Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

_Whimsical_ · 13-10-2017 11:03pm

LordSutch wrote: »

Well there certainly is confusion if its called ExOphelia.

As I said previously, its either a hurricane called Opehilia, or its a Ex hurricane, called Ophelia, but it is not ExOphelia as Ms Ryan calls it..

It's rather ironic really that it's taken on this name as Ophelia, Hamlet's once girlfriend, is one of the most famous female ex's in the history of literature!

sdanseo · 13-10-2017 11:05pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

GFS nudges East enough to call it a significant upgrade.
Simply put if the models follow suit in the morning a very quick red alert will be issued.
One other point for Cork
A southeast wind is dire as it backs up the tide. Corks worst flooding comes from a southeast wind.
Storm surge, southeast storm force wind = ??

Not sure about that. GFS shows less than 120km/h gusts at +63h
Criterion for red is 130km/h +
It's a definite shift east and lands the entire country in the firing line, but at a lower intensity.

And from what others have said, hasn't the GFS has been the black sheep all along? So it wouldn't be particularly credible?

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2017 11:06pm

In ur opinion what wud this mean for west limerick?

Can only go by the models at present and any small changes will make a big difference, with that said probably winds gusting to somewhere between 90 /120 km/h at times are possible.

Don't take the charts as gospel , they are guides to what could happen and will become more reliable nearer the event .

yellowlabrador · 13-10-2017 11:09pm

Here is Dr jeff Masters' post on Wunderground. There's a video clip explaining a stingjet
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-2-hurricane-ophelia-headed-towards-azores-and-ireland

Kermit.de.frog · 13-10-2017 11:10pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Not sure about that. GFS shows less than 120km/h gusts at +63h
Criterion for red is 130km/h +
It's a definite shift east and lands the entire country in the firing line, but at a lower intensity.

And from what others have said, hasn't the GFS has been the black sheep all along? So it wouldn't be particularly credible?

The center is at 980 hpa. This is out of line with all the other models. GEM and NAVGEM have similar tracks but note the depth and tighter gradient.

navgem-0-72.png?13-19

Be interesting to see if the GFS moves toward the deeper configuration in following runs. The track looks more consistent now with the other main models though.

sdanseo · 13-10-2017 11:15pm

Anyone have a higher res version of this? Looks like a huge area of sustained >50kt with what look like 70kt tails?

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2017 11:16pm

The center is at 980 hpa. This is out of line with all the other models. GEM and NAVGEM have similar tracks but note the depth and tighter gradient.

Yea the mean speeds and gusts dont seem to match the isobar gradient and forward speed of the system, it is filling but not that fast.

mickger844posts · 13-10-2017 11:20pm

Since this Hurricane formed a few days ago model output has been surprisingly consistent. Less than 72hrs away and we have a consensus that a major and probably once in a lifetime storm is going to hit. For those who say its going to be just a normal Autumn gale you may be in for a shock come Monday.
Met Eireann are being a little too cautious and vague and hopefully tomorrow they will get off the fence and put the necessary level warnings in place.
I love weather and of course extreme events but ive experienced Super Typhoons and Tropical storms in Taiwan and there is a point where it stops being fun and gets real. I hope we do get downgrades as i feel we are not prepared for a storm of this magnitude in Ireland.

www.waterfordweather.com

Esel · 13-10-2017 11:20pm

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

It's rather ironic really that it's taken on this name as Ophelia, Hamlet's once girlfriend, is one of the most famous female ex's in the history of literature!

O/T but apt? 'Ophelia' by The Band from 'The Last Waltz'

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4RjqcTsxx-8

irishfeen · 13-10-2017 11:23pm

Looking like working outside in N.Cork on Monday might not be advisable lads and ladies?

blast06 · 13-10-2017 11:26pm

I love these threads .... as a watcher and not a poster.

But i would love them even more if they weren't polluted with the "should i proceed with my plan to put my grannys knickers on the clothes line on Monday at 2:46pm in the townland of Ballymicaloe near Corrabona" type of nonsense post :mad: :rolleyes:

Or the "should i drop my skinny latte plans and reading the IT on Sat morning before taking Nigel to play with the U-8's in Belvedere; and instead take the Beamer down to west Cork to check the windows are closed in the aul holiday home overlooking the Old Head"

Or the "i've got a business critical meeting in London on Tuesday at 9am with a 6am flight. Will there be any trees blocking junction 7 on the M50 that may disrupt my plans thus possibly knocking millions of the valuation of the company"

As Ross O'Carroll Kelly might say .... "can yee **** right off the lot of yee. Calling it"

I know, i know .... i'm not really helping with this post :-(

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2017 11:28pm

Anyone have a higher res version of this? Looks like a huge area of sustained >50kt with what look like 70kt tails?

