Rolex spotting

Faith+1 · 04-07-2019 12:05am

Layton Howling Mumps wrote: »

One day you will look back on this purchase and think you were being so restrained. Once that mental barrier is breached, the floodgates open and soon a Platinium Daytona will be on your wrist Well wear, the ND sub is a truely iconic watch, money in the bank, and a flight home or cost of a lawyer anywhere in the world.

Never looked at it that way Fitzgeme. Great comment, thanks.

Never posted in the watch forum in all my years on Boards ( maybe once) and I have to say everyone here is really helpful and considerate. So thank you all.

Ill post a pic of my watch tomorrow to show u guys/gals.

punk_one82 · 04-07-2019 1:49am

Faith+1 wrote: »

Yeah Ive been wearing it all evening and truth be told I love it. I own 2 Omegas, a Seamaster and Speedy and as beautiful as they are the Rolex just feels and wears better? Its kinda hard to explain, the oyster bracelet just feels so much more comfortable compared to the others? Plus the quality of the case, in house movement and all the little details that Rolex puts into the piece, Its amazing tbh. You really get your value for money.

Definitely happy with my purchase. Was surprised they gave me the cards as I heard AD's would hold onto them for a year and then post them out though? To stop people flipping.

Congratulations on your purchase! I'm incredibly envious that you managed to get one through an AD.

[Deleted User] · 04-07-2019 9:36am

Faith+1 wrote: »

Yeah Ive been wearing it all evening and truth be told I love it. I own 2 Omegas, a Seamaster and Speedy and as beautiful as they are the Rolex just feels and wears better? Its kinda hard to explain, the oyster bracelet just feels so much more comfortable compared to the others? Plus the quality of the case, in house movement and all the little details that Rolex puts into the piece, Its amazing tbh. You really get your value for money.

Definitely happy with my purchase. Was surprised they gave me the cards as I heard AD's would hold onto them for a year and then post them out though? To stop people flipping.

Congrats on your watch. While a Rolex sub is a great watch to have whatever the model I've always preferred the no date subs myself. The 114060 is lovely.

I'd never heard about ADs holding back the papers like that - interesting - not saying it could never happen but it would annoy me if so. If I buy it it's mine. That said, they can make the rules and if I don't like them I don't have to buy it.

But I don't see why the AD or Rolex would or should care what you do with it after you walk out of the shop. Rolex manage primary supply to maintain strong pricing and increases by limiting supply and the second-hand trade doesn't affect them doing so successfully. If anything it supports their market position generally.

Jude13 · 04-07-2019 6:37pm

ecoli3136 wrote: »

Congrats on your watch. While a Rolex sub is a great watch to have whatever the model I've always preferred the no date subs myself. The 114060 is lovely.

I'd never heard about ADs holding back the papers like that - interesting - not saying it could never happen but it would annoy me if so. If I buy it it's mine. That said, they can make the rules and if I don't like them I don't have to buy it.

But I don't see why the AD or Rolex would or should care what you do with it after you walk out of the shop. Rolex manage primary supply to maintain strong pricing and increases by limiting supply and the second-hand trade doesn't affect them doing so successfully. If anything it supports their market position generally.

When I got my ceramic gmt Pepsi last year they showed me the papers and have me a copy and will provide the originals 12 months from date of purchase. In an AD in Ireland

Faith+1 · 05-07-2019 10:47am

Jude13 wrote: »

When I got my ceramic gmt Pepsi last year they showed me the papers and have me a copy and will provide the originals 12 months from date of purchase. In an AD in Ireland

Yep, I knew it went on. They did take the tags and plastic covering off my watch though, obviously to stop me flipping it as brand new.

The sales assistant told me the waiting list has grown even more since last September when I joined the list. She said they get plenty of walk ins on a daily basis looking so s/s models and when they're told there's a long waiting list they make up a sob story to see if they can bypass it.

The story she told me was 2 years ago a chap called in looking for a s/s Daytona. He was told he'd be waiting 8-10 years to acquire one so he said his very sick son always wanted one because it was his dream watch. They fell for it hook line and sinker and got him one about a year later.

