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Wet & Windy Days Ahead (Sept 30th onwards)
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Really don't think this Worth even keeping an eye on fokes... The centre of low seems too far away from us to cause any action.
Next time hopefully!
Hopefully!
although in fairness the thread is only dealing with the generally more unsettled outlook that is forecast. Specifics will always be hard to pin point under these type of set ups. No harm in discussing them though because as Maq rightly claimed in an earlier post, there is little else of interest on the weather front at the moment.maquiladora wrote: »12Z GFS has a less intense low, further away from us. Weaker winds and less precip on this run. Second low is more intense but not very close to us.
Fun to see how much the models change.
Just flicked through the run and yes, there is little of note in it, but one encouraging trend is that the GFS seems to want to keep us under moderately zonal set up right up to FI:
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The GFS has a nice scenario for next Thursday (7th). It develops a tropical system over the Bahamas on Friday, which scoots up the eastern US coast, bringing its moisture with it, and interacting with one of the many Arctic cold pools swinging down from Baffin Bay to generate a rapidly intensifying cyclone during Wednesday.
About a 7% chance of things working out exactly that way of course, as that tropical system may not even form, but interesting nonetheless.
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??? What do you mean? Isn't that particular chart above just the UKMO FAX chart based on that model's output?
http://www2.wetter3.de/fax.html
Isn't that what I just said
The UK fax charts are human considered and produced, and not necessarly entirely based on the UKMO, but what the forecasters in the UK met office consider the be the most likely outcome from a number of runs.
Of course, I can't prove this via a link but I have read this many times before in the past; but this may well be just learned ignorance though...0 -
Deep Easterly wrote: »Isn't that what I just said The UK fax charts are human considered and produced, and not necessarly entirely based on the UKMO, but what the forecasters in the UK met office consider the be the most likely outcome from a number of runs.
Of course, I can't prove this via a link but I have read this many times before in the past; but this may well be just learned ignorance though...
No I'm sure you're right, I just thought the FAX charts were each model's output in a black and white shipping format suitable for faxing, I didn't know there was human input based on several models.
Ya learn something new every day!:)0 -
This seems like a good explanation of the UKMO FAX charts :
UKMO Exeter Charts as they should be called (since Bracknell closed several yrs ago) are derived chiefly from the UKMO Global Model but can be modified towards other solutions by the Medium Range Forecasters at Exeter. They are therefore known as the "issued Medium Range Charts" which may or may not mirror the Global Model itself.
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Thanks Deep and Maquiladora, that's cleared up something I was wondering yesterday when looking at the 12Z UKMO model output for Sunday, which had the low to our south a bit further north and west than the FAX chart. Now I know why there was this discrepancy!
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Cheers Maq for that.
I sent off an email to the UK Met Office last night just to be sure myself and recieved this reply regarding how the fax charts, or should that be the 'issued medium range charts'
are drawn up: (apologies if the format is a bit off as I just copied and pasted)
The UK forecast charts are in general based on the UK computer model run. However, we do look at other computer models, such as ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts), Germany, France and USA, and we do alter our charts if the other models seem to be giving a more consistent signal. Also, the Chief and Deputy Chief Forecasters also use their judgement to modify the charts if they feel the computer model is not quite right. This is based on their experience as forecasters for 10 to 20 years, as well as their knowledge of things that they know the computer model does well, or not so well. So it is definitely a man-machine mix. The computer does much of the work, but there is always that human quality control element before they go out.I hope this helps, and thank you for taking the time to contact the Met Office.
Kind regards
Tara
Weather Desk Advisor
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.
Tel: 0870 900 0100 or +44 (0)1392 88 5680
Fax: 0870 900 5050
Email: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
Your personal details will be stored in our database. The information will not be passed to any third parties. Please advise us if you do not wish your details to be stored. The Met Office is an Executive Agency of the UK Ministry of Defence and is registered under the Data Protection Act 1998.0 -
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Well it seems that the ECM run this evening is coming around the UKMO's way of thinking for this coming sunday/monday in that it is now showing a full blown secondary low developing to the south of Ireland and moving into southern UK:
The same low would have the potential to throw up a lot of rain over the south and east of Ireland should it develop a little more to the north but at this early stage the models seem to have it missing us.0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »Isnt there a trend for lows to end up further NW than the models show sometimes? Like with the first low tomorrow night/friday, a couple of days ago was shown much closer to us but seemed to drift more to the NW on the next runs. I feel like I have seen that trend several times. Perhaps in this case the secondary low will end up tracking over us?
It could be worth keeping an eye for sure Maq, as these secondary features are often very hard to pin down so far out. I think there is a general agreement now that a wave feature will develop to the south of Ireland towards the end of the coming weekend but how far north or south, and how intense it will be, is anybody's guess at this stage. 0 -
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Looking at the big picture, the vast swathe of tropical moisture affecting the US east coast is currently making its way off New Foundland and heading over this way, steered by the deep US trough and large Atlantic anticyclone. From the north, the Icelandic low is advecting Arctic outbreaks southwards towards the same area off New Foundland. This is generating a 180mph westerly jet, which will tap into the tropical moisture and generate some very vigorous and at times explosive cyclones. With the depth and hence path of these cyclones so finely dependent on upper forcing and the exact location of the tropical moisture, which in turn is dependent on what Nicole and Co. do over the next few days, which in turn is not well defined, we can see how the models are having such a problem with pinning down the details for a week from now.
Plus of course we have MT's energy peak to consider, something which the models....and even the forecasters in Exeter....know nothing of!
850hPa Theta-E, 12Z today
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