Thats the best I can find atm.

Note : 850 hPa winds ( 1.5 km )

QFPRnar.gif?1

Jobs OXO · 13-10-2017 11:28pm

luimneachboy wrote: »

In ur opinion what wud this mean for west limerick?

Possible wind

pauldry · 13-10-2017 11:30pm

Im going to my grannys in ballymaloe at 246pm on Monday after a skinny latte in town

Should I cancel those plans.

Gaoth Laidir · 13-10-2017 11:35pm

Latest track, showing 65 knots just off the west coast 18Z Monday, with 50-knot winds stretching further out. I find it hard to believe we'll see any 65-knot sustained wind reports by then but certainly gusts well above 70 likely.

Here's the text for 18Z.

HURRICANE OPHELIA (17L) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 53.2N 10.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS

al172017.17101306.gif

Rougies · 13-10-2017 11:35pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Anyone have a higher res version of this? Looks like a huge area of sustained >50kt with what look like 70kt tails?

PukkaStukka · 13-10-2017 11:36pm

mickger844posts wrote:

Met Eireann are being a little too cautious and vague and hopefully tomorrow they will get off the fence and put the necessary level warnings in place.
I love weather and of course extreme events but ive experienced Super Typhoons and Tropical storms in Taiwan and there is a point where it stops being fun and gets real. I hope we do get downgrades as i feel we are not prepared for a storm of this magnitude in Ireland.

I share your concern and am too hoping this thing downgrades.

To be fair to Met Eireann, they are consistently saying that people need to follow their official forecasts and they will issue the necessary appropriate warnings. Gerald Fleming said today that the normal rules of meteorology don't apply to these type of storms thereby making their future prediction less straightforward

nuac · 13-10-2017 11:36pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Just sticking the 5pm (EDT) NHC chart in here as a screen shot for future reference. I've never seen a 'H' over Ireland before, even if it is showing the system as extra-tropical by then.

Mam's Mam remembered Debbie in 1961. She was in Westport in Co. Mayo at the time. Her abiding memory was the sheer amount of stuff flying around. Roof slates etc.

Was in Galway 9/61. Many trees blown down. Chunks torn out of Prom at Salthill. Extensive flooding.

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2017 11:36pm

Jobs OXO wrote: »

Possible wind

Mod Note Stay on topic. Note the forum charter 5. No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

jacksie66 · 13-10-2017 11:37pm

This post has been deleted.

jacksie66 · 13-10-2017 11:45pm

This post has been deleted.

Stephen Hawkins football boots · 13-10-2017 11:45pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Latest track, showing 65 knots just off the west coast 18Z Monday, with 50-knot winds stretching further out. I find it hard to believe we'll see any 65-knot sustained wind reports by then but certainly gusts well above 70 likely.

Here's the text for 18Z.

HURRICANE OPHELIA (17L) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 53.2N 10.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS

Great but what does that mean?

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2017 11:46pm

Mod Note: Posts deleted, stay on topic.

SEPT 23 1989 · 13-10-2017 11:57pm

jacksie66 wrote: »

Could we have a repeat in Limerick city like a few years back when the rowing club roof was ripped off?

I expect a lot of the celtic tiger junk will become very exposed if this hits full effect

My name is URL · 13-10-2017 11:59pm

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

I expect a lot of the celtic tiger junk will become very exposed if this hits full effect

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmJUbzu6RSU

Nettle Soup · 14-10-2017 12:00am

What time roughly will this thing peak on Monday on Galway Bay?
Morning, Afternoon or Evening?

SEPT 23 1989 · 14-10-2017 12:04am

Totally underplayed on the RTE tv forecast just now

RobertKK · 14-10-2017 12:05am

Siobhan Ryan said there will be upgrades on the warnings on Saturday and possibly more upgrades in the warnings later in the weekend.

Doltanian · 14-10-2017 12:12am

Well with RTE if its outside the M50 it isn't important from their point of view. Half of Cork and Kerry could lay in ruins with hundreds dead and they'd give it 2 minutes of coverage while David Norris and some stupid Bloomsday in Dublin 4 would get the full headlines.

M.T. Cranium · 14-10-2017 12:13am

pauldry wrote: »

Im going to my grannys in ballymaloe at 246pm on Monday after a skinny latte in town

Should I cancel those plans.

We all know who you're really visiting.

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Comments