What did he do? He went to another well known Jewellers ( a very close one to Weirs) and sold it there the next day for a jacked up price. The Jewellers rang Weirs to tell them what the story was and ever since they don't move anyone up the list no matter the story. As she said herself, "We tried to do a nice thing and were taken advantage off, so never again".

Weirs make a judgement if someone is gonna flip it or not and use their discretion to issue the cards or not. Because I bought 2 Omega's and few other bits from them over the years I assume that's why they gave me the cards straight away :pac:

Was told they're a 4 year wait for a GMT Pepsi.

btkm8unsl0w5r4 · 05-07-2019 12:28pm

Faith+1 wrote: »

"We tried to do a nice thing and were taken advantage off, so never again".

See I have an issue with this though process. The AD was not taken advantage of, they sold a watch at retail. They made no loss, they only allowed the buyer make a profit. The bull**** story the chap told them is not more of a bull**** story than they tell their customers every day.

They keep waiting lists, but the lists are not a fair queue, where every person goes on the list and then gets their correct turn when the time comes. No the AD grade you on the list. They decide if you are worth to get the watch. Now I understand this, big customers are given priority, customers that come in a buy big depreciation items, and thats just business. But if the AD starts giving me the sob stories I just cant take that.

Faith+1 · 05-07-2019 1:04pm

Layton Howling Mumps wrote: »

See I have an issue with this though process. The AD was not taken advantage of, they sold a watch at retail. They made no loss, they only allowed the buyer make a profit. The bull**** story the chap told them is not more of a bull**** story than they tell their customers every day.

They keep waiting lists, but the lists are not a fair queue, where every person goes on the list and then gets their correct turn when the time comes. No the AD grade you on the list. They decide if you are worth to get the watch. Now I understand this, big customers are given priority, customers that come in a buy big depreciation items, and thats just business. But if the AD starts giving me the sob stories I just cant take that.

I agree completely. I think their rationale is that they can only sell the watch for retail and no more. The fact somebody can make a few grand on their purchase is obviously their issue. The joys of capitalism :pac:

Eoin · 05-07-2019 1:56pm

This contrived shortage and the resulting ridiculous waiting lists has totally put me off considering another Rolex. It's a mass produced watch FFS, not some once off hand-built piece by a single watchmaker. Making people feel privileged for the opportunity to handover thousands just seems mental to me.

Oafley Jones · 05-07-2019 2:01pm

Eoin wrote: »

This contrived shortage and the resulting ridiculous waiting lists has totally put me off considering another Rolex. It's a mass produced watch FFS, not some once off hand-built piece by a single watchmaker. Making people feel privileged for the opportunity to handover thousands just seems mental to me.

It’ll blow up eventually, like all these things do. Every second post on TRF is concerned with value and investment potential. It’s ridiculous and massively exposed when you consider the lower estimate for Rolex production is 800k units per year.

Cyrus · 05-07-2019 2:03pm

Eoin wrote: »

This contrived shortage and the resulting ridiculous waiting lists has totally put me off considering another Rolex. It's a mass produced watch FFS, not some once off hand-built piece by a single watchmaker. Making people feel privileged for the opportunity to handover thousands just seems mental to me.

is it contrived?

btkm8unsl0w5r4 · 05-07-2019 2:13pm

There are good buys out there in Rolex...just get your mind away from Batman/batwoman/pepsi/hulk and SS Daytona and there is some value to be had, there is a lot more to the lineup than SS sports.

I have a pretty expensive watch collection but when I walk into an AD with me belly and my jeans they treat me like dirt, and I am pretty pissed off about it. In a lot of sales of luxury goods like cars the sales people are trained to watch out for the poorly dressed men with nice watches, they are the ones with money to spend.

The grey market dealers treat you with more respect cause they actually have something to sell you. Tudor might be one to watch, they make a nice watch and I could see the rolex high tide lift them, but the branding is not a luxury as Rolex.

