Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

Bass Reeves · 14-11-2019 10:38pm

wrangler wrote: »

''Something had to be done'' is no motive for doing something stupid.
I hope they've learnt a lesson but I don't think they have, physically kicking factory personnel and then wondering why no one is interested in arranging another meeting.
You couldn't make it up
They were very fortunate that Brexit didn't happen

It's nothing like the kicking the processor's will get from.lads that did not protest the next time. This will be the second time the processor's f@@ked them over. I glad I do not thing the processor's are.my BFF.

Once again the processor's have proved you wrong. All those idiot's thinking the processor's were not filling there feedlots because they wanted to f@@k over the lads that protested. All those finisher's thinking the processor's were giving them a free run at all those non QA slightly underage cattle in marts.

The Chinese will not be buying restricted feedlot beef.along with U30 month. And guess which feedlots will become unrestricted first. All those finisher's BFF. With friends like that who needs enemies.

wrangler · 14-11-2019 10:45pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's nothing like the kicking the processor's will get from.lads that did not protest the next time. This will be the second time the processor's f@@ked them over. I glad I do not thing the processor's are.my BFF.

Once again the processor's have proved you wrong. All those idiot's thinking the processor's were not filling there feedlots because they wanted to f@@k over the lads that protested. All those finisher's thinking the processor's were giving them a free run at all those non QA slightly underage cattle in marts.

The Chinese will not be buying restricted feedlot beef.along with U30 month. And guess which feedlots will become unrestricted first. All those finisher's BFF. With friends like that who needs enemies.

Your post doesn't make sense, it's all over the place, what does BFF stand for.

Bass Reeves · 14-11-2019 10:47pm

wrangler wrote: »

Your post doesn't make sense, it's all over the place, what does BFF stand for.

Best Friends Forever.

Ah Wrangler you out of the loop

wrangler · 14-11-2019 10:52pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's nothing like the kicking the processor's will get from.lads that did not protest the next time. This will be the second time the processor's f@@ked them over. I glad I do not thing the processor's are.my BFF.

Once again the processor's have proved you wrong. All those idiot's thinking the processor's were not filling there feedlots because they wanted to f@@k over the lads that protested. All those finisher's thinking the processor's were giving them a free run at all those non QA slightly underage cattle in marts.

The Chinese will not be buying restricted feedlot beef.along with U30 month. And guess which feedlots will become unrestricted first. All those finisher's BFF. With friends like that who needs enemies.

What does the highlighted sentences mean,
I wouldn't even bother with what the processors are at now.
Are you just in from the pub or what

Markcheese · 14-11-2019 11:02pm

So what support would proper calf rearing (scale) enterprises need,(or could be given) to get up and going commercially, and what age calves would a guy be reasonably expecting to get on a farm to farm transfer...
Because if a young farmer with a bit of drive is expected to pay a top price up front for a calf a few of days old, then pay a fortune for milk replacer, and capital cost on expensive sheds and equipment, to take a chance on what he'd sell them for at 3 or 4 months then he probably won't bother at all,
I assume there could be a good bit of begrudgery to support for a new "enterprise", from established farmers

Bass Reeves · 14-11-2019 11:19pm

wrangler wrote: »

What does the highlighted sentences mean,
I wouldn't even bother with what the processors are at now.
Are you just in from the pub or what

Well wrangler this week some restricted feedlots are struggling to get cattle killed. Back 4-6 weeks ago all the talk was that processor's were not buying for there own feedlots. There was a lot of strong not QA stores around making handy money. Finisher's but especially restricted finisher's gobbled these up.

We were all informed that processor's were not filling there feedlots in revenge. I was wondering why they did not really fill the feedlots and try to hold the price down right into March.

Now I know the reason processor's own feedlot have been empty since early July. I not sure how long it takes to derestrict feedlots but it they must be very close to it now..

The Chinese want no beef from restricted feedlots. A lot of large finisher's will struggle over the next 6-8 months. They have to stop.buying cattle from TB restricted herds and test to clear there own. Processor's have.kept this information close to there chest. It's a form of insider trading but we will ignore that.

