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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Just to ramp up this thread so someone might post some charts it is trending a bit colder towards the last week of November. Could be frost, hail, sleet?


  • Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭bazlers


    20ft snow drifts this winter


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Basically, the models are having some love-hate affair with cold weather prospects in early December. Some of this was mentioned in the Search for the first snow of Winter 2020-2021 thread. On todays 12z (Midday) run there were subtle hints of the roaring Atlantic low-pressure train halting to high pressure building to the north of Scotland... the 18z run is coming out now and it will be interesting to see if these signals are still there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Danno wrote: »
    Basically, the models are having some love-hate affair with cold weather prospects in early December. Some of this was mentioned in the Search for the first snow of Winter 2020-2021 thread. On todays 12z (Midday) run there were subtle hints of the roaring Atlantic low-pressure train halting to high pressure building to the north of Scotland... the 18z run is coming out now and it will be interesting to see if these signals are still there.

    the GFS 18z says cold zonal so far and it's looking very wet (possibly sleety at times especially on high ground).


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Bloody 00z is now breezier and more mobile with little or no frost. A few 5 to 8c days but nights will also be about 2 to 4c as it's too breezy plus it will be 8 to 11c most days.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A mix bag from + 120hrs, no clear pattern but does look to mostly come in off the Atlantic but influenced by Canada and Greenland at times. On the cooler side with alternating cold and milder interludes, neither very cold or very mild, next Weds to Fri looks cool from the 3 main models . ECM wetter than the GFS and the ECM, showing some stormy weather around Sat 28th which MT alluded to in his forecast , difference in the models as not shown by the GFS.


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    OMG :D :eek::eek::eek::eek:

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    Arctic Unleashed


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Ah lads

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing colder weather + 120 hrs . Lots of cold nights with frost potential and quite wet at times, showing sleet potential also , might be seeing our first icy roads if these charts verify but as we have seen they have got downgraded quite a bit recently nearer to the time.

    Purely for the craic, first bit of snow from the ECM . Might disappear though as quick as the storm it was showing a few runs ago for next weekend :D:D

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS getting cooler as well in the final days of the month and into the first week of December. Nothing that cold on offer but cold rain and sleety precipitation a possibility.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-11-21&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    temperatures by the end of the end of month no more than 5 or 6C during the day.

    168-580UK.GIF?21-12

    216-580UK.GIF?21-12

    Not totally sold on this cooler trend yet, could easily flip back to mild south-westerlies.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    What if ?

    As mentioned by MT an interesting if somewhat unreliable run this morning showing a LP system developing around Biscay on the 4th. GFS lets it drift into Europe while the ECM deepens it to a potential storm and sends it up towards and in over Ireland. Windy on coasts but the most interesting outcome is this system running into very cold air over Ireland and dropping a large amount of snow a sort of sneaky beast maybe :D. Possibly blizzard like if a set up like this happened.

    This set of charts could be just a one off wonder , big outlier, and not even feature on the next run but as it presents on this run to me it is meteorological beauty, a perfect storm so to speak, it would no doubt be disruptive but of huge interest to the weather community I'm sure but also of course not to get carried away either , as ever a lot of wheels would need to turn in the right direction for this to happen as presently shown.

    FI is always a tricky and sometimes futile domain in which to try and foresee various weather potential and especially in this time of so little data input due to Covid but it is always interesting when there is a hint of an event.

    Will see what comes up on the next runs .

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes, I was wondering what you model watchers would make of that chart, I don't think it has any real chance of happening as shown but the idea of a low moving up from the south instead of staying down around Iberia makes some sense, no strong signals for any wintry outcome yet, could rather easily transition into some sort of cold zonality with the usual marginal snow on hills.

    As shown that would be a catastrophic storm for Britain especially areas around the Severn estuary, south Wales. Timing very similar to the 1703 storm which was Nov 25-26 old style, or around 8 Dec in Gregorian calendar.

