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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

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  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I'm interested in the potential link yes, The evidence is strongest for the deepest minimums and so I would like to see as quiet a minimum as possible to see any potential effect on our weather.

    If this is the long and very deep minimum some believe we are just slipping into then I would expect a notable impact on our climate into the early 2020's. Winter 19/20 as the kick-off point. This would fit fairly well timing wise with the last minimum in 08/09- as Nacho Hope's above, there does seem to be a slight lag.

    Next winter can hardly be anything but colder than this just gone though, I'd be taking note of anything exceptional. It won't be apparent for a few years if this is actually what is going on or if there are other factors at play. A big volcanic eruption in the next few years would make it hard to draw conclusions for example.

    So yeah I'm interested to see A) are we slipping into a grand minimum? And B) What affect will this have on our climate? if any.

    Hard to put a percentage on it but I would absolutely expect our climate to be notably cooler soon if we are indeed heading into a grand solar minimum. (Also interested to see how this might play out against the fact the earth is currently warming)

    Thanks for reply.
    It will be interesting. Is there a threshold where it is considered a grand solar minimum from a typical solar minimum. Ie. What during of time required with no sunspots or how or who classifies it?




  • A little spot just popped up and broke the long spotless trend.
    hmi1898.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    After a quiet start to the year there has been some activity in the last few days.

    Earth-Directed Solar Flare
    March 20, 2019: Northern spring began with a bang. On March 20th at 1118 UT, new sunspot AR2736 exploded, producing a C4-class solar flare that lasted more than an hour.

    The explosion sent minor waves of ionization rippling through Earth’s upper atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio “brownout” over southern parts of Europe and all of Africa. Anomalies in radio propagation at frequencies below 20 MHz might have been noticed by, e.g., mariners and ham radio operators.


    video here of the sunspot.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,682 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    Recently released from NOAA/NASA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-preliminary-forecast
    SOLAR CYCLE 25 PRELIMINARY FORECAST

    published: Friday, April 05, 2019 19:45 UTC
    The NOAA/NASA co-chaired international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released a preliminary forecast for Solar Cycle 25 on April 5, 2019. The consensus: Cycle 25 will be similar in size to cycle 24. It is expected that sunspot maximum will occur no earlier than the year 2023 and no later than 2026 with a minimum peak sunspot number of 95 and a maximum of 130. In addition, the panel expects the end of Cycle 24 and start of Cycle 25 to occur no earlier than July, 2019, and no later than September, 2020. The panel hopes to release a final, detailed forecast for Cycle 25 by the end of 2019. Please read the official NOAA press release describing the international panel's forecast at https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle

    From what I can make out in this forecast there does not seem to be any imminent grand solar minimum predicted, and maybe just a slightly smaller cycle predicted for cycle 25.
    From my own personal perspective I am hoping these predictions come true.
    I like to photograph the aurora when I get the chance, and these last couple of years have been very bad for any activity. The last thing I would like to see is any grand solar minimum approaching.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Does the lack of updates indicate sunspot activity has increased in recent times? I am just hoping there is a lag effect around low sunspot activity which means winter 2019/20 will be a cold one. I suppose it's a bit early to be thinking about next winter at this stage


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Does the lack of updates indicate sunspot activity has increased in recent times? I am just hoping there is a lag effect around low sunspot activity which means winter 2019/20 will be a cold one. I suppose it's a bit early to be thinking about next winter at this stage

    There has been an increase in sunspot activity and the trend has flatlined now up to April 2019 than declining.

    Daily total sunspot numbers for May 2018 to April 2019 and the red line is a 13-day running average:

    lToadL4.png

    Monthly sunspot numbers for Solar Cycle 24 and back to Jan 2006 plus a 13-month running average:

    jr9s45K.png

    Gav's Solar Sunday makes for an excellent watch as always.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Currently running at 16 consecutive spotless days on the sun.

    Current Stretch: 16 days
    2019 total: 90 days (58%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    I liked how this man puts everything together. Sound is a bit off but improves. No idea of validity of science behind it but interesting.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGVJWC-l-E&amp;t=1484s




  • Well, we have now matched 2018 for the percentage of spotless days, will be interesting to see how long we'll need to wait to see another one.
    Sunspot number: 0
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 14 Jun 2019

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 26 days
    2019 total: 100 days (61%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)
    Updated 14 Jun 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Sun gone very quiet, Solar flux down to 66... not often that low.