So now a lot of restricted herds are filled with cattle will these be this year's bulls..... left go over30 months and then bought at 30-50c/kg below the rest of the market....... it would not be the first time the larger finisher's were f@@ked over by there BFF

alps · 15-11-2019 12:24am

Markcheese wrote: »

So what support would proper calf rearing (scale) enterprises need,(or could be given) to get up and going commercially, and what age calves would a guy be reasonably expecting to get on a farm to farm transfer...
Because if a young farmer with a bit of drive is expected to pay a top price up front for a calf a few of days old, then pay a fortune for milk replacer, and capital cost on expensive sheds and equipment, to take a chance on what he'd sell them for at 3 or 4 months then he probably won't bother at all,
I assume there could be a good bit of begrudgery to support for a new "enterprise", from established farmers

You will have no problem whatsoever securing a quality supply of calves, produced to your requirements, if you tie up with a number of dairy lads.

You will need certainty on colostrum fed, on breeding, on vaccines and treatment, and the dairy lads will need certainty in your collection frequency, your commitment to follow through with the agreed numbers, and proper disinfection and cleanliness if coming into the dairy farm.

The price of the calf will be very easy to determine if your business plan can show to be viable, the price agreed will be at such a level that will allow you a genuine margin.

Both sides need to get their mind away from what open market calf prices would be running at at the time.

Gawddawggonnit · 15-11-2019 8:15am

Base price wrote: »

Dawg what price is cmr per ton. I remember you posting figures last year and I think there was a €250-€300 per ton difference in the price that we pay here and the one you quoted had a higher skim percentage.
At a recent IFA meeting that I attended a guy from ICBF said that veal will not work in Ireland due to erratic supply, ie a glut for 2 to 3 months and the cost of inputs.

I’m rearing dairy replacements now so I’m using a cheap powder.
It’s called Elvor Dynamic.
23%pr and 18% fats. €1445/t.

If I was at your game I’d be using either a specially designed veal powder or powder for lambs or kids...22-25%pr and 24-28%fat. That’ll put a back on them. It’s around €400/t dearer, but well worth it. They come off the feeder like they’ve come off a cow.

The 6-8 week spring calving system doesn’t help the industry in any way whatsoever, whether it be the processors or the calf/beef trade. Going forward if the processors start making a product other than commodity powder, they’ll need a continuous supply.
In the peak months we’re deducted 2-3cpl and milk produced in the off-peak is payed from that purse...usually around 3-4cpl. That comes to a price difference of 6-7cpl from peak to off-peak production.

The guy from ICBF was really rolling over, wasn’t he?
The cost of inputs should be the same across the EU, ie arbitrage? Ireland should only have transport to consider when competing with continental producers?
Or, was he kowtowing to the dairy industry?
When live exports stop, and they will, what’ll be the plan then?
There’s a certain arrogance within the dairy industry that reckons all other industries should be subservient to it. If the dairy industry is producing all these calves, then they should also finance/support any solutions.
French milk processors are supporting the veal trade atm because it’s primarily a dairy problem.
Without the veal outlet there would be a much reduced dairy output.
Teagasc/IFA etc need to be a little more forward in their thinking, and not be expecting the continentals to solve the issue for them. It’d suit continental dairy farmers if Irish calves never left home.

I’ve to keep all calves born from Jan to May because of Irish calves flooding the market...

Edit. Did Glanbia (etc) exit Greenfield because they realised that the calf st1tstorm was about to surface?
Glanbia would’ve seen that the processors would be eventually responsible to put some structure to the issue and decided fcuk that we’re out the gap?

wrangler · 15-11-2019 8:57am

alps wrote: »

You will have no problem whatsoever securing a quality supply of calves, produced to your requirements, if you tie up with a number of dairy lads.

You will need certainty on colostrum fed, on breeding, on vaccines and treatment, and the dairy lads will need certainty in your collection frequency, your commitment to follow through with the agreed numbers, and proper disinfection and cleanliness if coming into the dairy farm.

The price of the calf will be very easy to determine if your business plan can show to be viable, the price agreed will be at such a level that will allow you a genuine margin.

Both sides need to get their mind away from what open market calf prices would be running at at the time.

If you go by contract rearing costs of €1.40/ day, bull calves cost €1000 to get to 24 mths, what are they worth at that stage........... are they worth €1000 more than they cost as a calf, I don't think so, that's the stark reality

Buford T. Justice XIX · 15-11-2019 11:13am

alps wrote: »

You will have no problem whatsoever securing a quality supply of calves, produced to your requirements, if you tie up with a number of dairy lads.

