Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

hatrickpatrick · 16-10-2017 5:27pm #1

Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:

Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:

What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?

Creative83 · 16-10-2017 5:31pm

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;1.3;5&l=gust&t=20171020/21

This looks like another storm similar to todays... :eek:

sdanseo · 16-10-2017 5:37pm

Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.

Akrasia · 16-10-2017 6:02pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Funny how 50 kt was halfway mark on the scale yesterday, now it's at the top.
Scary to think we'd get two in a week. There is surely no way a post-tropical transiting the North Atlantic could come anywhere near what we've just experienced.

The water temperatures are significantly above average which could allow it to keep much of its strength as it crosses the atlantic

anomw.10.12.2017.gif

munsterlegend · 16-10-2017 6:07pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Didn't want to post this in either of the Ophelia threads given how serious the situation is and the need to focus on current conditions, but the ECM has picked up on a currently developing tropical cyclone off the US coast, currently designated as Invest 92-L, which it develops into a system with hurricane force winds and then takes straight into Ireland:

Animated loop of the ECM from 48H onwards:

What do people make of this? This is more of a "classic" post tropical storm in that it will traverse the Atlantic from the American coast, around the circulation of the Azores high and then approach us - assuming it does develop, which is not yet a given, what kinds of impacts do people see from this?

Surely can't be that unlucky again! Usually these storms miss us to the north west?

sdanseo · 16-10-2017 6:08pm

Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM

GFS

WRF

NAVGEM

pjohnson · 16-10-2017 6:14pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM

GFS

WRF

NAVGEM

Oh. Is it a certainty to hit?

Mod Edit

jArgHA · 16-10-2017 6:16pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

No

pjohnson · 16-10-2017 6:17pm

jArgHA wrote: »

No

Thank god. I'm a weather idiot so find these graphs hard to follow. Appreciate the help.

hatrickpatrick · 16-10-2017 6:17pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

This far out, absolutely not. It's not even a certainty to develop a closed circulation before the wind shear rips it apart - NHC give it a 40% chance. One to watch, but not one to panic about just yet.

Akrasia · 16-10-2017 6:25pm

Those models show it zipping across the atlantic at ludicrous speed

Must be averaging 30kts the whole way

sdanseo · 16-10-2017 6:27pm

No such thing as a certainty with the weather. There was a 180km/h wind indication 24hrs ago for where I am - honestly I'd be surprised if we got 120.

The fact that there's consensus between a few different models shows "something is up". Not possible to be any more definitive than that 120hrs out.

tayto lover · 16-10-2017 6:38pm

Ah feck.
Back into the bunker.

RobbingBandit · 16-10-2017 6:43pm

Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in.

pjohnson · 16-10-2017 6:43pm

For goodness sake. Thats the family holiday done then.

Mod Edit:

Monkeynut · 16-10-2017 6:45pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Fuck. Is it a certainty to hit?

Most definitely it will hit, somewhere, where eh who knows.

the weather can change at any given time.

Pwindedd · 16-10-2017 6:51pm

Okay I'm going entirely from memory now but in the great storm ( I was in SE england 87') I'm sure i remember about a few days or week later we got another storm - first one was at night and massive power cuts etc, but second one was during day and we were all in school when the windows started smashing and we were sent home. I'm merely suggesting that when the conditions are right maybe these conditions repeat themselves for a short while - like a mini-season over a week or so

Akrasia · 16-10-2017 6:53pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

Most definitely it will hit, somewhere, where eh who knows.

the weather can change at any given time.

It hasn't formed yet, its more likely to dissipate and get swallowed up by another weather system

Chris_5339762 · 16-10-2017 6:53pm

Thats interesting that they are predicting a second, almost identical looking storm. But the funny thing is they progress completely differently across the Atlantic.

These ones usually (in my experience) head a bit further north with each model run and I think I would prefer that than the current runs.

allthedoyles · 16-10-2017 6:55pm

yr.no have us down for heavy rain Friday evening / Saturday morning in the SE.
Supposed to bit breezy too , but hopefully not gale.

Snowc · 16-10-2017 7:41pm

pjohnson wrote: »

For fuck sake. Thats the family holiday done then.

Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

JCX BXC · 16-10-2017 7:50pm

Snowc wrote: »

Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

If it's too far out to know, how do you know buses should be running? What winds are expected if it goes to forecast?

sryanbruen · 16-10-2017 7:53pm

Going by the current synoptics, I'd say something along the lines of 50-60mph but not ruling out 70mph. It could all change as posters have highlighted however.

Donegal Storm · 16-10-2017 7:57pm

Pretty good consensus across the models that it will form and will head towards us, no real agreement on track and intensity though

Already in view on the hi res Arpege model which did a pretty good job of todays event, not as strong and well to the south but it'll be worth a watch over the next few days

pad199207 · 16-10-2017 7:58pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Ah here leave it out.

+120hrs

ECM

GFS

WRF

NAVGEM

Are ya havin a giraffe?

sryanbruen · 16-10-2017 8:01pm

Snowc wrote: »

Wow a lot of anger in your post just looking at what the charts are showing now, of course I don't know what it will be like in 5 days.Maybe go out and get some fresh air from Ophelia

Fresh air from Ophelia? :eek: you're crazy.

Anyway, getting off topic here.

pjohnson · 16-10-2017 8:02pm

Snowc wrote: »

Too far out yet to know but travel buses should still be running so you should be ok for your day trip .

Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken. A few more AH style posters.

sryanbruen · 16-10-2017 8:04pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Going by the current synoptics, I'd say something along the lines of 50-60mph but not ruling out 70mph. It could all change as posters have highlighted however.

Although, with this from Windy.com and the ECMWF, I'd expect stronger winds than what I said above:

sryanbruen · 16-10-2017 8:04pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Maybe my first impressions of this forum being helpful was mistaken.

What?

Storm 10 · 16-10-2017 8:07pm

Joanna after the news she went as far as Wednesday then said "We will leave the rest for another day" sounds like she knows something

Snowc · 16-10-2017 8:07pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Although, with this from Windy.com and the ECMWF, I'd expect stronger winds than what I said above:

[IMGimg[/IMG]

I keep getting an error when I try to load windy today.What web browser are you using ?

Storm Brian : Orange Wind Warning Sat 21 -10-17

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