[Deleted User] · 05-07-2019 2:14pm

Jude13 wrote: »

When I got my ceramic gmt Pepsi last year they showed me the papers and have me a copy and will provide the originals 12 months from date of purchase. In an AD in Ireland

Faith+1 wrote: »

Yep, I knew it went on. They did take the tags and plastic covering off my watch though, obviously to stop me flipping it as brand new.Because I bought 2 Omega's and few other bits from them over the years I assume that's why they gave me the cards straight away :pac:

Was told they're a 4 year wait for a GMT Pepsi.

Interesting thanks for sharing lads.

I've bought a couple of 'decent' watches from Weirs but not a Rolex.

One was an Omega Aquaterra 2500, must be 10 years ago now, more recently a Grand Seiko SBGA211. I walked out with full papers, tags etc. but in fairness, it may not be like for like insofar as both of those watches depreciated massively the minute I handed over the cash, unlike a Rolex sub/GMT or whatever.

Sounds like it's a practice adopted by the dealer? Thinking it through, I suppose if you put your new watch up for sale it would be bought by someone who would otherwise 'have' to buy one from them, so they lose the sale to that person.

My impression was that the market for Rolex divers/GMT/Daytona was just so strong that they wouldn't be bothered about that. Maybe this is not entirely the full picture.

Jude13 · 07-07-2019 11:34am

I have the tags and the plastic bezel cover, just not the original papers yet. Its the third rolex I've bought and the first time they have done this, as they says it was a rolex instruction for watches that have long waiting lists.

Doesn't bother me as I have no intention of seeing it in the year and the papers are in a safe place.

Marcusm · 08-07-2019 8:33pm

Cyrus wrote: »

is it contrived?

Even 15 years ago I can remember supply constraints on SS sports models at Rolex resulting in above RRP sales etc. There is no real constraint on manufacturing capacity and there has to be a question as to whether there is a determined supply shortage. Other businesses might adjust supply over time to keep AD prices closer to grey market prices. The significant gap and/or supply constraints (18 month waiting lists seem to be quoted quite often) result in an artificial market.

oxocube · 12-07-2019 11:31am

Nearly bought two of these :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

https://prideandpinion.com/collections/watches/products/rolex-sea-dweller-16600-comex

Time · 12-07-2019 12:15pm

oxocube wrote: »

Nearly bought two of these :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

https://prideandpinion.com/collections/watches/products/rolex-sea-dweller-16600-comex

I'd say theres an extra zero at the end of that price that shouldn't be there.

Homer · 12-07-2019 5:05pm

Time wrote: »

I'd say theres an extra zero at the end of that price that shouldn't be there.

The way things have been going lately nothing would surprise me

Wibbs · 12-07-2019 5:54pm

Personally I'd be extremely wary of the vintage market at the moment, particularly with high ticket items, as naturally there would be more to loose. Some models have long been very hard to avoid getting a dodgy one. Vintage Omega Seamaster 600's would be one, Heuer Bunds another, though this is spreading to other brands.

In one recent Hodinkee bring a loupe article in the comments a poster questioned a particular watch that had been listed. It seems it was his as he recognised it from the case and bracelet scratches, but now with a different dial. The author of the article replied that it was all too common within the trade that dials got swapped out for more sought after models and that there were quite a lot of frankenwatches. Other posters were "say it isn't so" rather than taking that in. I suppose we have to have some level of shared confidence in the market. On top of that there are the redials. Some are truly awful, some are much better and some are very hard to tell apart from the real thing. The same Hodinkee articles feature redials on the regular and pronounce them sound.

Oafley Jones · 13-07-2019 11:35am

I was in the great hope of Rolex steel hunters yesterday in Amsterdam. Five watches in the Rolex boutique in Schiphol. That’s in total. One new 36mm DJ with black dial and domed bezel (which I really liked, but honestly felt a bit small)) and the rest were diamond monstrosities. Even vanilla bi-metals and precious metals weren’t to be found. The sales lady looked bored out of her skull.

btkm8unsl0w5r4 · 13-07-2019 6:34pm

Rolex have not cut production, so the dealers are getting as many watches as they ever did. Its just thanks to the careful curation of the market, they no have basically every watch sold before they get it. The sales people have nothing to sell to the walk in customer, but the sales numbers are better than ever, its just people coming in to pick up preordered watches. The dealer I talk to says its really trickled down, to the gold watches, the two tone and the date justs etc.