You will need certainty on colostrum fed, on breeding, on vaccines and treatment, and the dairy lads will need certainty in your collection frequency, your commitment to follow through with the agreed numbers, and proper disinfection and cleanliness if coming into the dairy farm.

The price of the calf will be very easy to determine if your business plan can show to be viable, the price agreed will be at such a level that will allow you a genuine margin.

Both sides need to get their mind away from what open market calf prices would be running at at the time.

I have a bit of that going with the main buyer of my calves. I get about 10 euro more when prices are bad and 10 euro less when prices are good. Like he says, the calves cause him no problems and he knows they all get tubed with colostrum and all vaccines done on time. Other dealers coming in are surprised I turn down their good money but they're not around when prices are bad where my man is always there.

_Brian · 15-11-2019 11:29am

Markcheese wrote: »

So what support would proper calf rearing (scale) enterprises need,(or could be given) to get up and going commercially, and what age calves would a guy be reasonably expecting to get on a farm to farm transfer...
Because if a young farmer with a bit of drive is expected to pay a top price up front for a calf a few of days old, then pay a fortune for milk replacer, and capital cost on expensive sheds and equipment, to take a chance on what he'd sell them for at 3 or 4 months then he probably won't bother at all,
I assume there could be a good bit of begrudgery to support for a new "enterprise", from established farmers

Won’t happen

Can already see calls for subs to support suckler cattle, and BoardBia trying to get a brand established for beef from suckler herds.
If it were 100% pasture fed I could see merit in the brand. But it’s not with much houses 4-6 months every winter getting ration and intensive finishing indoors.

It would be very risky to build a business on Fr Beef since there is such an effort to stack the cards against it.

Siamsa Sessions · 15-11-2019 11:58am

_Brian wrote: »

BoardBia trying to get a brand established for beef from suckler herds.

Yes, they are trying. But whatever about all the fancy imagery and marketing, I just don't see it happening on a national scale.

The "Irish" brand may carry some weight but it's too broad to really command a top price. Maybe it's similar to Japanese cars - we all used to say "Jap imports" were good, but you had to look closer to see what make/model you were really getting.

National brands like Irish beef or Japanese cars can only ever be sold as commodities. You need to create products to add real value. And Bord Bia cannot ever create products - only farmers (with processors/butchers) can.

alps · 15-11-2019 12:32pm

wrangler wrote: »

If you go by contract rearing costs of €1.40/ day, bull calves cost €1000 to get to 24 mths, what are they worth at that stage........... are they worth €1000 more than they cost as a calf, I don't think so, that's the stark reality

It's easy to throw the worthless comment if you're not buying. "Free" calves could be very expensive.

This will pan out either of 2 ways..

You wait for the market to set the price, and you buy from the market.

Or

You team up with a number of dairy lads that you know to be reputable, discuss and see if there is a price relative to product that you can bith agree on..

Otherwise...go to the market as Wrangler suggests and "buy" the calf you'll get for free..

wrangler · 15-11-2019 3:48pm

alps wrote: »

It's easy to throw the worthless comment if you're not buying. "Free" calves could be very expensive.

This will pan out either of 2 ways..

You wait for the market to set the price, and you buy from the market.

Or

You team up with a number of dairy lads that you know to be reputable, discuss and see if there is a price relative to product that you can bith agree on..

Otherwise...go to the market as Wrangler suggests and "buy" the calf you'll get for free..

I asked the question, what's a two year old friesian bullock worth, or bull either

jaymla627 · 15-11-2019 3:57pm

wrangler wrote: »

I asked the question, what's a two year old friesian bullock worth, or bull either

Calf buyer here would be getting them into nearly a 1000euro in the factory even at current price but a ton of meal would be going into the animal over its lifetime, would be killed circa 27 months as bullocks

Base price · 15-11-2019 4:00pm

wrangler wrote: »

I asked the question, what's a two year old friesian bullock worth, or bull either

O grading bulls are 3.20/kg so about €960 before costs at 300kgs dw.

wrangler · 15-11-2019 4:04pm

jaymla627 wrote: »

Calf buyer here would be getting them into nearly a 1000euro in the factory even at current price but a ton of meal would be going into the animal over its lifetime, would be killed circa 27 months as bullocks

I was just making that point that at the contract rearing cost to 24 mths of €1000 would leave no margin and I'm leaving that extra three months free.
€1.40/day wouldn't be great either as you'd have two winters whereas the contract rearers would be getting older calves and only half the second winter

wrangler · 15-11-2019 4:06pm

Base price wrote: »

O grading bulls are 3.20/kg so about €960 before costs at 300kgs dw.