    Would not want to be seeing that on a more reliable time frame. Think it would be a pretty wild mixture of precip and wind fields over Ireland, from the looks of the day ten output the centre tracks through Ulster to get to where it ends up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    That will be likely be gone on subsequent output, it's an outlier. I wonder are we seeing the early hints of a warming in the stratosphere? We seem a long way from a return to raging zonality going by the hemisphere profile, but of course that can change rather quickly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well the latest ECM still has that low, albeit a bit more diluted. Looks like a cold, wet and windy day. There could be snow in the Wicklow area. If so i expect an imminent return to this forum;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah still showing a low but not as deep and further E over the UK. Still showing a cold airmass and got the look of cooling down more in general as we move into winter proper. It will feel a bit more seasonal if anything.

    Still early days , no doubt we will be seeing a variety of scenario's over the coming days, will se if it keeps that general look.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Joanna said on Radio1 "becoming very cold late next week"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    pauldry wrote: »
    Joanna said on Radio1 "becoming very cold late next week"

    In these times that's probably about 6-8c by day...


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup even the Arctic JAXA extent is down by 4k today. If that cant freeze what chance do we have. 6 to 8c is probably what it will be.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    In my opinion ECM keeping it's general shape from +120 hrs. Unsettled, cold with wintry showers, would not rule out snow on elevated ground at times especially night. Windy at times and a new deep area of LP making an appearance at the end of the run. A lot of NW and Nly sourced air. Currently showing some frosts, possibly hard in places , has the look of getting down quite low. Going to stick my neck out an say that snow should be not ruled out, maybe wet lower down in places but could see some lying on hills.

    Would have thought that the 12Z was an upgrade regarding cold. And with wind at times could get very low wind chill readings.

    Gets more interesting I reckon.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Cold coming down from the north next week then its shows the pattern after that changing and cold starting to come in from the east/north east into the second week of December...too early to tell yet but it is possible...we often get a short few days of cold coming down from the north followed by a longer spell of cold from a more easterly direction not long after...we'll see sure


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Cold coming down from the north next week then its shows the pattern after that changing and cold starting to come in from the east/north east into the second week of December...too early to tell yet but it is possible...we often get a short few days of cold coming down from the north followed by a longer spell of cold from a more easterly direction not long after...we'll see sure

    Looks likely. Long term though, no cold pool to tap into, Scandi and Europe still too warm.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    It’s only November. Give it time, it will snow eventually as it does most years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I would not say it's likely until it's within t 48. We have seen easterly vanish in previous years even within that time frame

    As regards the continent being too warm,If a proper easterly or northeasterly source is established it won't take long for the continent to cool down, but given our location it would be better if the cold air was already in place.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Icon a slight upgrade again out to 120hrs

    We are on the cusp of something special
    A slight nudge would do it!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Icon a slight upgrade again out to 120hrs

    We are on the cusp of something special
    A slight nudge would do it!!

    Cusp...love it...what we are seeing is a 2010 developing before our eyes. It's a classic. Cold is pooling in the east. It's either a brutal cold northerly, a easterly...beast...or both. The Atlantic is shutting off run after run and its showing accross other models.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It will get very cold next week but I feel all the parameters will not be in place for any real snow. Still a messy mixture is likely though some heavier spells may whiten the place for brief moments.

    After a brief Easterly incursion it will go back to mild again up to Christmas


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,258 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Is Kermit going to jump ship from covid related issues and go back to his roots this week??


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,958 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    pauldry wrote: »
    It will get very cold next week but I feel all the parameters will not be in place for any real snow. Still a messy mixture is likely though some heavier spells may whiten the place for brief moments.

    After a brief Easterly incursion it will go back to mild again up to Christmas

    Much too early to say what will happen after the upcoming cold spell (if that even materialises) :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,523 ✭✭✭White Clover


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    Is Kermit going to jump ship from covid related issues and go back to his roots this week??

    Hopefully not! Another 2010 is a sheep farmers worst nightmare.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭lostweekend3


    pauldry wrote: »
    It will get very cold next week but I feel all the parameters will not be in place for any real snow. Still a messy mixture is likely though some heavier spells may whiten the place for brief moments.

    After a brief Easterly incursion it will go back to mild again up to Christmas

    How can you say that with such confidence. Nobody knows what the weather will be like at Christmas.

    Looking at the charts the last few days, the upcoming cold blast from the north/northwest looks nailed on but I agree it will be a wintry mix given the modification from atlantic. Still expect to see a fair amount of snow over hills and mountains. Donegal, Mayo and Sligo could do very well out of this.


This discussion has been closed.
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