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The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,837 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,020 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    silverharp wrote: »

    Since the krakatoa volcano has been mentioned there's also increased activity being recorded in Iceland.




  • Strange, we seem to have been stuck on 77% for about a week now and zero sunspots.

    spaceweather.com
    Sunspot number: 0
    What is the sunspot number?
    Updated 24 Apr 2020

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 19 days
    2020 total: 89 days (77%)
    2019 total: 281 days (77%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)
    2016 total: 32 days (9%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,152 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Strange, we seem to have been stuck on 77% for about a week now and zero sunspots.

    spaceweather.com

    89/115 is 77.39%
    88/114 is 77.19%
    87/113 is 76.99%
    86/112 is 76.78%
    85/111 is 76.57%

    So for five days in a row, rounding would give 77%.




  • blanch152 wrote: »
    89/115 is 77.39%
    88/114 is 77.19%
    87/113 is 76.99%
    86/112 is 76.78%
    85/111 is 76.57%

    So for five days in a row, rounding would give 77%.
    Just goes to show why resetting the counters at the start of the year is so inaccurate.
    It really should be a rolling average over a set number of days.


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  • Mathematically, according to spaceweather, we are now officially in the deepest solar minimum since the start of the "space age".


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    Could explain why we haven't had the "April Showers" we used to always have up to about 2 or 3 years ago. Sunshine and downpours.

    Could explain why now we get winter and straight to Summer.

    When you want to fertilise the lawn ye can't because there's no bloody rain! :D




  • Not exactly sunspot related, but still a good video (robbed from cool vids & Pics forum)

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1261182070065451009


  • Posts: 0 Amari Narrow Ax


    Not exactly sunspot related, but still a good video (robbed from cool vids & Pics forum)

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1261182070065451009




    What speed is that travelling at!


  • Registered Users Posts: 821 ✭✭✭lapua20grain




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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,492 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Magnetometeorology: Relationships Between the Weather and Earth's Magnetic Field.
    If Earth's magnetic field influences' meteorological phenomena, long-term changes in the geomagnetic field should produce corresponding changes in climate. Figure 2 shows, in the upper section, the variation of the magnetic inclination at Paris since about 700 A.D. The lower section shows 50-yr averages of the temperatures prevailing in central England since about 900 A.D. These two sets of data exhibit similar variations. The"Little Ice Age" (Lamb, 1966) that occurred in Britain during the period 1550 to 1850 A.D. is clearly associated with an epoch of high magnetic particles, it does point to the need for further studies of this kind.

    source


    Satellites and spacecraft malfunction as Earth's magnetic field mysteriously weakens
    Scientists are finding that the weakening is causing technical problems for satellites, and seems to be growing in its effects.

    Earth's magnetic field, which is vital to protecting life on our planet from solar radiation, is mysteriously weakening.

    On average the planet's magnetic field has lost almost 10% of its strength over the last two centuries, but there is a large localised region of weakness stretching from Africa to South America.

    Known as the South Atlantic Anomaly, the field strength in this area has rapidly shrunk over the past 50 years just as the area itself has grown and moved westward.

    source

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    I remember watching a Documentary on this years ago, amazing to be actually live in this time.

    So much could influence the Earths climate too such as this and the low solar activity and I really feel the Climatologists and their Global warming religion is just way too narrow minded with Co2 this and Co2 that.

    Though in areas with a weak magnetic field could see a much greater instance of skin cancer.




  • I remember watching a Documentary on this years ago, amazing to be actually live in this time.

    So much could influence the Earths climate too such as this and the low solar activity and I really feel the Climatologists and their Global warming religion is just way too narrow minded with Co2 this and Co2 that.

    Though in areas with a weak magnetic field could see a much greater instance of skin cancer.
    CO2 is just an indicator that CO2 is being produced faster than it is being absorbed, nothing more than that really.

    The possible affects of a deep solar minimum are becoming clearer as noted in previous posts, one other factor is the weakening magnetic field has been to allow more radiation to penetrate further into the upper atmosphere and changing cloud formation as well as having what appears to be a stabilising affect on the jet stream.

    During the last minimum around 2010, we had two extended periods of stable Arctic jet-stream which resulted on two extended periods of excessively cold weather.

    We have just come to the end of a longer than usual period of warm weather.


    Could we see an extended period of Arctic air this winter?


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    CO2 is just an indicator that CO2 is being produced faster than it is being absorbed, nothing more than that really.

    The possible affects of a deep solar minimum are becoming clearer as noted in previous posts, one other factor is the weakening magnetic field has been to allow more radiation to penetrate further into the upper atmosphere and changing cloud formation as well as having what appears to be a stabilising affect on the jet stream.