You're obviously doing it, can't be easy to have a margin.
Just edited tosay I used to do Calf to beef, always thought it was the best for lifestyle in farming,
Quiet animals, no night time calving, more free time and more flexible

Base price · 15-11-2019 4:41pm

wrangler wrote: »

You're obviously doing it, can't be easy to have a margin.
Just edited tosay I used to do Calf to beef, always thought it was the best for lifestyle in farming,
Quiet animals, no night time calving, more free time and more flexible

We used to do a good few of them but not anymore. It is important to choose a good FR bull calf otherwise your on a path to loosing money before you start. The last few we had killed out ave of 327.5 and we got €3.25 in August they aged from 26 to 30 months.

Bass Reeves · 15-11-2019 4:53pm

The truth is at present no animal is leaving a margin. 330kg HE and 300 kg AA being slaughtered under 30 months at present prices s
Are hitting 1100 and 1200 approx. No margin in them either. Good HE might hit another 100 more. But in general that is tops at present. We will not even talk about suckler bred cattle.

Next spring lads will have to look at market conditions before buying and also remember there is plenty calves out there.

So what calf represents the best value a goodish FR at 20-50 euro at 20-30 days of age. A HE calf at 250-300 at 15-20 days of age or an AA same age as the HE at 130-200 euro.
IMO the Friesian is the best value Inn that scenario.

Base price · 15-11-2019 5:21pm

There is a strong likelihood of securing additional lairage space in Cherbourg for this Spring although the article doesn't say how much.
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/strong-likelihood-of-additional-calf-capacity-in-cherbourg-508949

Base price · 15-11-2019 5:26pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The truth is at present no animal is leaving a margin. 330kg HE and 300 kg AA being slaughtered under 30 months at present prices s
Are hitting 1100 and 1200 approx. No margin in them either. Good HE might hit another 100 more. But in general that is tops at present. We will not even talk about suckler bred cattle.

Next spring lads will have to look at market conditions before buying and also remember there is plenty calves out there.

So what calf represents the best value a goodish FR at 20-50 euro at 20-30 days of age. A HE calf at 250-300 at 15-20 days of age or an AA same age as the HE at 130-200 euro.
IMO the Friesian is the best value Inn that scenario.

I honestly don't see many dairy farmers keeping FR bull calves for 20 to 30 days let alone taking €20-€50 for them. IMO the only time FR bull calves are held on farms is when the weather is bad and the lorries cannot sail. As I posted above there is a strong likelihood of additional lairaige space in Cherbourg in Spring which should alleviate the problem.

Mooooo · 15-11-2019 6:12pm

Down here anyway I know of very few that are sent before 3 weeks, calves in feb March never make much in bandon with the last year's at that age and it was always the exporters that put a floor on the price. As I said previously I always found it strange that calves in feb would be 80 euros and a calves sold in may June may make 160, same age both fr, when even if prices were reversed the Feb calf is always the better buy. It could well be a case as K.G said that the rest of the countries dairy farmers adjusts to what the west cork lads have been getting for calves for the last 4 of 5 years.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 15-11-2019 7:45pm

Mooooo wrote: »

Down here anyway I know of very few that are sent before 3 weeks, calves in feb March never make much in bandon with the last year's at that age and it was always the exporters that put a floor on the price. As I said previously I always found it strange that calves in feb would be 80 euros and a calves sold in may June may make 160, same age both fr, when even if prices were reversed the Feb calf is always the better buy. It could well be a case as K.G said that the rest of the countries dairy farmers adjusts to what the west cork lads have been getting for calves for the last 4 of 5 years.

