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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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I think the general trend is still for a milder end to November, these change day by day but it is certainly looking more realistic that we will be going into a milder phase for the last 10 days of the month.0
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ECM keeping it cold out to +240 hrs and showing some very cold charts early days of next week with widespread sharp frosts, see 2m -5.0C / -6.0C temps showing up for next Tues and Weds mornings in the NW with some very low day time temps also. Of course far off and changes could happen .
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sryanbruen wrote: »Mainly the showery variety for the next week besides the odd band of rain like during the weekend. Latest models show a low circulating around Ireland this time next week which would deliver a good bit of rain again to all and further risk of flooding although for some, it doesn't take much rain for flooding at this point.
I much prefer it to be mild and wet than cold and wet but some drier conditions are necessary at this point.
Was looking at the at deep low sryanbruen, ECM was showing it a couple of days ago for the W coast as a lively storm and then dropped it completely and now back again, it may take time to resolve its track and strength but one to watch.
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This is 8 days out but it shows how potentially fluid the outlook is in the medium term. Center this LP a 250 miles east and the country is on the cold side in a potent northerly flow. All depends on the strength of the ridge to the west. There is a lot up for grabs in the next couple of weeks. A nudge here or there:cool:
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the return to mild begins over the next few days as a milder trend begins, in about a weeks time temperatures recover to normal and then perhaps going several degree's above normal into the final week of November. Uppers going from -5 currently to about +2 or +3 which could get us back into the low teens. Final 10 days of November also look very wet indeed with no shortage of rainfall.0
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »This is 8 days out but it shows how potentially fluid the outlook is in the medium term. Center this LP a 250 miles east and the country is on the cold side in a potent northerly flow. All depends on the strength of the ridge to the west. There is a lot up for grabs in the next couple of weeks. A nudge here or there:cool:
Does anyone else look at a chart like this at this time of year and just mentally fantasise about that yellow ridge in the Atlantic stretching northward and an anticyclone breaking off over Greenland in the next frames of the run, like a blob of goo in a lava lamp?
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The 12z GFS shows some ridging attempting to establish itself from Iceland towards Greenland at 240h, before breaking down and being pushed away during the rest of the run. The ECM obviously stops at 240, but is this wishful thinking or is it leaving the door slightly more ajar than the GFS, given the ridging over Europe stretching further north into Scandinavia, and a larger intrusion of higher pressure into the Northwest Atlantic beyond Iceland? I think what's making it look so different in particular is that the LP centred over us at 240h is a good bit shallower on the ECM, and as such you can see the Euro high attempting to wrap the whole way around it and join the Atlantic ridge to its west.
It's only a very slight difference but the ECM chart has "interesting times ahead" written all over it far more so than the GFS. Confirmation bias or something worth keeping an eye on?
Comparison:
ECM:
GFS:
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squarecircles wrote: »
A very mild outlook alright.
National Outlook
Outlook is for colder than normal conditions to continue over the weekend and for the early days of next week with daytime temperatures in single figures and frosts most night.
Cold and frosty on Friday night with temperatures falling to between 0 and -3 Celsius inland with a hard frost and patchy mist and fog also.
Saturday: a cold bright start with frost clear, but fog may linger in places into the afternoon. Thickening cloud will bring rain into western counties in the afternoon but the eastern half of the country will hold generally dry. Highs of 4 to 8 degrees Celsius.
Frost in some eastern areas on Saturday night cloudier with rain at times further west.
Sunday: Cold with scattered outbreaks of rain for a time on Sunday gradually giving way to drier brighter conditions with some sunny breaks in the afternoon. High of 6 to 8 degrees Celsius in moderate northerly breezes, fresh on exposed coasts.
Cold and frosty on Sunday night with patchy mist and fog also with overnight lows of 0 to -3 degrees Celsius.
Monday and Tuesday: Latest indications are for cold conditions through Monday and Tuesday, bright and dry for many on Monday but some showers possible near the east coast. Very frosty for a time early Monday night but cloud and rain moving in off the Atlantic to affect western counties by Tuesday morning, extending eastwards during the day.
Latest indications suggest unsettled and cold conditions through mid-week
See I think you might be confusing the real world "outlook" with the "fantasy" outlook that is the staple of this thread.
I always find it amusing when you see posters give glum reactions about mild FI charts when the actual weather and real world outlook (4-5days) could be the type of weather they purport to find in FI.0 -
hatrickpatrick wrote: »Does anyone else look at a chart like this at this time of year and just mentally fantasise about that yellow ridge in the Atlantic stretching northward and an anticyclone breaking off over Greenland in the next frames of the run, like a blob of goo in a lava lamp?
NO !!0 -
See I think you might be confusing the real world "outlook" with the "fantasy" outlook that is the staple of this thread.
I always find it amusing when you see posters give glum reactions about mild FI charts when the actual weather and real world outlook (4-5days) could be the type of weather they purport to find in FI.
Well said neddy your interpretation of the long rang charts have always being 100 Percent correct so far on here keep it up0 -
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