    29 days blank, 103 for 2019 / 61%


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    A full month of consecutive spotless days now, 31.

    Current stretch: 31 days
    2019 total: 104 days (62%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    2008 total: 268 days (73%)
    2007 total: 152 days (42%)
    2006 total: 70 days (19%)

    http://spaceweather.com/


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    35 days on the blink now...

    'THE SUN IS SO BLANK, IT LOOKS LIKE A BILLIARD BALL: The sun has just crossed 34 days without a sunspot, marking the longest stretch of blank suns in the current solar cycle'

    hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=kufjhiharlu594s5t82uq06lj2

    35 days blank, 108 for 2019 62%

    Solar flux 66


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    After 36 days blank we have some action -

    hmi1898.gif

    Solar flux @ 68




  • Soon to go over the horizon, so only a few days worth.




  • Spaceweather.com have also recently launched a "hot flight" monitoring section.

    It will be interesting to see how much more the radiation levels rise over the next few months as the solar activity continues to fall, or are we already at the bottom.



    SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.

    E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.

    The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

    Previous chart of cosmic ray activity, levels were higher in 2009 than today, so we could see even higher values in the near future.

    monitor.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Here is something interesting that happened during solar cycle 16 (1923-1933). The Raikoke volcano in the Kuril Islands exploded February 15 1924 and there may be a link between solar minimums and volcanic activity.

    At the time the country was emerging from the civil war and was primarily an agriculture based economy.
    The harvest in 1923 and, in particular, 1924 was nothing short of disastrous. The weather, while not particularly cold, was unusually wet. Crop yields collapsed.

    The worst affected areas were in the west of Ireland and particularly the Atlantic Islands [ASF: that is, of course, the predominantly Irish-speaking communities].

    As early as the 20th of August 1924 the Meath Chronicle reported “a famine condition is imminent as bad as 1847”. Through the early autumn, local and national newspapers were littered with similar predictions of mass starvation.

    By October, people in Connemara were reported to be surviving on seaweed and shell fish.

    On New Year’s Eve 1924, a doctor was called to the home of Michael Kane who lived on Omey Island. Arriving at the house, the physician found “Kane was lying on the stone floor near a small turf fire. His emaciated face showed only too plainly the cause of his illness. The man was starving and too far-gone to benefit from medical attention. Two children, of three years and two years, respectively were lying by the fire trying to keep warm. They too were weak for want of nourishment.” Kane died two days later in Galway hospital…

    source


    The same volcano Raikoke has exploded again.



    Volcano Just Shot Out a Mushroom-Shaped Cloud So Big It Could Be Seen from Orbit
    Raikoke is a stratovolcano, which means its slopes are built up from numerous layers of hardened lava and ash. It reaches 1,808 feet (551 m) above sea level, and prior to Raikoke's 1924 explosion, the volcano's last recorded activity was in 1778, according to the National Museum of Natural History's Global Volcanism Program.

    Another image captured by satellite on June 22 shows dense concentrations of ash on the western half of the plume, while circulating storm winds over the Pacific tug at the plume and draw it eastward. Along with the ash, Raikoke's eruption also discharged a plume of sulfur dioxide that winds stirred into the stratosphere, Carn said.

    source

    The volcano Raikoke destroyed all life on the Kuril island.


    There are quite a few volcanoes in that region and even though they are on the other side of the planet they have had an impact historically, 1740 being the most significant.