Them west Cork lads, a great bunch of lads altogether:D

Markcheese · 15-11-2019 10:56pm

Base price wrote: »

I honestly don't see many dairy farmers keeping FR bull calves for 20 to 30 days let alone taking €20-€50 for them. IMO the only time FR bull calves are held on farms is when the weather is bad and the lorries cannot sail. As I posted above there is a strong likelihood of additional lairaige space in Cherbourg in Spring which should alleviate the problem.

Unless legislation kicks in..! (maybe not in spring 2020)
If the exporters aren't allowed to take and export them till they're a month old or more,
And nó one will take calves that haven't been well cared for and thriving, so they'll be left with the dairy farmer..

K.G. · 15-11-2019 10:59pm

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

Them west Cork lads, a great bunch of lads altogether:D

Oh the love.

Bass Reeves · 15-11-2019 11:05pm

Base price wrote: »

I honestly don't see many dairy farmers keeping FR bull calves for 20 to 30 days let alone taking €20-€50 for them. IMO the only time FR bull calves are held on farms is when the weather is bad and the lorries cannot sail. As I posted above there is a strong likelihood of additional lairaige space in Cherbourg in Spring which should alleviate the problem.

There is a lot of assumptions made on the premise that people have choices. It is interesting that I think it was Cork Marts said the Department should change the calf retension from 10-21 day...at least. Marts themselves may bring in a rule similar to this if calves remain unsold and dairy farmers refuse to bring them home in fear of disease.

Calf export markets are in general are for Fr calves for veal. Lat spring dairy farmers switched to beef breed bulls because expansion is slowing down. Dawg posted already that Irish calves caused issues when bought last spring by veal farmers. Mainly I suspect as they may have been very young on export.

Calf numbers will be higher. Wrangler posted that the expectation is about 50K. Add in that there may be a switch from winter milk as well and 40-60 extra calves in that 10-12 week spring period.

With the present beef price, the treatment of bulls especially Fr bulls over the last 12 months there will more than likely be less Irish buyers around. those that are around will be more choosy and will also have more choice.

Put all of these different pressure points into play and the dairy farmer may have to adapt to holding calves for longer periods before sale,. Teagasc and other bodies have already indicated the same. The day of tagging a calf at birth registering him 2-3 days before hand and expecting to turn up at a mart when the calf is 10 days old on paper is changing fast.

Yes lads will offload the January early February calves easy but when the glut starts in early March lads will be much choosier, and the early lads might decide they wait for value as well.

grassroot1 · 16-11-2019 9:43am

Just listening to countrywide there now,how would most dairy farmers be fixed if they got a TB outbreak and had to hold onto calves for a period?

Sheep breeder · 16-11-2019 10:06am

Base price wrote: »

I honestly don't see many dairy farmers keeping FR bull calves for 20 to 30 days let alone taking €20-€50 for them. IMO the only time FR bull calves are held on farms is when the weather is bad and the lorries cannot sail. As I posted above there is a strong likelihood of additional lairaige space in Cherbourg in Spring which should alleviate the problem.

Not arguing with you, but how many calves are wanted for export into Europe, the demand in Holland has slowed down due to the nitrates issue, the numbers for Poland and Romania etc are increasing also for these markets. The margin of exporters is decreasing and getting paid is becoming a big problem. It’s not long ago cork marts exit the game and are now back dictating how calves should be presented. A family relation in Enniscorthy always says that calves are pricey in that end of the world due to cork marts man pushing price up and you would think there was no calves in Munster.

_Brian · 16-11-2019 10:34am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The truth is at present no animal is leaving a margin. 330kg HE and 300 kg AA being slaughtered under 30 months at present prices s
Are hitting 1100 and 1200 approx. No margin in them either. Good HE might hit another 100 more. But in general that is tops at present. We will not even talk about suckler bred cattle.

Next spring lads will have to look at market conditions before buying and also remember there is plenty calves out there.

So what calf represents the best value a goodish FR at 20-50 euro at 20-30 days of age. A HE calf at 250-300 at 15-20 days of age or an AA same age as the HE at 130-200 euro.
IMO the Friesian is the best value Inn that scenario.

Problem is with so much jex seeping through in the breeding it’s becoming difficult to keep to w runts out of any group and they murder profit across a group of calves.

I see what your saying but the Fr will leave you at the mercy of milling prices or he just won’t do anything, at least on good grass Hex or AAx will grow away cheaper.

Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

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