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Storm Conditions Tuesday night/ Wednesday (Wind gusts from 100km/hr to 140km/hr)

  • 24-12-2011 1:02am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭


    Jean Byrne on the late bulletin mentioned that they're keeping an eye on a depression that will pass by the northwest late Tuesday and deepen further as it crosses Scotland Wednesday.

    Most of the models do show a low forming near the Azores during Monday as a cold plunge from Baffin Bay strengthens the southwesterly jetstream. The low travels northeastwards, strengthening as it does so, and passes to our northwest, en route to Scotland. There is a lot of variation in the models, and in fact the GEM shows no sign of such a system, instead building the Azores high over us instead. The ECMWF and BOM show the deepest system with the GFS and UKMO less intense. In any case, it is not yet at its deepest as it passes us, but it could bring some strong and possibly stormy winds to the northern half of the country as it deepens over Scotland. With its source near the Azores it will have abundant moisture, so could give decent rainfall depending on its exact track and speed.

    Could of course be nothing, but it is something to tide us over in an otherwise quiet time weatherwise! :rolleyes: Key factors influencing its evolution will be the extent of the cold plung from Baffin Bay and the exact development of the jet. All very sizeable factors in a data-sparse area, and we all know that these are what sent Joachim south a few weeks ago.

    186179.jpg


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    And Jean B also said the mild weather will return after this (potential) storm which means that high pressure to the south will rebuild. This is very ominous, believe me, I think we are getting stuck in a rut that could last up to 6-8 weeks and one of the mildest Januarys on record could be on the cards.
    Regards, Scrooge.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    And Jean B also said the mild weather will return after this (potential) storm which means that high pressure to the south will rebuild. This is very ominous, believe me, I think we are getting stuck in a rut that could last up to 6-8 weeks and one of the mildest Januarys on record could be on the cards.
    Regards, Scrooge.

    Even Scrooge came up trumps in the end ;) Keep the faith and I'l be smacking you with a snowball come January.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Not much going on for us in the latest runs, but it looks like possibly hurricane force winds in western Scotland during Wednesday, and possibly some wintry showers on hills in Ulster for a time.

    186183.gif

    It's a very complex upper pattern in mid Atlantic, near 25W, that will continue cause some uncertainty in how the low evolves, and it could go either way.

    72_38.gif


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Vedur.is shows it staing far enough offshore that it will not bother us as it tracks up Tuesday. It veers east tuesday night and heads towards the north sea. Were it to veer east sooner we would be smacked of a Tuesday. :(

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=wind
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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭YouTookMyName


    Windy out there now.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    12z run is still showing potential for gales or strong gales in northern areas for Wednesday:

    186243.png

    Even if this doesn't affect us directly, it is going to be interesting to monitor the development and track of this (potential) storm low.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    will this drag colder air behind it or is it too far north too really have a cold effect on us


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS brings strong winds to exposed northwest/north coasts, but nothing more than they are used to.

    More stormy conditions for Scotland.

    At least its something to follow anyway, things would need to change for there to be any significant impact here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yep GFS now going with a deeper system.

    ECM was first to predict this system being strong and the other models
    are slowly moving towards a consensus.

    Rtavn841.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    It's just getting into the Hirlam's 60 hour timeframe now, which has it forming from a pool of +50 °C theta-e due west of the Azores on Monday morning. What's keeping its track to our west is a building blocking high over France, which will reach up to 1045 hPa over the bext 36 hours, fed by a strong 200 mph jet. Any change in this blocking high will cause a shift in the depression's track, so we'll keep an eye on that.

    186247.png


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    delw wrote: »
    will this drag colder air behind it or is it too far north too really have a cold effect on us

    Looking like it will draw in some cooler air behind it:

    186252.jpg

    but nothing more than a watery, westerly based Pm (mP) air mass bringing a few weak showers, that may turn wintry esp on hills in the NW which is in keeping with the current trend this winter so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Here is the latest chart for the period of concern.

    Most models have this well off the north coast but still some time to change.

    Rtavn721.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Hi folks.

    Just to highlight that the GFS 12z is very firm with placing this further north however a glance at the control run and the ENS would illustrate that the track of this low could come further south.

    Here is an example to highlight.

    Obviously the OP run is more resolved and should have a better prediction but one to watch.

    gens-2-1-72.png?12


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I suppose the big variable...like the variable that affected the second storm last week that eventually went to Europe instead is how it is ingested and driven by the Jet Stream.

    Start with Tomorrow, strong system progress northwards driven by Jet.

    hgt300.png

    By Tuesday the Jetstrem is pronounced southerly rather than westerly and weakened. Unlikely to come right at us from the W or SW at that point and carried northwards past the west of Ireland

    hgt300.png

    Finally the whole stream moves east early weds, I'll show the 6z prognosis not the 12z. The storm is caught in a hole west of it and drifting slowly eastwards. We are caught in a NW - W airflow especially across the north of the country.

    hgt300.png

    Jetstream reforms and in conjunction with storm centred to Noreast blows some graupel across us from the NW on Thursday.

    hgt300.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Still looks like a Scotland event to me, with strong winds only for the exposed northwest coasts here, but nothing exceptional.

    Looking pretty consistent on the models, cant see a major track change at this stage myself.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Still looks like a Scotland event to me, with strong winds only for the exposed northwest coasts here, but nothing exceptional.