People are hoovering Rolex up but not crossing into other brands at all. The general consensus is that nearly every other brand is suffering badly because people cannot see past the crown. I have a feeling people will write about this totally dysfunctional market and the genius moves made in the past that have allow this monopoly to flourish, in economics books of the future..

Oafley Jones · 13-07-2019 7:08pm

I’m not sure they haven’t cut production. The current estimate of 800k is down from the height of 1 - 1.2 million per annum. There’s been more than enough stories of ADs complaining of cut supply across the entire range and not just in steel sports. A Day Date is at the BTO point at the moment.

Otherwise, I agree. I do think this is mistake if Rolex aren’t course correcting. People do seem to be genuinely pissed off with the brand and there’s always the possibility that this desirability could snap back, with the brand becoming naff again when the correction comes.

btkm8unsl0w5r4 · 13-07-2019 7:45pm

I think they have cut SS production but not overall, they are at maximium capacity with no intention of increasing capacity. AD's are complaining because they could sell twice what they are getting and they hate to see people pushed to the grey market and secondary market.

They certify 800k movements each year through cosc which is a verifiable number bandied around and I hear the 1.2mil number spoken of too, but because if the opaque way rolex works the real numbers are open to speculation. According to "Bark and Jack" production has been 100% pinned for a long while.

The thing is they are a commodity now. As for becoming naff again. They were never naff, only the people who bought them. The watches haven't changed much at all mostly bucking the trends in fashion. Seeing as everyone is buying them now, and half the watches out there are real, fake or homage rolex, its unlikely to flip flop.

Seeing as Rolex is basically the swiss watch industry now, they may well decide now what is naff and what is not. Its not healthy, and its not good for collectors, but I am coming to think that this is not a classic bubble, because there is lots of demand and lots of supply, but cannot stay as it forever.

Cyrus · 13-07-2019 7:53pm

Same phenomenon with steel Pateks

I think the rise of the Asian middle class is the main factor

We were in the cafe in bt on Friday and an Asian family was beside us , bags full of Hermes and Chanel and lots of nice watches young fella beside me had a meteorite dial white gold gmt and some off white nike collab trainers

They have lots of cash and are very happy to spend it

btkm8unsl0w5r4 · 13-07-2019 8:12pm

Yep they have the numbers alright. Gold pepsi with meteorite dial...thats quite a heavy hitter. Its almost as if Rolex dont care what a few broke Irishmen think of their business model.

893bet · 13-07-2019 8:52pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Same phenomenon with steel Pateks

I think the rise of the Asian middle class is the main factor

We were in the cafe in bt on Friday and an Asian family was beside us , bags full of Hermes and Chanel and lots of nice watches young fella beside me had a meteorite dial white gold gmt and some off white nike collab trainers

They have lots of cash and are very happy to spend it

Nautilus and aquanaut gone particularly mental.

I have been watching 5167 closely and it has gone on WF from 24k to 38k in 12 months. Crazy inflation for a steel uncomplicated piece. Much of the demand is fuelled by profit seekers no doubt but there is a lot of pent up demand from the average person. Can’t see a massive overnight drop but a market correction is surely realistic.

I am gonna jump off the BLNR train I think. Quality piece but too flashy for my tastes. Prefer stealth.

893bet · 13-07-2019 8:56pm

Layton Howling Mumps wrote: »

Yep they have the numbers alright. Gold pepsi with meteorite dial...thats quite a heavy hitter. Its almost as if Rolex dont care what a few broke Irishmen think of their business model.

It’s a 35k model.

Rolex have not changed their production, a couple of really good Basel world releases coupled with a lot growth in demand fuelled by Asia.

Even Omega are profiting by this and are managing certain online releases very well which are maintaining value. They are working to decrease the amount of discounting I think.

Wibbs · 13-07-2019 10:16pm

Layton Howling Mumps wrote: »

As for becoming naff again. They were never naff, only the people who bought them.