    During the last minimum around 2010, we had two extended periods of stable Arctic jet-stream which resulted on two extended periods of excessively cold weather.

    We have just come to the end of a longer than usual period of warm weather.


    Could we see an extended period of Arctic air this winter?

    Well we could have seen it this year if the recent high had have been in November - February. Except we got battered with low after low with tonnes of rain and hardly any rain here where I am since March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,837 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    only a sample of one but given that "plagues" of locusts seem to be thing this year, there also was one in 2010 that was record breaking. Could be nothing, maybe some country every year has the worst plague evar or might they be tied in weather shifts brought on by changes in solar output?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/australia-faces-worst-plague-of-locusts-in-75-years-2089919.html
    Australia faces worst plague of locusts in 75 years
    Ideal breeding conditions for grasshoppersare expected to cost farmers billions
    By Paul Rodgers
    Sunday 26 September 2010 00:00

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭ Bristol Fancy Duet


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Scot Chapman walks through the Grand Solar Min, and its effects on the Heliosphere and Volcanoes and the earth in general in this video.
    Its really well done, I find it interesting.

    But a cup of tea and settle in to watch video, Enjoy!:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGVJWC-l-E&t=1484s

    sh1t , , this is not good in any way


  • Registered Users Posts: 27 Ckit1


    Recent timelapse video from NASA - 'A Decade of Sun' - 2010~2020

    Interesting to watch (sped up) the quiet sun firing up, during the middle years of the decade, until it moderates again towards the recent/imminent solar minimum.

    https://youtu.be/l3QQQu7QLoM
    l3QQQu7QLoM


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,837 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    hmmm! , I don't know how unusual this is, but this southern Norway not the Artic, similar latitude to the Orkney Islands, is the Sun broken?

    https://twitter.com/ZdenekNejedly/status/1279109846370004995

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    You’d know if it was hot and unusual the media would be all over it but cold events are not news worthy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,333 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    The sudden global reduction of carbon emissions since March will have an effect on the atmosphere


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    The sudden global reduction of carbon emissions since March will have an effect on the atmosphere

    What sort of effect?




  • The sudden global reduction of carbon emissions since March will have an effect on the atmosphere
    I don't know about "carbon emissions", but, particulate pollution dropped dramatically in many urban areas resulting is a vast improvement in air quality when the lockdown happened.


    Global CO2 levels have hardly moved, local levels measured at street level did (briefly) drop.


    The reduction in air travel would have had the greatest affects on the upper atmosphere as there would be far fewer aircraft seeding contrails.


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    I would be far more concerned with all the plastic entering the Oceans and the food chain than some CO2 in the Atmosphere + the PM 2.5 from Diesel exhaust, this is having a much greater impact with no sign of the Government tackling this by reducing tax on Petrol and making Diesel much more expensive and also new diesel cars, they still have a Co2 based tax system and this is ridiculous as Co2 is a non toxic gas in the environment and harmless to human health and good for plants, trees etc but oh no they still allow new diesel cars with no extra taxes and penalise the Person buying the cleaner Petrol car, you couldn't make the sh1t up if you tried.

    The Global temps have hardly moved in relation to increased Co2, sure weather patterns have changed somewhat but this can be linked to past solar minimum and I expect we will see more and more chaotic weather events the longer the Sun sleeps.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    I would be far more concerned with all the plastic entering the Oceans and the food chain than some CO2 in the Atmosphere + the PM 2.5 from Diesel exhaust, this is having a much greater impact with no sign of the Government tackling this by reducing tax on Petrol and making Diesel much more expensive and also new diesel cars, they still have a Co2 based tax system and this is ridiculous as Co2 is a non toxic gas in the environment and harmless to human health and good for plants, trees etc but oh no they still allow new diesel cars with no extra taxes and penalise the Person buying the cleaner Petrol car, you couldn't make the sh1t up if you tried.

    The Global temps have hardly moved in relation to increased Co2, sure weather patterns have changed somewhat but this can be linked to past solar minimum and I expect we will see more and more chaotic weather events the longer the Sun sleeps.

    It's a system based on the efficiency of diesel vs petrol, the deficiency has changed with increased technology particularly in the hybrid market.

    France tried to change abbeit after people bought diesel as it was long touted as the lesser evil of combustion engines, I would say in general it wont be too easy for have a model shift from pro diesel to pro petrol.

    I'm against taxation to deter consumers, they generally tend to be a working class tax like tobacco and alcohol. If there is justified concern for the nations health then ban them.
    There is also no indication that tax deters consumers. Education and alternatives work a whole lot better.


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Gloria Great Goose-step


    Nabber wrote: »
    It's a system based on the efficiency of diesel vs petrol, the deficiency has changed with increased technology particularly in the hybrid market.