    The main impact of such activity is an increase in Stratospheric sulphur aerosols.
    Stratospheric sulfur aerosols are sulfur-rich particles which exist in the stratosphere region of the Earth's atmosphere. The layer of the atmosphere in which they exist is known as the Junge layer, or simply the stratospheric aerosol layer. These particles consist of a mixture of sulfuric acid and water. They are created naturally, such as by photochemical decomposition of sulfur-containing gases, e.g. carbonyl sulfide. When present in high levels, e.g. after a strong volcanic eruption such as Mount Pinatubo, they produce a cooling effect, by reflecting sunlight, and by modifying clouds as they fall out of the stratosphere.[1] This cooling may persist for a few years before the particles fall out

    source

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,822 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer





  • Perfect storm perhaps, a few major volcanic eruptions combined with the lowest period of solar activity for 200 years, will be very interesting to see if this reverses the "global warming" caused by human activity.
    It could cause such a cooling that climate scientists lose all credibility, despite the fact that there is an element of truth in human activity causing some warming.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Perfect storm perhaps, a few major volcanic eruptions combined with the lowest period of solar activity for 200 years, will be very interesting to see if this reverses the "global warming" caused by human activity.
    It could cause such a cooling that climate scientists lose all credibility, despite the fact that there is an element of truth in human activity causing some warming.

    I would like to be a fly on the wall at Crusty HQ when that announcement is made


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,822 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    Perfect storm perhaps, a few major volcanic eruptions combined with the lowest period of solar activity for 200 years, will be very interesting to see if this reverses the "global warming" caused by human activity.
    It could cause such a cooling that climate scientists lose all credibility, despite the fact that there is an element of truth in human activity causing some warming.

    there is so much hysteria over this that it might re balance the debate.

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Perfect storm perhaps, a few major volcanic eruptions combined with the lowest period of solar activity for 200 years, will be very interesting to see if this reverses the "global warming" caused by human activity.
    It could cause such a cooling that climate scientists lose all credibility, despite the fact that there is an element of truth in human activity causing some warming.

    If volcanic eruptions reversed global warming because of particulate emissions it wouldn’t disprove anything about human caused global warming. It would merely mask it for a while.

    And isn’t the premise of this thread that a mini ice age is or was on the way. Where is it?




  • If volcanic eruptions reversed global warming because of particulate emissions it wouldn’t disprove anything about human caused global warming. It would merely mask it for a while.

    And isn’t the premise of this thread that a mini ice age is or was on the way. Where is it?
    Patience grasshopper! If there is going to be a prolonged cooling period, expect it to start in a couple of years time. A mini ice age is not expected, it will be more like a reversion to climatic conditions of the early 1970s rather than the 1650s (when the Thames and other major rivers of the British Isles froze in winter).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Patience grasshopper! If there is going to be a prolonged cooling period, expect it to start in a couple of years time. A mini ice age is not expected, it will be more like a reversion to climatic conditions of the early 1970s rather than the 1650s (when the Thames and other major rivers of the British Isles froze in winter).

    Hang on. This thread is ten years old. How much patience is needed.


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    Lol nothing will change the minds of the climate alarmists.......




  • Hang on. This thread is ten years old. How much patience is needed.
    The prediction was made a decade ago, it was expected that the cooling would start around now. As things stand, apart from the heatwave that hit Western Europe this week, temperatures so far this year have been slightly below average, but not enough to be considered a sign of a cooling trend, yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Lol nothing will change the minds of the climate alarmists.......

    Whoever they are.

    Whatever was predicted in this thread about a “new ice age” has clearly not materialised. The earth continues to warm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Well no, it's been cooling the last three years. Zharkova predicts the next solar cycle to be roughly the same as the last then a very min/no cycle warming again 2055. Solar influence on temp/climate and man influence are not mutually exclusive. Her latest paper in regards solar influence and our climate is: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    Whoever they are.

    Whatever was predicted in this thread about a “new ice age” has clearly not materialised. The earth continues to warm.

    Climate cycles can last tens, 100's and 1000's years possibly more, anything is possible. Current warm phase might naturally end in a decade , 100 years, who knows.

    Climatologists are convinced Co2 will be the end of us but we won't be alive to find out, 1000 years from now the planet could be half covered in ICe or burned to a crisp, doubt there'll be much we can do either way.


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  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    During the Maunder Minimum , extreme weather events were recorded all over the world.

    Who knows the effects deep space radiation/cosmic rays etc may also have on the earth, it's a fragile place for sure.

    A sphere spinning around the sun , spinning around in the milky way galaxy which is also spinning around etc, it's all really remarkable when you think about it and here we are !

    No doubt this type of weather event will become more and more common as solar minimum continues.


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