    Looking pretty consistent on the models, cant see a major track change at this stage myself.

    Yep, it's looking a little benign for us alright, just a breezy day for Malin Head! Still, at least it's something to look at!


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Not really Su Campu. There is a young buck in Choom crying out for a countrywide wind storm at this stage:p


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Not really Su Campu. There is a young buck in Choom crying out for a countrywide wind storm at this stage:p

    One day....one day....its coming to blow us all away!

    *shakes old book in the air*


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Just to reiterate this is beginning to look quite dangerous for some northern areas with gusts above 70 knots expected.

    Today we have high winds with Belmullet hitting a gust of 64knots


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Looks like the storm will not 'pause' over the north sea but will continue steadily into Scandinavia. This means high winds weds in the north ( Belmullet and points north) but potentially not for as long as previously forecast. It may be no worse than today in fact.

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=wind

    UKMO is issuing severe weather warnings for Scotland Weds and NOT for NI and Scotland Weds...this may of course change.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1
    Very strong winds will affect northern Britain on Wednesday, including the populated Central Lowlands of Scotland, bringing gusts of 60 to 70 mph with 80 mph in exposed areas. The public should be aware that this could cause disruption to transport.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    A little further south:eek:



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    Uploaded with ImageShack.us


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭mattser


    Scrolling quickly down these pages must be the closest thing possible to an acid trip !!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It's not looking particularly severe at this stage in the North and Northwest. The main thrust of violent storm force winds is almost certainly heading for coastal parts of Western Scotland. Having said that still very windy and blustery with strong gusts up to 110km/h in the Northern half of the country in exposed areas and less the further South one goes. Heavy blustery showers too driven well inland in on that strong wind. And turning significantly colder for a time too though that won't last long. Some of the showers could turn wintry later on Wednesday mostly over high ground.

    Rtavn423.png



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    Rtavn489.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Away from Donegal where it could get very windy, I think the main impact of this event will be its cold front sweeping across the country late Tuesday, and potentially squally showers with that, and then what the public will most likely notice in Dublin and the south in general, the much colder temperatures on Wednesday during the daytime hours. For most this will be more of a moderate than a strong wind event but we can't rule out localized severe gusts if there's a squally front involved.

    But looking forward, we seem to be edging back into the set-up of early to mid December which favoured strong wind events. It would just take a bit of gradient enhancement to get into some very strong wind situations in early to mid January.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Away from Donegal where it could get very windy, I think the main impact of this event will be its cold front sweeping across the country late Tuesday, and potentially squally showers with that, and then what the public will most likely notice in Dublin and the south in general, the much colder temperatures on Wednesday during the daytime hours. For most this will be more of a moderate than a strong wind event but we can't rule out localized severe gusts if there's a squally front involved.

    But looking forward, we seem to be edging back into the set-up of early to mid December which favoured strong wind events. It would just take a bit of gradient enhancement to get into some very strong wind situations in early to mid January.

    +1. All it takes is one of these developing depressions to hitch a ride on the jet stream and steer the cyclones on a more easterly course rather then the usual passage up by Iceland. And given the jet stream is aimed at us like a big vindictive finger atm that's a real possibility. Hope it buckles soon though and we get more amplification for some blocking high to develop down the road preferably in an advantageous location for coldies looking for snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Away from Donegal where it could get very windy, I think the main impact of this event will be its cold front sweeping across the country late Tuesday, and potentially squally showers with that, and then what the public will most likely notice in Dublin and the south in general, the much colder temperatures on Wednesday during the daytime hours. For most this will be more of a moderate than a strong wind event but we can't rule out localized severe gusts if there's a squally front involved.

    But looking forward, we seem to be edging back into the set-up of early to mid December which favoured strong wind events. It would just take a bit of gradient enhancement to get into some very strong wind situations in early to mid January.

    Hi MT,

    If we seem to be edging back into more stormy/windy scenarios, this would indicate that the Atlantic/Jet Stream is fully in charge, would it not?

    How does this tally with your prediction of much colder weather from the 7th January 2012? Or are you thinking of issuing a revised winter forecast?

    PS, love the daily weather reports and they are appreciated! :)

    D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The Jet Stream by itself can hardly be forecast weekly never mind seasonally. Unfair question !!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Storm low really beginning to wind up now.

    Fax analysis sequence from 12z yester to 06z today: (in 6hr increments)

    llao.gif

    The UK Met show pressure values within the low at 980 hPa at 06, which represents a 6hr fall of 15 hPa between 00z and 06z this morning and a 12hr fall of 23 hPa up to 06z.

    Meteocenter.com have 06z reading at 983 hPa (image attached, too large to post up) while a ship reading of 991 hPa is Ogimet's lowest; the same ship was reporting mean wind speeds of 52 kt at 06z, which is a full storm 10.

    Have only looked at the EMHI model this morning but there seems to be a slight upgrade for stormy conditions to set in tomorrow morning in the NW & N:

    186360.png

    Pretty much bog standard breezy for everywhere else though (yet again :rolleyes:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Just showed on sky news there they had winds up to 125mph in norway


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It's not really a storm unless Dublin is affected in some way, shape or form:p


This discussion has been closed.
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