    No it's not a system based on efficiency it's a system based on a tax created to make Ireland do what the rest of Europe were doing for fear of looking bad for not doing the same.
    Nabber wrote: »
    France tried to change abbeit after people bought diesel as it was long touted as the lesser evil of combustion engines, I would say in general it wont be too easy for have a model shift from pro diesel to pro petrol.

    You're correct it won't be as easy because it would mess everything up, first tax was based on ending CC, next on Co2 and to change it to proper pollution tax would mean another change. So the best way is to electrification, as an ev owner for 5 and a half years I wouldn't go back to Petrol or Diesel again, the range is good enough now, 400 odd kms is the new norm from 100 Kms back in 2011. The cost needs to come down more + there needs to be more EV models to choose + there needs to be a lot more of the fast DC public chargers installed, the Government are not doing much here and the ESB are seriously dragging their heals.
    Nabber wrote: »
    I'm against taxation to deter consumers, they generally tend to be a working class tax like tobacco and alcohol. If there is justified concern for the nations health then ban them.
    There is also no indication that tax deters consumers. Education and alternatives work a whole lot better.

    Tax does change people's habits, for instance, over night when the Co2 tax system was introduced there was a substantial shift to much higher polluting diesel cars.

    Hybrids are fine but they are old tech, for instance, there is not much difference to Toyota's Hybrid system since 2004, they're still using tiny NiMh batteries, the greatest change has come from tweaking the ICE not from the hybrid system and their main source of power is still the ICE so they consume mostly Petrol.

    Electrics on the other hand can use the ever increasing amount of Green electricity on the grid + the electricity doesn't have to be refined from oil like Petrol and diesel which consumes a large amount of energy.

    We all know what VW did to fool people into thinking their Diesels were clean, of course this was much more of an issue in the USA where their emissions standards are far higher than in the E.U, it wasn't just VW of course, then we had the car tests, former NEDC which was a farce and allowed the car manufacturers build cars that were much higher polluting than should have been because the test system didn't reflect actual real driving.

    The Amount of PM 2.5 and Nox emissions from cars would be incredibly higher in the E.U than allowed in the USA if the car manufacturers selling cars in the E.U had to adhere to the same standards years ago diesels would have been banned years ago.

    So my gripe is that there is still nothing happening to stop the sale of these diesel cars in Ireland by making new Diesels taxed much higher, for instance, VRT on new diesels should reflect the fact that they are the most polluting form of transport available, tax on Petrol should be lowered and increased on Diesel.

    So many People buying new diesels to drive around town and cities which is the worst place and form of driving for Diesels when they are at their most inefficient and highest polluting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Running 365 day % total of spotless days since January 2000 to the end of June this year (2020)

    CgBZaRT.png

    To date, the highest running % value of the current 'cycle' peaked 84.4% between 27th and 30th May this year, while the top value in the previous event topped out at 80.8% in the last week of June 2009.

    Current value up to today (July 5th 2020) is 80.3% in a slightly falling trend.

    Data from: http://www.sidc.be/silso/home

    Edit: Date of graph should read January 2000 and not January 2020...

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    There are new images from the Solar Orbiter and they are looking at a new feature: "campfires".
    Solar_Orbiter_s_first_view_of_the_Sun_article.jpg
    The first images from Solar Orbiter, a new Sun-observing mission by ESA and NASA, have revealed omnipresent miniature solar flares, dubbed ‘campfires’, near the surface of our closest star.

    “The campfires are little relatives of the solar flares that we can observe from Earth, million or billion times smaller,” says David Berghmans of the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB), Principal Investigator of the EUI instrument, which takes high-resolution images of the lower layers of the Sun’s atmosphere, known as the solar corona. “The Sun might look quiet at the first glance, but when we look in detail, we can see those miniature flares everywhere we look.”
    “These campfires are totally insignificant each by themselves, but summing up their effect all over the Sun, they might be the dominant contribution to the heating of the solar corona,” says Frédéric Auchère, of the Institut d'Astrophysique Spatiale (IAS), France, Co-Principal Investigator of EUI.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    For scale

    Solar_Orbiter_spots_campfires_on_the_Sun_annotated_article.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Running percentage of spotless days over the last year:

    zy5LvnZ.png

    Current 365 day % value is standing at a steady 73.2% but within a broader falling trend.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,686 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    We are officially into Solar Cycle 25 according to NOAA..

    https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle

    They state that solar minimum occurred in December 2019 and we are heading towards a solar maximum in 2025.

    They predict solar cycle 25 to be small but similar to solar cycle 24. They are not expecting there to be any Maunder type minimum approaching after that.

    But then again these solar predictions are very hard to make so anything is still possible in that respect, and we will probably know a lot more when this cycle progresses to see how right they are.


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