+1 FG and it was actually a pretty short period of time where that was the case, the 70's and 80's really(the quartz popularity even among high end pieces might have influenced this to some degree) and it was particular models, nearly always gold, or two tone. Something like a Submariner was never naff, because that's not what naff buyers wanted. Spreading into markets outside their traditional ones(the UK and her ex colonies mostly) like the US gave them one helluva boost and now the Asian markets have really opened up to them in particular.

Hans Wilsdorf was one of the true geniuses and giants of 20th century marketing and also made sure the quality aspect backed it up. Even after his death the company has never put a foot wrong really. Even the way they rarely innovate in design language and haven't for years(not since the 70's really) is a stroke of genius. It was touch and go back then when modernism was in full swing(they even internally prototyped an LED Rolex, but killed it early on realising they couldn't compete in that market), but has been proved to be the right way to go about things after the Swiss industry came back with the rebirth of the mechanical watch. They kept their core of barely changing solidity and authenticity to the brand which resonates even more in the so called post modernist world where changes come thick and fast and we're a lot more suspicious of them than we were when we thought the future was everything.

As far as bubbles go, IMHO there is a wider bubble in the watch world, certainly in vintage and there it has already started to contract with high prices, less stock to sell and fewer selling unless discounted. I'd be willing to bet the general new sales are contracting too, except for a few companies like Omega and especially Rolex which are currently a market unto themselves. How it will pan out is up in the air. It certainly has many of the hallmarks of a bubble, but with Rolex and with few exceptions in their century long history I'd not bet against them. You really have to hand it to them on near every level.

If I were to bet, I'm wondering will their gold pieces come back in with a bang? With fakes getting less fake looking and that's likely only to get worse, a gold Rolex is a lot harder to fake(other than Benidorm specials with Rollox on the dial I've never seen a "proper" fake gold piece?). The gold itself can be assayed, so even if the rest of it was dodgy you'd still have a fair chunk of 18kt on your wrist.

Wibbs · 13-07-2019 10:18pm

893bet wrote: »

Even Omega are profiting by this and are managing certain online releases very well which are maintaining value.

I do wonder though if their limited edition thing nigh on every time you turn around might hurt them in the longer term?

893bet · 13-07-2019 10:34pm

Wibbs wrote: »

I do wonder though if their limited edition thing nigh on every time you turn around might hurt them in the longer term?

100% it’s just the odd one that they seem to be managing well, speedmaster Tuesday 1 and speedmaster Tuesday 2 ultraman.

btkm8unsl0w5r4 · 13-07-2019 10:47pm

893bet wrote: »

Nautilus and aquanaut gone particularly mental.

I have been watching 5167 closely and it has gone on WF from 24k to 38k in 12 months. Crazy inflation for a steel uncomplicated piece. Much of the demand is fuelled by profit seekers no doubt but there is a lot of pent up demand from the average person. Can’t see a massive overnight drop but a market correction is surely realistic.

I am gonna jump off the BLNR train I think. Quality piece but too flashy for my tastes. Prefer stealth.

5167 will go well above 45k IMHO. Patek just dont give a fcuk and limit supply like nobodies business. Because they sit above Rolex, any softening in prices will be well telegraphed by Rolex beforehand.

Wibbs - Your point on gold is very valid, and again I though that myself, there has to be be some return to intrinsic value, look at the price of a gold daytona versus a ceramic ss, its flipping nuts.

Funny world where a a simple blue/black bezel 40mm stainless is flashy. An honestly they are not....it just that they are the "poster" boy of the Rolex craziness. If I were holding one without attachment I would ditch it. I picked up a black black black GMT2 for that very reason, its discontinued and a little more under the radar while still being recognizable...its creeping up but I have seen BNLR's creeping down a touch.

Wibbs vintage scare the living daylights out of me, you need a depth of knowledge to swim with those sharks that is impossible to develop as a regular punter.

Omega are only popular among omega collectors, and the limited editions are going nuts. The joke going is that Omega are more excited about the moon landings than NASA. I love omega as a brand and I think their watches are lovely, however the only watch I would buy (and will buy anyone selling?) would be an original speed master professional moonwatch, manual, hessalite. Everything else is either too soft, or some limited edition that only 1000 people in the world could be bothered with.

Rolex spotting

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