overcast. Some place between the grid of stations may always have been colder, in this calm scenario. ... will post a December thread tonight, the usual 25 Dec bonus question anyway. (spoiler alert, no usually wins).


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Oak Park 5.5c and Knock 5.7c min max provisional estimates ogimet


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    In the end new min max is 6.0 at Knock airport.

    Surprised it got that high as so cold yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Looks like it might have got down to -3 around 5am at Mt Dillion for our new minimum value but we will have to wait till tomorrow for confirmation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,743 ✭✭✭appledrop


    -2.8 at Mt Dillion on 28th is new confirmed min.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Mt Dillon -2.8 yesterday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay here is the eagerly awaited week four update ... or perhaps not ...

    IMT after 28 days had sagged to 8.1 with the fourth week average 5.5 which was 1.2 below normal for that interval.

    Expect the finish to be around 7.9 or 8.0 as today and Monday rather mild.

    MAX remains 16.3 and MIN is now --2.8. These are likely final values.

    PRC now sits at about 115% of normal assuming no further rain falls, from comparing monthly totals with averages, there has been a surplus of 200 mm at the eleven stations and most are in the same range of 10 to 20 per cent above normal, one or two are even higher. So using my usual method I see that we are at 113% with this past week at 64% of the normal amount. That estimate is running slightly lower since it could fall below 113 with two dry days, and from the totals I already know the outcome has to be 115% if those are dry. Probably the differential is due to variable amounts as weekly averages. Anyway, this will finish on 115% would say now.

    SUN climbed to 97% with this past week at 126% of normal (754/600) but two rather cloudy days will push it back down to a finish around 95% probably.

    As tracked by some of you (thanks) the low max seems to be 6.0 at Knock on Friday 27th. With that missing data issue I checked Oak Park and they list 6.1 for the same day, so a close second place there. Third place I will need to review (for scoring locations). There seems little chance of this being beaten on Monday as the lowest temperature at 2200h was 6 C and forecasts are generally 8 to 12.

    Will scan the table of forecasts and add in any comments about potentially high scores. Judgement day is Wed 2nd Dec so won't bother with provisional scoring as we'll have final scoring available soon enough.


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